Health, Safety and Environmental Risks of Underground Co2 Storage – Overview of Mechanisms and Current Knowledge

CO₂ capture and storage (CCS) in geological reservoirs may be part of a strategy to reduce global anthropogenic CO₂ emissions. Insight in the risks associated with underground CO₂ storage is needed to ensure that it can be applied as safe and effective greenhouse mitigation option. This paper aims to give an overview of the current (gaps in) knowledge of risks associated with underground CO₂ storage and research areas that need to be addressed to increase our understanding in those risks. Risks caused by a failure in surface installations are understood and can be minimised by risk abatement technologies and safety measures. The risks caused by underground CO₂ storage (CO₂ and CH₄ leakage, seismicity, ground movement and brine displacement) are less well understood. Main R&D objective is to determine the processes controlling leakage through/along wells, faults and fractures to assess leakage rates and to assess the effects on (marine) ecosystems. Although R&D activities currently being undertaken are working on these issues, it is expected that further demonstration projects and experimental work is needed to provide data for more thorough risk assessment.     

Climate projections over CORDEX Africa domain using the fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5)

Following the CORDEX experimental protocol, climate simulations and climate-change projections for Africa were made with the new fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5). The model was driven by two Global Climate Models (GCMs), one developed by the Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie and the other by the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, for the period 1950–2100 under the RCP4.5 emission scenario. The performance of the CRCM5 simulations for current climate is discussed first and compared also with a reanalysis-driven CRCM5 simulation. It is shown that errors in lateral boundary conditions and sea-surface temperature from the GCMs have deleterious consequences on the skill of the CRCM5 at reproducing specific regional climate features such as the West African Monsoon and the annual cycle of precipitation. For other aspects of the African climate however the regional model is able to add value compared to the simulations of the driving GCMs. Climate-change projections for periods until the end of this century are also analysed. All models project a warming throughout the twenty-first century, although the details of the climate changes differ notably between model projections, especially for precipitation changes. It is shown that the climate changes projected by CRCM5 often differ noticeably from those of the driving GCMs.     

A geological record of multiple Pleistocene tsunami inundations in an oceanic island: The case of Maio,Cape Verde

In the Central Atlantic archipelagos – the Canaries, Cape Verde, Madeira and the Azores – tsunami hazard is often regarded as low, when compared with other extreme wave events such as hurricanes and storms. The geological record of many of these islands, however, suggests that tsunami hazard may be underestimated, notwithstanding being lower than in areas adjacent to subduction zones, such as the margins of the Pacific and Indian oceans. Moreover, tsunamis in oceanic islands are generally triggered by local large-scale volcanic flank collapses, for which little is known about their frequency, making it difficult to estimate the probability of a new occurrence. Part of the problem lies in the fact that tsunami deposits are usually difficult to date, and few islands in the world exhibit evidence for repeated tsunami inundation on a protracted timescale. This study reports on the presence of abundant tsunami deposits (conglomerates and sandstones) on Maio Island (Cape Verde) and discusses their stratigraphy, sedimentological characteristics, probable age and tsunamigenic source. Observations indicate that four distinct inundation events of variable magnitude took place during the Pleistocene. One of the tsunami deposits yielded a high-confidence U/Th age of 78·8 ± 0·9 ka, which overlaps within error with the 73 ± 7 ka age proposed for Fogo volcano's flank collapse, an event known to have had a significant tsunami impact on nearby Santiago Island. This shows that the Fogo tsunami also impacted Maio, resulting in runups in excess of 60 m above coeval sea-level at ca 120 km from the source. Two older deposits, possibly linked to recurrent flank collapses of the Tope de Coroa volcano in Santo Antão Island, yielded lower-confidence ages of 479 to 390 ka and 360 to 304 ka. A younger deposit (<78 ka) remains undated. In summary, the geological record of Maio exhibits well-preserved evidence of repeated tsunami inundation, reinforcing the notion that tsunami hazard is not so low at volcanic archipelagos featuring prominent and highly-active volcanoes such as in Cape Verde.     

Seismic evidence for the preservation of several stacked Pleistocene coastal barrier/lagoon systems on the Gulf of Valencia continental shelf (western Mediterranean)

The focus of this study is the analysis of coastal sand barriers and associated coastal lagoons on the inner continental shelf of the Gulf of Valencia (western Mediterranean), based on two W–E seismic profiles recorded seaward of the Albufera de Valencia coastal lagoon. Seismic facies identified include a number of coastal sand barriers with landward lagoons draped by contemporary continental shelf deposits. The barrier systems have been grouped into two sedimentary systems tracts, the older one corresponding to a prograding/aggrading highstand systems tract involving at least four paleo-coastal sand barrier/lagoon systems, followed landward by a transgressive systems tract comprising three such systems. All the systems have been allocated a Tyrrhenian age, the formation of individual barrier systems having been associated with successive sea-level stillstands, and their present-day position being explained by the very high regional subsidence rate. In summary, this study demonstrates that the Quaternary stratigraphic record of the Gulf of Valencia inner continental shelf is composed of littoral sand facies, in particular coastal sand barrier and lagoon deposits. These findings are in agreement with corresponding observations on other continental shelves of the western Mediterranean, showing that the formation of coastal sand barriers was a characteristic feature of this region during the Quaternary.     

