FDE index for goodness‐of‐fit between measured and calculated response signals

A method is presented for determining the goodness‐of‐fit between measured and calculated structural response signals. The method is termed as the frequency domain error (FDE) index, which is a value between 0 and 1 where zero indicates a perfect correlation. The FDE is calculated from the Fourier spectra of the measured and calculated waveforms, using a relatively simple calculation procedure, readily implemented using standard fast Fourier transform (FFT) libraries. The FDE is demonstrated herein using three different types of problems: simple harmonic waves, a large number of earthquake response simulations, and a set of limited simulations. Along with the FDE concept, effective methods for displaying the results are presented. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A multi-physics ensemble of regional climate change projections over the Iberian Peninsula

This study illustrates the sensitivity of regional climate change projections to the model physics. A single-model (MM5) multi-physics ensemble of regional climate simulations over the Iberian Peninsula for present (1970–1999) and future (2070–2099 under the A2 scenario) periods is assessed. The ensemble comprises eight members resulting from the combination of two options of parameterization schemes for the planetary boundary layer, cumulus and microphysics. All the considered combinations were previously evaluated by comparing hindcasted simulations to observations, none of them providing clearly outlying climates. Thus, the differences among the various ensemble members (spread) in the future projections could be considered as a matter of uncertainty in the change signals (as similarly assumed in multi-model studies). The results highlight the great dependence of the spread on the synoptic conditions driving the regional model. In particular, the spread generally amplifies under the future scenario leading to a large spread accompanying the mean change signals, as large as the magnitude of the mean projected changes and analogous to the spread obtained in multi-model ensembles. Moreover, the sign of the projected change varies depending on the choice of the model physics in many cases. This, together with the fact that the key mechanisms identified for the simulation of the climatology of a given period (either present or future) and those introducing the largest spread in the projected changes differ significantly, make further claims for efforts to better understand and model the parameterized subgrid processes.     

Streamwise Versus Spanwise Spacing of Obstacle Arrays: Parametrization of the Effects on Drag and Turbulence

A Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes model is used to investigate the evolution of the sectional drag coefficient and turbulent length scales with the layouts of aligned arrays of cubes. Results show that the sectional drag coefficient is determined by the non-dimensional streamwise distance (sheltering parameter), and the non-dimensional spanwise distance (channelling parameter) between obstacles. This is different than previous approaches that consider only plan area density $(\lambda _\mathrm{p})$ . On the other hand, turbulent length scales behave similarly to the staggered case (e. g. they are function of $\lambda _\mathrm{p}$ only). Analytical formulae are proposed for the length scales and for the sectional drag coefficient as a function of sheltering and channelling parameters, and implemented in a column model. This approach demonstrates good skill in the prediction of vertical profiles of the spatially-averaged horizontal wind speed.     

Impacts of landscape fragmentation on simulated precipitation fields in the Amazonian sub-basin of Ji-Paraná using the Eta model

Numerical studies on impacts of landscape fragmentation due to land use and land cover change (LUCC) on precipitation fields over the Ji-Paraná basin in the Amazon region are carried out using atmospheric Eta model. Experiments consider historical data about LUCC over the basin from 1978 to 2000 and compare simulations under LUCC conditions with simulations under pristine conditions. In agreement with previous observational studies, model results do not show statistically significant impacts on precipitation in the region. Results indicate that variability in precipitation in this region is mainly controlled by large-scale atmospheric characteristics and soil moisture conditions. However, some limitations are identified in the model simulations, mainly associated to the diurnal cycle of precipitation.     

(Near-)real-time orbit determination for GNSS radio occultation processing

The processing of GPS radio occultation measurements for use in numerical weather predictions requires a precise orbit determination (POD) of the host satellite in near-real-time. Making use of data from the GRAS instrument on Metop-A, the performance of different GPS ephemeris products and processing concepts for near-real-time and real-time POD is compared. While previous analyses have focused on the achievable along-track velocity accuracy, this study contributes a systematic comparison of the resulting estimated bending angles. This enables a more rigorous trade-off of different orbit determination methodologies in relation to the end-user needs for atmospheric science products. It is demonstrated that near-real-time GPS orbit and clock products have reached a sufficient quality to determine the Metop-A along-track velocity with an accuracy of better than 0.05 mm/s that was formerly only accessible in post-processing. The resulting bending angles are shown to exhibit standard deviation and bias differences of less than 0.3 % compared with post-processed products up to altitudes of at least 40 km, which is notably better than 1 % accuracy typically assumed for numerical weather predictions in this height regime. Complementary to the analysis of ground-based processing schemes, the potential of autonomous on-board orbit determination is investigated for the first time. Using actual GRAS flight data, it is shown that a 0.5 m 3D rms position accuracy and a 0.2 mm/s along-track velocity accuracy can in fact be obtained in real-time with the currently available GPS broadcast ephemeris quality. Bending angles derived from the simulated real-time processing exhibit a minor performance degradation above tangent point heights of 40 km but negligible differences with respect to ground-based products below this altitude. Onboard orbit determination and, if desired, bending angle computation, can thus enable a further simplification of the ground segment in future radio occultation missions and contribute to reduced product latencies for radio occultation data assimilation in numerical weather predictions.     

