Multi-variable error correction of regional climate models

Climate change impact research needs regional climate scenarios of multiple meteorological variables. Those variables are available from regional climate models (RCMs), but affected by considerable biases. We evaluate the application of an empirical-statistical error correction method, quantile mapping (QM), for a small ensemble of RCMs and six meteorological variables. Annual and monthly biases are reduced to close to zero by QM for all variables in most cases. Exceptions are found, if non-stationarity of the model’s error characteristics occur. Even in the worst cases of non-stationarity, QM clearly improves the biases of raw RCMs. In addition, QM successfully adjusts the distributions of the analysed variables. To approach the question whether time series and inter-variable relationships are still plausible after correction, we evaluate the root-mean-square error (RMSE), autocorrelation and inter-variable correlation. We found improvement or no clear effect in RMSE and autocorrelation, and no clear effect on the correlation between meteorological variables. These results demonstrate that QM retains the quality of the temporal structure in time series and the inter-variable dependencies of RCMs. It has to be emphasised that this cannot be interpreted as an improvement and that deficiencies of the RCMs in those features are retained as well. Our results give some indication for the performance of QM applied to future scenarios, since our evaluation relies on independent calibration and evaluation periods, which are affected by climate variability and change. The effect of non-stationarity, however, can be expected to be larger in far future. We demonstrate the retainment of the RCM’s temporal structure and inter-variable dependencies, and large improvements in biases. This qualifies QM as a valuable, though not perfect, method in the interface between climate models and climate change impact research. Nonetheless, in case of no correlation between re-analysis driven RCM and observation, one should consider that QM does not correct this correlation.     

Basic analysis of climate and urban bioclimate of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

Better understanding of urban microclimate and bioclimate of any city is imperative today when the world is constrained by both urbanisation and global climate change. Urbanisation generally triggers changes in land cover and hence influencing the urban local climate. Dar es Salaam city in Tanzania is one of the fast growing cities. Assessment of its urban climate and the human biometeorological conditions was done using the easily available synoptic meteorological data covering the period 2001–2011. In particular, the physiologically equivalent temperature (PET) was calculated using the RayMan software and results reveal that the afternoon period from December to February (DJF season) is relatively the most thermal stressful period to human beings in Dar es Salaam where PET values of above 35 °C were found. Additionally, the diurnal cycle of the individual meteorological elements that influence the PET index were analysed and found that air temperature of 30–35 °C dominate the afternoon period from 12:00 to 15:00 hours local standard time at about 60 % of occurrence. The current results, though considered as preliminary to the ongoing urban climate study in the city, provide an insight on how urban climate research is of significant importance in providing useful climatic information for ensuring quality of life and wellbeing of city dwellers.     

Topography-adjusted solar radiation indices and their importance in hydrology

Abstract

Solar radiation, direct and diffuse, is affected by surface characteristics, such as slope, aspect, altitude and shading. The paper examines the effects of topography on radiation, at multiple spatiotemporal scales, using suitable geometric methods for the direct and diffuse components. Two indices are introduced for comparing the direct radiation received by areas at the same and different latitudes. To investigate the profile of direct radiation across the whole of Greece, these are evaluated from an hourly to annual basis, via GIS techniques. Moreover, different approaches are examined for estimating the actual global radiation at operational spatial scales (sub-basin and terrain), according to the available meteorological data. The study indicates that the errors of typical hydrometeorological modelling formulas, which ignore the topographic effects and the seasonal allocation of direct and diffuse radiation, depend on the spatial scale and are non-uniformly distributed in time. In all cases, the estimations are improved by applying the proposed adjustment approaches. In particular, the adjustment of the measured global radiation ensures up to 10% increase of efficiency, while the modified Angström formula achieves slight (i.e. 2–4%) increase of efficiency and notable reduction of bias.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Mamassis, N., Efstratiadis, A. and Apostolidou, I.-G., 2012. Topography-adjusted solar radiation indices and their importance in hydrology. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (4), 756–775.     

