Development of a generic concept to analyze the accessibility of emergency facilities in critical road infrastructure for disaster scenarios: exemplary application for the 2017 wildfires in Chile and Portugal

Natural Hazards - Natural hazards such as earthquakes, floods, or wildfires pose a serious threat to road infrastructure. Especially in emergency situations, the society depends on the road...     

Machine learning based identification of dominant controls on runoff dynamics

Hydrological models used for flood prediction in ungauged catchments are commonly fitted to regionally transferred data. The key issue of this procedure is to identify hydrologically similar catchments. Therefore, the dominant controls for the process of interest have to be known. In this study, we applied a new machine learning based approach to identify the catchment characteristics that can be used to identify the active processes controlling runoff dynamics. A random forest (RF) regressor has been trained to estimate the drainage velocity parameters of a geomorphologic instantaneous unit hydrograph (GIUH) in ungauged catchments, based on regionally available data. We analyzed the learning procedure of the algorithm and identified preferred donor catchments for each ungauged catchment. Based on the obtained machine learning results from catchment grouping, a classification scheme for drainage network characteristics has been derived. This classification scheme has been applied in a flood forecasting case study. The results demonstrate that the RF could be trained properly with the selected donor catchments to successfully estimate the required GIUH parameters. Moreover, our results showed that drainage network characteristics can be used to identify the influence of geomorphological dispersion on the dynamics of catchment response.     

Geomorphological investigations and luminescence dating in the southern part of the Khangay and the Valley of the Gobi Lakes (Central Mongolia)

Geomorphological investigations in the catchment area of the Baydragiyn river along the southern slope of the Khangay and in the Valley of the Gobi Lakes in western Mongolia provide evidence for Late Quaternary glaciations and lake‐level changes. Thermoluminescence (TL) and infrared optically stimulated luminescence (IRSL) dating of aeolian and colluvial sediments from the central Khangay place the sediments that overlie fluvial and glaciofluvial terraces in the Holocene. An age of 21 ka is determined for a sand deposit overlying the terrace that is related to the last glacial ice‐margin. Lacustrine sediments from higher beach lines in the Valley of the Gobi Lakes provide evidence for a slightly more humid period around 1.5 ka, and a larger extent of the lakes in the Early Holocene at about 8.5 ka, as also reported from other parts of Central Asia. Remnants of lacustrine sediments buried by alluvial gravel, and indicating a huge palaeolake in the basin of the Orog Nuur, however, date to the early stage of the last glaciation around 70 ka. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Between carbonatite and lamproite—Diamondiferous Torngat ultramafic lamprophyres formed by carbonate-fluxed melting of cratonic MARID-type metasomes

New U-Pb perovskite ages reveal that diamondiferous ultramafic lamprophyre magmas erupted through the Archean crust of northern Labrador and Quebec (eastern Canada) between ca. 610 and 565 Ma, a period of strong rifting activity throughout contiguous Laurentia and Baltica. The observed Torngat carbonate-rich aillikite/carbonatite and carbonate-poor mela-aillikite dyke varieties show a large spread in Sr-Nd-Hf-Pb isotope ratios with pronounced correlations between isotope systems. An isotopically depleted component is identified solely within aillikites (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr_i = 0.70323-0.70377; εNd_i = +1.2-+1.8; εHf_i = +1.4-+3.5; ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb_i = 18.2-18.5), whereas some aillikites and all mela-aillikites range to more enriched isotope signatures (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr_i = 0.70388-0.70523; εNd_i = −0.5 to −3.9; εHf_i = −0.6 to −6.0; ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb_i = 17.8-18.2). These contrasting isotopic characteristics of aillikites/carbonatites and mela-aillikites, along with subtle differences in their modal carbonate, SiO₂, Al₂O₃, Na₂O, Cs-Rb, and Zr-Hf contents, are consistent with two distinctive metasomatic assemblages of different age in the mantle magma source region.Integration of petrologic, geochemical, and isotopic information leads us to propose that the isotopically enriched component originated from a reduced phlogopite-richterite-Ti-oxide dominated source assemblage that is reminiscent of MARID suite xenoliths. In contrast, the isotopically depleted component was derived from a more oxidized phlogopite-carbonate dominated source assemblage. We argue that low-degree CO₂-rich potassic silicate melts from the convective upper mantle were preferentially channelled into an older, pre-existing MARID-type vein network at the base of the North Atlantic craton lithosphere, where they froze to form new phlogopite-carbonate dominated veins. Continued stretching and thinning of the cratonic lithosphere during the Late Neoproterozoic remobilized the carbonate-rich vein material and induced volatile-fluxed fusion of the MARID-type veins and the cold peridotite substrate. Isotopic modelling suggests that only 5-12% trace element contribution from such geochemically extreme MARID-type material is required to produce the observed compositional shift from the isotopically most depleted aillikites/carbonatites towards enriched mela-aillikites.We conclude that cold cratonic mantle lithosphere can host several generations of contrasting vein assemblages, and that each may have formed during past tectonic and magmatic events under distinctively different physicochemical conditions. Although cratonic MARID-type and carbonate-bearing veins in peridotite can be the respective sources for lamproite and carbonatite magmas when present as the sole metasome, their concomitant fusion in a complex source region may give rise to a whole new variety of deep volatile-rich magmas and we suggest that orangeites (formerly Group 2 kimberlites), kamafugites, and certain types of ultramafic lamprophyre are formed in this manner.     

