An intercomparison of regional climate simulations for Europe: assessing uncertainties in model projections

Ten regional climate models (RCM) have been integrated with the standard forcings of the PRUDENCE experiment: IPCC-SRES A2 radiative forcing and Hadley Centre boundary conditions. The response over Europe, calculated as the difference between the 2071–2100 and the 1961–1990 means can be viewed as an expected value about which various uncertainties exist. Uncertainties are measured here by variance in eight sub-European boxes. Four sources of uncertainty can be evaluated with the material provided by the PRUDENCE project. Sampling uncertainty is due to the fact that the model climate is estimated as an average over a finite number of years (30). Model uncertainty is due to the fact that the models use different techniques to discretize the equations and to represent sub-grid effects. Radiative uncertainty is due to the fact that IPCC-SRES A2 is merely one hypothesis. Some RCMs have been run with another scenario of greenhouse gas concentration (IPCC-SRES B2). Boundary uncertainty is due to the fact that the regional models have been run under the constraint of the same global model. Some RCMs have been run with other boundary forcings. The contribution of the different sources varies according to the field, the region and the season, but the role of boundary forcing is generally greater than the role of the RCM, in particular for temperature. Maps of minimum expected 2m temperature and precipitation responses for the IPCC-A2 scenario show that, despite the above mentioned uncertainties, the signal from the PRUDENCE ensemble is significant.     

Temporal variability in summertime bottom hypoxia in shallow areas of Mobile Bay,Alabama

This paper addresses temporal variability in bottom hypoxia in broad shallow areas of Mobile Bay, Alabama. Time-series data collected in the summer of 2004 from one station (mean depth of 4 m) exhibit bottom dissolved oxygen (DO) variations associated with various time scales of hours to days. Despite a large velocity shear, stratification was strong enough to suppress vertical mixing most of the time. Bottom DO was closely related to the vertical salinity gradient (ΔS). Hypoxia seldom occurred when ΔS (over 2.5 m) was <2 psu and occurred almost all the time when ΔS was >8 psu in the absence of extreme events like hurricanes. Oxygen balance between vertical mixing and total oxygen demand was considered for bottom water from which oxygen demand and diffusive oxygen flux were estimated. The estimated decay rates at 20°C ranging between 0.175–0.322 d⁻¹ and the corresponding oxygen consumption as large as 7.4 g O₂ m⁻² d⁻¹ fall at the upper limit of previously reported ranges. The diffusive oxygen flux and the corresponding vertical diffusivity estimated for well mixed conditions range between 8.6–9.5 g O₂ m⁻² d⁻¹ and 2.6–2.9 m² d⁻¹, respectively. Mobile Bay hypoxia is likely to be associated with a large oxygen demand, supported by both water column and sediment oxygen demands, so that oxygen supply from surface water during destratification events would be quickly exhausted to return to hypoxic conditions within a few hours to days after destratification events are terminated.     

Predation on the rocky shores of Patagonia,Argentina

Rocky intertidal communities of Argentinean Patagonia are exposed to harsh physical conditions caused by dry, strong southern trade winds (mean speed 45 km h^-1, gusts up to 140 km h^-1) that result in intense desiccation of intertidal organisms. Predator distributions in these communities were evaluated from April 2003 to December 2004 at two exposed headlands and six protected bays in Cabo dos Bahias (44°50′S, 65°40′W). Crabs and sea stars dominated the predator assemblage, with occasional scavenger snails and fish also present. During low tide, predators were never found in the open but were always associated with shelter (primarily within mussel beds and coralline algae), suggesting a strong predator dependency on foundation species to buffer them from physical stress. Few predators (mostly crabs) emerged from shelter at high tide. Unlike the larger predators found on Chilean rocky shores, invertebrate predators in this system are diminutive, generally < 2 cm. The lone exception was the newly discovered invasive green crab,Carcinus mamas. Feeding trials, gut content analyses, and visual surveys indicated that native predators feed primarily on small, soft-bodied prey.C. mamas fed on slow-moving and sessile animals, including the super abundant musselPerumytilus purpuratus, with much greater voracity than native predators. Because native intertidal organisms are dependent on mussel beds and coralline algae for shelter from desiccation, successful invasion ofC. mamas may lead to a significant decrease in native diversity by consuming foundation species. This study represents a preliminary survey of predator distributions and feeding habits on the rocky shores of Argentinean Patagonia and provides important baseline data to evaluate trophic linkages and predatory effects on Patagonian rocky shores.     

Spatial and temporal variability of mesozooplankton and tintinnid ciliates in a seasonally hypersaline estuary

The zooplankton community of Mission Bay, San Diego, California, was monitored over two years, to study spatial and temporal patterns and the response of zooplankton species composition to environmental variation. Data were collected every two weeks from six stations and included hydrographic parameters, dissolved nutrient concentrations, and phytoplankton and zooplankton species composition. Hydrography varied seasonally, along a spatial gradient from the mouth to the back of the bay, and between the two years around the influence of rainfall. Spatially, Mission Bay could be divided into three regions during this study based on hydrography and zooplankton species composition. Zooplankton species composition followed a predictable seasonal progression, with different groups of species being characteristic to particular times of the year. Variability in zooplankton species composition was also evident between years, as certain species were more common in one or the other year of the study. Spatial patterns were more consistent than temporal ones, and related to distance from the mouth of the bay during much of the year and distance from freshwater inlets during the relatively short rainy season. Multivariate analysis revealed that variation in zooplankton species composition was best related to measured abiotic factors (temperature, salinity, rainfall, and tidal velocity).     

