Modelling shallow landslide susceptibility: a new approach in logistic regression by using favourability assessment

A new method for estimating shallow landslide susceptibility by combining Geographical Information System (GIS), nonparametric kernel density estimation and logistic regression is described. Specifically, a logistic regression is applied to predict the spatial distribution by estimating the probability of occurrence of a landslide in a 16 km² area. For this purpose, a GIS is employed to gather the relevant sample information connected with the landslides. The advantages of pre-processing the explanatory variables by nonparametric density estimation (for continuous variables) and a reclassification (for categorical/discrete ones) are discussed. The pre-processing leads to new explanatory variables, namely, some functions which measure the favourability of occurrence of a landslide. The resulting model correctly classifies 98.55% of the inventaried landslides and 89.80% of the landscape surface without instabilities. New data about recent shallow landslides were collected in order to validate the model, and 92.20% of them are also correctly classified. The results support the methodology and the extrapolation of the model to the whole study area (278 km²) in order to obtain susceptibility maps.     

Geotechnical Characterization by In situ and Lab Tests to the Back-Analysis of a Supported Excavation in Metro do Porto

This paper summarizes the geotechnical characterization conducted for the design and subsequent analysis of a strutted excavation in “Metro do Porto”. This region is geologically dominated by heterogeneous weathered granite masses with deep residual soil profiles. Local saprolitic soils exhibit, by their nature, a particular behavior characterized by very sensitive and weak relic micro-structures, due to their specific genesis. This study has included the interpretation of a significant volume of in situ test results, triaxial tests over undisturbed samples and monitoring data, giving rise to specific correlations between testing and design parameters. Real time monitoring enabled a back-analysis by FEM of a well instrumented section of the strutted excavation, which was calibrated taking into account the derived correlations and the deformability behavior of this specific geotechnical ambient. This geomaterial, although revealing very high initial stiffness values (for very small strain ranges) has shown low stiffness values for “medium to high” strain levels, reflecting a singular strong non-linearity in the stress-strain behavior.     

Neoproterozoic–Cambrian synsedimentary magmatism in the Central Iberian Zone (Spain): geology,petrology and geodynamic significance

Petrographic, geochemical and field studies in low grade metamorphic areas (Ciudad Rodrigo-Hurdes-Sierra de Gata domain, CRHSG, central-western Spain) show that Neoproterozoic-Lowermost Cambrian series in the Central Iberian Zone (CIZ) record two kinds of provenance sources including: (1) detrital material derived from recycled orogens and (2) a Cadomian coeval juvenile contribution that governs their isotopic signature. Evidence of magmatism contemporaneous with Neoproterozoic-Cambrian sedimentation is provided by the presence of coherent, massive volcanic rocks (metabasalts, metaandesites, and metarhyolites), volcaniclastic shales, sandstones, conglomerates and breccias. The appearance of volcanogenic lithic fragments and crystals mixed in different proportions with siliciclastic constituents and also present within calcareous components in the sedimentary succession, reinforces this evidence. Although most of the selected volcanic and volcaniclastic samples appear to show tholeiitic affinity, some of them display calc-alkaline affinity. Different trace element ratios, such as Sm/Nd, Nb/Yb and Ta/Yb, suggest a magmatic evolution in the same tectonic setting. The geochemical results reported here support the existence of an active geodynamic setting as a direct contributor to the synsedimentary and magmatic content of the Neoproterozoic–Lowermost Cambrian successions in the CIZ. In particular, the relatively high Nd _(T) values and the high range of f ^Sm/Nd ratios are consistent with an active margin during the Neoproterozoic–Early Cambrian. The existence of tectonic activity is also confirmed by the presence of synsedimentary deformation and volcanic rocks. All of these traits favour a geodynamic model in which the Iberian Cadomian segment represented in the CIZ would have been part of an active northern margin of Gondwana, with an associated magmatic arc and related basins during Neoproterozoic–Lower Cambrian times. A proposed link between the Ossa Morena and the Central Iberian Zones might account for late Cadomian pull-apart basins developed on both sides of the magmatic arc, sharing the same scenario and involving similar magmatic activity during the Neoproterozoic–Cambrian transition.

Mechanisms of landslides in over-consolidated clays and flysch

In this report, we present the situation in Slovenia, Europe with regard to natural hazards, emphasizing land-sliding problems. Furthermore, we shortly present the University of Ljubljana and the Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering as the new member of the ICL that was selected to be the World Center of Excellence on Landslide Risk Reduction for the period of 2008–2013 with the project entitled “Mechanisms of landslides in over-consolidated clays and flysch” in the Activity scale and targeted region as “National.” Some preliminary results of this project are shortly presented at the end.     

Spatial and Seasonal Patterns of Salinity in a Large and Shallow Tropical Estuary of the Western Caribbean

Salinity profiles and meteorological data were analyzed during February, May, and September 2006 in Chetumal Bay, a large, shallow estuary of the Western Caribbean. Local meteorological conditions revealed three seasons: (1) a dry season (March–May); (2) a wet season (June–October); and (3) the nortes season, with northerly wind events (October–February). During the nortes and wet seasons, salinity ranged between 13 and 16 psu, and salinity was highest in the dry season, ranging between 18 and 22 psu over most of the area; a strong stratification and a significant contribution of salty water characterized this season. Strong horizontal gradients were observed near Rio Hondo during the three seasons. Deep and narrow peculiar bathymetric features called the pozas showed a strong stratification and a relatively high salinity. The northern part of Chetumal Bay and probably the entire system are far from being homogeneous.     

