On the robustness of ENSO teleconnections

Using observations covering the last 128 years we show that apparent changes in El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections can be explained by chance and stem from sampling variability. This result is backed by experiments in which an atmosphere model is driven by 123 years of observed sea surface temperature. The possibility of ENSO teleconnection changes in a warming climate is further investigated using coupled GCMs driven by past and projected future greenhouse gas concentrations. These runs do not exclude physical changes in the teleconnection strength but do not agree on their magnitude and location. If existing at all, changes in the strength of ENSO teleconnection, other than obtained by chance, are small and will only be detectable on centennial time scales.     

Climate change effects on winter chill for tree crops with chilling requirements on the Arabian Peninsula

Fruit production systems that rely on winter chill for breaking of dormancy might be vulnerable to climatic change. We investigated decreases in the number of winter chilling hours (0–7.2°C) in four mountain oases of Oman, a marginal area for the production of fruit trees with chilling requirements. Winter chill was calculated from long-term hourly temperature records. These were generated based on the correlation of hourly temperature measurements in the oases with daylength and daily minimum and maximum temperatures recorded at a nearby weather station. Winter chill was estimated for historic temperature records between 1983 and 2008, as well as for three sets of synthetic 100-year weather records, generated to represent historic conditions, and climatic changes likely to occur within the next 30 years (temperatures elevated by 1°C and 2°C). Our analysis detected a decrease in the numbers of chilling hours in high-elevation oases by an average of 1.2–9.5 h/year between 1983 and 2008, a period during which, according to the scenario analysis, winter chill was sufficient for most important species in most years in the highest oasis. In the two climate change scenarios, pomegranates, the most important tree crop, received insufficient chilling in 13% and 75% of years, respectively. While production of most traditional fruit trees is marginal today, with trees barely fulfilling their chilling requirements, such production might become impossible in the near future. Similar developments are likely to affect other fruit production regions around the world.     

Early-Morning Flow Transition in a Valley in Low-Mountain Terrain Under Clear-Sky Conditions

We investigate the evolution of the early-morning boundary layer in a low-mountain valley in south-western Germany during COPS (convective and orographically induced precipitation study) in summer 2007. The term low-mountain refers to a mountainous region with a relief of gentle slopes and with an absolute altitude that remains under a specified height (usually 1,500 m a.s.l.). A subset of 23 fair weather days from the campaign was selected to study the transition of the boundary-layer flow in the early morning. The typical valley atmosphere in the morning hours was characterized by a stable temperature stratification and a pronounced valley wind system. During the reversal period—called the low wind period—of the valley wind system (duration of 1–2 h), the horizontal flow was very weak and the conditions for free convection were fulfilled close to the ground. Ground-based sodar observations of the vertical wind show enhanced values of upward motion, and the corresponding statistical properties differ from those observed under windless convective conditions over flat terrain. Large-eddy simulations of the boundary-layer transition in the valley were conducted, and statistical properties of the simulated flow agree with the observed quantities. Spatially coherent turbulence structures are present in the temporal as well as in the ensemble mean analysis. Thus, the complex orography induces coherent convective structures at predictable, specific locations during the early-morning low wind situations. These coherent updrafts, found in both the sodar observations and the simulation, lead to a flux counter to the gradient of the stably stratified valley atmosphere and reach up to the heights of the surrounding ridges. Furthermore, the energy balance in the surface layer during the low wind periods is closed. However, it becomes unclosed after the onset of the valley wind. The partition into the sensible and the latent heat fluxes indicates that missing flux components of sensible heat are the main reason for the unclosed energy balance in the considered situations. This result supports previously published investigations on the energy balance closure.     

Das Verhalten des Mikroorganismus Metallogenium spec. in einer kontinuierlichen Kultur

A series of 7 growth experiments with Metallogenium sp. was conducted in a flow-through reactor (chemostat). The results demonstrate that Metallogenium sp. grows under simulated lake water conditions in the laboratory. Metallogenium reacted in the chemostat in the same way as a microorganism. The growth rates of the microorganism Metallogenium were determined. It can be concluded therefore that the maximal growth rate at a temperature of 15 °C was 0.7 d⁻¹.     

Topography and morphodynamics in the German Bight using SAR and optical remote sensing data

Morphological changes in coastal areas, especially in river estuaries, are of high interest in many parts of the world. Satellite data from both optical and radar sensors can help to monitor and investigate these changes. Data from both kinds of sensors being available for up to 30 years now, allow examinations over large timescales, while high resolution sensors developed within the last decade allow increased accuracy. So the creation of digital elevation models (DEMs) of, for example, the wadden sea from a series of satellite images is already possible. ENVISAT, successfully launched on March 1, 2002, continues the line of higher resolution synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imaging sensors with its ASAR instrument and now also allows several polarization modes for better separation of land and water areas. This article gives an overview of sensors and algorithms for waterline determination as well as several applications. Both optical and SAR images are considered. Applications include morphodynamic monitoring studies and DEM generation.

