The relationships between tropical Atlantic sea level variability and major climate indices

Relationships were examined between variability in tropical Atlantic sea level and major climate indices with the use of TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter and island tide gauge data with the aim of learning more about the external influences on the variability of the tropical Atlantic ocean. Possible important connections were found between indices related to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the sea levels in all three tropical regions (north, equatorial, and south), although the existence of only one major ENSO event within the decade of available altimetry means that a more complete investigation of the ENSO-dependence of Atlantic sea level changes has to await for the compilation of longer data sets. An additional link was found with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in the equatorial region, this perhaps surprising observation is probably an artifact of the similarity between IOD and ENSO time series in the 1990s. No evidence was obtained for significant correlations between tropical Atlantic sea level and North Atlantic Oscillation or Antarctic Oscillation Index. The most intriguing relationship observed was between the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and sea level in a band centered approximately on 10°S. A plausible explanation for the relationship is lacking, but possibilities for further research are suggested.     

Which way to the Moon?

Andrew Ball and Ian Crawford report on NASA's planning for a return to the Moon, with some thoughts on opportunities open to the UK.     

Enhanced application of root‐reinforcement algorithms for bank‐stability modeling

Riparian vegetation is known to exert a number of mechanical and hydrologic controls on bank stability. In particular, plant roots provide mechanical reinforcement to a soil matrix due to the different responses of soils and roots to stress. Root reinforcement is largely a function of the strength of the roots crossing potential shear planes, and the number and diameter of such roots. However, previous bank stability models have been constrained by limited field data pertaining to the spatial and temporal variability of root networks within stream banks. In this paper, a method is developed to use root‐architecture data to derive parameters required for modeling temporal and spatial changes in root reinforcement. Changes in root numbers over time were assumed to follow a sigmoidal curve, which commonly represents the growth rates of organisms. Regressions for numbers of roots crossing potential shear planes over time showed small variations between species during the juvenile growth phase, but extrapolation led to large variations in root numbers by the time the senescent phase of the sigmoidal growth curve had been reached. In light of potential variability in the field data, the mean number of roots crossing a potential shear plane at each year of tree growth was also calculated using data from all species and an additional sigmoidal regression was run. After 30 years the mean number of roots predicted to cross a 1 m shear plane was 484, compared with species‐specific curves whose values ranged from 240 roots for black willow trees to 890 roots for western cottonwood trees. In addition, the effect of spatial variations in rooting density with depth on stream‐bank stability was modeled using the bank stability and toe erosion model (BSTEM). Three root distributions, all approximating the same average root reinforcement (5 kPa) over the top 1 m of the bank profile, were modeled, but with differing vertical distributions (concentrated near surface, non‐linear decline with depth, uniform over top meter). It was found that stream‐bank F_S varied the most when the proportion of the failure plane length to the depth of the rooting zone was greatest. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An Upper Pliocene coarse pumice breccia generated by a shallow submarine explosive eruption,Milos, Greece

The Filakopi Pumice Breccia (FPB) is a very well exposed, Pliocene volcaniclastic unit on Milos, Greece, and has a minimum bulk volume of 1 km³. It consists of three main units: (A) basal lithic breccia (4–8 m) mainly composed of angular to subangular, andesitic and dacitic clasts up to 2.6 m in diameter; (B) very thickly bedded, poorly sorted pumice breccia (16–17 m); and (C) very thick, reversely graded, grain-supported, coarse pumice breccia (6.5–20 m), at the top. The depositional setting is well constrained as shallow marine (up to a few hundred metres) by overlying fossiliferous and bioturbated mudstone. This large volume of fine pumice clasts is interpreted to be the product of an explosive eruption from a submarine vent because: (1) pumice clasts are the dominant component; (2) the coarse pumice clasts (>64 mm) have complete quenched margins; (3) very large (>1 m) pumice clasts are common; (4) overall, the formation shows good hydraulic sorting; and (5) a significant volume of ash was deposited together with the coarsest pyroclasts.The bed forms in units A and B suggest deposition from lithic-rich and pumiceous, respectively, submarine gravity currents. In unit C, the coarse (up to 6.5 m) pumice clasts are set in matrix that grades upwards from diffusely stratified, fine (1–2 cm) pumice clasts at the base to laminated shard rich mud at the top. The coarse pumice clasts in unit C were settled from suspension and the framework was progressively infilled by fine pumice clasts from waning traction currents and then by water-settled ash. The FPB displays important features of the products of submarine explosive eruptions that result from the ambient fluid being seawater, rather than volcanic gas or air. In particular, submarine pyroclastic deposits are characterised by the presence of very coarse juvenile pumice clasts, pumice clasts with complete quenched rims, and good hydraulic sorting.Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available for this article if you access the article at . A link in the frame on the left on that page takes you directly to the supplementary material.Editorial responsibility: J. Donelly-Nolan     

A regime shift in sediment export from a coastal watershed during a record wet winter,California: Implications for landscape response to hydroclimatic extremes

