Hässeldala – a key site for Last Termination climate events in northern Europe

The Last Termination (19 000–11 000 a BP) with its rapid and distinct climate shifts provides a perfect laboratory to study the nature and regional impact of climate variability. The sedimentary succession from the ancient lake at Hässeldala Port in southern Sweden with its distinct Lateglacial/early Holocene stratigraphy (>14.1–9.5 cal. ka BP) is one of the few chronologically well‐constrained, multi‐proxy sites in Europe that capture a variety of local and regional climatic and environmental signals. Here we present Hässeldala's multi‐proxy records (lithology, geochemistry, pollen, diatoms, chironomids, biomarkers, hydrogen isotopes) in a refined age model and place the observed changes in lake status, catchment vegetation, summer temperatures and hydroclimate in a wider regional context. Reconstructed mean July temperatures increased between c. 14.1 and c. 13.1 cal. ka BP and subsequently declined. This latter cooling coincided with drier hydroclimatic conditions that were probably associated with a freshening of the Nordic Seas and started a few hundred years before the onset of Greenland Stadial 1 (c. 12.9 cal. ka BP). Our proxies suggest a further shift towards colder and drier conditions as late as c. 12.7 cal. ka BP, which was followed by the establishment of a stadial climate regime (c. 12.5–11.8 cal. ka BP). The onset of warmer and wetter conditions preceded the Holocene warming over Greenland by c. 200 years. Hässeldala's proxies thus highlight the complexity of environmental and hydrological responses across abrupt climate transitions in northern Europe.     

Mars Express and Venus Express multi-point observations of geoeffective solar flare events in December 2006

In December 2006, a single active region produced a series of proton solar flares, with X-ray class up to the X9.0 level, starting on 5 December 2006 at 10:35 UT. A feature of this X9.0 flare is that associated MeV particles were observed at Venus and Mars by Venus Express (VEX) and Mars Express (MEX), which were ∼80° and ∼125° east of the flare site, respectively, in addition to the Earth, which was ∼79° west of the flare site. On December 5, 2006, the plasma instruments ASPERA-3 and ASPERA-4 on board MEX and VEX detected a large enhancement in their respective background count levels. This is a typical signature of solar energetic particle (SEP) events, i.e., intensive MeV particle fluxes. The timings of these enhancements were consistent with the estimated field-aligned travel time of particles associated with the X9.0 flare that followed the Parker spiral to reach Venus and Mars. Coronal mass ejection (CME) signatures that might be related to the proton flare were twice identified at Venus within <43 and <67 h after the flare. Although these CMEs did not necessarily originate from the X9.0 flare on December 5, 2006, they most likely originated from the same active region because these characteristics are very similar to flare-associated CMEs observed on the Earth. These observations indicate that CME and flare activities on the invisible side of the Sun may affect terrestrial space weather as a result of traveling more than 90° in both azimuthal directions in the heliosphere. We would also like to emphasize that during the SEP activity, MEX data indicate an approximately one-order of magnitude enhancement in the heavy ion outflow flux from the Martian atmosphere. This is the first observation of the increase of escaping ion flux from Martian atmosphere during an intensive SEP event. This suggests that the solar EUV flux levels significantly affect the atmospheric loss from unmagnetized planets.     

Superfluid signatures in magnetar seismology

We investigate the role of neutron star superfluidity for magnetar oscillations. Using a plane-wave analysis, we estimate the effects of a neutron superfluid in the elastic crust region. We demonstrate that the superfluid imprint is likely to be more significant than the effects of the crustal magnetic field. We also consider the region immediately beneath the crust, where superfluid neutrons are thought to coexist with a type II proton superconductor. Since the magnetic field in the latter is carried by an array of fluxtubes, the dynamics of this region differ from standard magnetohydrodynamics. We show that the presence of the neutron superfluid (again) leaves a clear imprint on the oscillations of the system. Taken together, our estimates show that the superfluid components cannot be ignored in efforts to carry out 'magnetar seismology'. This increases the level of complexity of the modelling problem, but also points to the possibility of using observations to probe the superfluid nature of supranuclear matter.     

