Extended regional climate model projections for Europe until the mid-twentyfirst century: combining ENSEMBLES and CMIP3

This study aims at sharpening the existing knowledge of expected seasonal mean climate change and its uncertainty over Europe for the two key climate variables air temperature and precipitation amount until the mid-twentyfirst century. For this purpose, we assess and compensate the global climate model (GCM) sampling bias of the ENSEMBLES regional climate model (RCM) projections by combining them with the full set of the CMIP3 GCM ensemble. We first apply a cross-validation in order to assess the skill of different statistical data reconstruction methods in reproducing ensemble mean and standard deviation. We then select the most appropriate reconstruction method in order to fill the missing values of the ENSEMBLES simulation matrix and further extend the matrix by all available CMIP3 GCM simulations forced by the A1B emission scenario. Cross-validation identifies a randomized scaling approach as superior in reconstructing the ensemble spread. Errors in ensemble mean and standard deviation are mostly less than 0.1 K and 1.0 % for air temperature and precipitation amount, respectively. Reconstruction of the missing values reveals that expected seasonal mean climate change of the ENSEMBLES RCM projections is not significantly biased and that the associated uncertainty is not underestimated due to sampling of only a few driving GCMs. In contrast, the spread of the extended simulation matrix is partly significantly lower, sharpening our knowledge about future climate change over Europe by reducing uncertainty in some regions. Furthermore, this study gives substantial weight to recent climate change impact studies based on the ENSEMBLES projections, since it confirms the robustness of the climate forcing of these studies concerning GCM sampling.     

Cross-national patterns of governance mechanisms in nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement

ABSTRACT

The continuous submission and scaling-up of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) constitutes a key feature of the Paris Agreement. In their NDCs, states propose governance mechanisms for implementation of climate action, in turn distinguishing appropriate roles for the state in climate governance. Clarity on Parties’ suggested roles for the state makes explicit assumptions on the premise of climate policy, in turn contributing to enhanced transparency in negotiations on the scaling-up of NDCs. This also speaks to ongoing debates on roles for the state in climate governance literature. This article identifies the governance mechanisms proposed by states in their NDCs and the roles for the state envisioned by those governance mechanisms, and also examines how cross-national patterns of roles for the state break or converge with conventional patterns of international politics. The analysis shows that states propose a plurality of roles, which to different extents may be complementary or conflictual. We conclude that income, region, and the Annexes under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are important for understanding suggested roles for the state, but that there are nuances to be further explored. We argue that this paper has three key findings: i) a majority of states rely on market mechanisms to implement their NDCs while rules on implementation and assessment of market mechanisms are still an outstanding issue in the negotiations, meaning that resolving this issue will be essential; ii) the process for evaluating and assessing qualitative governance mechanisms needs to be specified; and iii) increased awareness of differing views on the state’s roles makes explicit different perspectives on what constitutes an ambitious and legitimate contribution to combating climate change.

Key policy insights

• A majority of states (> 75%) envision the state as regulator (creating and strengthening legislation), market facilitator (creating and maintaining market structures), or facilitator (creating more favourable material conditions for climate-friendly behaviour).

• Greater awareness of differing views on roles for the state can increase understanding of different perspectives on ambition and legitimacy of contributions, in turn facilitating trust in negotiations.

• A distinction between substantive and procedural qualitative governance mechanisms and their function and interaction would facilitate the stocktaking dialogues.

     

Assessment of nutrient sources and paleoproductivity during the past century in Longgan Lake,middle reaches of the Yangtze River,China

Total organic carbon (TOC), total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) were determined in combination with stable isotope ratios of carbon and nitrogen (δ¹³C_Org, δ¹⁵N) in a 63 cm sediment core from Longgan Lake, located in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, China. These geochemical and isotopic records provide a continuous history of lake productivity and trophic state of Longgan Lake since 1890. Variations of δ¹³C_Org, TOC, TN and TP indicate that primary productivity of Longgan Lake increased continuously during the last century and that the trophic state of the lake shifted from oligotrophic to mestrotrophic conditions accordingly. Anthropogenic sources of organic carbon (OC), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) were distinguished from their natural background in the sediments using mass accumulation rates. Element mass accumulation rates suggested increased human activities in the lake’s catchment since 1950s, were especially the utilization of artificial fertilizers amplified the anthropogenic input of N and P into the lake. In the course of the improved availability of dissolved nutrients also primary productivity of Longgan Lake increased, resulting in an increase of the Suess-effect corrected organic carbon isotope ratios. δ¹⁵N of bulk sediments show a marked shift towards lower values around 1950 that has been attributed to the input of nitrogen from chemical fertilizers characterized by relatively depleted isotopic signatures into the lake.     

Geochemical evidence of aeolian deposits in European soils

Hafnium (Hf) and zirconium (Zr) concentrations measured in over 4100 agricultural soil samples from Europe were assessed with the focus on their relationship to the distribution of aeolian deposits, such as loess and coversands. Comparison of extractable (aqua regia; ICP‐MS) and total (XRFS) concentrations shows that only 1.0 to 1.7% of the total Hf and Zr is chemically extractable because of the resistant nature of their host minerals. Resistate minerals, such as zircon, are commonly found in the predominantly silty fraction of loess deposits. In this study a statistical analysis of total Hf and Zr soil data from areas with and without loess was carried out to derive threshold values of 10 mg kg^?1 (Hf) and 318 mg kg^?1 (Zr). These values were subsequently applied across the project area in an attempt to indicate the presence of aeolian deposits. The spatial distribution of above‐threshold concentrations suggests a more extensive and coherent loess belt across central and eastern Europe, providing additional evidence of loess across Brittany, Aquitaine and near the Vosges mountains in France as well as in the basins of central and northern Spain. Above‐threshold concentrations were also detected in loess regardless of its thickness, emphasising the importance of the abundance of zircon in the upper part of the soil profile rather than the actual thickness of the deposit. Soil data however, failed to indicate various loess facies within most of the Pannonian Basin, suggesting that this approach only works where deposits contain a sufficient amount of zircon. This may also explain why the extensive coversands across northern Germany and Poland were largely undetected. This study demonstrates that continental‐scale soil geochemical data can help identify and map the distribution of zircon‐rich loess and coversand, and subsequently enhance and improve current knowledge of the extent of these deposits.     