Small, steep watersheds are prolific sediment sources from which sediment flux is highly sensitive to climatic changes. Storm intensity and frequency are widely expected to increase during the 21st century, and so assessing the response of small, steep watersheds to extreme rainfall is essential to understanding landscape response to climate change. During record winter rainfall in 2016–2017, the San Lorenzo River, coastal California, had nine flow peaks representing 2–10‐year flood magnitudes. By the third flood, fluvial suspended sediment showed a regime shift to greater and coarser sediment supply, coincident with numerous landslides in the watershed. Even with no singular catastrophic flood, these flows exported more than half as much sediment as had a 100‐year flood 35 years earlier, substantially enlarging the nearshore delta. Annual sediment load in 2017 was an order of magnitude greater than during an average‐rainfall year, and 500‐fold greater than in a recent drought. These anomalous sediment inputs are critical to the coastal littoral system, delivering enough sediment, sometimes over only a few days, to maintain beaches for several years. Future projections of megadroughts punctuated by major atmospheric‐river storm activity suggest that interannual sediment‐yield variations will become more extreme than today in the western USA, with potential consequences for coastal management, ecosystems, and water‐storage capacity. The occurrence of two years with major sediment export over the past 35 years that were not associated with extremes of the El Niño Southern Oscillation or Pacific Decadal Oscillation suggests caution in interpreting climatic signals from marine sedimentary deposits derived from small, steep, coastal watersheds, to avoid misinterpreting the frequencies of those cycles. Published 2018. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.     

Iron and Manganese in Groundwater: Using Kriging and GIS to Locate High Concentrations in Buncombe County,North Carolina

For health, economic, and aesthetic reasons, allowable concentrations (as suggested by the United States Environmental Protection Agency) of the secondary contaminants iron (Fe) and manganese (Mn) found present in drinking water are 0.3 and 0.05 mg/L, respectively. Water samples taken from private drinking wells in rural communities within Buncombe County, North Carolina contain concentrations of these metals that exceed secondary water quality criteria. This study predicted the spatial distribution of Fe and Mn in the county, and evaluated the effect of site environmental factors (bedrock geology, ground elevation, saprolite thickness, and drinking water well depth) in controlling the variability of Fe and Mn in groundwater. A statistically significant correlation between Fe and Mn concentrations, attributable to bedrock geology, was identified. Prediction models were created using ordinary kriging and cokriging interpolation techniques to estimate the presence of Fe and Mn in groundwater where direct measurements are not possible. This same procedure can be used to estimate the trend of other contaminants in the groundwater in different areas with similar hydrogeological settings.     

A Paddock to reef monitoring and modelling framework for the Great Barrier Reef: Paddock and catchment component

Targets for improvements in water quality entering the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) have been set through the Reef Water Quality Protection Plan (Reef Plan). To measure and report on progress towards the targets set a program has been established that combines monitoring and modelling at paddock through to catchment and reef scales; the Paddock to Reef Integrated Monitoring, Modelling and Reporting Program (Paddock to Reef Program). This program aims to provide evidence of links between land management activities, water quality and reef health. Five lines of evidence are used: the effectiveness of management practices to improve water quality; the prevalence of management practice adoption and change in catchment indicators; long-term monitoring of catchment water quality; paddock & catchment modelling to provide a relative assessment of progress towards meeting targets; and finally marine monitoring of GBR water quality and reef ecosystem health. This paper outlines the first four lines of evidence.     

Is rainfall intensity significant in the rainfall–runoff process within tropical rainforests of northeast Queensland? The Hewlett regression analyses revisited

Following the statistical analyses of long‐term rainfall‐runoff records from research basins in humid temperate latitudes, Hewlett and co‐workers extended the global challenge to disprove their findings that rainfall intensity was non‐significant. This paper responds to Hewlett's challenge as no preceding analyses have involved forested basins in a tropical cyclone‐prone area. Based on a 7 year rainfall‐runoff record, quickflow (QF), peak flow (QP) and quickflow response ratios (QRR) were regressed as dependent variables against rainfall parameters (intensity, P_i, amount, P), storm duration, D and antecedent flow, I. These data sets were categorised into total streamflow (Q) classes and stratified into three seasons, (monsoon, post‐monsoon and dry) for forested and cleared catchments. Where rainfall variable collinearity met acceptable levels, the addition of P_i to regression models including P, D, I contributed up to 9% and 66% of the respective variations in quickflow and peak flow. For the highest Q storm classes (monsoon), P_i alone accounted for up to 67% and 91% of the variation in Q_F and Q_P respectively and was the dominant influence on Q_P for all seasons. The very high rainfall intensities experienced in the monsoon season is a causal factor why these results differ from those of other research drainage basins. Surprisingly, P_i continued to have a significant influence on Q_F for dry season classes when less‐intense rainfall occurs. Further the results were similar for both catchments across all seasons. P was the dominant independent variable affecting Q_F above a threshold Q of 50 mm (monsoon), as rainfall contributes directly to saturation overland flow and return flow under saturated conditions. Further although QRR increased with increasing Q for each season, the regression results for that parameter were poor possibly due to the non‐linearity of the rainfall‐runoff relationship. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.