État actuel des données sur l'âge de la terre

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Assessing climate change impacts on hydrology from an ensemble of regional climate models,model scales and linking methods – a case study on the Lule River basin

This paper investigates how using different regional climate model (RCM) simulations affects climate change impacts on hydrology in northern Europe using an offline hydrological model. Climate change scenarios from an ensemble of seven RCMs, two global climate models (GCMs), two global emissions scenarios and two RCMs of varying resolution were used. A total of 15 climate change simulations were included in studies on the Lule River basin in Northern Sweden. Two different approaches to transfer climate change from the RCMs to hydrological models were tested. A rudimentary estimate of change in hydropower potential on the Lule River due to climate change was also made. The results indicate an overall increase in river flow, earlier spring peak flows and an increase in hydropower potential. The two approaches for transferring the signal of climate change to the hydrological impacts model gave similar mean results, but considerably different seasonal dynamics, a result that is highly relevant for other types of climate change impacts studies.     

Bioenergy potentials from forestry in 2050

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the global energy production potential of woody biomass from forestry for the year 2050 using a bottom-up analysis of key factors. Woody biomass from forestry was defined as all of the aboveground woody biomass of trees, including all products made from woody biomass. This includes the harvesting, processing and use of woody biomass. The projection was performed by comparing the future demand with the future supply of wood, based on existing databases, scenarios, and outlook studies. Specific attention was paid to the impact of the underlying factors that determine this potential and to the gaps and uncertainties in our current knowledge. Key variables included the demand for industrial roundwood and woodfuel, the plantation establishment rates, and the various theoretical, technical, economical, and ecological limitations related to the supply of wood from forests. Forests, as defined in this study, exclude forest plantations. Key uncertainties were the supply of wood from trees outside forests, the future rates of deforestation, the consumption of woodfuel, and the theoretical, technical, economical, or ecological wood production potentials of the forests. Based on a medium demand and medium plantation scenario, the global theoretical potential of the surplus wood supply (i.e., after the demand for woodfuel and industrial roundwood is met) in 2050 was calculated to be 6.1 Gm³ (71 EJ) and the technical potential to be 5.5 Gm³ (64 EJ). In practice, economical considerations further reduced the surplus wood supply from forests to 1.3 Gm³ year⁻¹ (15 EJ year⁻¹). When ecological criteria were also included, the demand for woodfuel and industrial roundwood exceeded the supply by 0.7 Gm³ year⁻¹ (8 EJ year⁻¹). The bioenergy potential from logging and processing residues and waste was estimated to be equivalent to 2.4 Gm³ year⁻¹ (28 EJ year⁻¹) wood, based on a medium demand scenario. These results indicate that forests can, in theory, become a major source of bioenergy, and that the use of this bioenergy can, in theory, be realized without endangering the supply of industrial roundwood and woodfuel and without further deforestation. Regional shortages in the supply of industrial roundwood and woodfuel can, however, occur in some regions, e.g., South Asia and the Middle East and North Africa.     

Modern diatom, cladocera, chironomid, and chrysophyte cyst assemblages as quantitative indicators for the reconstruction of past environmental conditions in the Alps. II. Nutrients

Surface sediments from 68 small lakes in the Alps and 9 well-dated sediment core samples that cover a gradient of total phosphorus (TP) concentrations of 6 to 520 g TP l^-1 were studied for diatom, chrysophyte cyst, cladocera, and chironomid assemblages. Inference models for mean circulation log₁₀ TP were developed for diatoms, chironomids, and benthic cladocera using weighted-averaging partial least squares. After screening for outliers, the final transfer functions have coefficients of determination (r², as assessed by cross-validation, of 0.79 (diatoms), 0.68 (chironomids), and 0.49 (benthic cladocera). Planktonic cladocera and chrysophytes show very weak relationships to TP and no TP inference models were developed for these biota. Diatoms showed the best relationship with TP, whereas the other biota all have large secondary gradients, suggesting that variables other than TP have a strong influence on their composition and abundance. Comparison with other diatom – TP inference models shows that our model has high predictive power and a low root mean squared error of prediction, as assessed by cross-validation.     