Catchments of German surface water bodies

The European Water Framework Directive demands to assess and report the chemical and ecological status of water bodies (WB). Linking their status to drivers and pressures and deriving suitable mitigation measures require knowledge of the shape and area of WB catchments. We derived a network of 26 570 WB catchments in Germany using the hydrologically-defined drainage basins of the German federal states. We established a network of 338 149 drainage basins. This network underwent plausibility checks and a validation with the catchment areas of 348 monitoring stations across Germany. To this network, we assigned the longest intersecting or the next downstream WB code. To account for geometric inaccuracies we revised spurious intersections resulting in splittings and cycles in the WB network. As WB may be ecologically but not hydrologically well defined, we split them at confluences and intersections. The network of drainage basins matched the monitoring stations with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 1.00. The final WB network contained 11 005 out of the 11 586 original WBs longer than 1 m. The corresponding local catchment areas range from <<0.0001 to 446 km², with a median of 10 km². The dataset combines the requirements of hydrological and ecological modelling applications at basin or national scales with the needs of the EU reporting which can foster their acceptance by state authorities and river-basin management.     

A contribution to seismic shear design of R/C walls in dual structures

The paper focuses on the seismic response of walls in dual (frame + wall) structures, with particular emphasis on shear behaviour. Although dual structures are widely used in earthquake-resistant medium-rise and high-rise buildings, the provisions of modern seismic codes regarding design of walls for shear are not fully satisfactory, particularly in the (common) case that walls of substantially different length form part of the same structure. Relevant provisions of the leading seismic codes are first summarised and their limitations discussed. Then an extensive parametric study is presented, involving two multistorey dual systems, one with identical walls, and one with walls with unequal length, designed to the provisions of Eurocode 8 for two different ductility classes (H and M). The walls of the same structures are also designed to other methods such as those used in New Zealand and Greece. The resulting different designs are then assessed by subjecting the structures to a suite of strong ground motions, carrying out inelastic time history analysis, and comparing the results against design action effects. It is found that although modern code procedures generally lead to satisfactory performance (differences among them do exist), the design of walls seems to be less appropriate in the case of unequal length walls. For this case a modified procedure is proposed, consisting of an additional factor to account for the relative contribution of walls of the same length to the total base and an improved envelope of wall shears along the height; this improved method seems to work better than the other procedures evaluated herein, but further calibration is clearly required.     

Improvement of Global Hydrological Models Using GRACE Data

After about 6 years of GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellite mission operation, an unprecedented global data set on the spatio-temporal variations of the Earth’s water storage is available. The data allow for a better understanding of the water cycle at the global scale and for large river basins. This review summarizes the experiences that have been made when comparing GRACE data with simulation results of global hydrological models and it points out the prerequisites and perspectives for model improvements by combination with GRACE data. When evaluated qualitatively at the global scale, water storage variations on the continents from GRACE agreed reasonably well with model predictions in terms of their general seasonal dynamics and continental-scale spatial patterns. Differences in amplitudes and phases of water storage dynamics revealed in more detailed analyses were mainly attributed to deficiencies in the meteorological model forcing data, to missing water storage compartments in the model, but also to limitations and errors of the GRACE data. Studies that transformed previously identified model deficiencies into adequate modifications of the model structure or parameters are still rare. Prerequisites for a comprehensive improvement of large-scale hydrological models are in particular the consistency of GRACE observation and model variables in terms of filtering, reliable error estimates, and a full assessment of the water balance. Using improvements in GRACE processing techniques, complementary observation data, multi-model evaluations and advanced methods of multi-objective calibration and data assimilation, considerable progress in large-scale hydrological modelling by integration of GRACE data can be expected.     

Total least-squares adjustment of condition equations

The usual least-squares adjustment within an Errors-in-Variables (EIV) model is often described as Total Least-Squares Solution (TLSS), just as the usual least-squares adjustment within a Random Effects Model (REM) has become popular under the name of Least-Squares Collocation (without trend). In comparison to the standard Gauss-Markov Model (GMM), the EIV-Model is less informative whereas the REM is more informative. It is known under which conditions exactly the GMM or the REM can be equivalently replaced by a model of condition equations or, more generally, by a Gauss-Helmert Model. Similar equivalency conditions are, however, still unknown for the EIV-Model once it is transformed into such a model of condition equations. In a first step, it is shown in this contribution how the respective residual vector and residual matrix look like if the TLSS is applied to condition equations with a random coefficient matrix to describe the transformation of the random error vector. The results are demonstrated using a numeric example which shows that this approach may be valuable in its own right.