Finite Element Analysis of Fault Bend Influence on Stick-Slip Instability along an Intra-Plate Fault

— Earthquakes have been recognized as resulting from stick-slip frictional instabilities along the faults between deformable rocks. A three-dimensional finite-element code for modeling the nonlinear frictional contact behaviors between deformable bodies with the node-to-point contact element strategy has been developed and applied here to investigate the fault geometry influence on the nucleation and development process of the stick-slip instability along an intra-plate fault through a typical fault bend model, which has a pre-cut fault that is artificially bent by an angle of 5.6° at the fault center. The numerical results demonstrate that the geometry of the fault significantly affects nucleation, termination and restart of the stick-slip instability along the intra-plate fault, and all these instability phenomena can be well simulated using the current finite-element algorithm.     

Spatio-temporal Scanning and Statistical Test of the Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) Model Using Australian Earthquake Data

— The Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) preceding earthquakes with magnitude above 5 in Australia that occurred during the last 20 years was analyzed to test the Critical Point Hypothesis. Twelve earthquakes in the catalog were chosen based on a criterion for the number of nearby events. Results show that seven sequences with numerous events recorded leading up to the main earthquake exhibited accelerating moment release. Two occurred near in time and space to other earthquakes preceded by AMR. The remaining three sequences had very few events in the catalog so the lack of AMR detected in the analysis may be related to catalog incompleteness. Spatio-temporal scanning of AMR parameters shows that 80% of the areas in which AMR occurred experienced large events. In areas of similar background seismicity with no large events, 10 out of 12 cases exhibit no AMR, and two others are false alarms where AMR was observed but no large event followed. The relationship between AMR and Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) was studied. Both methods predict similar critical region sizes, however, the critical point time using AMR is slightly earlier than the time of the critical point LURR anomaly.     

Fluoride occurrence in publicly supplied drinking water in Estonia

A study was undertaken to examine the content and spatial distribution of fluoride in drinking water. Water samples (735) from public water systems covering all Estonian territory were analysed using SPADNS method. In order to specify the natural source of fluoride, the chemistry data from five aquifer systems utilised for water supply were included into the study. Fluoride concentrations in tap water, to a great extent, ranged from 0.01 to 6.95 mg/l. Drinking water in southern Estonia, where terrigenous Middle-Devonian aquifer system is exploited, has a fluoride concentration lower than recommended level (0.5 mg/l), thus promoting susceptibility to dental caries. The western part of the country is supplied by water with excess fluoride content (1.5–6.9 mg/l). Groundwater abstracted for drinking purposes originates from Ordovician and Silurian carbonate rocks. The content of fluoride in Silurian–Ordovician aquifer system is associated with the groundwater abstraction depth and the main controlling factors of dissolved fluoride are the pH value and the chemical type of water.     

Construction of an Intraplate Fault System Model of South Australia, and Simulation Tool for the iSERVO Institute Seed Project

To foster ongoing international cooperation beyond ACES (APEC Cooperation for Earthquake Simulation) on the simulation of solid earth phenomena, agreement was reached to work towards establishment of a frontier international research institute for simulating the solid earth: iSERVO = International Solid Earth Research Virtual Observatory institute (http://www.iservo.edu.au). This paper outlines a key Australian contribution towards the iSERVO institute seed project, this is the construction of: (1) a typical intraplate fault system model using practical fault system data of South Australia (i.e., SA interacting fault model), which includes data management and editing, geometrical modeling and mesh generation; and (2) a finite-element based software tool, which is built on our long-term and ongoing effort to develop the R-minimum strategy based finite-element computational algorithm and software tool for modelling three-dimensional nonlinear frictional contact behavior between multiple deformable bodies with the arbitrarily-shaped contact element strategy. A numerical simulation of the SA fault system is carried out using this software tool to demonstrate its capability and our efforts towards seeding the iSERVO Institute.     

Long-range Automaton Models of Earthquakes: Power-law Accelerations,Correlation Evolution,and Mode-switching