Predicting Threshold Exceedance by Local Block Means in Soil Pollution Surveys

Soil contamination by heavy metals and organic pollutants around industrial premises is a problem in many countries around the world. Delineating zones where pollutants exceed tolerable levels is a necessity for successfully mitigating related health risks. Predictions of pollutants are usually required for blocks because remediation or regulatory decisions are imposed for entire parcels. Parcel areas typically exceed the observation support, but are smaller than the survey domain. Mapping soil pollution therefore involves a local change of support. The goal of this work is to find a simple, robust, and precise method for predicting block means (linear predictions) and threshold exceedance by block means (nonlinear predictions) from data observed at points that show a spatial trend. By simulations, we compared the performance of universal block kriging (UK), Gaussian conditional simulations (CS), constrained (CK), and covariance-matching constrained kriging (CMCK), for linear and nonlinear local change of support prediction problems. We considered Gaussian and positively skewed spatial processes with a nonstationary mean function and various scenarios for the autocorrelated error. The linear predictions were assessed by bias and mean square prediction error and the nonlinear predictions by bias and Peirce skill scores.     

U–Pb zircon and monazite age constraints on granulite-facies metamorphism and deformation in the Strangways Metamorphic Complex (central Australia)

The age of Proterozoic granulite facies metamorphism and deformation in the Strangways Metamorphic Complex (SMC) of central Australia is determined on zircon grown in syn-metamorphic and syn-deformational orthopyroxene-bearing, enderbitic, veins. SHRIMP zircon studies suggest that M ₁–M ₂ and the correlated periods of intense deformation (D ₁–D ₂) are part of a single tectonothermal event between 1,717±2 and 1,732±7 Ma. It is considered unlikely that the two metamorphic phases (M ₁, M ₂) suggested by earlier work represent separate events occurring within 10–25 Ma of each other. Previous higher estimates for the age of M ₁ granulite metamorphism in the SMC (Early Strangways event at ca. 1,770 Ma) based on U–Pb zircon dating of granitic, intrusive rocks, are not believed to relate to the metamorphism, but to represent pre-metamorphic intrusion ages. Conventional multi-grain U–Pb monazite analyses on high-grade metasediments from three widely spaced localities in the western SMC yield ²⁰⁷Pb/ ²³⁵U ages between 1,728±11 and 1,712±2 Ma. The age range of the monazites corresponds to the SHRIMP zircon ages in the granulitic veins and is interpreted to record monazite growth (prograde in the metasedimentary rocks). The data imply a maximum time-span of 30 Ma for high-grade metamorphism and deformation in the SMC. There is, thus, no evidence for an extremely long period of continuous high-temperature conditions from 1,770 to ca. 1,720 Ma as previously proposed. The results firmly establish that the SMC has a very different high-grade metamorphic history than the neighbouring Harts Range, where upper amphibolite facies metamorphism in the Palaeozoic caused widespread growth or recrystallization of monazite.     

A simple boom assembly for the shipboard deployment of air-sea interaction instruments

We have developed a simple boom for use in measuring meteorological variables from a ship. The main structural member of the boom, a triangular communications tower with rollers attached along its bottom side, is deployed horizontally from a long, flat deck, such as a helicopter deck, and will support a 100-kg payload at its outboard end. The boom is easy to deploy, requires minimal ship modifications, and provides ready access to the instruments mounted on it. And because it is designed for use with the ship crosswind, oceanographic work can go on at the same time as the air-sea interaction measurements.We describe our use of the boom on the Mikhail Somov during a cruise into the Antarctic sea ice and present some representative measurements made with instruments mounted on it. Theory, experiment, and our data all imply that instruments deployed windward from a rear helicopter deck can reach air undisturbed by the ship. Such an instrument site has clear advantages over the more customary mast, bow, or buoy locations.     

