Impact of clouds on the surface radiation balance of the Arctic Ocean

Summary The relationship between clouds and the surface radiative fluxes over the Arctic Ocean are explored by conducting a series of modelling experiments using a one-dimensional thermodynamic sea ice model. The sensitivity of radiative flux to perturbations in cloud fraction and cloud optical depth are determined. These experiments illustrate the substantial effect that clouds have on the state of the sea ice and on the surface radiative fluxes. The effect of clouds on the net flux of radiation at the surface is very complex over the Arctic Ocean particularly due to the presence of the underlying sea ice. Owing to changes in surface albedo and temperature associated with changing cloud properties, there is a strong non-linearity between cloud properties and surface radiative fluxes. The model results are evaluated in three different contexts: 1) the sensitivity of the arctic surface radiation balance to uncertainties in cloud properties; 2) the impact of interannual variability in cloud characteristics on surface radiation fluxes and sea ice surface characteristics; and 3) the impact of climate change and the resulting changes in cloud properties on the surface radiation fluxes and sea ice characteristics.With 11 Figures     

A theory for the scalar roughness and the scalar transfer coefficients over snow and sea ice

Although the bulk aerodynamic transfer coefficients for sensible (C _H ) and latent (C _E ) heat over snow and sea ice surfaces are necessary for accurately modeling the surface energy budget, they have been measured rarely. This paper, therefore, presents a theoretical model that predicts neutral-stability values of C _H and C _E as functions of the wind speed and a surface roughness parameter. The crux of the model is establishing the interfacial sublayer profiles of the scalars, temperature and water vapor, over aerodynamically smooth and rough surfaces on the basis of a surface-renewal model in which turbulent eddies continually scour the surface, transferring scalar contaminants across the interface by molecular diffusion. Matching these interfacial sublayer profiles with the semi-logarithmic inertial sublayer profiles yields the roughness lengths for temperature and water vapor. When coupled with a model for the drag coefficient over snow and sea ice based on actual measurements, these roughness lengths lead to the transfer coefficients. C _E is always a few percent larger than CH. Both decrease monotonically with increasing wind speed for speeds above 1 m s^–1, and both increase at all wind speeds as the surface gets rougher. Both, nevertheless, are almost always between 1.0 × 10^–3 and 1.5 × 10^–3.     

Cross-national patterns of governance mechanisms in nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement

ABSTRACT

The continuous submission and scaling-up of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) constitutes a key feature of the Paris Agreement. In their NDCs, states propose governance mechanisms for implementation of climate action, in turn distinguishing appropriate roles for the state in climate governance. Clarity on Parties’ suggested roles for the state makes explicit assumptions on the premise of climate policy, in turn contributing to enhanced transparency in negotiations on the scaling-up of NDCs. This also speaks to ongoing debates on roles for the state in climate governance literature. This article identifies the governance mechanisms proposed by states in their NDCs and the roles for the state envisioned by those governance mechanisms, and also examines how cross-national patterns of roles for the state break or converge with conventional patterns of international politics. The analysis shows that states propose a plurality of roles, which to different extents may be complementary or conflictual. We conclude that income, region, and the Annexes under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are important for understanding suggested roles for the state, but that there are nuances to be further explored. We argue that this paper has three key findings: i) a majority of states rely on market mechanisms to implement their NDCs while rules on implementation and assessment of market mechanisms are still an outstanding issue in the negotiations, meaning that resolving this issue will be essential; ii) the process for evaluating and assessing qualitative governance mechanisms needs to be specified; and iii) increased awareness of differing views on the state’s roles makes explicit different perspectives on what constitutes an ambitious and legitimate contribution to combating climate change.

Key policy insights

• A majority of states (> 75%) envision the state as regulator (creating and strengthening legislation), market facilitator (creating and maintaining market structures), or facilitator (creating more favourable material conditions for climate-friendly behaviour).

• Greater awareness of differing views on roles for the state can increase understanding of different perspectives on ambition and legitimacy of contributions, in turn facilitating trust in negotiations.

• A distinction between substantive and procedural qualitative governance mechanisms and their function and interaction would facilitate the stocktaking dialogues.

     

Chemical Mechanism Development: Laboratory Studies and Model Applications

Within the German Tropospheric Research Programme (TFS) numerous kinetic and mechanistic studies on the tropospheric reaction/degradation of the following reactants were carried out: oxygenated VOC, aromatic VOC, biogenic VOC, short-lived intermediates, such as alkoxy and alkylperoxy radicals.At the conception of the projects these selected groups were classes of VOC or intermediates for which the atmospheric oxidation mechanisms were either poorly characterised or totally unknown. The motivation for these studies was the attainment of significant improvements in our understanding of the atmospheric chemical oxidation processes of these compounds, particularly with respect to their involvement in photooxidant formation in the troposphere. In the present paper the types of experimental investigations performed and the results obtained within the various projects are briefly summarised. The major achievements are highlighted and discussed in terms of their contribution to improving our understanding of the chemical processes controlling photosmog formation in the troposphere.     

