Fully probabilistic seismic risk assessment considering local site effects for the portfolio of buildings in Medellín,Colombia

A fully probabilistic seismic risk analysis using a comprehensive approach is conducted for Medellin, the second largest city of Colombia, using a building by building database constructed and complemented from aerial images, considering characteristics such as building use categories, socio-economic levels and replacement values. The seismic hazard used for the analysis corresponds to the most updated study available in the country with the same model that was included in the national building code maps definition. Spectral transfer functions are determined for each of the seismic microzonation zones in order to take into account the dynamic soil response and amplification effects in the risk analysis. Several building types are defined for the city and individual vulnerability functions are assigned to each of them. Risk results are presented in the state of the art metrics such as the loss exceedance curve, probable maximum losses for different return periods, average annual losses and risk maps. The obtained results can be classified by use and socio-economic sectors as well as by structural systems that may help the stakeholders to identify where the risk concentrates.     

Strong ground-motion relations for Mexican interplate earthquakes

We derive strong ground-motion relations for horizontal components of pseudo-acceleration response spectra from Mexican interplate earthquakes at rock sites (NEHRP B class) in the forearc region. The functional form is obtained from the analytical solution of a circular finite-source model. For the regression analysis we use a recently proposed multivariate Bayesian technique. The resulting model has similar accuracy as those models derived from regional and worldwide subduction-zone databases. However, there are significant differences in the estimations computed from our model and other models. First, our results reveal that attenuation in Mexico tends to be stronger than that of worldwide relations, especially for large events. Second, our model predicts ground motions for large earthquakes at close distances to the source that are considerably larger than the estimations of global models. Lack of data in this range makes it difficult to identify the most appropriate model for this scenario. Nevertheless, according to the available data at the city of Acapulco, our model seems to estimate seismic hazard more adequately than the other models. These new relations may be useful in computing seismic hazard for the Mexican forearc region, where no similar equations had been yet proposed.     

Physical model experiments for sediment supply to the old Rhine through induced bank erosion

A mobile-bed, undistorted physical model （1：40） has been used to investigate different sediment supply strategies to the Old Rhine through bank protection removal and modifications of groyne dimensions and configuration, which cause bank erosion. This trained channel was previously the main bed of the upper Rhine downstream of Basel （Switzerland）, but it has an artificially low flow regime since the construction of the Grand Canal d＇Alsace, a navigation canal, and a flow control dam at Kembs （France）. Training works and subsequent channel incision have also greatly reduced sediment transport rates and created a heavily armoured bed. The modelled pilot site has a groyne field on the left bank. Results show that the currently existing groynes at the site are not effective in creating high bank-side velocities conducive to bank erosion, even for flow rates significantly higher than the mean annual flow rate. The river bank has also proved to be more resistant than previously thought, allowing long stretches of bank protection to be safely removed. The physical model testing process has produced a new configuration for the groyne field, where two higher, larger island groynes are placed further apart than the three existing attached groynes. This innovative approach has proved effective, causing bank erosion for flow rates below the mean annual flow rate, with consistent erosion being observed. It has also been found that such a configuration does not pose a hazard for the Grand Canal d＇Alsace, which is situated next to the Old Rhine, through excessive bank erosion during high flow events.     

Segmentation and kinematics of the North America‐Caribbean plate boundary offshore Hispaniola

We explored the submarine portions of the Enriquillo–Plantain Garden Fault zone (EPGFZ) and the Septentrional–Oriente Fault zone (SOFZ) along the Northern Caribbean plate boundary using high‐resolution multibeam echo‐sounding and shallow seismic reflection. The bathymetric data shed light on poorly documented or previously unknown submarine fault zones running over 200 km between Haiti and Jamaica (EPGFZ) and 300 km between the Dominican Republic and Cuba (SOFZ). The primary plate‐boundary structures are a series of strike‐slip fault segments associated with pressure ridges, restraining bends, step overs and dogleg offsets indicating very active tectonics. Several distinct segments 50–100 km long cut across pre‐existing structures inherited from former tectonic regimes or bypass recent morphologies formed under the current strike‐slip regime. Along the most recent trace of the SOFZ, we measured a strike‐slip offset of 16.5 km, which indicates steady activity for the past ~1.8 Ma if its current GPS‐derived motion of 9.8 ± 2 mm a^?1 has remained stable during the entire Quaternary.     

Effects of Unstable Thermal Stratification on Vertical Fluxes of Heat and Momentum in Urban Areas

A Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes microscale model is used for the simulation of the effect of unstable thermal stratification on the flow within an aligned configuration of building-like cubes as used in Santiago et al. (Urban Clim 9:115–133, 2014). The spatially-averaged results show increased dispersive fluxes, turbulent length scales and sectional drag coefficient. An extension of K-theory is presented to parametrize the sum of the turbulent and dispersive fluxes, and the length scale and drag coefficient increases are parametrized as functions of the ratio of buoyant and inertial forces. This approach improves the results of urban canopy parametrization simulations inside and above the urban canyon and represents the first attempt to account for the dispersive fluxes and the effect of solar radiation on the flow.     

Construction of an Intraplate Fault System Model of South Australia, and Simulation Tool for the iSERVO Institute Seed Project

To foster ongoing international cooperation beyond ACES (APEC Cooperation for Earthquake Simulation) on the simulation of solid earth phenomena, agreement was reached to work towards establishment of a frontier international research institute for simulating the solid earth: iSERVO = International Solid Earth Research Virtual Observatory institute (http://www.iservo.edu.au). This paper outlines a key Australian contribution towards the iSERVO institute seed project, this is the construction of: (1) a typical intraplate fault system model using practical fault system data of South Australia (i.e., SA interacting fault model), which includes data management and editing, geometrical modeling and mesh generation; and (2) a finite-element based software tool, which is built on our long-term and ongoing effort to develop the R-minimum strategy based finite-element computational algorithm and software tool for modelling three-dimensional nonlinear frictional contact behavior between multiple deformable bodies with the arbitrarily-shaped contact element strategy. A numerical simulation of the SA fault system is carried out using this software tool to demonstrate its capability and our efforts towards seeding the iSERVO Institute.     

Weak phylogeographic structure in the endemic western North American fairy shrimp <Emphasis Type="Italic">Branchinecta lynchi</Emphasis> (Eng,Belk and Erickson 1990)

The vernal pool fairy shrimp (Branchinecta lynchi) (Eng et al. in J Crustac Biol 10:247–277, 1990) is broadly distributed throughout California’s Central Valley with disjunct populations in southern California and southern Oregon. A survey of genetic variation at the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) gene was conducted from individuals collected throughout the range of the species. Phylogenetic analysis of unique haplotypes could not resolve any significant genetic partitions below the species level. A detailed analysis of samples from two pools indicates that sample sizes underestimate overall variation, but that the general phylogeographic pattern still holds. Evidence was found for a putative long-distance dispersal event between Central Valley sites and the Oregon site. These results indicate that geographically limiting stochastic colonization followed by local diversification may be important in governing current genetic structure for this species. Future and current conservation/restoration efforts should recognize the geographic limitations to population structure for this species and focus on local endemic genetic variation.