Uncertainty, learning and ambiguity in economic models on climate policy: some classical results and new directions

We present how uncertainty and learning are classically studied in economic models. Specifically, we study a standard expected utility model with two sequential decisions, and consider two particular cases of this model to illustrate how uncertainty and learning may affect climate policy. While uncertainty has generally a negative effect on welfare, learning has always a positive, and thus opposite, effect. The effects of both uncertainty and learning on decisions are less clear. Neither uncertainty nor learning can be used as a general argument to increase or reduce emissions today without studying the specific intertemporal costs and benefits. Considering limits in applying the expected utility framework to climate change problems, we then consider a more recent framework with ambiguity-aversion which accounts for situations of imprecise or multiple probability distributions. We discuss both the impact of ambiguity-aversion on decisions and difficulties in applying such a non-expected utility framework to a dynamic context.     

Comparative investigations of the efficiency of dredged sedimentation traps for the elimination of phosphorus and suspended matter in river mouth areas: A case study

Presented is a simple mass-balance approach to evaluate the efficiency of dredged sedimentation traps for the elimination of suspended matter and phosphorus (P). Sediment parameters inside and outside the traps were analysed from three river mouths in northern Germany. In the pits, a fine-grained sediment richer in iron, P, and organic content than the surrounding sediment was trapped. However, the sediment P fractionation carried out indicates that no increased release of P is expected, which is not different from those found in natural beds. Hence, these traps are a practicable measure of reducing riverine seston and P discharges to the interior coastal waters and consequently to the open Baltic. *** DIRECT SUPPORT *** A01BY073 00003     

Inverse modeling of energy transports and budgets of the atmosphere

The vertically integrated horizontal energy transports and the vertically integrated vertical energy flux divergence from ERA-40 and ISCCP are not in balance assuming a stationary climate as a time mean over several years. The reasons are the inherent uncertainties in each of the respective data sets. We therefore modify them using a variational approach with a discretization in spherical harmonics to obtain consistent values. The variational approach only modifies the smaller yet more uncertain divergent part of the flow, leaving the large rotational part untouched. From these consistent fields we can calculate posterior covariance matrices of the vertically integrated horizontal energy transport and the vertically integrated vertical energy flux divergence, providing a measure of the uncertainty of the previous calculation. We are able to use these posterior covariance matrices to give an estimate of the uncertainty of the zonally and vertically integrated meridional energy transport, which is about 0.25 PW in the tropics and 0.04 PW in high latitudes, as well as for the vertical energy flux divergence of the atmosphere, which ranges from 2.5 to 5 W/m² in the tropics to 15–17 W/m² in high latitudes.     

MODERN CLIMATIC SIGNALS DEDUCED FROM STABLE ISOTOPE IN SHELLS IN XINGCUO LAKE SEDIMENTS,EAST TIBETAN PLATEAU,CHINA

Ｉｔｉｓｏｎｅｏｆｔｈｅｆｒｏｎｔｉｅｒｆｏｃｕｓｅｓｉｎｔｈｅｆｉｅｌｄｏｆｇｌｏｂｌｅｅｎｖｉｒｏｎｍｅｎｔａｌｃｈａｎｇｅｓｔｏｅｘｔｒａｃｔｑｕａｎｔｉｔａｔｉｖｅｌｙｐａｓｔｃｌｉｍａｔｉｃｓｉｇｎａｌｓｆｒｏｍｌａｋｅｓｅｄｉｍｅｎｔｒｅｃｏｒｄｓ．Ｉｎｔｈｅｒｅ-ｃｅｎｔｄｅｃａｄｃｉｏｕｓｙｅａｒｓａｓｅｒｉｅｓｏｆａｃｈｉｅｖｅｍｅｎｔｓｏｎｒｅ-ｂｕｉｌｄｉｎｇｔｈｅｓｅｑｕｅｎｃｅｓｏｆｃｌｉｍａｔｉｃａｎｄｅｎｖｉｒｏｎｍｅｎｔａｌｅｖｏｌｕｔｉｏｎｓａｔｖａｒｉｏｕｓｓ…     

