Stochastic Analysis of Core Discing for Estimation of In Situ Stress

Extraction of diamond-drilled core from high stress environments can result in the core breaking into discs. Through four decades of research, a variety of computational tools and experimental approaches have been used to analyze the details of the failure processes leading to core-discing-type breakage of diamond-drilled cores. One motivation for this research is to use these calculations for stress estimation based on, for example, the disc length (i.e., thickness) measured in a particular core. This application requires that the core discs lengths do not deviate much from an average or typical value. This paper presents a stochastic approach, based on analyzis of the entire distribution of disc lengths, that provides a basis for application of existing core discing models even when it is unclear how to define a typical disc length, for example when the disc length distribution is highly non-Gaussian. The viability of the stochastic approach is demonstrated by comparison with data collected from 900 m of core extracted from a South Australian granite formation.     

High-temperature deformation during continental-margin subduction & exhumation: The ultrahigh-pressure Western Gneiss Region of Norway

A new dataset for the high-pressure to ultrahigh-pressure Western Gneiss Region allows the definition of distinct structural and petrological domains. Much of the study area is an E-dipping homocline with E-plunging lineations that exposes progressively deeper, more strongly deformed, more eclogite-rich structural levels westward. Although eclogites crop out across the WGR, Scandian deformation is weak and earlier structures are well preserved in the southeastern half of the study area. The Scandian reworking increases westward, culminating in strong Scandian fabrics with only isolated pockets of older structures; the dominant Scandian deformation was coaxial E–W stretching. The sinistrally sheared Møre–Trøndelag Fault Complex and Nordfjord Mylonitic Shear Zone bound these rocks to the north and south. There was moderate top-E, amphibolite-facies deformation associated with translation of the allochthons over the basement along its eastern edge, and the Nordfjord–Sogn Detachment Zone underwent strong lower amphibolite-facies to greenschist-facies top-W shearing. A northwestward increase in exhumation-related melting is indicated by leucosomes with hornblende, plagioclase, and Scandian sphene. In the western 2/3 of the study area, exhumation-related, amphibolite-facies symplectite formation in quartzofeldspathic gneiss postdated most Scandian deformation; further deformation was restricted to slip along biotite-rich foliation planes and minor local folding. That the Western Gneiss Region quartzofeldspathic gneiss exhibits a strong gradient in degree of deformation, implies that continental crust in general need not undergo pervasive deformation during subduction.     

A comprehensive numerical simulation of Io’s sublimation-driven atmosphere

Io’s sublimation-driven atmosphere is modeled using the direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method. These rarefied gas dynamics simulations improve upon earlier models by using a three-dimensional domain encompassing the entire planet computed in parallel. The effects of plasma heating, planetary rotation, inhomogeneous surface frost, molecular residence time of SO₂ on the exposed (non-volatile) rocky surface, and surface temperature distribution are investigated. Circumplanetary flow is predicted to develop from the warm dayside toward the cooler nightside. Io’s rotation leads to a highly asymmetric frost surface temperature distribution (due to the frost’s high thermal inertia) which results in circumplanetary flow that is not axi-symmetric about the subsolar point. The non-equilibrium thermal structure of the atmosphere, specifically vibrational and rotational temperatures, is also examined. Plasma heating is found to significantly inflate the atmosphere on both the dayside and nightside. The plasma energy flux causes high temperatures at high altitudes but plasma energy depletion through the dense gas column above the warmest frost permits gas temperatures cooler than the surface at low altitudes. A frost map (Douté, S., Schmitt, B., Lopes-Gautier, R., Carlson, R., Soderblom, L., Shirley, J., and the Galileo NIMS Team [2001]. Icarus 149, 107-132) is used to control the sublimated flux of SO₂ which can result in inhomogeneous column densities that vary by nearly a factor of four for the same surface temperature. A short residence time for SO₂ molecules on the “rock” component is found to smooth lateral atmospheric inhomogeneities caused by variations in the surface frost distribution, creating an atmosphere that looks nearly identical to one with uniform frost coverage. A longer residence time is found to agree better with mid-infrared observations (Spencer, J.R., Lellouch, E., Richter, M.J., López-Valverde, M.A., Jessup, K.L, Greathouse, T.K., Flaud, J. [2005]. Icarus 176, 283-304) and reproduce the observed anti-jovian/sub-jovian column density asymmetry. The computed peak dayside column density for Io assuming a surface frost temperature of 115 K agrees with those suggested by Lyman-α observations (Feaga, L.M., McGrath, M., Feldman, P.D. [2009]. Icarus 201, 570-584). On the other hand, the peak dayside column density at 120 K is a factor of five larger and is higher than the upper range of observations (Jessup, K.L., Spencer, J.R., Ballester, G.E., Howell, R.R., Roesler, F., Vigel, M., Yelle, R. [2004]. Icarus 169, 197-215; Spencer et al., 2005).     

