Spectral Characteristics and Correction of Long-Term Eddy-Covariance Measurements Over Two Mixed Hardwood Forests in Non-Flat Terrain

We present turbulence spectra and cospectra derived from long-term eddy-covariancemeasurements (nearly 40,000 hourly data over three to four years) and the transferfunctions of closed-path infrared gas analyzers over two mixed hardwood forests inthe mid-western U.S.A. The measurement heights ranged from 1.3 to 2.1 times themean tree height, and peak vegetation area index (VAI) was 3.5 to 4.7; the topographyat both sites deviates from ideal flat terrain. The analysis follows the approach ofKaimal et al. (Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc. 98, 563–589, 1972) whose results were based upon 15 hours of measurements atthree heights in the Kansas experiment over flatter and smoother terrain. Both thespectral and cospectral constants and stability functions for normalizing and collapsingspectra and cospectra in the inertial subrange were found to be different from those ofKaimal et al. In unstable conditions, we found that an appropriate stabilityfunction for the non-dimensional dissipation of turbulent kinetic energy is of the form ₍₎ = (1 - b^-)^-1/4 - c^-, where representsthe non-dimensional stability parameter. In stable conditions, a non-linear functionG_xy() = 1 + b_xy^c _xy (c_xy < 1) was found to benecessary to collapse cospectra in the inertial subrange. The empirical cospectralmodels of Kaimal et al. were modified to fit the somewhat more (neutraland unstable) or less (stable) sharply peaked scalar cospectra observed over forestsusing the appropriate cospectral constants and non-linear stability functions. Theempirical coefficients in the stability functions and in the cospectral models varywith measurement height and seasonal changes in VAI. The seasonal differencesare generally larger at the Morgan Monroe State Forest site (greater peak VAI) andcloser to the canopy.The characteristics of transfer functions of the closed-path infrared gas analysersthrough long-tubes for CO₂ and water vapour fluxes were studied empirically. This was done by fitting the ratio between normalized cospectra of CO₂ or watervapour fluxes and those of sensible heat to the transfer function of a first-order sensor.The characteristic time constant for CO₂ is much smaller than that for water vapour. The time constant for water vapour increases greatly with aging tubes. Three methods were used to estimate the flux attenuations and corrections; from June through August, the attenuations of CO₂ fluxes are about 3–4% during the daytime and 6–10% at night on average. For the daytime latent heat flux (Q_E), the attenuations are foundto vary from less than 10% for newer tubes to over 20% for aged tubes. Correctionsto Q_E led to increases in the ratio (Q_H + Q_E)/(Q^* - Q_G) by about 0.05 to0.19 (Q_H is sensible heat flux, Q^* is net radiation and Q_G is soil heat flux),and thus are expected to have an important impact on the assessment of energy balanceclosure.     

Forecasting Monsoon Precipitation Using Artificial Neural Networks

This paper explores the application of Artificial Intelligent (AI) techniques for climate forecast. It pres ents a study on modelling the monsoon precipitation forecast by means of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). Using the historical data of the total amount of summer rainfall over the Delta Area of Yangtze River in China, three ANNs models have been developed to forecast the monsoon precipitation in the corre sponding area one year, five-year, and ten-year forward respectively. Performances of the models have been validated using a ＇new＇ data set that has not been exposed to the models during the processes of model development and test. The experiment results are promising, indicating that the proposed ANNs models have good quality in terms of the accuracy, stability and generalisation ability.     

A Method for Estimating the Cost of CO2 Mitigation through Afforestation

The Kyoto Protocol allows Annex I countries to use afforestation (theconversion of non-forest landto forest) to meet emissions reduction targets. We present a new method forestimating the cost of CO₂mitigation through afforestation based on econometric models of land use. Landuse models are developed from dataon observed land allocation decisions and quantify the relationship betweenthe share of land in forest and the netreturns to forestry, among other land use determinants. The econometricapproach measures the actual responsesby landowners to observed changes in net returns, in contrast to earlierstudies in which landowner responses aredictated by the researcher. Models are estimated for Maine, South Carolina,and Wisconsin. The estimated modelsare used to simulate subsidies for afforestation, which imply increases inforest area and net reductions inatmospheric CO₂ concentrations. Average cost measures – totalsubsidies divided by total carbon sequestered –are derived for afforestation programs with and without timber harvesting. Theuse of econometric land use modelsin integrated assessments of climate change is explored. We model the effectson land use patterns and the costsof CO₂ mitigation of changes in the net returns to agricultureinduced by climate change.     

Stratospheric circulation in seasonal forecasting models: implications for seasonal prediction

Accurate seasonal forecasts rely on the presence of low frequency, predictable signals in the climate system which have a sufficiently well understood and significant impact on the atmospheric circulation. In the Northern European region, signals associated with seasonal scale variability such as ENSO, North Atlantic SST anomalies and the North Atlantic Oscillation have not yet proven sufficient to enable satisfactorily skilful dynamical seasonal forecasts. The winter-time circulations of the stratosphere and troposphere are highly coupled. It is therefore possible that additional seasonal forecasting skill may be gained by including a realistic stratosphere in models. In this study we assess the ability of five seasonal forecasting models to simulate the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical winter-time stratospheric circulation. Our results show that all of the models have a polar night jet which is too weak and displaced southward compared to re-analysis data. It is shown that the models underestimate the number, magnitude and duration of periods of anomalous stratospheric circulation. Despite the poor representation of the general circulation of the stratosphere, the results indicate that there may be a detectable tropospheric response following anomalous circulation events in the stratosphere. However, the models fail to exhibit any predictability in their forecasts. These results highlight some of the deficiencies of current seasonal forecasting models with a poorly resolved stratosphere. The combination of these results with other recent studies which show a tropospheric response to stratospheric variability, demonstrates a real prospect for improving the skill of seasonal forecasts.     

SUMMER MEASUREMENTS OF DISSOLVED ION CONCENTRATIONS IN ALPINE STREAMS,BLANCA PEAK REGION,COLORADO*

Chemical weathering is commonly assumed to be negligible in the denudation of alpine landscapes. Spot samples of dissolved ions from alpine streams on the Blanca Massif had minimum average concentrations in 1978 of 35.53 ppm (range: 14.9–75.6 ppm) and in 1979, 20.23 ppm (range: 7.35–35.0 ppm). Correlations between the variation in the concentration of dissolved ions (silica, pH, and minimum ion concentration) and the elevations and drainage-basin areas of sample sites were significant at the 0.05 level.     

Digital effects in the spatial economy of film: towards a research agenda

A new assemblage of digital technologies, organized around compressed software formats and broadband Internet infrastructures, is reconfiguring the motion picture industry. In this paper, I review the impacts of digitization upon the spatial economy of film in the United States via a commodity chain framework. The discussion raises some important themes for conceptual debate in economic geography.