A reconstruction of the palaeohydrological conditions of a flood‐plain: a multi‐proxy study from the Grabia River valley mire,central Poland

This study investigated the Grabia River valley mire in central Poland to reconstruct its palaeoenvironmental conditions from the Younger Dryas to the present. We analysed sedimentological, biological and geochemical data from the palaeo‐oxbow lake and valley mire to identify the principal hydrological trends, especially episodes of high water level. During the Lateglacial and Holocene, the Grabia River had a meandering channel, and its hydraulic parameters and the channel dimensions changed in response to climatic oscillations and vegetation development. We identified phases of high flood intensity and high groundwater level that correlate with regional and supraregional climatic events. The frequency and timing of palaeohydroclimatic oscillations show strong similarities to records from other sites in Poland and the rest of Europe. We show that various analytical methods, namely, pollen, plant macrofossils, Cladocera, Chironomidae, sedimentological, geochemical and radiocarbon data, can be effective tools for reconstructing past hydroclimatic changes in palaeo‐oxbow lakes and investigating the effects of past climate changes on river environments. The high sensitivity of the biota, especially Cladocera, to changes in water level permits the reconstruction of palaeoecological changes, especially flood episodes that occurred in the river valley. In particular, the increase in the proportion of sediment‐associated Cladocera and pelagic taxa was closely correlated with floods. Through comparisons with the palaeobiological data, geochemical data allowed the identification of humid phases within the fen associated with a rising groundwater table, direct fluvial activity (floods) and alluvial deposition. We also discuss the limitations of palaeohydrological reconstructions based on these proxies, especially on fossil aquatic invertebrates.     

Long-term deforestation in NW Spain: linking the Holocene fire history to vegetation change and human activities

The Holocene fire regime is thought to have had a key role in deforestation and shrubland expansion in Galicia (NW Spain) but the contribution of past societies to vegetation burning remains poorly understood. This may be, in part, due to the fact that detailed fire records from areas in close proximity to archaeological sites are scarce. To fill this gap, we performed charcoal analysis in five colluvial soils from an archaeological area (Campo Lameiro) and compared the results to earlier studies from this area and palaeo-ecological literature from NW Spain. This analysis allowed for the reconstruction of the vegetation and fire dynamics in the area during the last ca 11 000 yrs. In the Early Holocene, Fabaceae and Betula sp. were dominant in the charcoal record. Quercus sp. started to replace these species around 10 000 cal BP, forming a deciduous forest that prevailed during the Holocene Thermal Maximum until ～5500 cal BP. Following that, several cycles of potentially fire-induced forest regression with subsequent incomplete recovery eventually led to the formation of an open landscape dominated by shrubs (Erica sp. and Fabaceae). Major episodes of forest regression were (1) ～5500–5000 cal BP, which marks the mid-Holocene cooling after the Holocene Thermal Maximum, but also the period during which agropastoral activities in NW Spain became widespread, and (2) ～2000–1500 cal BP, which corresponds roughly to the end of the Roman Warm Period and the transition from the Roman to the Germanic period. The low degree of chronological precision, which is inherent in fire history reconstructions from colluvial soils, made it impossible to distinguish climatic from human-induced fires. Nonetheless, the abundance of synanthropic pollen indicators (e.g. Plantago lanceolata and Urtica dioica) since at least ～6000 cal BP strongly suggests that humans used fire to generate and maintain pasture.     

Crustal segments in the North Patagonian Massif,Patagonia: An integrated perspective based on Sm–Nd isotope systematics

