Analysing Lava Risk for the Etnean Area: Simulation by Cellular Automata Methods

The model SCIARA, based on the Cellular Automata paradigm, is a versatile instrument whose scope is to analyse volcanic risk from lava flows.The possible fields of intervention are:[(a)] Long term forecasting of the flow direction at various eruption rates and points of emission by locating potential risk areas and permitting the creation of detailed maps of risk;[(b)] The possibility to follow the progress of an event and predict its evolution;[(c)] The verification of the possible effects of human intervention on real or simulated flows in stream deviation.A risk scenario has been developed for the Etnean territories of the towns of Nicolosi, Pedara and S. Alfio, simulating possible episodes with different vent locations along the fracture opened in the 1989 eruption and successively activated in the 1991–1993 eruption.The main characteristics of lava flows, that might be dangerous to the inhabited areas, have been analysed on the basis of the carried out Cellular Automata.     

Short Term and Short Range Seismicity Patterns in Different Seismic Areas of the World

The aim of this work is to quantitatively set up a simple hypothesis for occurrence of earthquakes conditioned by prior events, on the basis of a previously existing model and the use of recent instrumental observations. A simple procedure is presented in order to determine the conditional probability of pairs of events (foreshock-mainshock, mainshock-aftershock) with short time and space separation. The first event of a pair should not be an aftershock, i.e., it must not be related to a stronger previous event. The Italian earthquake catalog of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica (ING) (1975–1995, M 3.4), the earthquake catalog of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) (1983–1994, M 3.0) and that of the National Observatory of Athens (NOA) (1982–1994, M 3.8) were analyzed. The number of observed pairs depends on several parameters: the size of the space-time quiescence volume defining nonaftershocks, the inter event time, the minimum magnitude of the two events, and the spatial dimension of the alarm volume after the first event. The Akaike information criterion has been adopted to assess the optimum set of space-time parameters used in the definition of the pairs, assuming that the occurrence rate of subsequent events may be modeled by two Poisson processes with different rates: the higher rate refers to the space-time volume defined by the alarms and the lower one simulates earthquakes that occur in the nonalarm space-time volume. On the basis of the tests carried out on the seismic catalog of Italy, the occurrence rate of M 3.8 earthquakes followed by a M 3.8 mainshock within 10 km and 10 days (validity) is 0.459. We have observed, for all three catalogs, that the occurrence rate density for the second event of a couple (mainshock or aftershock) of magnitude M₂ subsequent to a nonaftershock of magnitude M₁ in the time range T can be modeled by the following relationship: (T, M₂) = 10^{a + b(M1 - M2)} with b varying from 0.74 (Japan) to 1.09 (Greece). The decrease of the occurrence rate in time for a mainshock after a foreshock or for large aftershocks after a mainshock, for all three databases, obeys the Omori's law with p changing from 0.94 (Italy) to 2.0 (Greece).     

Mantle source heterogeneity in the Campanian Region (South Italy) as inferred from geochemical and isotopic features of mafic volcanic rocks with shoshonitic affinity

Summary Major, trace element and Sr-Nd-isotopic data on mafic volcanic rocks with shoshonitic affinity from the islands of Procida and Ventotene (Campanian Region, South Italy) are reported. Within-suite chemical and isotopic variations are interpreted in terms of open system differentiation processes held responsible for enrichment in a number of trace elements and for radiogenic Sr observed in both Procida and Ventotene volcanic sequences. Conversely, trace element contents and Sr-Nd-isotopic compositions of the least-evolved among the investigated samples are thought to reflect source region characteristics with only negligible crustal contamination of the primary magmas.The data support an origin from distinct source regions for the primary magmas. In the case of Ventotene, the source would have been asthenospheric and/or lithospheric mantle with features similar to transitional mid-ocean ridge basalts (T-MORB), modified by enriching agents made up mainly of subducted slab-released components coming from marly sediments (about 7%) similar to cherts from Tuscan Apennines plus a limestone contribution. In the case of Procida, the source would have been asthenospheric and/or lithospheric mantle with a slightly more enriched T-MORB-like feature with respect to Ventotene, modified by slab-derived enriching agents, likely represented by a small amount of sediments (about 2.5%) of oceanic nature (mostly terrigenous/pelagic). These differences are constrained by lower Zr/Nb, Y/Nb, Sc/Nb, V/Nb, LILE/HFSE, LREE/HFSE and⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr, higher Ba/La and¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd ratios, as well as by the lack of a detectable negative Eu anomaly, in the least-evolved volcanic rocks of Procida, with respect to those of Ventotene, which show conversely a significant negative Eu anomaly. Thus, a sharp heterogeneity exists in the mantle beneath the Campanian Region. It is thought to be the consequence of two different slabs which are in contact along the Volturno River Plain tectonic line: a continental slab, seismically inactive, descending beneath the Latium Region, and an oceanic slab, seismically active, descending beneath the Calabria, up to the Campanian Region.