Reflectance spectrophotometry extended to u.v. for terrestrial,lunar and meteoritic samples

Extension of remote sensing of planetary bodies to the ultraviolet is now feasiable up to 2000 Å from earth-orbiting telescopes and spacecraft. The benefits of this extension is analysed on the basis of laboratory spectra taken on a large variety of terrestrial, lunar and meteoritic samples. Knowledge of the albedo for two wavelengths at 2300 and 6500 Å permits classification of a surface into one of the following types: lunar, carbonaceous chondrites, ordinary chondrites, achondrites or acidic rocks, basaltic rocks, irons. For lunar-type surfaces, a simple albedo measurement at 6500 Å can be converted into quantitative abundance determinations of silicate, aluminium oxide and iron; a large amount of telescopic lunar photometry data is available for mapping these abundances. Extension of the photometry to 2300 Å permits quantitative measurement of TiO₂ abundances. For asteroids and non-icy satellites, rock-type classification and constraints in chemical abundances of Si, Al, Fe and Ti can be derived from photometry at 2300 and 6500 Å. The IUE telescope already orbiting the earth, the Space Telescope to come, the lunar polar orbiter and other spacecraft under prospect are potentially available to provide the photometric observations at 6500 and 2300 Å required.     

Radiocarbon dates and late-Quaternary stratigraphy from Mamontova Gora,unglaciated central Yakutia,Siberia, U.S.S.R.

A fine exposure of perennially frozen ice-rich silt and associated flora and vertebrate fauna of late-Quaternary age exists at Mamontova Gora along the Aldan River in central Yakutia, Siberia, U.S.S.R. The silt deposit caps a 50-m-high terrace and consists of three units. An upper layer 1–2 m thick overlies a 10–15-m-thick brownish to black silt layer. The lower silt layer is greenish to gray and about 15 m thick. All the silt is well sorted with 60% of the particles falling between 0.005 and 0.5 mm in diameter and is generally chemically and mineralogically homogeneous. The middle unit contains may extinct vertebrate mammal remains and ice wedges. The lower unit contains little vegetation and no ice wedges. The silt is widespread and exists as a loamy blanket on terraces at various elevations on both sides of the lower Aldan River. The origin of the silt blanket of late-Quaternary age in central Yakutia has long been controversial. Various hypotheses have been suggested, including lacustrine and alluvial, as well as frost-action origins. It is sometimes referred to as loess-like loam. Péwé believes the silt at Mamontova Gora is loess, some of which has been retransported very short distances by water. The silt probably was blown from wide, braided, unvegetated flood plains of rivers draining nearby glaciers. The silt deposits are late Quaternary in age and probably associated with the Maximum glaciation (Samarov) and Sartan and Syryan glaciations of Wisconsinan age. On the basis of biostratigraphy, 10 radiocarbon dates, and their relation to the nearby glacial record, it is felt that the upper unit at Mamontova Gora is Holocene and the middle unit is Wisconsinan. The youngest date available from the middle unit at this particular location is 26,000 years. Dates greater than 56,000 years were obtained in the lower part of the middle unit. The lower unit is definitely beyond the range of radiocarbon dating and probably is older than the last interglacial. The sediment, fauna, ice wedges, stratigraphy, and age of perennially frozen slit deposits in central Alaska are remarkably similar to those of the deposits exposed in central Yakutia. Both areas consist of unglaciated rolling lowlands and river terraces surrounded by high mountains that were extensively glaciated in Pleistocene time. The glaciers extended from the high mountains to the edges of the ranges. In both regions, extensively braided, silt-charged rivers drained the mountains and flowed through the lowlands on their way to the sea. It follows that there should be a similar late-Quaternary history.     

Precipitation water storage capacity in a temperate mixed oak–beech canopy

The storage capacity of a temperate mixed oak–beech stand was investigated as a function of stand density and species composition. Measurements were performed in selected zones delimited by three neighbouring trees. Three independent approaches were compared: (i) a spraying laboratory experiment to estimate the water storage on foliage before and after dripping; (ii) a mechanistic model describing rainfall partitioning within the forest canopy and providing estimates of foliage storage capacities; and (iii) linear regression analyses to evaluate the canopy (foliage + branches) storage capacity using the relationship between throughfall and rainfall. Good agreement was generally observed between the laboratory experiment and the mechanistic model estimates, while estimations from the regression method tended to exceed those from the other approaches. Storage capacity estimates ranged from 0·22 mm to 0·80 mm for pure oak zones, from 0·24 mm to 1·12 mm for mixed zones and from 0·53 mm to 1·17 mm for pure beech zones. The increase of storage capacity with increasing proportion of beech in the canopy resulted from higher beech LAI compared with oak. Similarly, for mixed and pure beech canopies, storage capacity was higher for high density zones than for low density zones as a result of the increase in LAI with increasing local basal area; in contrast, for pure oak, the storage capacity was not related to basal area because of the lower shade‐tolerance of this species compared with beech. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.