Robust flood statistics: comparison of peak over threshold approaches based on monthly maxima and TL-moments

ABSTRACT

Flood quantile estimation based on partial duration series (peak over threshold, POT) represents a noteworthy alternative to the classical annual maximum approach since it enlarges the available information spectrum. Here the POT approach is discussed with reference to its benefits in increasing the robustness of flood quantile estimations. The classical POT approach is based on a Poisson distribution for the annual number of exceedences, although this can be questionable in some cases. Therefore, the Poisson distribution is compared with two other distributions (binomial and Gumbel-Schelling). The results show that only rarely is there a difference from the Poisson distribution. In the second part we investigate the robustness of flood quantiles derived from different approaches in the sense of their temporal stability against the occurrence of extreme events. Besides the classical approach using annual maxima series (AMS) with the generalized extreme value distribution and different parameter estimation methods, two different applications of POT are tested. Both are based on monthly maxima above a threshold, but one also uses trimmed L-moments (TL-moments). It is shown how quantile estimations based on this “robust” POT approach (rPOT) become more robust than AMS-based methods, even in the case of occasional extraordinary extreme events.

Editor M.C. Acreman Associate editor A. Viglione     

The simulation of European heat waves from an ensemble of regional climate models within the EURO-CORDEX project

The ability of a large ensemble of regional climate models to accurately simulate heat waves at the regional scale of Europe was evaluated. Within the EURO-CORDEX project, several state-of-the art models, including non-hydrostatic meso-scale models, were run for an extended time period (20 years) at high resolution (12 km), over a large domain allowing for the first time the simultaneous representation of atmospheric phenomena over a large range of spatial scales. Eight models were run in this configuration, and thirteen models were run at a classical resolution of 50 km. The models were driven with the same boundary conditions, the ERA-Interim re-analysis, and except for one simulation, no observations were assimilated in the inner domain. Results, which are compared with daily temperature and precipitation observations (ECA&D and E-OBS data sets) show that, even forced by the same re-analysis, the ensemble exhibits a large spread. A preliminary analysis of the sources of spread, using in particular simulations of the same model with different parameterizations, shows that the simulation of hot temperature is primarily sensitive to the convection and the microphysics schemes, which affect incoming energy and the Bowen ratio. Further, most models exhibit an overestimation of summertime temperature extremes in Mediterranean regions and an underestimation over Scandinavia. Even after bias removal, the simulated heat wave events were found to be too persistent, but a higher resolution reduced this deficiency. The amplitude of events as well as the variability beyond the 90th percentile threshold were found to be too strong in almost all simulations and increasing resolution did not generally improve this deficiency. Resolution increase was also shown to induce large-scale 90th percentile warming or cooling for some models, with beneficial or detrimental effects on the overall biases. Even though full causality cannot be established on the basis of this evaluation work, the drivers of such regional differences were shown to be linked to changes in precipitation due to resolution changes, affecting the energy partitioning. Finally, the inter-annual sequence of hot summers over central/southern Europe was found to be fairly well simulated in most experiments despite an overestimation of the number of hot days and of the variability. The accurate simulation of inter-annual variability for a few models is independent of the model bias. This indicates that internal variability of high summer temperatures should not play a major role in controlling inter-annual variability. Despite some improvements, especially along coastlines, the analyses conducted here did not allow us to generally conclude that a higher resolution is clearly beneficial for a correct representation of heat waves by regional climate models. Even though local-scale feedbacks should be better represented at high resolution, combinations of parameterizations have to be improved or adapted accordingly.     

Modified physiologically equivalent temperature—basics and applications for western European climate

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - A new thermal index, the modified physiologically equivalent temperature (mPET) has been developed for universal application in different climate zones. The...     

Geothermobarometry of a stilpnomelane–garnet-bearing metapegmatite: P–T constraints on the Eo-Alpine metamorphic overprint of the Austroalpine nappes north of the Tauern Window

The Ordovician Kellerjochgneiss (Schwaz Augengneiss) is a polymetamorphic orthogneiss-bearing unit and is part of the Austroalpine basement nappes north of the Tauern Window. Within the Kellerjochgneiss a small, strongly deformed metapegmatite dike occurs. The pegmatite crosscuts the gneiss discordantly and contains the mineral assemblage muscovite 1,2+plagioclase+K-feldspar+chlorite+quartz+garnet 1 (Alm_67–76Andr_0.9–2Sps_17–28Prp_0.4–5)+garnet 2 (Grs_36–46Alm_24–32Andr_8–21Sps_15–17Prp_0–1)±stilpnomelane±biotite±clinozoisite. The magmatic protolith assemblage is comprised of relict K-feldspar, quartz and garnet 1. Textural observations indicate that biotite and muscovite cores (muscovite 1) are either part of the magmatic- or an earlier (Variscan?) metamorphic assemblage. Geothermobarometry of the metapegmatite was done on the latest-stage (Eo-Alpine) mineral assemblage garnet 2+muscovite 2+chlorite+stilpnomelane+plagioclase+quartz. Calculations of H₂O-absent intersections in the system [KCNFMAS] with the multi-equilibrium program THERMOCALC v.3.1 yielded P–T estimates of 4.4 to 6.7 kbar and 321°C to 376°C. Calculations of the P–T conditions by using the assemblage muscovite 2+chlorite+stilpnomelane+quartz yielded slightly higher pressures of 6.4 to 7.2 kbar at temperatures of 310–325°C. Correlating these P–T data with geochronological data from the neighbouring lithologies (Kellerjochgneiss, Innsbruck Quartzphyllite, Wildschönau Schists) and with structural investigations from these units indicate that the P–T estimates obtained in this investigation represent the Eo-Alpine metamorphic overprint. Hence, these unusual rocks provide important information on the Eo-Alpine P–T conditions since most samples studied from the investigated Austroalpine basement nappes north of the Tauern Window rarely contain mineral assemblages suitable for geothermobarometry.     

