Reply to discussion on “Guidelines on the use of inverse velocity method as a tool for setting alarm thresholds and forecasting landslides and structure collapses” by F. Bozzano,P. Mazzanti,and S. Moretto

■■■The paper “Discussion to: Guidelines on the use of inverse velocity method as a tool for setting alarm thresholds and forecasting landslides and structure collapses by T. Carlà, E. Intrieri, F. Di Traglia, T. Nolesini, G. Gigli and N. Casagli” by Bozzano et al. brings forward new considerations on an issue of extreme concern in landslide risk management. To this day, the ability to predict catastrophic landslide failures from slope surface displacements is a problem dictated more by practical constraints rather than by theoretical uncertainties. In this sense, the development of data interpretation practices is crucial. This short reply provides a few further insights with regard to this subject, also in the context of the recently published literature.     

Climatic and tectonic controls on carbonate deposition in syn‐rift siliciclastic fluvial systems: A case of microbialites and associated facies in the Late Jurassic

This work provides new insights to assess the factors controlling carbonate deposition in the siliciclastic fluvial systems of rift basins. Sedimentological and stable‐isotope data of microbialites and associated carbonate facies, along with regional geological information, are shown to reveal the influence of climate and tectonics on the occurrence and attributes of carbonate deposits in these settings. The Vega Formation – a 150 m thick Lower Kimmeridgian siliciclastic fluvial sequence in Asturias Province (northern Spain) – constitutes a candidate for this approach. This unit includes varied facies (stromatolites; rudstones, packstones and wackestones containing oncoids, intraclasts, charophytes and shell bioclasts; marlstones and polygenic calcareous conglomerates) that formed in a low‐gradient fluvial–lacustrine system consisting of shallow, low‐sinuosity oncoid‐bearing channels and pools within marshy areas, with sporadic coarse alluvial deposition. The sedimentological attributes indicate common erosion by channel overflow and rapid lateral changes of subenvironments caused by water‐discharge variations. The carbonate fluvial–lacustrine system developed near uplifted marine Jurassic rocks. The occurrence of the system was conditioned by normal faults (active during the deposition of the unit) that favoured: (i) springs of HCO₃–Ca‐rich water from a Rhaetian–Sinemurian carbonate rock aquifer; and (ii) carbonate deposition in areas partially isolated from the adjacent siliciclastic fluvial system. The microbialite δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O values support deposition in a hydrologically open system, fed by ambient‐temperature meteoric water, with riparian vegetation. Three types of lamination in the stromatolites and oncoids reflect distinct morphological types of cyanobacterial communities. The textural pattern of lamination parallels δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O changes, suggesting short‐term cycles of precipitation and temperature. A moderately to strongly contrasted seasonal and/or pluriannual precipitation regime is inferred from the cyclic δ¹³C pattern of the lamination and from the discontinuous and asymmetrical growth of oncoids. Thus, the isotopic and sedimentological attributes of the carbonate deposits were linked to short‐term climate changes associated with semi‐arid conditions, consistent with the studied climatic zone.     

Fluvial sedimentation in a salt‐controlled mini‐basin: stratal patterns and facies assemblages,Sivas Basin,Turkey

The Sivas Basin, located on the Central Anatolian Plateau in Turkey, is an elongate Oligo‐Miocene basin that contains numerous salt‐walled mini‐basins. Through field analysis, including stratigraphic section logging, facies analysis and geological mapping, a detailed tectono‐stratigraphic study of the Emirhan mini‐basin and its 2·6 km thick sediment fill has been undertaken. Three main palaeoenvironments are recognized – playa‐lake, braided stream and lacustrine – each corresponds to a relatively long‐lived depositional episode within a system that was dominated overall by the development of a distributive fluvial system. At local scale, this affects the geometry of the succession and influences facies distributions within preserved sequences. Sequences affected by wedge geometries are characterized by localized channelized sandstone bodies in the area of maximum subsidence and these pass laterally to floodplain mudstone towards the diaper; several internal unconformities are recognized. By contrast, sequences affected by hook geometries display narrow and steep drape‐fold geometries with no evidence of lateral facies change and apparent conformity in the preserved succession. The sediment fill of the Emirhan mini‐basin records the remobilization of diapir‐derived detritus and the presence of evaporitic bodies interbedded within the mini‐basin, implying the growth of salt walls expressed at the surface as palaeo‐topographic highs. The mini‐basin also records the signature of a regional change in stratigraphic assemblage, passing from playa‐lake facies to large‐scale highly amalgamated fluvial facies that represent progradation of the fluvial system. The initiation and evolution of this mini‐basin involves a variety of local and regional controls. Local factors include: (i) salt withdrawal, which influenced the rate and style of subsidence and consequently temporal and spatial variation in the stratigraphic assemblage and the stratal response related to halokinesis; and (ii) salt inflation, which influenced the topographic expression of the diapirs and consequently the occurrence of diapir‐derived detritus intercalated within the otherwise clastic‐dominated succession.     