Life in the sublittoral zone of long-lived Lake Pannon: paleontological analysis of the Upper Miocene Szák Formation,Hungary

Life and depositional environments in the sublittoral zone of Lake Pannon, a large, brackish Paratethyan lake from the Late Miocene, were reconstructed from fossils and facies of the Szák Formation. This formation is exposed in several, roughly coeval (9.4–8.9 Ma) outcrops, located along strike of the paleo-shelf-break in northwestern Hungary. The silty argillaceous marl of the formation was deposited below storm wave base, at 20–30 to 80–90 m water depth. The abundance of benthic organisms indicates that the bottom water was usually well oxygenated. Interstitial dysoxia, however, may have occurred immediately below the sediment–water interface, as evidenced by occasional preservation of trace fossils such as Diplocraterion. The fauna comprised endemic mollusks, including brackish cockles of the subfamily Lymnocardiinae, dreissenid mussels (Congeria), and highly adapted, uniquely large-sized deep-water pulmonate snails (planorbids and lymnaeids). Ostracods were dominated by endemic species and, in some cases, endemic genera of candonids, leptocytherids, cypridids, and loxoconchids. Fish remnants include a sciaenid otolith and the oldest skeletal occurrence of Perca in Europe. The phytoplankton comprised exclusively endemic coccolithophorids, mostly endemic dinoflagellates (prevailingly Spiniferites), and cosmopolitan green algae. The Late Miocene fauna and flora of Lake Pannon were in many ways similar to the modern Caspian biota, and in particular cases can be regarded as its precursor.     

Variability of mangrove ecosystems along the Brazilian coast

Brazilian mangroves extend from 4°30′N to 28°30′S, varying greatly in growth form, species distribution patterns, and stand structure, in spite of a limited floristic diversity. We divided the Brazilian coastline into eight units, within which physiographic and climatic conditions are relatively uniform, and described mangrove occurrence, species distribution and structural attributes characteristic of each segment. In general, greates mangrove coverage and greatest forest stature are found in areas with a large surplus of rainfall over potential evapotranspiration and macrotidal regimes. An exception was the segment containing the mouth of the Amazon river, where freshwater systems dominate over brackish or marine associations. We believe that the variability in species associations and the dominance of each in a given environment is predominantly determined by the characteristics of the landforms that can be colonized by each species in a given region. The type, size, and frequency of occurrence of available landforms is a function of the particular mix of fluvial, tidal, and wave energies found in a region. Different species colonize these sites depending on their adaptations and edaphic preferences. Climate affects mangrove colonization and growth. We suggest that Brazilian mangroves play a minor role in modifying the geomorphic setting; the spatial arrangement of the various forest types is a response to the underlying topography and edaphic conditions, and to the constraints imposed by climatic and hydrologic factors. The spatial arrangement of species does not necessarily show successional processes, but may be the result of direct and differential colonization on appropriate substrates.     

Low velocity shock-cloud encounters I.

Shocks propagating in the interstellar medium (ISM) play an important role in the life of molecular clouds. Through a theoretical study of interaction between clouds and shocks we can understand, for example, the density distribution of observed molecular clouds and the first steps of star formation. The only way to study of interaction in detail is via a numerical hydrodynamical simulation. In this paper we present the first results of a hydrocode which is able to follow the processes after the collision between the cloud and shock front.Our main theoretical result is that the chemical processes (e.g. H₂ dissociation) can affect the dynamical processes significantly. Global parameters of the cloud are calculated for the comparision of the simulation and the observations.     

The OSIRIS‐REx target asteroid (101955) Bennu: Constraints on its physical,geological, and dynamical nature from astronomical observations

We review the results of an extensive campaign to determine the physical, geological, and dynamical properties of asteroid (101955) Bennu. This investigation provides information on the orbit, shape, mass, rotation state, radar response, photometric, spectroscopic, thermal, regolith, and environmental properties of Bennu. We combine these data with cosmochemical and dynamical models to develop a hypothetical timeline for Bennu's formation and evolution. We infer that Bennu is an ancient object that has witnessed over 4.5 Gyr of solar system history. Its chemistry and mineralogy were established within the first 10 Myr of the solar system. It likely originated as a discrete asteroid in the inner Main Belt approximately 0.7–2 Gyr ago as a fragment from the catastrophic disruption of a large (approximately 100‐km), carbonaceous asteroid. It was delivered to near‐Earth space via a combination of Yarkovsky‐induced drift and interaction with giant‐planet resonances. During its journey, YORP processes and planetary close encounters modified Bennu's spin state, potentially reshaping and resurfacing the asteroid. We also review work on Bennu's future dynamical evolution and constrain its ultimate fate. It is one of the most Potentially Hazardous Asteroids with an approximately 1‐in‐2700 chance of impacting the Earth in the late 22nd century. It will most likely end its dynamical life by falling into the Sun. The highest probability for a planetary impact is with Venus, followed by the Earth. There is a chance that Bennu will be ejected from the inner solar system after a close encounter with Jupiter. OSIRIS‐REx will return samples from the surface of this intriguing asteroid in September 2023.