Cyclone track forecasting based on satellite images using artificial neural networks

Many places around the world are exposed to tropical cyclones and associated storm surges. In spite of massive efforts, a great number of people die each year as a result of cyclone events. To mitigate this damage, improved forecasting techniques must be developed. The technique presented here uses artificial neural networks to interpret NOAA-AVHRR satellite images. A multi-layer neural network, resembling the human visual system, was trained to forecast the movement of cyclones based on satellite images. The trained network produced correct directional forecast for 98% of test images, thus showing a good generalization capability. The results indicate that multi-layer neural networks could be further developed into an effective tool for cyclone track forecasting using various types of remote sensing data. Future work includes extension of the present network to handle a wide range of cyclones and to take into account supplementary information, such as wind speeds, water temperature, humidity, and air pressure.     

Can PAHs influence Cu accumulation by salt marsh plants?

The presence of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) may change the mechanisms of metal uptake, thus influencing kinetics and extent of metal phytoextraction. Studies on the subject are scarce, particularly for salt marsh plants. The aim of this work was to investigate the effect of PAHs on the uptake of Cu by Halimione portulacoides, a plant commonly found in salt marshes. Experiments were carried out in the laboratory, either in hydroponics (sediment elutriate) or in sediment soaked in elutriate, which were prepared with sediment and water from a salt marsh of the Cavado river estuary (NW Portugal). Groups of H. portulacoides (grown in a greenhouse) were exposed to those media during six days. Cu(2+) (as Cu(NO(3))(2)), 10(2) and 10(4)mugl(-1), was added to the media as well as 1.6mugl(-1) of the sixteen EPA priority PAHs (0.1mugl(-1) of each PAHs). Cu was assayed in solutions, sediments and different plant tissues before and after experiments. After exposure, photosynthetic efficiency and levels of chlorophylls were also measured, indicating that plant stress indicators were identical in all plants independently of the media to which the plants were exposed. PAHs influenced both the soluble Cu fraction and Cu uptake by plants. The amounts of metal accumulated in both roots and stems were significantly higher when the 10(4)mugl(-1) of Cu enriched elutriate was amended with PAHs. Thus, results suggest that PAHs may modify Cu solubility, the Cu sorption by plants and/or the passive penetration of Cu into the root cells. Therefore, the combined effects of different types of pollutants should be taken in consideration when studying the remediation potential of plants, namely in terms of phytoextraction.     

Experimental biological effects assessment associated with on-shore brine discharge from the creation of gas storage caverns

Most of the studies on biological and ecological effects associated with brine discharge into the marine environment are related to the operation of desalination plants, for the production of freshwater. In this study we analysed the biological effects of a brine effluent from a completely different source, produced from the lixiviation of rock salt caves, for the creation of natural gas storage caverns. Lethal and sub-lethal endpoints following exposure to the brine were studied in a range of macrofauna species characteristic of the soft and hard bottom habitats in the vicinity of the discharge area, namely the isopod Eurydice pulchra, the annelids Sabellaria alveolata and Ophelia radiata, the sea-urchin Paracentrotus lividus and the bivalve Mytilus galloprovincialis. In a first series of experiments, brine, with salinity above 300, was diluted in distilled water to a salinity value close to that of the seawater in the discharge area (salinity 36) and, surprisingly, none of the exposed species was able to survive or develop into viable larvae. A second series of experiments exposed the species to brine diluted with seawater, simulating more realistic discharge circumstances. All the tested species at all the measured endpoints (adult survival, larval abnormal development, sperm fertilization success) showed negative biological effects in brine solutes always at a lower salinity than that of a salinity control obtained with concentrated seawater. The sub-lethal experiments with larval development of P. lividus, S. alveolata and M. galloprovincialis, and the fertilization success of P. lividus gave EC₅₀ values for the brine solute with salinity in the range of 40.9–43.5, whereas the EC₅₀ values for the concentrated seawater were in the range of salinity 44.2–49.0. It is hypothesised that differences in the ionic composition of the brine cause the inability of the species to tolerate the exposure to brine.     

Positioning fisheries in a changing world

Marine capture fisheries face major and complex challenges: habitat degradation, poor economic returns, social hardships from depleted stocks, illegal fishing, and climate change, among others. The key factors that prevent the transition to sustainable fisheries are information failures, transition costs, use and non-use conflicts and capacity constraints. Using the experiences of fisheries successes and failures it is argued only through better governance and institutional change that encompasses the public good of the oceans (biodiversity, ecosystem integrity, sustainability) and societal values (existence, aesthetic and amenity) will fisheries be made sustainable.     

Comparison of surface wind stress characteristics over the Tropical Atlantic (10°N–40°S) in fields derived from the UWM/COADS, NCEP/NCAR and QuikSCAT datasets

