Tracing leachates at waste sites using geophysical and geochemical modelling

Tracing leachates at landfills is usually carried out using either geophysical methods or chemical analyses of groundwater. There are often problems with fingerprinting pollution sources or clarifying the spreading pattern due to a wide variety of possibilities giving similar anomalies. The aims of the project were to evaluate the advantages of combining results from multigeophysical modelling and statistical/chemical modelling in order to identify pollution sources and the spreading pattern and to test a new technique for chemical fingerprinting. The project was carried out at a landfill in central Sweden using geophysical measurements and modelling of CVES, GPR and VLF as well as chemical modelling using M3 (multivariate mixing and mass balance calculations). The results indicate that by combining geophysical modelling and chemical calculations, the possibilities of fingerprinting the origin of pollution as well as delineating the spreading pattern are significantly increased.     

Early Holocene water budget of the Nakuru-Elmenteita basin, Central Kenya Rift

The Nakuru-Elmenteita basin in the Central Kenya Rift, contains two shallow, alkaline lakes, Lake Nakuru (1770 m above sea level) and Lake Elmenteita (1786 m). Ancient shorelines and lake sediments at 1940 m suggest that these two lakes formed a single large and deep lake as a result of a wetter climate during the early Holocene. Here, we used a hydrological model to compare the precipitation–evaporation balance during the early Holocene to today. Assuming that the Nakuru-Elmenteita basin was hydrologically closed, as it is today, the most likely climate scenario includes a 45% increase in mean-annual precipitation, a 0.5°C decrease in air temperature, and an increase of 9% in cloud coverage from the modern values. Compared to the modeling results from other East African lake basins, this dramatic increase in precipitation seems to be unrealistic. Therefore, we propose a significant flow of water from the early Holocene Lake Naivasha in the south towards the Nakuru-Elmenteita basin to compensate the extremely negative hydrological budget of this basin. Since we did not find any field evidence for a surface connection, as often proposed during the last 70 years, the hydrological deficit of the Nakuru-Elmenteita basin could have also been compensated by a subsurface water exchange.     

Strike-slip fault bridge fluid pumping mechanism: insights from field-based palaeostress analysis and numerical modelling

We present a finite-element study of stress perturbation in evolving compressive and extensional strike-slip fault bridges. The results are compared with a fracture study of a compressive bridge at St Donats, UK. Horizontally interbedded calcareous mudstone and bioclastic calcilutite at St Donats have a distinct vertical permeability anisotropy. This sedimentary sequence behaves as a set of horizontal aquifers. The fluid flow in these aquifers is sensitive to mean stress gradients. Paleostress analysis of field fracture data, verified by finite-element modelling, indicates a rotation of σ₁ towards parallelism with boundary faults inside the growing compressive bridge. Boundary faults and bridge faults recorded numerous fluid flow events. The modelled mean stress pattern shows a regional maximum within the bridge and local maxima/minima pairs at boundary fault tips.Finite-element modelling of an extensional bridge indicates that σ₃ rotates towards parallelism with boundary faults. The mean stress pattern is similar to the pattern in compressive bridge but with maxima and minima locations interchanged. The stress patterns are reestablished by each stress build-up preceding the rupturation of the boundary faults throughout the development stages of strike-slip fault bridges. Mean stress gradients developed pre-failure control the fluid flow in fractures of the strike-slip fault system at and after the end of each stress build-up and the fluid flow in boundary faults post-failure. Fracture reactivation and new fracture generation within an evolving bridge is a process consisting of multiple successive events that retain the storage capacity of the bridge. Rupture and sealing of the main bounding-faults is a step-wise process that opens and closes fluid conduits between areas with different pressures.     

Probability Density Functions as Botanical-Climatological Transfer Functions for Climate Reconstruction

We present a new procedure, the pdf method (pdf=probability density function), for reconstructing Quaternary climate utilizing botanical data. The procedure includes the advantages of the indicator species method by considering the fossil and modern presence and absence of taxa rather than their frequencies, thus avoiding the need for modern analog plant communities. Overcoming the problematic use of absolute limits to describe climate response ranges is the main progress of the pdf method in comparison to the indicator species method. This advantage results from estimating probability density functions (pdfs) for monthly mean January and July temperature conditional on the present day occurrence of single taxa. Gaussian distributions sufficiently approximate pdfs of many, although not all, studied taxa. On the assumption of statistical independence, the procedure calculates a joint pdf as the product of the pdfs of the individual taxa. This algorithm weights each taxon according to the extent of its climate response range expressed by its covariance structure. We interpret the maximum of the resulting pdf as the most likely climate and its confidence interval as the uncertainty range. To avoid an artificial reduction of uncertainty arising from the use of numerous similar pdfs, a preselection method is proposed based on the Mahalanobis distance between pdfs. The pdf method was applied to the Carpinus phase of a profile from Gröbern, Germany, that spans the last interglaciation (Eemian). The reconstructed most probable January and July temperatures of about 0.0°C and 18.4°C barely differ from the modern values of −0.5°C and 18.3°C.     