Potential climate change impacts on the probability of wind damage in a south Swedish forest

We estimated how the possible changes in wind climate and state of the forest due to climate change may affect the probability of exceeding critical wind speeds expected to cause wind damage within a forest management unit located in Southern Sweden. The topography of the management unit was relatively gentle and the forests were dominated by Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.). We incorporated a model relating the site index (SI) to the site productivity into the forest projection model FTM. Using estimated changes in the net primary production (NPP) due to climate change and assuming a relative change in NPP equal to a relative change in the site productivity, we simulated possible future states of the forest under gradual adjustment of SI in response to climate change. We estimated changes in NPP by combining the boreal-adapted BIOMASS model with four regional climate change scenarios calculated using the RCAO model for the period 2071–2100 and two control period scenarios for the period 1961–1990. The modified WINDA model was used to calculate the probability of wind damage for individual forest stands in simulated future states of the forest. The climate change scenarios used represent non-extreme projections on a 100-year time scale in terms of global mean warming. A 15–40% increase in NPP was estimated to result from climate change until the period 2071–2100. Increasing sensitivity of the forest to wind was indicated when the management rules of today were applied. A greater proportion of the calculated change in probability of wind damage was due to changes in wind climate than to changes in the sensitivity of the forest to wind. While regional climate scenarios based on the HadAM3H general circulation model (GCM) indicated no change (SRES A2 emission scenario) or a slightly reduced (SRES B2 emission scenario) probability of wind damage, scenarios based on the ECHAM4/OPYC3 GCM indicated increased probability of wind damage. The assessment should, however, be reviewed as the simulation of forest growth under climate change as well as climate change scenarios are refined.     

The distribution of neodymium isotopes in Arctic Ocean basins

Nd concentration and isotope data have been obtained for the Canada, Amundsen, and Makarov Basins of the Arctic Ocean. A pattern of high Nd concentrations (up to 58 pM) at shallow depths is seen throughout the Arctic, and is distinct from that generally seen in other oceans where surface waters are relatively depleted. A range of isotopic variations across the Arctic and within individual depth profiles reflects the different sources of waters. The dominant source of water, and so Nd, is the Atlantic Ocean, with lesser contributions from the Pacific and Arctic Rivers. Radiogenic isotope Nd signatures (up to ε_Nd = −6.5) can be traced in Pacific water flowing into the Canada Basin. Waters from rivers draining older terrains provide very unradiogenic Nd (down to ε_Nd = −14.2) that can be traced in surface waters across much of the Eurasian Basin. A distinct feature of the Arctic is the general influence of the shelves on the Nd concentrations of waters flowing into the basins, either from the Pacific across the Chukchi Sea, or from across the extensive Siberian shelves. Water-shelf interaction results in an increase in Nd concentration without significant changes in salinity in essentially all waters in the Arctic, through processes that are not yet well understood. In estuarine regions other processes modify the Nd signal of freshwater components supplied into the Arctic Basin, and possibly also contribute to sedimentary Nd that may be subsequently involved in sediment-water interactions. Mixing relationships indicate that in estuaries, Nd is removed from major river waters to different degrees. Deep waters in the Arctic are higher in Nd than the inflowing Atlantic waters, apparently through enrichments of waters on the shelves that are involved in ventilating the deep basins. These enrichments generally have not resulted in major shifts in the isotopic compositions of the deep waters in the Makarov Basin (ε_Nd ∼ −10.5), but have created distinctive Nd isotope signatures that were found near the margin of the Canada Basin (with ε_Nd ∼ −9.0). The deep waters of the Amundsen Basin are also distinct from the Atlantic waters (with ε_Nd = −12.3), indicating that there has been limited inflow from the adjacent Makarov Basin through the Lomonosov Ridge.     