Spatial and temporal structure of the Denmark Strait Overflow revealed by acoustic observations

In spite of the fundamental role the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) plays for global climate stability, no direct current measurement of the Denmark Strait Overflow, which is the densest part of the AMOC, has been available until recently that resolve the cross-stream structure at the sill for long periods. Since 1999, an array of bottom-mounted acoustic instruments measuring current velocity and bottom-to-surface acoustic travel times was deployed at the sill. Here, the optimization of the array configuration based on a numerical overflow model is discussed. The simulation proves that more than 80% of the dense water transport variability is captured by two to three acoustic current profilers (ADCPs). The results are compared with time series from ADCPs and Inverted Echo Sounders deployed from 1999 to 2003, confirming that the dense overflow plume can be reliably measured by bottom-mounted instruments and that the overflow is largely geostrophically balanced at the sill.     

The evolution of brittle and ductile structures at the surface of a partly debris-covered,rapidly thinning and slowly moving glacier in 1998–2012 (Pasterze Glacier,Austria)

Many glaciers in alpine regions are currently rapidly receding and thinning at historically unobserved rates causing changes in the velocity field and in normal and shear stresses affecting the surface expression of structures within the ice. We studied the distribution of brittle and ductile structures at the surface of Pasterze Glacier during a 14-year period by analysing orthophotos and digital elevation models of five stages (1998, 2003, 2006, 2009 and 2012). A structural glaciological mapping key was applied. Normal faults, strike-slip faults, en échelon structures (systematic stepping of fractures), thrust faults, and band ogives were distinguished. Results indicate substantial deceleration and glacier thinning in 1998–2012. Glacier thinning was not homogenous over time related to the uneven distribution of supraglacial debris causing differential ablation or the selective ablation effects of subglacial water channels. Peculiar supraglacial features observed are circular collapse structures with concentric crevasses which form when the ice between the surface and the roof of water channels decreases. The total length of brittle structures increased from 38.4 km to 56.9 km whereas the extent of the glacier tongue decreased by 25%. The fracture density doubled from 0.009 to 0.018 m/m². Areas of the glacier tongue which were up to 100 m away from the nearest brittle structure increased by 16%. The visual appearance of thrust faults shifted upglacier due to decreasing glacier velocity causing horizontal shortening or due to exhumation of faults that did not previously extend to the surface. A large number of brittle structures are progressively independent from glacier motion. Our study suggests that glacier tongues which are in a state of rapid decay and thinning are prone to fracturing due to normal fault formation and glacier disintegration. Water further increases ablation rates substantially if rather large amounts drain through supra-, en- or subglacial water channels. © 2018 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

The myth of community and sustainable grassland management in China

Within national and international domestic academic circles, there are increasing calls for enhanced involvement of communities in formulating and implementing grassland management arrangements. In contrast to the current national policy of contracting grasslands to households, many scholars call for support for collective grassland use arrangements. Several reasons are given for increased recognition and support for community-based management of grasslands, including lower costs of exclusion and dispute resolution, economies of scale in herding and marketing, mitigation of environmental risk, and ensuring equitable access to grassland resources. One conclusion from this literature is that devolving authority for designing and implementing grassland management systems to communities would lead to more sustainable grassland use, a position that I term as the ‘myth of community.’ This paper presents the results of a study of grazing systems in two communities in Hongyuan County, Sichuan Province. Each community uses its grasslands collectively. However, the study found evidence of severe overgrazing, especially in winter pastures, suggesting that community-based management of grasslands is not necessarily sustainable. The paper discusses three potential policy innovations required to support sustainable grazing systems in China’s grassland areas: overcoming constraints in labor and land markets, and payments for environmental services that reward sustainable stocking levels.     

Mineral dissolution kinetics as a function of distance from equilibrium – New experimental results

We revisit a fundamental question in mineral dissolution kinetics, namely: is the function of dissolution rate versus the distance from equilibrium continuous, or does the “switch” between two different reaction mechanisms cause a discontinuity, i.e., a kinetic bifurcation? Based on new insight from experimental results, including direct observations of retreating crystal surfaces with vertical scanning interferometry (VSI), we present evidence that a discontinuity does indeed exist. Through a carefully designed near-equilibrium albite dissolution experiment, we show how a non-steady-state dissolution rate observed on a crystal surface reflects reactivity inherited from earlier episodes of undersaturation. This outcome forces us to re-think the common practice of extrapolating overall dissolution rates measured far-from-equilibrium to near-equilibrium conditions.     

Integrated and Participatory Research Approaches towards Sustainable Livelihoods and Ecosystems in Mountainous Regions

Mountainous regions cover about 27 per cent of the world’s land surface and are home to some 22 per cent of the global population (UNEP 2002). A much greater number of people depend on mountain environments for a wide range of services, including clean water, energy, timber, biodiversity, recreation, and protection from environmental hazards, such as landslides and floods. At the same time, mountain areas are extremely vulnerable ecosystems and under continuous threat of environmental degrad…