New insights on the Paleozoic evolution of the continental crust in the North Patagonian Massif are presented based on the analysis of Sm–Nd systematics. New evidence is presented to constrain tectonic models for the origin of Patagonia and its relations with the South American crustal blocks. Geologic, isotopic and tectonic characterization of the North Patagonian Massif and comparison of the Nd parameters lead us to conclude that: (1) The North Patagonian Massif is a crustal block with bulk crustal average ages between 2.1 and 1.6 Ga T_DM (Nd) and (2) At least three metamorphic episodes could be identified in the Paleozoic rocks of the North Patagonian Massif. In the northeastern corner, Famatinian metamorphism is widely identified. However field and petrographic evidence indicate a Middle to Late Cambrian metamorphism pre-dating the emplacement of the ca. 475 Ma granitoids. In the southwestern area, are apparent 425–420 Ma (?) and 380–360 Ma metamorphic peaks. The latter episode might have resulted from the collision of the Antonia terrane; and (3) Early Paleozoic magmatism in the northeastern area is coeval with the Famatinian arc. Nd isotopic compositions reveal that Ordovician magmatism was associated with attenuated crust. On the southwestern border, the first magmatic recycling record is Devonian. Nd data shows a step by step melting of different levels of the continental crust in the Late Palaeozoic. Between 330 and 295 Ma magmatism was likely the product of a crustal source with an average 1.5 Ga T_DM (Nd). Widespread magmatism represented by the 295–260 Ma granitoids involved a lower crustal mafic source, and continued with massive shallower-acid plutono volcanic complexes which might have recycled an upper crustal segment of the Proterozoic continental basement, resulting in a more felsic crust until the Triassic. (4) Sm–Nd parameters and detrital zircon age patterns of Early Paleozoic (meta)-sedimentary rocks from the North Patagonian Massif and those from the neighboring blocks, suggest crustal continuity between Eastern Sierras Pampeanas, southern Arequipa-Antofalla and the northeastern sector of the North Patagonian Massif by the Early Paleozoic. This evidence suggests that, at least, this corner of the North Patagonian Massif is not allochthonous to Gondwana. A Late Paleozoic frontal collision with the southwestern margin of Gondwana can be reconcilied in a para-autochthonous model including a rifting event from a similar or neighbouring position to its post-collision location. Possible Proterozoic or Early Paleozoic connections of the NPM with the Kalahari craton or the western Antartic blocks should be investigated.     

Air–sea CO2 fluxes in the north-eastern shelf of the Gulf of Cádiz (southwest Iberian Peninsula)

An intra-annual investigation of the fugacity of CO₂ (fCO₂) has been conducted in surface waters of the north-eastern shelf of the Gulf of Cádiz (SW Iberian Peninsula) in four cruises made in 2006 and 2007. Intra-annual variability of fCO₂ was assessed and is discussed in terms of mixing, temperature and biology. In the study area of the shelf, thermodynamic control over fCO₂ predominates from early May to late November, and this is opposite and similar in magnitude to the net biological effect. However, biological control over fCO₂ predominates during winter. The results suggest that surface waters in the coastal area are under-saturated with respect to atmospheric CO₂ during most of the year; therefore they represent a sink for atmospheric CO₂ between November and May (? 1.0 mmol m^? 2 day^? 1), but a weak source in June (1.3 mmol m^? 2 day^? 1). In contrast, the coastal ecosystems studied (the lower estuary of Guadalquivir Estuary and Bay of Cádiz) acted as a weak sink for atmospheric CO₂ during February (? 1.3 mmol m^? 2 day^? 1) and as a source between May and November (2.6 mmol m^? 2 day^? 1). The resulting mean annual CO₂ flux in the north-eastern shelf of the Gulf of Cádiz was ? 0.07 mol m^? 2 year^? 1 (? 0.2 mmol m^? 2 day^? 1), indicating that the area acts as a net sink on an annual basis.     

Slab–mantle flow interaction: influence on subduction dynamics and duration

We investigate the influence of mantle flow relative to the lithosphere on subduction dynamics. We use 2D thermo‐mechanical models assuming incompressible non‐Newtonian fluid rheology. Different mantle flow velocities consistent with absolute plate motion models are tested, as well as both directions of flow, either sustaining or opposing slab dip. The effects of different inflow/outflow velocity profiles, slab strengths and upper–lower mantle viscosity contrasts are also evaluated. Slab dip deviations between models with opposite mantle flow directions range from 37° for relatively strong slabs (η_max = 10²⁵ Pa s) to 50° for weaker slabs (η_max = 10²⁴ Pa s), accounting for a significant amount of natural slab dip variability. For imposed mantle flow supporting the slab, the initial stage of slab steepening is followed by a stage of continuous slab dip decrease. This slab shallowing eventually leads to mantle wedge closure, subduction cessation and slab break‐off, possibly driving subduction flips.     