Observations of metallic species in Mercury’s exosphere

From observations of the metallic species sodium (Na), potassium (K), and magnesium (Mg) in Mercury’s exosphere, we derive implications for source and loss processes. All metallic species observed exhibit a distribution and/or line width characteristic of high to extreme temperature - tens of thousands of degrees K. The temperatures of refractory species, including magnesium and calcium, indicate that the source process for the atoms observed in the tail and near-planet exosphere are consistent with ion sputtering and/or impact vaporization of a molecule with subsequent dissociation into the atomic form. The extended Mg tail is consistent with a surface abundance of 5-8% Mg by number, if 30% of impact-vaporized Mg remains as MgO and half of the impact vapor condenses. Globally, ion sputtering is not a major source of Mg, but locally the sputtered source can be larger than the impact vapor source. We conclude that the Na and K in Mercury’s exosphere can be derived from a regolith composition similar to that of Luna 16 soil (or Apollo 17 orange glass), in which the abundance by number is 0.0027 (0.0028) for Na and 0.0006 (0.0045) for K.     

Boulders and ponds on the Asteroid 433 Eros

There are ∼300 features on the Asteroid 433 Eros that morphologically resemble ponds (flat-floored and sharply embaying the bounding depression in which they sit). Because boulders on Eros are apparently eroding in place and because ponds with associated boulders tend to be larger than ponds without blocks, we propose that ponds form from thermally disaggregated and seismically flattened boulder material, under the assumption that repeated day/night cycling causes material fatigue that leads to erosion of the boulders. Results from a simple boulder emplacement/thermal erosion model with boulders emplaced in a few discrete events (i.e., large impacts) match well the observed size distribution. Under this scenario, the subtle color differences of ponds (somewhat bluer than the rest of the surface) might be due to some combination of less space-weathered material and density stratification of silicate-rich chondrules and more metal-rich matrix from a disaggregated boulder. Volume estimates of ponds derived from NEAR Laser Rangefinder profiles are consistent with what can be supplied by boulders. Ponds are also observed to be concentrated in regions of low slope and high elevation, which suggests the presence of a less mobile regolith and thus a contrast in the resistance to seismic shaking between the pond material and the material that makes up the bounding depression. Future tests include shake-table experiments and temperature cycling (fatigue) of ordinary chondrites to test the thermal erosion mechanism.     

Penetrometry of granular and moist planetary surface materials: Application to the Huygens landing site on Titan

The Huygens probe landed on the then unknown surface of Titan in January 2005. A small, protruding penetrometer, part of the Surface Science Package (SSP), was pushed into the surface material measuring the mechanical resistance of the ground as the probe impacted the landing site. We present laboratory penetrometry into room temperature surface analogue materials using a replica penetrometer to investigate further the nature of Titan’s surface and examine the sensor’s capabilities. The results are then compared to the flight instrument’s signature and suggest the Titan surface substrate material consists of sand-sized particles with a mean grain size ～2 mm. A possible thin 7 mm coating with mechanical properties similar to terrestrial snow may overlie this substrate, although due to the limited data we are unable to detect any further layering or grading within the near-surface material. The unusual weakening with depth of the signature returned from Titan has, to date, only been reproduced using a damp sand target that becomes progressively wetter with depth, and supports the suggestion that the surface may consist of a damp and cohesive material with interstitial liquid contained between its grains. Comparison with terrestrial analogues highlights the unusual nature of the landing site material.     

