耦合长期预报的跨流域引水受水水库调度模型

为提高跨流域引水工程受水水库引水有效性,研究了耦合长期径流预报信息的跨流域引水受水水库调度模型。首先选取汛期径流预报信息,采用径流预报概率修正先验概率来描述径流的不确定性,建立了贝叶斯随机动态规划模型(BSDP-LTF)。然后将模型应用于碧流河水库,并与仅考虑径流相关的随机动态规划模型(SDP-I)、仅考虑长期预报信息的随机动态规划模型(SDP-LTF)进行比较。比较结果得出在供水保证率基本一致且不增加调度风险的情况下,BSDP-LTF模型相比SDP-I、SDP-LTF模型,可分别减少引水8.2%、4.1%。表明贝叶斯随机动态规划模型BSDP-LTF有效改进了径流描述,提高了跨流域引水的有效性。     

滇西马登地区晚二叠世-早三叠世地层组合及年代学:火山岩锆石U-Pb定年证据

在西南"三江"造山带中段的兰坪盆地内,由于露头状况不好,盆地基底岩石出露状况不详,导致地层划分、归属相当混乱。详细的野外地质调查揭示,盆地东缘马登地区出露的基底岩石主要由2个构造地层单元组成,上部为火山-沉积序列,下部为浅海相泥岩、灰岩及生物碎屑灰岩。上部火山-沉积序列出露厚约1200m,可分为4个喷发-沉积韵律,由英安质熔岩、流纹质熔岩与晶屑凝灰岩、火山集块岩、火山角砾岩、流纹质凝灰岩、火山碎屑岩及少量泥岩相间组成。火山岩锆石LAICP-MS U-Pb法测年数据显示,岩浆活动始于250Ma,持续至244Ma,总体处于早三叠世,构成江达-维西-云县弧火山岩带的一部分。强烈变形的海相地层与火山岩二者呈断层接触,其时代老于250Ma。结合砂岩中碎屑锆石年龄结果(大于260Ma)判定,这套沉积岩应属于晚二叠世,其与早三叠世-中三叠世火山岩一起组成兰坪盆地的基底岩石。     

Sexual reproduction and early life‐history traits of the Mediterranean soft coral Alcyonium acaule

Understanding processes that contribute to a better comprehension of the population dynamics of long‐lived species is critical for the maintenance and potential recovery of such species. Despite the abundance of soft corals in Mediterranean rocky reefs, little information exists on their life histories and reproductive patterns. In this study, we assessed the main reproductive characteristics and early life‐history traits of the long‐lived soft coral Alcyonium acaule. The sex ratio was 1:1; the smallest fertile colonies were one finger in size (2.1 ± 0.6 cm in height), and both colony and polyp fertility increased with colony size. Likewise, the number of eggs and spermary sacs per polyp increased significantly with colony size, whereas the diameter of the female and male sexual products did not. Over 6 years of observations (2007–2012), spawning occurred primarily in July, after the seawater reached 20 °C, in a single spawning episode per year. Approximately 80% of female colonies released eggs, which were retained on the surface of the mother colony by mucous strings for up to a few days. High fertilization rates were observed during spawning in 2008 and 2009 (94.9% and 87.0%, respectively). The timing of development was ~24 h for the blastulae, ~48–72 h for the planulae and 8–22 days for metamorphosis into primary polyps. Survivorship of planulae was relatively high (~50% at 45 days after release), but only 24% of larvae metamorphosed into primary polyps, and their survivorship was moderate after 2 months (65% in 2008 and 74% in 2009). Asexual reproduction was negligible, indicating that sexual reproduction is the main mechanism supporting the maintenance and recovery of populations.     