Importance of advective zone in longitudinal mixing experiments

One-dimensional Fickian dispersion models such as the advection diffusion equation (ADE) are commonly used to analyse and predict concentration distributions downstream of contamination events in watercourses. Such models are only valid once the tracer had entered the equilibrium zone. This paper compares previous theoretical, experimental and numerical estimates of the distance to reach the equilibrium zone with new experimental values, obtained by examining the change of skewness in a tracer profile, downstream of a cross-sectionally well mixed source. Closer agreement was found with Fischers’ theoretical estimate than prior experimental and numerical studies.     

Tsunami hazard in the Eastern Mediterranean: strong earthquakes and tsunamis in Cyprus and the Levantine Sea

A modern tsunami catalogue has been compiled for the region of Cyprus-Levantine Sea in which 24 certain or possible local tsunamis are listed from antiquity up to the present time, while six regional tsunamis, generated in the Hellenic arc, are documented which affected the region. Another set of 13 doubtful events not included in the catalogue are discussed. Tsunami intensities k and K were re-evaluated using the classic 6-grade and the new 12-grade intensity scales, respectively. The strongest tsunamis reported in the region of interest are those of 551 AD, 749, 1068, 1201, 1222, 1546 and 1759, all occurring along the Levantine coast from Gaza northward, with the exception of the 1222 wave which occurred in the Cyprean arc. The causative earthquakes, however, occur on land and are associated with the left-lateral strike-slip Levantine rift and, as such, remain unexplained. In this paper we speculate on the mechanism of these events. A second tsunami zone follows the Cyprean arc, where the situation of subaqueous seismogenic sources favours the generation of tsunamis by co-seismic fault displacements. Submarine or coastal earth slumping, however, may be an additional tsunamigenic component. Based on historical data, the average tsunami recurrence in the Cyprus-Levantine Sea region is roughly estimated to be around 30 years, 120 years and 375 years for moderate (k/K ≥ 2/3), strong (k/K ≥ 3/5) and very strong (k/K ≥ 5/8) events, respectively. The rate of tsunami occurrence equals 0.033, 8.3 × 10⁻³ and 2.7 × 10⁻³ events/year for intensity k/K ≥ 2/3, 3/5 and 5/8, respectively. For a Poissonian (random) process the probabilities of observing at least one moderate, strong or very strong tsunami are 0.28, 0.01 and 3 × 10⁻³ within 1 year, 0.81, 0.34 and 0.13 within 50 years and 0.96, 0.56 and 0.24 within 100 years, respectively. The tsunami potential in the Cyprus-Levantine Sea area is low relative to other Mediterranean tsunamigenic regions. However, the destructiveness of some historical events indicates the need to evaluate tsunami hazard by all available means. In addition, remote tsunamigenic sources, such as those of 1303 and 1481 in the eastern Hellenic arc, are able to threaten the coasts of the Cyprus-Levantine region and, therefore, such regional tsunamis should be taken into account in the evaluation of the tsunami risk of the region.     

Interpretation of a two-point flux stencil for skew parallelogram grids

Control-volume formulations for elliptic equations often use two-point flux stencils, even for skew grids. Any two-point flux stencil may be interpreted as a multipoint flux stencil. This yields a definition of the permeability (or conductivity) tensor. Formulas for calculating the permeability tensor, based on the user-specified quantities in the two-point flux stencil, are given. Numerical test examples demonstrate the validity of the derivation.      

Three-dimensional sedimentary architecture of Quaternary sand and gravel resources: a case study of economic sedimentology (SW Germany)

Quaternary sands and gravels form important, yet often highly heterogeneous economic deposits. Detailed 3-D analysis of the sedimentary structure and stratigraphy of these deposits allows for an accurate estimation of exploitable material. This paper presents a case study in SW Germany reconstructing the 3-D distribution of glacial sediments based on a high-resolution, process-orientated sedimentary facies classification and lithostratigraphy integrated within the geo-modelling package gOcad. Situated along the maximal ice-extent of the Rhine glacier during the last glaciation, the study area is characterised by a morphologically prominent terminal moraine and its associated sandur, which form the stratigraphically youngest sediments of a glacial basin, partially exposed in two gravel pits. These outcrops helped to reconstruct the complex sedimentary architecture of the northern part of the glacial basin. The regional analysis is based on core data, as well as geoelectric and geomagnetic surveys. All data were integrated into km-scale, high-resolution geological 3-D models, depicting the large-scale dynamics of multiple glacier advances and retreats during the Early to Late Pleistocene. These models allow quantifying the thickness and volume distribution of exploitable sandy gravel and help to evaluate the occurrence of non-exploitable interbedded diamicton horizons. The high quality and quantity of gravels particularly north of the terminal moraine classifies the investigated area as very prospective for raw materials exploitation in the future.     

The wavelet method as an alternative for reducing ionospheric effects from single-frequency GPS receivers

The ionospheric effect is one of the major errors in GPS data processing over long baselines. As a dispersive medium, it is possible to compute its influence on the GPS signal with the ionosphere-free linear combination of L1 and L2 observables, requiring dual-frequency receivers. In the case of single-frequency receivers, ionospheric effects are either neglected or reduced by using a model. In this paper, an alternative for single-frequency users is proposed. It involves multiresolution analysis (MRA) using a wavelet analysis of the double-difference observations to remove the short- and medium-scale ionosphere variations and disturbances, as well as some minor tropospheric effects. Experiments were carried out over three baseline lengths from 50 to 450 km, and the results provided by the proposed method were better than those from dual-frequency receivers. The horizontal root mean square was of about 0.28 m (1σ).