Development of regional future climate change scenarios in South America using the Eta CPTEC/HadCM3 climate change projections: climatology and regional analyses for the Amazon, S?o Francisco and the Paraná River basins

The objective of this study is to assess the climate projections over South America using the Eta-CPTEC regional model driven by four members of an ensemble of the Met Office Hadley Centre Global Coupled climate model HadCM3. The global model ensemble was run over the twenty-first century according to the SRES A1B emissions scenario, but with each member having a different climate sensitivity. The four members selected to drive the Eta-CPTEC model span the sensitivity range in the global model ensemble. The Eta-CPTEC model nested in these lateral boundary conditions was configured with a 40-km grid size and was run over 1961–1990 to represent baseline climate, and 2011–2100 to simulate possible future changes. Results presented here focus on austral summer and winter climate of 2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100 periods, for South America and for three major river basins in Brazil. Projections of changes in upper and low-level circulation and the mean sea level pressure (SLP) fields simulate a pattern of weakening of the tropical circulation and strengthening of the subtropical circulation, marked by intensification at the surface of the Chaco Low and the subtropical highs. Strong warming (4–6°C) of continental South America increases the temperature gradient between continental South America and the South Atlantic. This leads to stronger SLP gradients between continent and oceans, and to changes in moisture transport and rainfall. Large rainfall reductions are simulated in Amazonia and Northeast Brazil (reaching up to 40%), and rainfall increases around the northern coast of Peru and Ecuador and in southeastern South America, reaching up to 30% in northern Argentina. All changes are more intense after 2040. The Precipitation–Evaporation (P–E) difference in the A1B downscaled scenario suggest water deficits and river runoff reductions in the eastern Amazon and S?o Francisco Basin, making these regions susceptible to drier conditions and droughts in the future.     

Multi-day rainfall trends over the Iberian Peninsula

In order to analyze the effects of the duration of precipitation events, trends in extreme rainfall over the Iberian Peninsula (IP) for multi-day extreme precipitation events (1 to 7?days) were evaluated from records of 52 observatories regularly distributed over Iberia with no missing data for the common period 1958–2004. Two approaches were used: first, the nonparametric Mann–Kendall test together with the Sen method, and second, a parametric test based on the statistical theory of extreme values, involving time-dependent parameters to account for possible temporal changes in the frequency distribution. It was found that, in winter, there were significant negative trends for a great part of the Iberian Peninsula, but significant positive trends for the southeast over areas that shrank as the number of days considered for the precipitation event increased. Spring also showed negative trends for a great part of the IP but with a major area of positive trend over the northeast that remained unchanged when considering the maxima of from 1 to 7?days of rainfall. Autumn showed a bipolar spatial pattern, with the west being positive and the east negative.     

“Global warming” versus “climate change”: A replication on the association between political self-identification,question wording,and environmental beliefs

Climate change is one of the greatest threats to humanity and requires immediate action. Schuldt, Konrath, and Schwarz (2011) suggested that beliefs in environmental phenomena can be influenced by the terminology used to describe it: changing question wording from global warming to climate change resulted in a 6.3 percentage point increase in belief in environmental phenomena. This association was moderated by political self-identification, with Republicans being 16.2 percentage points more likely to believe in climate change than in global warming, with Democrats showing no difference. The potential for connotative meanings to shift over time and the sociopolitical changes since the original study, potential policy and environmental campaign implications, and an expansion of these findings to other countries, motivated an attempt to replicate this important finding. This pre-registered study repeated the original procedures in the United States of America and two other countries (United Kingdom and Australia; total N = 5,717). Although question wording no longer had a significant effect on beliefs in climate change/global warming, the association of political self-identification with beliefs in environmental phenomena replicated in all three countries, with Conservatives consistently believing less in climate change/global warming than Liberals. The potential impacts of temporal and methodological differences on the discrepancies between this study's and the original's findings are discussed.     

Temporal variability of throughfall as a function of the canopy development stage: from seasonal to intra-event scale

ABSTRACT

The interception process impacts rainfall magnitude and intensity under the canopy. In this study, the effect of plant interception on throughfall characteristics was assessed in the deciduous Caatinga vegetation, at different canopy development stages and for temporal scales ranging from seasonal to the intra-event scale. Throughfall and stemflow percentages were slightly higher at the onset of the rainy season, when leaf area density is low, with resulting lower interception losses. However, there was no statistical difference among the variables at the seasonal scale. At the intra-event scale, average and maximum throughfall intensity at different time intervals showed statistical difference between the stages of canopy development. Regardless of leaf area density and rainfall depth, vegetation is able to retain all the water up to 2 min in the beginning of each rainfall event with accumulated rainfall smaller than 0.6 mm. Furthermore, the Caatinga vegetation attenuates the rainfall intensity by 30–40%.