Statistical tests for regional seismic phase characterizations

In seismic analysis some assumptions are often made aboutthe data, e.g. stationarity and Gaussianity. This is not obvious for all realseismic data. Here, we use statistical tests for characterization of regionalseismic data. We apply tests for stationarity, symmetry, linearity, andtime-reversibility. In the analysis we use twelve regional seismic events inFennoscandia recorded with the seismic small-aperture arrays NORESS,ARCESS and FINESA at hypocentral distances in the range from 160 to1580 km. For the tests we use the regional phases Pn, secondary P, Sn and Lg-phases and the preceding noise. Two of the eventsare explosions, two are rockbursts and eight are earthquakes. Theperformance and possibilities of using statistical tests based on bispectra, asa complementary tool for conventional analysis of seismic phases isdemonstrated. The preceding noise recorded before the first onset of theP-wave for the twelve events is tested to be spatially stationarybetween each channel within each array and temporal stationary in 21consecutive time windows of 3.2 sec each. Also, the preceding noise issymmetric and linear. The seismic phases defined by the symmetry test asnon-Gaussian (not symmetric) are all linear. This means a linear model canbe used to characterize both the noise and the phases. The first P-phase for the two explosions is characterized as non-Gaussian at thethree arrays. For all 36 possibly first P-phase arrivals at the three arraystations, 23 are non-Gaussian. The second P-phase is non-Gaussian at13 of 36 data records, the S-phase at eleven of 36 and the Lg-phase at nine of 36. For all the four phases more than 32 of possible36 are time-reversible.     

Inelastic dynamic analysis of RC bridges accounting for spatial variability of ground motion,site effects and soil–structure interaction phenomena. Part 1: Methodology and analytical tools

During strong ground motion it is expected that extended structures (such as bridges) are subjected to excitation that varies along their longitudinal axis in terms of arrival time, amplitude and frequency content, a fact primarily attributed to the wave passage effect, the loss of coherency and the role of local site conditions. Furthermore, the foundation interacts with the soil and the superstructure, thus significantly affecting the dynamic response of the bridge. A general methodology is therefore set up and implemented into a computer code for deriving sets of appropriately modified time histories and spring–dashpot coefficients at each support of a bridge with account for spatial variability, local site conditions and soil–foundation–superstructure interaction, for the purposes of inelastic dynamic analysis of RC bridges. In order to validate the methodology and code developed, each stage of the proposed procedure is verified using recorded data, finite‐element analyses, alternative computer programs, previous research studies, and closed‐form solutions wherever available. The results establish an adequate degree of confidence in the use of the proposed methodology and code in further parametric analyses and seismic design. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Inelastic dynamic analysis of RC bridges accounting for spatial variability of ground motion,site effects and soil–structure interaction phenomena. Part 2: Parametric study

The methodology for dealing with spatial variability of ground motion, site effects and soil–structure interaction phenomena in the context of inelastic dynamic analysis of bridge structures, and the associated analytical tools established and validated in a companion paper are used herein for a detailed parametric analysis, aiming to evaluate the importance of the above effects in seismic design. For a total of 20 bridge structures differing in terms of structural type (fundamental period, symmetry, regularity, abutment conditions, pier‐to‐deck connections), dimensions (span and overall length), and ground motion characteristics (earthquake frequency content and direction of excitation), the dynamic response corresponding to nine levels of increasing analysis complexity was calculated and compared with the ‘standard’ case of a fixed base, uniformly excited, elastic structure for which site effects were totally ignored. It is concluded that the dynamic response of RC bridges is indeed strongly affected by the coupling of the above phenomena that may adversely affect displacements and/or action effects under certain circumstances. Evidence is also presented that some bridge types are relatively more sensitive to the above phenomena, hence a more refined analysis approach should be considered in their case. Copyright @ 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Differential nocturnal cooling in the landscape detected by mobile measurements

Summary In June 1986 mobile air temperature measurements were performed in the Kivik area in Sweden. The measuring trips were repeated each hour during a night with calm and clear weather conditions. Along a loop, 8650 m long and traversing a hilly landscape, the air temperature was measured at four levels (0.2, 1.0, 2.0 and 3.0 m a g). In this study the results are focused on the measurements at the standard level, 2.0 m a g, in order to make it easier to compare this study with earlier mobile studies.Sudden rises in air temperature at 2.0 m occurred at a number of elevated locations along the loop, at a max. rate of 3.5°C/hour, indicative of the influence of dynamic turbulence. Lower parts of the loop did show a drop in air temperature at the same time, with a max. of 3.8°C/hour, indicative of cold air influence. In most earlier studies the mobile measurements were compensated for the nocturnal cooling in order to make it possible to directly compare the different measurement points. This study highlights the problems due to turbulence as mentioned above. It also stresses the fact that more reference measurements at more than one point along a loop are needed in hilly terrain.With 7 Figures