A comparison of monthly wind stress derived from winds of NCEP/NCAR (National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research) reanalysis and UWM/COADS (The University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee/Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set) dataset (1950–1993), and of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and satellite-based QuikSCAT dataset (2000–2006), is made over the South Atlantic (10°N–40°S). On a mean seasonal scale, the comparison shows that these three wind stress datasets have qualitatively similar patterns. Quantitatively, in general, from about the equator to 20°S in the mid-Atlantic the wind stress values are stronger in NCEP/NCAR data than those in UWM/COADS data. On the other hand, in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) area the wind stress values in NCEP/NCAR data are slightly weaker than those in UWM/COADS data. In the South Atlantic, between 20° S–40°S, the QuikSCAT dataset presents complex circulation structures which are not present in NCEP/NCAR and UWM/COADS data. The wind stress is used in a numerical ocean model to simulate ocean currents, which are compared to a drifting-buoy observed climatology. The modeled South Equatorial Current agrees better with observations between March–May and June–August. Between December–February, the South Equatorial Current from UWM/COADS and QuikSCAT experiments is stronger and more developed than that from NCEP/NCAR experiment. The Brazil Current, in turn, is better represented in the QuikSCAT experiment. Comparison of the annual migration of ITCZ at 20° and 30°W in UWM/COADS and NCEP/NCAR data sources show that the southernmost position of ITCZ at 30°W in February, March and April coincides with the rainy season in NE Brazil, while the northernmost position of ITCZ at 20°W in August coincides with the maximum rainfall of Northwest Africa.     

Nonlinear numerical assessment of the seismic response of hillside RC buildings

Major damage has been reported in hilly areas after major earthquakes,primarily because of two special conditions:the variation in the seismic ground motion due to the inclined ground surface and the irregularities caused by a stepped base level in the structure.The aim of this study is to evaluate possible differences in the responses of Chilean hillside buildings through numerical linear-elastic and nonlinear analyses.In the first step,a set of response-spectrum analyses were performed on four simplified 2D structures with mean base inclination angles of 0°,15°,30°,and 45°.The structures were designed to comply with Chilean seismic codes and standards,and the primary response parameters were compared.To assess the seismic performance of the buildings,nonlinear static(pushover)and dynamic(time-history)analyses were performed with SeismoStruct software.Pushover analyses were used to compare the nonlinear response at the maximum roof displacement and the damage patterns.Time-history analyses were performed to assess the nonlinear dynamic response of the structures subjected to seismic ground motions modified by topographic effects.To consider the topographic modification,acceleration records were obtained from numerical models of soil,which were calculated using the rock acceleration record of the Mw 8.01985 Chilean earthquake.Minor differences in the structure responses(roof displacements and maximum element forces and moments)were caused by the topographic effects in the seismic input motion,with the highly predominant ones being the differences caused by the step-back configuration at the base of the structures.High concentrations of shear forces in short walls were observed,corresponding to the walls located in the upper zone of the foundation system.The response of the structures with higher angles was observed to be more prone to fragile failures due to the accumulation of shear forces.Even though hillside buildings gain stiffness in the lower stories,resulting in lower design roof displacement,maximum roof displacements for nonlinear time-history analyses remained very close for all the models that were primarily affected by the drifts of the lower stories.Additionally,vertical parasitic accelerations were considered for half the time-history analyses performed here.The vertical component seems to considerably modify the axial load levels in the shear walls on all stories.     

DNA adducts and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) tissue levels in blue mussels (Mytilus spp.) from Nordic coastal sites

DNA adducts in gills and digestive gland, as well as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) tissue levels were analysed in blue mussels (Mytilus spp.) from Nordic coastal areas (Iceland, Norway and Sweden) with diffuse or point sources of PAHs of various origins. Both DNA adduct and PAH tissue levels were generally low, indicating low PAH exposure to the mussels in the areas studied. DNA adducts were found to be higher in gills than in digestive gland of the mussels at all sites studied. Elevated DNA adduct levels in gills were found at 6 sites out of 18 compared to reference sites in respective coastal zones. Adduct levels ranged from 0.5 to 10 nmol adducts/mol normal nucleotides, being highest in mussels from Reykjavík harbour, Iceland (intertidal mussels), and from Fiskaatangen, Norway (subtidal mussels). Total PAH tissue levels in the mussels ranged between 40 and 11,670 ng/g dry wt., and were significantly correlated with DNA adduct levels (r(2)=0.73, p<0.001). PAH ratio values indicated that the PAHs were in most cases of pyrolytic origin, but with petrogenic input near harbours and an oil refinery.     

Comparison between Eulerian diagnostics and finite-size Lyapunov exponents computed from altimetry in the Algerian basin

Transport and mixing properties of surface currents can be detected from altimetric data by both Eulerian and Lagrangian diagnostics. In contrast with Eulerian diagnostics, Lagrangian tools like the local Lyapunov exponents have the advantage of exploiting both spatial and temporal variability of the velocity field and are in principle able to unveil subgrid filaments generated by chaotic stirring. However, one may wonder whether this theoretical advantage is of practical interest in real-data, mesoscale and sub-mesoscale analysis, because of the uncertainties and resolution of altimetric products, and the non-passive nature of biogeochemical tracers. Here we compare the ability of standard Eulerian diagnostics and the finite-size Lyapunov exponent in detecting instantaneous and climatological transport and mixing properties in the south-western Mediterranean. By comparing with sea-surface temperature patterns, we find that the two approaches provide similar results for slowly evolving eddies like the first Alboran gyre. However, the Lyapunov exponent is also able to predict the (sub-)mesoscale filamentary processes occurring along the Algerian current and above the Balearic Abyssal Plain. Such filaments are also observed, with some mismatch, in sea-surface temperature patterns. Climatologies of Lyapunov exponents do not show any compact relation with other Eulerian diagnostics, unveiling a different structure even at the basin scale. We conclude that filamentation dynamics can be detected by reprocessing available altimetric data with Lagrangian tools, giving insight into (sub-)mesoscale stirring processes relevant to tracer observations and complementing traditional Eulerian diagnostics.