Landslide susceptibility mapping of the Sera River Basin using logistic regression model

Of the natural hazards in Turkey, landslides are the second most devastating in terms of socio-economic losses, with the majority of landslides occurring in the Eastern Black Sea Region. The aim of this study is to use a statistical approach to carry out a landslide susceptibility assessment in one area at great risk from landslides: the Sera River Basin located in the Eastern Black Sea Region. This paper applies a multivariate statistical approach in the form of a logistics regression model to explore the probability distribution of future landslides in the region. The model attempts to find the best fitting function to describe the relationship between the dependent variable, here the presence or absence of landslides in a region and a set of independent parameters contributing to the occurrence of landslides. The dependent variable (0 for the absence of landslides and 1 for the presence of landslides) was generated using landslide data retrieved from an existing database and expert opinion. The database has information on a few landslides in the region, but is not extensive or complete, and thus unlike those normally used for research. Slope, angle, relief, the natural drainage network (including distance to rivers and the watershed index) and lithology were used as independent parameters in this study. The effect of each parameter was assessed using the corresponding coefficient in the logistic regression function. The results showed that the natural drainage network plays a significant role in determining landslide occurrence and distribution. Landslide susceptibility was evaluated using a predicted map of probability. Zones with high and medium susceptibility to landslides make up 38.8 % of the study area and are located mostly south of the Sera River Basin and along streams.     

Evaluation of a multi-model approach to estimate leaf wetness duration: an essential input for disease alert systems

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Disease alert systems (DAS) of the AgroClimate platform are intended to facilitate grower decision-making when planning fungicide applications. These DAS...     

Numerical Study Of The Impact Of Coherent Structures On Vertical Transfers In The Atmospheric Boundary Layer

In two preceding papers, coherent structures of theatmospheric boundary layer (ABL), such as rollvortices or cells, were investigated through radar andaircraft observations collected during the TRAC-93(Turbulence Radar Aircraft Cells) experiment held inFrance in June 1993. The analysis of this experimentaldata set provided information on the spatialcharacteristics of these organisations (length scale,orientation, type ... ), their temporal and verticalevolution, and their relation with the dynamic andthermodynamic conditions of the ABL. For the thirdpaper in this series, a large eddy simulation model is used to examine the impact of thecoherent structures on the ABL vertical fluxes. Theanalysis of the simulated horizontal fields is madewith two-dimensional auto and cross-correlationsapplied on different pertinent ABL variables. Theresults emphasise a directional anisotropy of theseorganised fields throughout the ABL, much morepronounced in the heat flux fields, not only at thelength scale of organisations but also at theturbulence scales. This finding has an importantconsequence for traditional ABL flux measurementsbased on the hypothesis of isotropic and homogeneousturbulence. It can explain part of the underestimationof the surface fluxes often mentioned in theliterature. This approach makes it possible tomodify the concept of diffusion time (in chemicalmodelling) and could also lead to revised ABLparameterisations in Range Scale models.     

Improving modelling and inversion in refraction seismics with a first-order Eikonal solver

A first-order Eikonal solver is applied to modelling and inversion in refraction seismics. The method calculates the traveltime of the fastest wave at any point of a regular grid, including head waves as used in refraction. The efficiency, robustness and flexibility of the method give a very powerful modelling tool to find both traveltimes and raypaths. Comparisons with finite-difference data show the validity of the results. Any arbitrarily complex model can be studied, including the exact topography of the surface, thus avoiding static corrections. Later arrivals are also obtained by applying high-slowness masks over the high-velocity zones. Such an efficient modelling tool may be used interactively to invert for the model, but a better method is to apply the refractor-imaging principle of Hagedoorn to obtain the refractors from the picked traveltime curves. The application of this principle has already been tried successfully by previous authors, but they used a less well-adapted Eikonal solver. Some of their traveltimes were not correct in the presence of strong velocity variations, and the refractor-imaging principle was restricted to receiver lines along a plane surface. With the first-order Eikonal solver chosen, any topography of the receiving surface can be considered and there is no restriction on the velocity contrast. Based on synthetic examples, the Hagedoorn principle appears to be robust even in the case of first arrivals associated with waves diving under the refractor. The velocities below the refractor can also be easily estimated, parallel to the imaging process. In this way, the model can be built up successively layer by layer, the refractor-imaging and velocity-mapping processes being performed for each identified refractor at a time. The inverted model could then be used in tomographic inversions because the calculated traveltimes are very close to the observed traveltimes and the raypaths are available.     