Linking foraging behavior and diet in a diving seabird

Foraging behavior and diet of breeding seabirds may be analysed simultaneously with the combined use of remote sensing devices and stable isotope analysis. Imperial shag, Phalacrocorax atriceps, breeding at Punta León colony, Argentina, were equipped with global positioning system (GPS) loggers to record foraging trips and blood samples were taken after removal of the devices in order to analyse their nitrogen and carbon stable isotope composition in whole blood and plasma. Whole blood was correlated to plasma isotopic composition for each individual (n = 35), linking diet in the short and medium term. Sexes did not differ in isotopic signatures. The maximum distance reached and the total number of dives that individuals made on two consecutive foraging trips were correlated to their plasma nitrogen isotopic signature. Individuals that went further from the colony and dived fewer times presented more positive signatures, indicative of benthic prey consumption (e.g. Raneya brasiliensis). Diet was predominantly benthic with some individuals incorporating pelagic prey (Engraulis anchoita) and even cephalopods (Octopus tehuelchus). Within breeding pairs (n = 9), different combinations of foraging and prey preferences were observed. Estimated trophic levels of these individuals were similar to those of the same species in other colonies further south along the Patagonian coast.     

Tsunamis generated by landslides at the coast of conical islands: experimental benchmark dataset for mathematical model validation

This paper presents a new experimental campaign aimed at reproducing tsunamis generated by landslides at the flank of conical islands. In order to describe in high details the wave field around the island a special acquisition system, which consists of both fixed and movable wave gauges, has been employed. Indeed, each experiment has been repeated several times by changing the configuration of the movable gauges, then obtaining a single virtual experiment with high spatial resolution measurements. Fixed run-up gauges measure the waves at fixed locations to statistically quantify the repeatability of the experiments. Selected experimental results are illustrated within the paper that is mainly aimed at defining a benchmark dataset, available on request, for the development/calibration/validation of analytical and numerical models of tsunamis generated by landslides.     

Engineering geomorphological characterisation of the Vajont Slide,Italy, and a new interpretation of the chronology and evolution of the landslide

Although the 1963 Vajont Slide in Italy has been extensively studied for over 50 years, its regional geological and geomorphological context has been neglected. In this paper, we use field observations and remote sensing data to elucidate the interaction between endogenic and exogenic processes that brought the north slope of Monte Toc to failure. We present the first detailed pre- and post-failure engineering geomorphology maps of the slide area. The maps delineate two main landslide blocks, several sub-blocks, compressional and extensional zones, and secondary failures in the deposit. The maps provide new insights into the kinematics, dynamics and evolution of the slide. Finally, we discuss the origin of Vajont Gorge and a prehistoric failure that occurred at the same location as the 1963 slide. We propose, as part of a newly developed multi-stage landscape evolution sequence, that the prehistoric failure was a deep-seated gravitational slope deformation (sackung) that initiated during deglaciation and continued to slowly move until the catastrophic failure in 1963. We argue that the gorge was created by these deep-seated slow movements.     

塔里木盆地东南缘下—中侏罗统煤层煤岩、煤质特征分析

塔里木盆地东南缘下—中侏罗统煤层沿阿尔金山前断续分布,其煤岩、煤质与典型的西北侏罗纪煤层具有明显不同。通过对和田布雅、于田普鲁、且末红柳沟等煤矿主采煤层样品进行煤岩、煤质鉴定及煤化指标等一系列综合研究分析,结果表明,主采煤层以光亮煤、半亮煤为主,其次是半暗煤、暗淡煤;煤岩组分以镜质组为主,壳质组含量少,具中-高镜惰比。因成煤沼泽的还原程度促进了无机硫分的形成,煤中全硫含量随镜质组含量的增加呈现逐渐增高的趋势,且煤层硫分与灰分整体具有明显的负相关关系。此外,煤层挥发分受不同种类硫分的影响,亦有明显差异性变化。在民丰凹陷中-高硫煤中,硫分以无机硫为主,随着硫分的升高挥发分亦有升高趋势;瓦石峡凹陷中-低硫煤受有机硫控制,对挥发分产率的影响不明显。民丰凹陷煤层的灰分指数高于瓦石峡凹陷,可见后者的成煤沼泽环境潜水面要比前者高得多。针对上述诸多因素分析,进一步揭示塔东南地区煤岩、煤质多样性变化受断陷湖盆以及局部水体较深的还原型沼泽环境控制,最终形成了中-高挥发分、中-低灰分、中-低硫分的煤质及富镜贫惰的煤岩特征。