Forests and water in South America

South America is experiencing rapid change in forest cover, of both native and planted forest. Forest cover loss is primarily attributable to fire, logging, and conversion of native forest to agriculture, pasture, and forest plantations, and types of change vary within and among the many diverse types of forests in South America. Major changes in forest cover and growing policy concerns underscore an urgent need for research on sustainable forest management and water ecosystem services in South America. Differences in land ownership and management objectives create trade‐offs between wood production and water ecosystem services from forests. Work is needed to quantify how forest change and management affect ecosystem services, such as wood production versus water provision. Current scientific understanding of forest management effects on water ecosystem services in South America has important limitations, including a scarcity of long‐term records and few long‐term integrated watershed studies. Industry, government, universities, and local communities should collaborate on integrated applied studies of forests and water. Data archiving and publically available data are required. The creation of national networks and a multi‐country South America network to identify and implement common water research protocols, share results, and explore their implications would promote common and well‐supported policies. Hydrologists working in South America are well placed to tackle the challenges and opportunities for collaborative research that will maintain the intrinsic values and water ecosystem services provided by South America's forests.     

Wavelet-multivariate relevance vector machine hybrid model for forecasting daily evapotranspiration

Evapotranspiration (ET) is one of the main components of the hydrological cycle. It is a complex process driven mainly by weather parameters, and as such, is characterized by high non-linearity and non-stationarity. This paper introduces a methodology combining wavelet multiresolution analysis with a machine learning algorithm, the multivariate relevance vector machine (MVRVM), in order to predict 16 days of future daily reference evapotranspiration (ETo). This methodology lays the ground for forecasting the spatial distribution of ET using Landsat satellite imagery, hence the choice of 16 days, which corresponds with the Landsat overpass cycle. An accurate prediction of daily ETo is needed to improve the management of irrigation schedules as well as the operations of water supply facilities like canals and reservoirs. In this paper, various wavelet decompositions were performed and combined with MVRVM to develop hybrid models to predict ETo over a 16-days period. These models were compared to a MVRVM model, and models accuracy and robustness were evaluated. The addition of 10 days of forecasted air temperature as additional inputs to the forecasting models was also investigated. The results of the wavelet-MVRVM hybrid modeling methodology showed that a reliable forecast of ETo up to 16 days ahead is possible.     

The first hours of the optical afterglow from the cosmic gamma-ray burst 030329

We describe the first results of our observations of the exceptionally bright optical afterglow from the cosmic gamma-ray burst (GRB) of March 29, 2003 (030329), with the 1.5-m Russian-Turkish telescope (RTT150) installed at the TUBITAK National Observatory (Turkey) at Mount Bakyrlytepe. RTT150 was one of the first medium-class telescopes pointed at the afterglow. The observations began as early as about six hours after the GRB. During the first five hours of our observations, the BV RI flux fell off exactly as a power law with the same slope ?1.19±0.01. Subsequently, in all of the BV RI bands, we observed the same increase in the power-law slope of the light curve to a value that was later recorded during the observations at observatories in the western hemisphere. The break in the power-law light curve occurs at t ? t ₀ ≈ 0.57 days (13.5 h) and lasts for about 0.2 days. Apart from this smooth decrease in the flux, the afterglow exhibited no flux variability. The upper limits on the variability are 10–1% on time scales of 0.1–1000 s, respectively. The BV RI spectral flux distribution during the first night of our observations closely corresponds to a power-law spectrum with a spectral index α=0.66±0.01. The change in the power-law slope of the light curve at the end of our observations is probably attributable to the deceleration of the ultrarelativistic jet to a gamma factor when its structural features begin to show up in the light curve. The radio, optical, and X-ray broadband spectrum is consistent with the assumption about the synchrotron radiation of the ultrarelativistic jet. This unique object continues to be observed with RTT150.