Effect of KCl on melting in the Mg<Subscript>2</Subscript>SiO<Subscript>4</Subscript>–MgSiO<Subscript>3</Subscript>–H<Subscript>2</Subscript>O system at 5 GPa

To examine the effect of KCl-bearing fluids on the melting behavior of the Earth’s mantle, we conducted experiments in the Mg₂SiO₄–MgSiO₃–H₂O and Mg₂SiO₄–MgSiO₃–KCl–H₂O systems at 5 GPa. In the Mg₂SiO₄–MgSiO₃–H₂O system, the temperature of the fluid-saturated solidus is bracketed between 1,200–1,250°C, and both forsterite and enstatite coexist with the liquid under supersolidus conditions. In the Mg₂SiO₄–MgSiO₃–KCl–H₂O systems with molar Cl/(Cl + H₂O) ratios of 0.2, 0.4, and 0.6, the temperatures of the fluid-saturated solidus are bracketed between 1,400–1,450°C, 1,550–1,600°C, and 1,600–1,650°C, respectively, and only forsterite coexists with liquid under supersolidus conditions. This increase in the temperature of the solidus demonstrates the significant effect of KCl on reducing the activity of H₂O in the fluid in the Mg₂SiO₄–MgSiO₃–H₂O system. The change in the melting residues indicates that the incongruent melting of enstatite (enstatite = forsterite + silica-rich melt) could extend to pressures above 5 GPa in KCl-bearing systems, in contrast to the behavior in the KCl-free system.     

Multi-metal contaminant dynamics in temporarily flooded soil under sulfate limitation

In many river basins, floodplain soils have accumulated a variety of metal contaminants, which might be released during periods of flooding. We investigated the dynamics of copper, cadmium, lead, zinc, and nickel in a contaminated freshwater floodplain soil under a realistic sulfate-limited flooding regime in microcosm experiments. We found that most contaminants were initially mobilized by processes driven by the reductive dissolution of Fe(III) and Mn(IV, III) (hydr)oxides. Subsequently, bacterial sulfate respiration resulted in the transformation of the entire available sulfate (2.3 mmol/kg) into chromous reducible sulfur (CRS). Cu K-edge X-ray absorption fine structure (XAFS) spectroscopy revealed that the soil Cu speciation changed from predominantly Cu(II) bound to soil organic matter (SOM) intermittently to 14% metallic Cu(0) and subsequently to 66% copper sulfide (Cu_xS). These Cu_xS precipitates accounted for most of the formed CRS, suggesting that Cu_xS was the dominant sulfide phase formed in the flooded soil. Sequential metal extractions, in agreement with CRS results, suggested that easily mobilizable Cd was completely and Pb partially sequestered in sulfide precipitates, controlling their dissolved concentrations to below detection limits. In contrast, Zn and Ni (as well as Fe) were hardly sequestered into sulfide phases, so that micromolar levels of dissolved Zn and Ni (and millimolar dissolved Fe(II)) persisted in the reduced soil. The finding that Cu, Cd, and Pb were sequestered (but hardly any Zn, Ni, and Fe) is consistent with the thermodynamically predicted sulfide ladder following the increasing solubility products of the respective metal sulfides. The observation that Cd and Pb were sequestered in sulfides despite the presence of remaining SOM-bound Cu(II) suggested that the kinetics of Cu(II) desorption, diffusion, and/or Cu_xS precipitation interfered with the sulfide ladder. We conclude that the dynamics of multiple metal contaminants are intimately coupled under sulfate limitation by the relative thermodynamic stabilities and formation kinetics of the respective metal sulfides.     

Rapid and cyclic aeolian deposition during the Last Glacial in European loess: a high-resolution record from Nussloch, Germany

This paper reports the results of an investigation of the Weichselian Upper Pleniglacial loess sequences of Nussloch (Rhine Valley, Germany) based on stratigraphy, palaeopedology, sedimentology, palynology, malacology and geochemistry (δ¹³C), supported by radiocarbon, TL and OSL dating. Grain-size and magnetic susceptibility records are taken at 5 cm intervals from the Upper Pleniglacial (UPG) loess. The data indicate cyclic variations in loess deposition between ca 34 and 17 ka, when the sedimentation rate is especially high (1.0–1.2 m per ka for more than 10 m). The grain-size index (GSI: ratio of coarse silt versus fine silt and clay) shows variations, which are assumed to be an indirect measurement of wind intensity. The sedimentation rate, interpreted from the profiles, indicates high values in loess (Loess events LE-1 to LE-7) and low or negligible values in tundra gley horizons G1 to G8. OSL ages from the loess and ¹⁴C dates from organic matter in the loess show that loess deposition was rapid but was interrupted by shorter periods of reduced aeolian sedimentation. Comparison between the data from Nussloch and other European sequences demonstrates a progressive coarsening of the loess deposits between ca 30 and 22 ka. This coarsening trend ends with a short but major grain-size decrease and is followed by an increase to a new maximum at 20 ± 2 ka (“W” shape). Correlation between the loess GSI and the Greenland ice-core dust records, suggests a global connection between North Atlantic and Western European global atmospheric circulation and wind regimes. In addition, the typical Upper Pleniglacial loess deposition begins at ca 30–31 ka, close to Heinrich event (HE) 3, and the main period of loess sedimentation at about 25 ± 2 ka is coeval to HE 2. Correlation of magnetic susceptibility and grain-size records shows that the periods, characterised by high GSI, coincide with an increase in the amount of ferromagnetic minerals reworked from the Rhine alluvial plain. They suggest enhancement in the frequency of the storms from N–NW. These results are integrated within a palaeogeographical model of dust transport and deposition in Western Europe for the Weichselian Upper Pleniglacial (or Late Pleniglacial).     