Fracture Flow Characterization with Low-Noise Spontaneous Potential Logging

Geophysical well logging has been applied for fracture characterization in crystalline terrains by physical properties measurements and borehole wall imaging. Some of these methods can be applied to monitor pumping tests to identify fractures contributing to groundwater flow and, with this, determine hydraulic conductivity and transmissivity along the well. We present a procedure to identify fractures contributing to groundwater flow using spontaneous potential measurements generated by electrokinetic processes when the borehole water head is lowered and then monitored while recovering. The electrokinetic model for flow through a tabular gap is used to interpret the measured data and determine the water head difference that drives the flow through the fracture. We present preliminary results at a test site in crystalline rocks on the campus of the University of São Paulo.     

Video monitoring of in-channel wood: From flux characterization and prediction to recommendations to equip stations

Wood flux (piece number per time interval) is a key parameter for understanding wood budgeting, determining the controlling factors, and managing flood risk in a river basin. Quantitative wood flux data is critically needed to improve the understanding of wood dynamics and estimate wood discharge in rivers. In this study, the streamside videography technique was applied to detect wood passage and measure instantaneous rates of wood transport. The goal was to better understand how wood flux responds to flood and wind events and then predict wood flux. In total, one exceptional wind and seven flood events were monitored on the Ain River, France, and around 24,000 wood pieces were detected visually. It is confirmed that, in general, there is a threshold of wood motion in the river equal to 60% of bankfull discharge. However, in a flood following a windy day, no obvious threshold for wood motion was observed, which confirms that wind is important for the preparation of wood for transport between floods. In two multi-peak floods, around two-thirds of the total amount of wood was delivered on the first peak, which confirms the importance of the time between floods for predicting wood fluxes. Moreover, we found an empirical relation between wood frequency and wood discharge, which is used to estimate the total wood amount produced by each of the floods. The data set is then used to develop a random forest regression model to predict wood frequency as a function of three input variables that are derived from the flow hydrograph. The model calculates the total wood volume either during day or night based on the video monitoring technique for the first time, which expands its utility for wood budgeting in a watershed. A one-to-one link is then established between the fraction of detected pieces of wood and the dimensionless parameter “passing time × frame rate ”, which provides a general guideline for the design of monitoring stations.     

Condensation water in heritage touristic caves: Isotopic and hydrochemical data and a new approach for its quantification through image analysis

Condensation water is a major factor in the conservation of heritage caves. It can cause dissolution of the rock substrate (and the pigments of rock art drawn on it) or covering thereof with mineral components, depending on the chemical saturation degree of the condensation water. In show caves, visitors act as a source of CO₂ and thus modify the microclimate, favouring negative processes that affect the conservation of the caves. In spite of their interest, studies of the chemical composition of this type of water are scarce and not very detailed. In this work we present research on the condensation water in the Nerja Cave, one of the main heritage and tourist caves in Europe. The joint analysis of isotopic, hydrochemical, mineralogical and microbiological data and the use of image analysis have allowed us to advance in the knowledge of this risk factor for the conservation of heritage caves, and to demonstrate the usefulness of image analysis to quantify the scope of the possible corrosion condensation process that the condensation water could be producing on the bedrock, speleothem and rock art. To our knowledge, this application of image analysis (relative to the condensation water in caves) is the first one of this type that has been documented.     