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Résumé De nouvelles analyses géochimiques d'éléments majeurs et en traces ainsi que des rapports isotopiques du Sr et du Nd sont été obtenues sur des roches volcaniques mafiques à affinité shoshonitiques provenant des îles de Procida et Ventotene (Région Campanienne, Italie du Sud). Les variations géochimiques et isotopiques observées au sein des séries volcaniques de ces deux îles sont interprétées en terme de processus de différenciation en système ouvert, tenu pour responsable d'un enrichissement d'un certain nombre d'éléments en traces et de leur composition en Sr radiogénique. Cependant, les teneurs en éléments traces et les compositions isotopiques en Sr et Nd des échantillons les moins évolués parmi ceux étudiés reflètent les caractéristiques de leur source, avec une contamination crustale très négligeable des magmas primitifs.Ces données démontrent que des sources distinctes sont à l'origine des magmas primitifs. Pour Ventotene, cette source doit être un manteau asthénosphérique et/ou lithosphérique dont la signature est similaire à celle de basaltes transitionnels de dorsale océanique (T MORB), légèrement enrichie en éléments dérivants d'une croûte plongeant dans une subduction comme des sédiments mameux (pour environ 7%) analogues aux cherts des Appenins de Toscane et comportant un apport en calcaire. Dans le cas de Procida, cette source doit être un manteau asthénosphérique et/ou lithosphérique montrant une signature de type T-MORB légèrement plus enrichie qu' à Ventotene, également modifiée par un apport venant d'une croûte en subduction, probablement une faible quantité (environ 2.5%) de sédiments de nature océanique (principalement terrigène/pélagique). Ces différences sont attestées par des rapports Zr/Nb, Y/Nb, Sc/Nb, V/Nb, LILE/HFSE, LREE/HSFE and⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr plus bas et des rapports Ba/La et¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd plus harts, ainsi que par l'absence d'une anomalie en Eu dans les compositions des roches volcaniques les moins évoluées de Procida par rapport à celles de Ventotene, qui elles, au contraire, montrent une anomalie en Eu significative.Ainsi, une importante hétérogénéité du manteau existe sous la Campanie. Cette hétérogénéité doit être la conséquence de la nature différente des croûtes en subduction et qui sont en contact le long de la ligne tectonique de la plaine de la rivière Volturno: an Nord-Ouest, une croûte continentale, sismiquement inactive, plonge sous le Latium alors qu'au Sud-Est, une croûte océanique, sismiquement active, plonge sous la Calabre et jusque sous la Campanie.

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With 9 Figures     

高美古与凤凰山水汽含量的统计分析

介绍了利用北京师范大学研制的ＩＲＡ－９３５型红外水汽测量仪对云南丽江高美古天文候选点及昆明凤凰山对比点上空垂直大气水汽积分含量Ｗ０的观测结果,给出了两地Ｗ０的日变化曲线及分布图,并对全年测量数据的统计结果作了分析和讨论     

Reporting negative results to stimulate experimental hydrology: discussion of “The role of experimental work in hydrological sciences – insights from a community survey”*

ABSTRACT

Experimental work in hydrology is in decline. Based on a community survey, Blume et al. showed that the hydrological community associates experimental work with greater risks. One of the main issues with experimental work is the higher chance of negative results (defined here as when the expected or wanted result was not observed despite careful experimental design, planning and execution), resulting in a longer and more difficult publishing process. Reporting on negative results would avoid putting time and resources into repeating experiments that lead to negative results, and give experimental hydrologists the scientific recognition they deserve. With this commentary, we propose four potential solutions to encourage reporting on negative results, which might contribute to a stimulation of experimental hydrology.     