Physical and economic bias in climate change research: a scientometric study of IPCC Third Assessment Report

This study demonstrates that IPCC Third Assessment Report is strongly dominated by Natural sciences, especially the Earth sciences. The Social sciences are dominated by Economics. The IPCC assessment also results in the separation of the Earth, Biological and Social sciences. The integration that occurs is mainly between closely related scientific fields. The research community consequently imposes a physical and economic bias and a separation of scientific fields that the IPCC reproduces in the policy sphere. It is argued that this physical and economic bias distorts a comprehensive understanding of climate change and that the weak integration of scientific fields hinders climate change from being fully addressed as an integral environmental and social problem. If climate change is to be understood, evaluated and responded to in its fullness, the IPCC must broaden its knowledge base and challenge the anthropocentric worldview that places humans outside of nature.     

Early-Morning Flow Transition in a Valley in Low-Mountain Terrain Under Clear-Sky Conditions

We investigate the evolution of the early-morning boundary layer in a low-mountain valley in south-western Germany during COPS (convective and orographically induced precipitation study) in summer 2007. The term low-mountain refers to a mountainous region with a relief of gentle slopes and with an absolute altitude that remains under a specified height (usually 1,500 m a.s.l.). A subset of 23 fair weather days from the campaign was selected to study the transition of the boundary-layer flow in the early morning. The typical valley atmosphere in the morning hours was characterized by a stable temperature stratification and a pronounced valley wind system. During the reversal period—called the low wind period—of the valley wind system (duration of 1–2 h), the horizontal flow was very weak and the conditions for free convection were fulfilled close to the ground. Ground-based sodar observations of the vertical wind show enhanced values of upward motion, and the corresponding statistical properties differ from those observed under windless convective conditions over flat terrain. Large-eddy simulations of the boundary-layer transition in the valley were conducted, and statistical properties of the simulated flow agree with the observed quantities. Spatially coherent turbulence structures are present in the temporal as well as in the ensemble mean analysis. Thus, the complex orography induces coherent convective structures at predictable, specific locations during the early-morning low wind situations. These coherent updrafts, found in both the sodar observations and the simulation, lead to a flux counter to the gradient of the stably stratified valley atmosphere and reach up to the heights of the surrounding ridges. Furthermore, the energy balance in the surface layer during the low wind periods is closed. However, it becomes unclosed after the onset of the valley wind. The partition into the sensible and the latent heat fluxes indicates that missing flux components of sensible heat are the main reason for the unclosed energy balance in the considered situations. This result supports previously published investigations on the energy balance closure.     

Extended regional climate model projections for Europe until the mid-twentyfirst century: combining ENSEMBLES and CMIP3

This study aims at sharpening the existing knowledge of expected seasonal mean climate change and its uncertainty over Europe for the two key climate variables air temperature and precipitation amount until the mid-twentyfirst century. For this purpose, we assess and compensate the global climate model (GCM) sampling bias of the ENSEMBLES regional climate model (RCM) projections by combining them with the full set of the CMIP3 GCM ensemble. We first apply a cross-validation in order to assess the skill of different statistical data reconstruction methods in reproducing ensemble mean and standard deviation. We then select the most appropriate reconstruction method in order to fill the missing values of the ENSEMBLES simulation matrix and further extend the matrix by all available CMIP3 GCM simulations forced by the A1B emission scenario. Cross-validation identifies a randomized scaling approach as superior in reconstructing the ensemble spread. Errors in ensemble mean and standard deviation are mostly less than 0.1 K and 1.0 % for air temperature and precipitation amount, respectively. Reconstruction of the missing values reveals that expected seasonal mean climate change of the ENSEMBLES RCM projections is not significantly biased and that the associated uncertainty is not underestimated due to sampling of only a few driving GCMs. In contrast, the spread of the extended simulation matrix is partly significantly lower, sharpening our knowledge about future climate change over Europe by reducing uncertainty in some regions. Furthermore, this study gives substantial weight to recent climate change impact studies based on the ENSEMBLES projections, since it confirms the robustness of the climate forcing of these studies concerning GCM sampling.