Regulation of peatland evaporation following wildfire; the complex control of soil tension under dynamic evaporation demand

The capability of peatland ecosystems to regulate evapotranspiration (ET) following wildfire is a key control on the resilience of their globally important carbon stocks under future climatic conditions. Evaporation dominates post-fire ET, with canopy and sub-canopy removal restricting transpiration and increasing evaporation potential. Therefore, in order to project the hydrology and associated stability of peatlands to a diverse range of post-fire weather conditions and future climates the regulation of evaporation must be accurately parameterised in peatland ecohydrological models. To achieve this, we measure the surface resistance (r_s) to evaporation over the growing season one year post-fire within four zones of a boreal peatland that burned to differing depths, relating r_s to near surface soil tensions. We show that the magnitude and temporal variability in r_s varies with burn severity. At the peatland scale, r_s and near-surface tension correlates non-linearly. However, at the point scale no relationship was evident between temporal variations in r_s and near-surface tension across all burn severities; in part due to the limited fluctuation in near-surface tensions and the precision of r_s measurements. Where automated measurements enabled averaging of errors, the relationship between near-surface tension and r_s switched between periods of strong and weak correlation within a burned peat hummock. This relationship, when strong, deviated from that obtained under steady state laboratory conditions; increases in r_s were more sensitive to fluctuations in near-surface tension under dynamic field conditions. Calculating soil vapour densities directly from near-surface tensions is shown to require calibration between peat types and provides little if any benefit beyond the derivation of empirical relationships between r_s and measured soil tension. Thus, we demonstrate important spatiotemporal fluctuations in post-fire r_s that will be key to regulating post-fire peatland hydrology, but highlight the complex challenges in effectively parameterising this important underlying control of near-surface tensions within hydrological simulations.     

“Global warming” versus “climate change”: A replication on the association between political self-identification,question wording,and environmental beliefs

Climate change is one of the greatest threats to humanity and requires immediate action. Schuldt, Konrath, and Schwarz (2011) suggested that beliefs in environmental phenomena can be influenced by the terminology used to describe it: changing question wording from global warming to climate change resulted in a 6.3 percentage point increase in belief in environmental phenomena. This association was moderated by political self-identification, with Republicans being 16.2 percentage points more likely to believe in climate change than in global warming, with Democrats showing no difference. The potential for connotative meanings to shift over time and the sociopolitical changes since the original study, potential policy and environmental campaign implications, and an expansion of these findings to other countries, motivated an attempt to replicate this important finding. This pre-registered study repeated the original procedures in the United States of America and two other countries (United Kingdom and Australia; total N = 5,717). Although question wording no longer had a significant effect on beliefs in climate change/global warming, the association of political self-identification with beliefs in environmental phenomena replicated in all three countries, with Conservatives consistently believing less in climate change/global warming than Liberals. The potential impacts of temporal and methodological differences on the discrepancies between this study's and the original's findings are discussed.     

Geochemical evidence for melting of carbonated peridotite on Santa Maria Island, Azores

The islands of the Azores archipelago emerge from an oceanic plateau built on lithosphere increasing in age with distance from the Mid-Atlantic Ridge from 10 to 45 Ma. Here, we present the first comprehensive major and trace element and Sr–Nd–Pb isotope data from Santa Maria, the easternmost island of the archipelago, along with published data from the other Azores islands situated much closer to the Mid-Atlantic Ridge axis. We can show that the distinctively more variable and more enriched trace element ratios at Santa Maria combined with a relatively small range in Sr–Nd–Pb isotope ratios are the result of low degrees of partial melting of a common Azores mantle plume source underneath thicker lithosphere. This implies that melt extraction processes and melting dynamics may be able to better preserve the trace element mantle source variability underneath thicker lithosphere. These conclusions may apply widely for oceanic melts erupted on relatively thick lithosphere. In addition, lower Ti/Sm and K/La ratios and SiO₂ contents of Santa Maria lavas imply melting of a carbonated peridotite source. Mixing of variable portions of deep small-degree carbonated peridotite melts and shallow volatile-free garnet peridotite could explain the geochemical variability underneath Santa Maria in agreement with the volatile-rich nature of the Azores mantle source. However, Santa Maria is the Azores island where the CO₂-rich nature of the mantle source is more evident, reflecting a combination of a smaller extent of partial melting and the positioning at the edge of the tilted Azores mantle plume.