Reply to Discussion of “Perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems: a flood risk change example”*

ABSTRACT

Ertsen discusses the representation of reality and uncertainty in our paper, raising three critical points. In response to the first, we agree that discussion of different interpretations of the concept of uncertainty is important when developing perceptual models – making different uncertainty interpretations explicit was a key motivation behind our method. Secondly, we do not, as Ertsen suggests, deny anyone who is not a “certified” scientist to have relevant knowledge. The elicitation of diverse views by discussing perceptual models is a basis for open discussion and decision making. Thirdly, Ertsen suggests that it is not useful to treat socio-hydrological systems as if they exist. We argue that we act as “pragmatic realists” in most practical applications by treating socio-hydrological systems as an external reality that can be known. But the uncertainty that arises from our knowledge limitations needs to be recognized, as it may impact on practical decision making and associated costs.     

Exploring the role of risk perception in influencing flood losses over time

ABSTRACT

What implications do societies’ risk perceptions have for flood losses? This study uses a stylized, socio-hydrological model to simulate the mutual feedbacks between human societies and flood events. It integrates hydrological modelling with cultural theory and proposes four ideal types of society that reflect existing dominant risk perception and management: risk neglecting, risk monitoring, risk downplaying and risk controlling societies. We explore the consequent trajectories of flood risk generated by the interactions between floods and people for these ideal types of society over time. The results suggest that flood losses are substantially reduced when awareness-raising attitudes are promoted through inclusive, participatory approaches in the community. In contrast, societies that rely on top-down hierarchies and structural measures to protect settlements on floodplains may still suffer significant losses during extreme events. This study illustrates how predictions formed through social science theories can be applied and tested in hydrological modelling.     

Geospatial technologies for Chang’e-3 and Chang’e-4 lunar rover missions

ABSTRACT

This paper presents a brief overview of the geospatial technologies developed and applied in Chang’e-3 and Chang’e-4 lunar rover missions. Photogrammetric mapping techniques were used to produce topographic products of the landing site with meter level resolution using orbital images before landing, and to produce centimeter-resolution topographic products in near real-time after landing. Visual positioning techniques were used to determine the locations of the two landers using descent images and orbital basemaps immediately after landing. During surface operations, visual-positioning-based rover localization was performed routinely at each waypoint using Navcam images. The topographic analysis and rover localization results directly supported waypoint-to-waypoint path planning, science target selection and scientific investigations. A GIS-based digital cartography system was also developed to support rover teleoperation.     

Energy flow and elemental concentrations in the Steina River ecosystem (Black Forest, Germany)

Considering food web energetics and elemental cycling together allows the testing of hypotheses about the coevolution of biological systems and their physical environment. We investigated the energy flow and the distribution of 25 elements in the Steina River.¶We constructed an annual energy flow network and estimated the emergy ("embodied energy" that includes all the energy involved in a process) contributions of resources sustaining the system. Furthermore, we measured the concentration of various macronutrients, essential elements, and heavy metals in the physical environment and trophic compartments. Finally, we examined the hypothesis of a positive relationship between the "rarity" of an element and its tendency to bioaccumulate. To do so, we used transformity, the relative energy input required to sustain a compartment's net production or the concentration differential of an element between the living community and the physical environment.¶The resulting energy flow network is one of the most complete available for streams. In the Steina, over 99% of the energy input is transported through the system without being processed. Dissolved inorganic matter and sunlight are the largest inputs, but uptake efficiency is much higher for dissolved and particulate organic matter. Transformities of trophic compartments and elements span 6 to 7 orders of magnitude.¶The tendency to bioaccumulate was as predicted for most elements, with macronutrients showing no accumulation and heavy elements accumulating in high-transformity compartments. However, Na and K were found at highest concentrations in consumers, and Pb, Ga, and Cd in algae. Improved estimates may become possible as more knowledge is available on ecosystem flows. We suggest further ways of testing hypotheses about strategies of element processing.