Offset dependence of overburden time-shifts from ultrasonic data

Depletion or injection into a reservoir implies stress changes and strains in the reservoir and its surroundings. This may lead to measurable time-shifts for seismic waves propagating in the subsurface. To better understand the offset dependence of time-shifts in the overburden, we have systematically quantified the time-shifts of three different overburden shales in controlled laboratory tests. These experiments may be viewed as an analogue to the time-shifts recorded from seismic field surveys. For a range of different stress paths, defined as the ratio between the horizontal and the vertical stress changes, the changes of the P-wave velocities in different directions were measured such that the offset dependence of time-shifts for different stress paths could be studied. The time-shifts are stress path dependent, which is particularly pronounced at large offsets. For all stress paths, the time-shifts exhibit a linearly decreasing trend with increasing offset, that is, a negative offset gradient. At zero offset, for which the ray path is normal to the bedding, the time-shifts are similar for all investigated stress paths. The isotropic stress path is associated with the smallest offset gradient of the time-shifts. In contrast, the constant-mean-stress path shows the largest gradient with a flip in the polarity of the time-shifts for the largest offsets. The separate contributions from the strain and velocity changes to the time-shifts were also quantified. The time-shifts for the isotropic stress path are dominated by the contribution from velocity changes at all offsets. In contrast, the strain contributes significantly to the time-shifts at small offsets for the constant-mean-stress path. This shows that the offset dependence in pre-stack seismic data may be a key to understand the changes of subsurface stresses, pore pressure and strain upon depletion or injection. To utilize this knowledge from laboratory experiments, calibrated rock physics models and correlations are needed to constrain the seismic time-shifts and to obtain an adequately updated geological model reflecting the true anisotropic nature of the subsurface. This may have important implications for improved recovery and safety, particularly in mature fields.     

Validation of the three-dimensional ECOHAM model in the German Bight for 2004 including population dynamics of Pseudocalanus elongatus

A three-dimensional ecosystem model for the North Sea which includes competition between Pseudocalanus elongatus and the rest of the zooplankton biomass was applied to describe the seasonal cycle of zooplankton in 2003–2004. The paper presents the comparison of simulated stage-resolved abundances with copepod counts at several stations in the German Bight during the GLOBEC-Germany project from February to October 2004. A validation of influential state variables gives confidence that the model is able to calculate reliably the stage development and abundances of P. elongatus as well as the range of bulk zooplankton biomass, and thus the ratio of population biomass to total biomass. In the German Bight, the population is below 20% in spring. The ratio increases up to 50% during summer. The number of generations was estimated from peaks in egg abundance to about 4–8 generations of P. elongatus in the southern North Sea. A mean of four generations per year were estimated in the central North Sea, six to eight generations northwest of the Dogger Bank (tails end) and five generations in the German Bight.     

New multifunctional hunting landscapes in Denmark

Between 1992 and 2008 subsidization of mandatory set aside land under the EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) gave rise to the establishment of a characteristic type of multifunctional hunting landscapes in Denmark, primarily located on fallow land in tilled valley bottoms. A national survey of these landscapes in 2006 has been carried out and 1061 hunting areas have been identified nationwide. Subsidies relating to set aside land acted as a supplementary type of income, which supported the development of multifunctional land use on marginal soils where the income from hunting and subsidies in combination was a viable alternative to monofunctional rotational agriculture. Hunting landscapes developed as the consequence of landscape management strategies designed to comply with the requirements of the CAP while improving habitat conditions for wildlife and increasing income from hunting rental activities. Forty-seven percent of the hunting landscapes in 2006 were in rotational production in 2010 while 19% were used for other agricultural purposes and 34% were taken out of the subsidy regime and removed from the general agricultural register. In 2012, a total of 431 such areas ? 41% of the areas identified in 2006 ? were still used for hunting. The number and geographical distribution of the hunting landscapes seems closely related to the potential average hunting rent, the level of urbanisation and the occurrence of manorial estates with traditions for multifunctional land use as part of their economic strategy. Implications for the ongoing discussion on land use policy concerning land sharing vs. land sparing is discussed.