Navigating the dilemmas of climate policy in Europe: evidence from policy evaluation studies

Climate change is widely recognised as a ‘wicked’ policy problem. Agreeing and implementing governance responses is proving extremely difficult. Policy makers in many jurisdictions now emphasise their ambition to govern using the best available evidence. One obvious source of such evidence is the evaluations of the performance of existing policies. But to what extent do these evaluations provide insights into the difficult dilemmas that governors typically encounter? We address this question by reviewing the content of 262 evaluation studies of European climate policies in the light of six kinds of dilemma found in the governance literature. We are interested in what these studies say about the performance of European climate policies and in their capacity to inform evidence-based policy-making. We find that the evaluations do arrive at common findings: that climate change is framed as a problem of market and/or state failure; that voluntary measures tend to be ineffective; that market-based instruments tend to be regressive; that EU-level policies have driven climate policies in the latecomer EU Member States; and that lack of monitoring and weak enforcement are major obstacles to effective policy implementation. However, we also conclude that the evidence base these studies represent is surprisingly weak for such a high profile area. There is too little systematic climate policy evaluation work in the EU to support systematic evidence-based policy making. This reduces the scope for sound policy making in the short run and is a constraint to policy learning in the longer term.     

Analysis of soil moisture trends in the Salt River watershed of central Arizona

In this investigation, we generate estimates of soil moisture for the Salt River basin on which the expanding city of Phoenix, Arizona relies upon for nearly half of its water supply. While previous empirical studies have produced mixed results concerning recent drought trends in the southwestern USA, our results support the many numerical climate models which predict that this region will become drier in response to the buildup of greenhouse gases. Over the period 1895–2007, we found that soil moisture levels revealed no significant change. However, if we restrict the study to the period 1980–2007, soil moisture levels have decreased at a highly statistically significant rate. We could find little evidence that the trend is associated with variations in El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Increasing surface pressure over our study area during the latter half of the twentieth century may be a catalyst for the drier conditions.     

Influences of upwelling and downwelling winds on red tide bloom dynamics in Monterey Bay,California

It has recently been shown that inner shelf waters of NE Monterey Bay, California function as an “extreme bloom incubator”, frequently developing dense “red tide” blooms that can rapidly spread. Located within the California Current upwelling system, this open bay is strongly influenced by oceanographic dynamics resulting from cycles of upwelling favorable winds and their relaxation and/or reversal. Different wind forcing causes influx of different water types that originate outside the bay: cold nutrient-rich waters during upwelling and warm nutrient-poor waters during relaxation. In this study, we examine how the bay's bloom incubation area can interact with highly variable circulation to cause red tide spreading, dispersal and retention. This examination of processes is supported by satellite, airborne and in situ observations of a major dinoflagellate bloom during August and September of 2004. Remote sensing of high spatial, temporal and spectral resolution shows that the bloom originated in the NE bay, where it was highly concentrated in a narrow band along a thermal front. Upwelling circulation rapidly spread part of the bloom, mixing cool waters of an upwelling filament with warm bloom source waters as they spread. Vertical migration of the dinoflagellate populations was mapped by autonomous underwater vehicle surveys through the spreading bloom. Following bloom expansion, a two-day wind reversal forced intrusion of warm offshore waters that dispersed much of the bloom. Upwelling winds then resumed, and the bloom was further dispersed by an influx of cold water. Throughout these oceanographic responses to changing winds, an intense bloom persisted in sheltered waters of the NE bay, where extreme blooms are most frequent and intense. Microscopic examination of surface phytoplankton samples from the central bay showed that spreading of the bloom from the NE bay and mixing with regional water masses resulted in significantly increased abundance of dinoflagellates and decreased abundance of diatoms. Similar dinoflagellate bloom incubation sites are indicated in other areas of the California Current system and other coastal upwelling systems. Through frequent bloom development and along-coast transports, relatively small incubation sites may significantly influence larger regions of the coastal marine ecosystems in which they reside.