Calc-alkaline rear-arc magmatism in the Fuegian Andes: Implications for the mid-cretaceous tectonomagmatic evolution of southernmost South America

The magmatic arc of the Fuegian Andes is composed mostly of Upper Mesozoic to Cenozoic calc-alkaline plutons and subordinated lavas. To the rear arc, however, isolated mid-Cretaceous monzonitic plutons and small calc-alkaline dykes and sills crop out. This calc-alkaline unit (the Ushuaia Peninsula Andesites, UPA) includes hornblende-rich, porphyritic quartz meladiorites, granodiorites, andesites, dacites and lamprophyres. Radiometric dating and cross-cutting relationships indicate that UPA is younger than the monzonitic suite. The geochemistry of UPA is medium to high K, with high LILE (Ba 500–2000 ppm, Sr 800–1400 ppm), HFSE (Th 7–23 ppm, Nb 7–13 ppm, Ta 0.5–1.1 ppm) and LREE (La 16–51 ppm) contents, along with relatively low HREE (Yb 1.7–1.3 ppm) and Y (9–19 ppm). The similar mineralogy and geochemistry of all UPA rocks suggest they evolved from a common parental magma, by low pressure crystal fractionation, without significant crustal assimilation. A pure Rayleigh fractionation model indicates that 60–65% of crystal fractionation of 60% hornblende + 34% plagioclase + 4% clinopyroxene + 1% Fe-Ti oxide, apatite and sphene (a paragenesis similar of UPA mafic rocks) can explain evolution from lamprophyres to dacites. The UPA has higher LILE, HFSE and LREE, and lower HREE and Y than the calc-alkaline plutons and lavas of the volcanic front. The HREE and Y are lower than in the potassic plutons as well. High concentrations of Th, Nb, Ta, Zr, Hf, LREE and Ce/Pb, and low U/Th, Ba/Th ratios in UPA, even in the least differentiated samples, suggest contributions from subducted sediments to the mantle source. On the other hand, relatively low HREE and Y, high LREE/HREE (La/Yb 11–38) ratios and Nb-Ta contents can be interpreted as mantle metasomatism by partial melts of either subducted garnetiferous oceanic sediment or basalt as well. Additionally, high LILE content in UPA, similar to the potassic plutons, suggests also a mantle wedge previously metasomatized by potassic parental magmas in their route to crustal levels. Therefore, UPA represents a unique suite in the Fuegian arc generated in a multiple hybridized source. UPA generation is related to a transition from normal to flat subduction which additionally caused the widening and landward migration of the magmatic arc, as well as crustal deformation. Rear-arc magmatism endured ca. 22 m.y.; afterwards, calc-alkaline magmatism remained at the volcanic front.     

Observation-based blended projections from ensembles of regional climate models

We consider the problem of projecting future climate from ensembles of regional climate model (RCM) simulations using results from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). To this end, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian space-time model that quantifies the discrepancies between different members of an ensemble of RCMs corresponding to present day conditions, and observational records. Discrepancies are then propagated into the future to obtain high resolution blended projections of 21st century climate. In addition to blended projections, the proposed method provides location-dependent comparisons between the different simulations by estimating the different modes of spatial variability, and using the climate model-specific coefficients of the spatial factors for comparisons. The approach has the flexibility to provide projections at customizable scales of potential interest to stakeholders while accounting for the uncertainties associated with projections at these scales based on a comprehensive statistical framework. We demonstrate the methodology with simulations from the Weather Research & Forecasting regional model (WRF) using three different boundary conditions. We use simulations for two time periods: current climate conditions, covering 1971 to 2000, and future climate conditions under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 emissions scenario, covering 2041 to 2070. We investigate and project yearly mean summer and winter temperatures for a domain in the South West of the United States.