Pedodiversity and pedogenesis in Zayandeh-rud Valley, Central Iran

A geomorphic hierarchical downscaling method was used to decompose the forms and processes forming the landscapes and their subdivisions in the main region of Zayandeh-rud Valley. The purpose of this study was to determine the degree of soil heterogeneity and to check if K-entropy would be a good measure of soil evolution. Soil diversity analyses were performed considering soil families as individuals of soil entities in each geomorphic or taxonomic category level. Pedodiversity indices were used to follow the trend of soil and landscape evolution. The relationships between K-entropy (Shannon diversity index) and pedo-richness versus increasing area were analyzed to find out the effects of soil–landscape evolution on complexity of soil patterns in different geomorphic surfaces. Entropy–age relationship was studied to check the pedogenetic pathways responsible for soil landscape evolution. The soil diversity increases as geomorphic and taxonomic hierarchy levels decrease. The diversity indices were high when the sequence of soil horizons in a homogeneous family was also investigated. An increase in K-entropy of soil and landscape during time confirms the hypothesis of soil divergence evolution, whereby differences in initial conditions or local perturbations, and dynamic instability appear to have produced more variable soils and landscapes in the study area.     

Late Miocene increasing exhumation rates in the eastern part of the Alps – implications from low temperature thermochronology

A new set of apatite fission‐track and apatite (U–Th)/He data reveals a hitherto undated late Miocene exhumation pulse in the eastern part of the Eastern Alps. While distinct parts of the study area, including the Seckauer Tauern, have been at near surface conditions (<100 °C) since the Eocene, the neighbouring Niedere Tauern experienced enhanced cooling and exhumation in the middle Miocene and again at the late Miocene/Pliocene boundary. Middle Miocene exhumation is interpreted as a result of tectonic escape and convergence that operated simultaneously during lateral extrusion of the Eastern Alps. As the higher late Miocene/Pliocene exhumation rates are restricted to a single tectonic block, namely the Niedere Tauern, we infer a tectonic trigger that is probably related to a change in the external stress field that affected the Alps during this time.     

Mechanism development and modelling of tropospheric multiphase halogen chemistry: The CAPRAM Halogen Module 2.0 (HM2)

A new detailed multiphase halogen mechanism, the CAPRAM Halogen Module 2.0 (HM2), has been developed and coupled to the multiphase chemistry mechanism RACM-MIM2ext/CAPRAM 3.0n. The overall mechanism comprises 1,705 reactions including 595 reactions of the HM2. Halogen chemistry box model studies have been, for the first time, performed with a non-permanent cloud scenario for pristine open ocean regions in mid-latitudes. Moreover, detailed time-resolved reaction flux analysis has been used to investigate the multiphase halogen reaction cycles in more detail. Clouds significantly change the multiphase halogen chemical system and new reaction cycles are proposed for in-cloud conditions. While most gas phase concentrations are decreased for chlorine and iodine species, they are increased for bromine. Flux analyses determined the relative contributions of the methylene dihalides CH₂IX (X = Cl, Br, I) as the main I atom source with a contribution of about 80 % to the total iodocarbon sources. Furthermore, HOI was confirmed to be important for chlorine activation. It is shown that 25 % of the ozone loss can be attributed to halogens. VOC oxidation by halogens is important as halogens account for about 20 % of the methane oxidation and up to 80 % of the oxidation of other VOCs. In other cases, enhanced VOC and VOC oxidation product concentration levels were found. For example, 15 % of the methyl peroxyl radicals are formed after the reaction of chlorine atoms with methane or methyl hydroperoxide. In the aqueous phase, changes in the oxidation of organics do only occur for highly oxidised organics without a C-H bond. For example, over 80 % of oxalic acid are oxidised by electron transfer with Cl₂ ^? in deliquescent particles during non-cloud periods.