Non-Linear, Microscale Modelling of the Flow Over Askervein Hill

The flow solver “3DWind” is used to explore new aspects of the Askervein hill flow case. Previous work has investigated sensitivities to the grid, the inflow boundary profile, the roughness and the turbulence model. Several different linear and non-linear numerical models have also been validated by means of the Askervein hill case. This analysis focuses on the flow sensitivity to the grid spacing, the incident wind direction and the vertical resolution of topographic data. The horizontal resolution is found to be fine enough to cause only minor differences compared to a grid where every second node is removed. The vertical resolution dependence is mainly attributed to the wall functions. Simulations are performed for wind directions 200°, 205°, 210° and 215° at the reference station. The smallest directional biases compared to experimental values along a line through the hilltop are found for the directions 200° and 205°. There are larger wind direction changes along this line through the hilltop in the 200° case than in the 215° case. Still the simulation results give less veering than found in the experimental results, and this is maybe caused by a slightly stable atmosphere. The sensitivity to the vertical resolution of the topographical data is found to be particularly high close to the ground at the top of the hill; this is where the speed-up is most important. Differences decrease with the height from the ground. At higher levels the speed-ups are smaller and caused by terrain formations with larger scales.     

Initial responses of carbonate-rich shelf sediments to rising atmospheric pCO2 and “ocean acidification”: Role of high Mg-calcites

Carbonate-rich sediments at shoal to shelf depths (<200 m) represent a major CaCO₃ reservoir that can rapidly react to the decreasing saturation state of seawater with respect to carbonate minerals, produced by the increasing partial pressure of atmospheric carbon dioxide (pCO₂) and “acidification” of ocean waters. Aragonite is usually the most abundant carbonate mineral in these sediments. However, the second most abundant (typically ∼24 wt%) carbonate mineral is high Mg-calcite (Mg-calcite) whose solubility can exceed that of aragonite making it the “first responder” to the decreasing saturation state of seawater. For the naturally occurring biogenic Mg-calcites, dissolution experiments have been used to predict their “stoichiometric solubilities” as a function of mol% MgCO₃. The only valid relationship that one can provisionally use for the metastable stabilities for Mg-calcite based on composition is that for the synthetically produced phases where metastable equilibrium has been achieved from both under- and over-saturation. Biogenic Mg-calcites exhibit a large offset in solubility from that of abiotic Mg-calcite and can also exhibit a wide range of solubilities for biogenic Mg-calcites of similar Mg content. This indicates that factors other than the Mg content can influence the solubility of these mineral phases. Thus, it is necessary to turn to observations of natural sediments where changes in the saturation state of surrounding waters occur in order to determine their likely responses to the changing saturation state in upper oceanic waters brought on by increasing pCO₂. In the present study, we investigate the responses of Mg-calcites to rising pCO₂ and “ocean acidification” by means of a simple numerical model based on the experimental range of biogenic Mg-calcite solubilities as a function of Mg content in order to bracket the behavior of the most abundant Mg-calcite phases in the natural environment. In addition, observational data from Bermuda and the Great Bahama Bank are also presented in order to project future responses of these minerals. The numerical simulations suggest that Mg-calcite minerals will respond to rising pCO₂ by sequential dissolution according to mineral stability, progressively leading to removal of the more soluble phases until the least soluble phases remain. These results are confirmed by laboratory experiments and observations from Bermuda. As a consequence of continuous increases in atmospheric CO₂ from burning of fossil fuels, the average composition of contemporary carbonate sediments could change, i.e., the average Mg content in the sediments may slowly decrease. Furthermore, evidence from the Great Bahama Bank indicates that the amount of abiotic carbonate production is likely to decline as pCO₂ continues to rise.     

Polynomial interpolation of GPS satellite coordinates

This article describes an algorithm for polynomial interpolation of GPS satellite coordinates and its implementation in MATLAB. The algorithm is intended for real-time processing software and computes the position and velocity of GPS satellites from both broadcast and precise ephemerides. Tests with different orders of polynomials, and with different time spans used for polynomial fitting, show suitable settings with respect to the required interpolation precision.