Scale impacts on spatial variability in reference evapotranspiration

ABSTRACT

Evapotranspiration (ET) is one of the most important components in the hydrological cycle, and a key variable in hydrological modelling and water resources management. However, understanding the impacts of spatial variability in ET and the appropriate scale at which ET data should be incorporated into hydrological models, particularly at the regional scale, is often overlooked. This is in contrast to dealing with the spatial variability in rainfall data where existing guidance is widely available. This paper assesses the impacts of scale on the estimation of reference ET (ETo) by comparing data from individual weather stations against values derived from three national datasets, at varying resolutions. These include the UK Climate Impacts Programme 50 km climatology (UKCP₅₀), the UK Met Office 5 km climatology (UKMO₅) and the regional values published in the Agricultural Climate of England and Wales (ACEW). The national datasets were compared against the individual weather station data and the UKMO₅ was shown to provide the best estimate of ETo at a given site. The potential impacts on catchment modelling were then considered by mapping variance in ETo to show how geographical location and catchment size can have a major impact, with small lowland catchments having much higher variance than those with much larger areas or in the uplands. Some important implications for catchment hydrological modelling are highlighted.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor L. Ruiz     

Mineralogical,geochemical and microfabric evidences of gypsum crusts: a case study from Budapest

High levels of SO₂ and particulate pollution enable the rapid development of gypsum-rich weathering crusts in Budapest. Two types of white crusts, thin and thick ones, and two forms of black crusts, laminar and framboidal ones, were studied in limestone buildings of the parliament and Citadella. The percentage of crust cover and damage categories were documented on selected walls. Petrographic, XRD, XRF and sulphur isotope analyses were performed under laboratory conditions to understand the mechanism of crust formation. White crusts found both on exposed and sheltered walls display a calcite-rich layer with gypsum, while black crusts are enriched with gypsum. The sulphur isotopic composition of white and black crusts overlaps, but the crusts are slightly enriched in heavy isotopes compared to rainwater. S content, Si/Al ratios and particulates in black crusts suggest that air pollution (SO₂, dust) contributes to black crust formation. The accumulation of sulphur and Zn enrichment of white crusts were also documented indicating that under high pollution levels, even these compound can accumulate on exposed facades.     

Experimental study of the atmospheric marine boundary layer from in-situ aircraft measurements (TOSCANE-T Campaign): Variability of boundary conditions and eddy flux parameterization

The need for a thorough knowledge of boundary conditions over the vast oceanic surfaces makes remote sensing appear as the most suitable tool for future development. Remote sensing techniques require calibration data and consequently in-situ experiments to yield those data. Over the sea, aircraft seem to be the most convenient means of conducting validation experiments because they allow exploration of a large range of scales (from local measurements to measurements of pixel scale). This paper reports on some in-situ atmospheric aircraft measurements that were conducted as part of the TOSCANE-T experiment organized by the European Space Agency to calibrate the scatterometer for launch on ERS-1 in the early 1990's for global ocean wind measurement.The data analysed are the thermodynamic and turbulent variables measured by an instrumented aircraft, the Hurel Dubois, flying at a constant level of 50 m over the sea surface. Special attention was drawn to the variability of the boundary conditions within areas of 25 × 30 km. In fact, the two-dimensional fields of fluxes and thermodynamic parameters were inhomogeneous with some rather strong wind distortion.The eddy fluxes were parameterized with the aid of bulk aerodynamic formulations at a basic scale of 30 km samples, which corresponds to the aircraft flux computation legs. The bulk aerodynamic coefficients for momentum and heat were found to remain independent of windspeed (for wind velocities less than 12 m/s). Fluxes and thermodynamic parameters were also investigated at two other scales: the integration scale was either reduced to small areas of which size always remains larger than several characteristic lengths of turbulent transfer, or extended to a large area of 25 × 30km. The results of the bulk aerodynamic relationships appeared to be scale invariant, which would therefore justify the application of average values, within the range of scales under study.     

Impact of coherent eddies on airborne measurements of vertical turbulent fluxes

During the Hydrological-Atmospheric Pilot Experiment (HAPEX)-Sahel, which took place in Niger in the transitional period between the wet and dry seasons, two French aircraft probed the Sahelian boundary layer to measure sensible and latent heat fluxes. The measurements over the Niamey area often revealed organised structures of a few km scale that were associated with both thermals and dry intrusions. We study the impact of these coherent structures using a single day’s aircraft-measured fluxes and a numerical simulation of that day with a mesoscale model. The numerical simulation at high horizontal resolution (250 m) contains structures that evolve from streaks in the early morning to cells by noon. This simulation shows distribution, variance and skewness similar to the observations. In particular, the numerical simulation shows dry intrusions that can penetrate deeply into the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL), and even reach the surface in some cases, which is in accordance with the observed highly negatively skewed water vapour fluctuations. Dry intrusions and thermals organised at a few km scale give skewed flux statistics and can introduce large errors in measured fluxes. We use the numerical simulation to: (i) evaluate the contribution of the organised structures to the total flux, and (ii) estimate the impact of the organised structures on the systematic and random errors resulting from the 1D sampling of the aircraft as opposed to the 2D numerical simulation estimate. We find a significant contribution by the organised structures to the total resolved fluxes. When rolls occur, and for a leg length of about 30 times the ABL depth, the 1D sampled flux is shown to be sometimes 20% lower than the corresponding 2D flux when the 1D sampling direction is the same as the main axis of the rolls, whereas the systematic error is much lower when the direction of the leg is transverse to the rolls. In the case of cells, an underestimate of around 10% can still be observed with the 1D approach independent of direction, due to poor sampling of the energy-containing scales.