Mobility and H2O loss from fluid inclusions in natural quartz crystals

Petrographic observations on quartz crystals from the Mole Granite (Australia) and other localities shed new light on the mechanisms of post-entrapment modification of fluid inclusions. These modifications include migration away from pseudosecondary trails, changes in fluid salinity and density, shape distortion and the formation of “sweat-haloes” around strongly deformed inclusions. Increases in fluid salinity, which usually are associated with inclusion migration, indicate water-losses of up to 50%. However, LA-ICP-MS-analysis of unmobilized and mobilized inclusions of the same trail reveals basically unchanged ratios of major – and trace element cations, with the exception of Li, which seems to be incorporated into the crystal lattice during migration. Despite the fact that all these modifications are closely related to deformation processes, they occur not only in mechanically deformed quartz, but also in free-standing crystals. In the latter samples, stress has been generated internally as a result of brazil-twinned growth and compositional zonation. These observations and their interpretation leads to a list of practical criteria that should help in differentiating between reliable and suspect fluid inclusions in other samples. Received: 17 November 1998 / Accepted: 16 April 1999     

Aquifer heat storage: sulphate reduction with acetate at increased temperatures

Aquifer thermal energy storage in urban and industrial areas can lead to an increase in subsurface temperature to 70 °C and more. Besides its impacts on mineral and sorption equilibria and chemical reaction kinetics in an aquifer, temperature sensitively influences microbial activity and thus redox processes, such as sulphate reduction. Microorganism species can only operate within limited temperature ranges and their adaptability to temperature is a crucial point for the assessment of the environmental consequences of subsurface heat storage. Column experiments with aquifer sediment and tap water at 10, 25, 40, and 70 °C showed that under the constant addition of acetate sulphate reduction could be initiated after 26–63 pore volumes exchanged at all temperatures. Fastest initiation of sulphate reduction with the highest reduction rates was found at 40 °C. Maximum rate constants during experimental run-time were 0.56 h^?1 at 40 °C and 0.33, 0.36, and 0.25 h^?1 at 10 and, 25, and 70 °C, respectively. Hence, microbial activity was enhanced by a temperature increase to 40 °C but was significantly lowered at 70 °C. At 25 °C methane was found in solution, indicating the presence of fermenting organisms; at 10, 40, and 70 °C no methane production was observed. It could be shown that redox processes in an aquifer generally can adapt to temperatures significantly higher than in situ temperature and that the efficiency of the reduction process can be enhanced by temperature increase to a certain limit. Enhancement of sulphate reduction in an aquifer due to temperature increase could also allow enhanced degradation of organic ground water contaminants such as BTEX, where sulphate is an important electron acceptor.     

Degradation of chlorinated ethylenes by Fe0: inhibition processes and mineral precipitation

. Granular zero-valent iron was used for the treatment of groundwater pollution caused by chlorinated ethylenes, mainly TCE, cis-DCE and VC at an industrial site. The rapidly decreasing rates of de-chlorination in the initial phase were attributed to the precipitation of carbonates and the development of hydrogen by anaerobic corrosion. After 70 pore volumes, sulphate was reduced by bacteria. From this point in time, the degradation of TCE was slightly accelerated whereas the de-chlorination rates of the other chlorinated ethylenes decreased only slowly. This relative improvement was assumed to be caused by the uptake of electron-transfer-blocking hydrogen by bacteria. Because the overall trend of the degradation rates is negative we conclude that the inhibitive effect of carbonate precipitation and hydrogen formation cannot be compensated for by the positive influence of the activity of sulphate-reducing bacteria.