—?We introduce a conceptual model for the in-plane physics of an earthquake fault. The model employs cellular automaton techniques to simulate tectonic loading, earthquake rupture, and strain redistribution. The impact of a hypothetical crustal elastodynamic Green's function is approximated by a long-range strain redistribution law with a r ^?p dependance. We investigate the influence of the effective elastodynamic interaction range upon the dynamical behaviour of the model by conducting experiments with different values of the exponent (p). The results indicate that this model has two distinct, stable modes of behaviour. The first mode produces a characteristic earthquake distribution with moderate to large events preceeded by an interval of time in which the rate of energy release accelerates. A correlation function analysis reveals that accelerating sequences are associated with a systematic, global evolution of strain energy correlations within the system. The second stable mode produces Gutenberg-Richter statistics, with near-linear energy release and no significant global correlation evolution. A model with effectively short-range interactions preferentially displays Gutenberg-Richter behaviour. However, models with long-range interactions appear to switch between the characteristic and GR modes. As the range of elastodynamic interactions is increased, characteristic behaviour begins to dominate GR behaviour. These models demonstrate that evolution of strain energy correlations may occur within systems with a fixed elastodynamic interaction range. Supposing that similar mode-switching dynamical behaviour occurs within earthquake faults then intermediate-term forecasting of large earthquakes may be feasible for some earthquakes but not for others, in alignment with certain empirical seismological observations. Further numerical investigation of dynamical models of this type may lead to advances in earthquake forecasting research and theoretical seismology.     

Méthodologie de l'extraction des hydrocarbures aromatiques polycycliques. Application à des sédiments de la lagune de Bizerte (Tunisie)Methodology of extraction of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. Application to sediment from the Bizerte Lagoon (Tunisia)

The marine environment is very complex, with several important chemical, biological, and sedimentological interactions. Sediments constitute a reservoir for numerous pollutants, including polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). PAHs are known by their mutagenic and/or carcinogenic effect. This study evaluates contamination levels in Bizerte Lagoon with respect to PAHs. The extraction efficiency of PAHs from sediment has been evaluated using Soxhlet or ultrasonic procedures, based on the recovery of an internal standard (9,10-dihydroanthracene). Several PAHs were found, including sixteen that are reported in the priority list of pollutants of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). PAHs analysis was carried out by GC–FID and GC–MS for 16 samples sampled in two seasons: summer and winter. Results permit an assessment of PAHs pollution in the Bizerte Lagoon. To cite this article: N. Mzoughi et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 893–901.     

Simulation of the Influence of Rate- and State-dependent Friction on the Macroscopic Behavior of Complex Fault Zones with the Lattice Solid Model

-- In order to understand the earthquake nucleation process, we need to understand the effective frictional behavior of faults with complex geometry and fault gouge zones. One important aspect of this is the interaction between the friction law governing the behavior of the fault on the microscopic level and the resulting macroscopic behavior of the fault zone. Numerical simulations offer a possibility to investigate the behavior of faults on many different scales and thus provide a means to gain insight into fault zone dynamics on scales which are not accessible to laboratory experiments. Numerical experiments have been performed to investigate the influence of the geometric configuration of faults with a rate- and state-dependent friction at the particle contacts on the effective frictional behavior of these faults. The numerical experiments are designed to be similar to laboratory experiments by Dieterich and Kilgore (1994) in which a slide-hold-slide cycle was performed between two blocks of material and the resulting peak friction was plotted vs. holding time. Simulations with a flat fault without a fault gouge have been performed to verify the implementation. These have shown close agreement with comparable laboratory experiments. The simulations performed with a fault containing fault gouge have demonstrated a strong dependence of the critical slip distance D_c on the roughness of the fault surfaces and are in qualitative agreement with laboratory experiments.     

Simulation of the Load-Unload Response Ratio and Critical Sensitivity in the Lattice Solid Model

— The Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is an intermediate-term earthquake prediction approach that has shown considerable promise. It involves calculating the ratio of a specified energy release measure during loading and unloading where loading and unloading periods are determined from the earth tide induced perturbations in the Coulomb Failure Stress on optimally oriented faults. In the lead-up to large earthquakes, high LURR values are frequently observed a few months or years prior to the event. These signals may have a similar origin to the observed accelerating seismic moment release (AMR) prior to many large earthquakes or may be due to critical sensitivity of the crust when a large earthquake is imminent. As a first step towards studying the underlying physical mechanism for the LURR observations, numerical studies are conducted using the particle based lattice solid model (LSM) to determine whether LURR observations can be reproduced. The model is initialized as a heterogeneous 2-D block made up of random-sized particles bonded by elastic-brittle links. The system is subjected to uniaxial compression from rigid driving plates on the upper and lower edges of the model. Experiments are conducted using both strain and stress control to load the plates. A sinusoidal stress perturbation is added to the gradual compressional loading to simulate loading and unloading cycles and LURR is calculated. The results reproduce signals similar to those observed in earthquake prediction practice with a high LURR value followed by a sudden drop prior to macroscopic failure of the sample. The results suggest that LURR provides a good predictor for catastrophic failure in elastic-brittle systems and motivate further research to study the underlying physical mechanisms and statistical properties of high LURR values. The results provide encouragement for earthquake prediction research and the use of advanced simulation models to probe the physics of earthquakes.