Robustness of pattern scaled climate change scenarios for adaptation decision support

Pattern scaling offers the promise of exploring spatial details of the climate system response to anthropogenic climate forcings without their full simulation by state-of-the-art Global Climate Models. The circumstances in which pattern scaling methods are capable of delivering on this promise are explored by quantifying its performance in an idealized setting. Given a large ensemble that is assumed to sample the full range of variability and provide quantitative decision-relevant information, the soundness of applying the pattern scaling methodology to generate decision relevant climate scenarios is explored. Pattern scaling is not expected to reproduce its target exactly, of course, and its generic limitations have been well documented since it was first proposed. In this work, using as a particular example the quantification of the risk of heat waves in Southern Europe, it is shown that the magnitude of the error in the pattern scaled estimates can be significant enough to disqualify the use of this approach in quantitative decision-support. This suggests that future application of pattern scaling in climate science should provide decision makers not just a restatement of the assumptions made, but also evidence that the methodology is adequate for purpose in practice for the case under consideration.     

Role of different salt marsh plants on metal retention in an urban estuary (Lima estuary,NW Portugal)

The aim of the present work was to understand the role different salt marsh plants on metal distribution and retention in the Lima River estuary (NW Portugal), which to our knowledge have not been ascertained in this area yet. The knowledge of these differences is an important requirement for the development of appropriate management strategies, and is poorly described for Eurosiberian estuaries, like the one selected. In addition it is important to understand the difference among introduced and native salt marsh plants. In this work, metal levels (Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn) were surveyed (by atomic absorption spectrometry) in sediments from sites vegetated with Juncus maritimus, Spartina patens, Phragmites australis and Triglochin striata (rhizo-sediments), in non-vegetated sediments and in the different tissues of the plants (roots, rhizomes and aerial shoots). In general, rhizo-sediments had higher metal concentrations than non-vegetated sediments, a feature that seems common to sediments colonized by salt marsh plants of different estuarine areas. All plants concentrated metals, at least Cd, Cu and Zn (and Pb for T. striata) in their belowground structures ([M]_{belowground tissues}/[M]_{non-vegetated sediment} > 1). However, when considered per unit of salt marsh area, the different selected plants played a different role on sediment metal distribution and retention. Triglochin striata retained a significant metal burden in it belowground structures (root plus rhizomes) acting like a possible phyto-stabilizer, whereas P. australis had an higher metal burden in aboveground tissues acting as a possible phyto-extractor. As for J. maritimus and S. patens, metal burden distribution between above and belowground structures depended on the metal, with J. maritimus retaining, for instance, much more Cd and Cu in the aboveground than in the belowground structures. Therefore, the presence of invasive and exotic plants in some areas of the salt marsh may considerably affect metal distribution and retention in the estuarine region.     

Application of Binary Permeability Fields for the Study of $${\hbox {CO}_{2}}$$ Leakage from Geological Carbon Storage in Saline Aquifers of the Michigan Basin

The feasibility of geological carbon storage (GCS) sites depends on their capacity to retain safely \({\hbox {CO}_{2}}\). While deep saline formations and depleted gas/oil reservoirs are good candidates to sequester \({\hbox {CO}_{2}}\), gas/oil reservoirs typically have a limited storage capacity compared to ideal targets (\(\sim \) 1 Mt/year) considered for \({\hbox {CO}_{2}}\) disposal (Celia et al. in Water Resour Res 51(9):6846–6892, 2015. doi: 10.1002/2015WR017609). In this respect, deep saline aquifers are considered more appropriate formations for GCS, but present the disadvantage of having limited characterization data. In particular, information about the continuity of the overlying sealing formations (caprock) is often sparse if it exists at all. In this work, a study of \({\hbox {CO}_{2}}\) leakage is conducted for a candidate GCS site located in the Michigan Basin, whose sealing properties of the caprock are practically unknown. Quantification of uncertainty on \({\hbox {CO}_{2}}\) leakage from the storage formation is achieved through a Monte Carlo simulation approach, relying on the use of a computationally efficient semi-analytical leakage model based upon the solution derived by Nordbotten et al. (Environ Sci Technol 43(3):743–749, 2009), which assumes leakage occurs across “passive” wells intersecting caprock layers. A categorical indicator Kriging simulator is developed and implemented to represent the caprock sealing properties and model the permeability uncertainty. Binary fields of caprock permeability are generated and exhibit mostly low permeability, with sparsely-occurring local high permeability areas where brine and \({\hbox {CO}_{2}}\) may leak out of the storage formation. In addition, the feasibility of extending the use of the semi-analytical model to large-area leakage pathways is studied. This work advances a methodology for preliminary uncertainty quantification of \({\hbox {CO}_{2}}\) leakage at sites of GCS with little or no information on the sealing properties of the caprock. The implemented analysis shows that, for the considered site, \({\hbox {CO}_{2}}\) leakage may not be negligible even for relatively low (\(\sim \) 1%) probabilities of finding permeable inclusions in the caprock and highlights the importance of being able to characterize caprock sealing properties over large areas.     

Effects of coastal orientation and depth on the distribution of subtidal benthic assemblages

A better understanding of biological systems can only be gained if we understand what processes are important and how they operate to determine the distribution of organisms. Coastal orientation and depth can influence environmental conditions, including the degree of water motion and availability of light, which in turn may influence the horizontal and vertical patterns of organism distribution. Here, we used a mixed‐model design to examine the effects of coastal orientation and depth on the structure of benthic assemblages by comparing the abundance and distribution of macroalgae and invertebrates in shallow and deep waters on the opposing coasts of São Miguel. Generally, coastal orientation had little influence on the distribution of most taxa. In contrast, significant differences were generally associated with depth, although patterns were spatially variable at the scale of locations. This study suggests that depth, and processes operating at the scale of location, but not at the scale of the coast, have an important influence on these assemblages, and that failure to recognise such a scale of variability may hamper our ability to better understand the processes that structure these communities.     

Multivariate techniques as alternative statistical tools applied to magnetic proxies for pollution: a case study from Argentina and Antarctica

Several statistical analyses—as alternative tools—were applied to magnetic monitoring studies. Magnetic and chemical data from two environments have been gathered from previous papers and studied separately. Univariate and multivariate analyses were first examined, revealing a link between magnetic and chemical variables. The latter analyses, in particular, canonical correlation analysis, showed very good canonical correlations: R = 0.950 (Antarctica) and R = 0.891 (Argentina). On the other hand, in order to classify the data according to the degree of contamination, principal coordinates and discriminant analyses, as well as the comparison of several multivariate means were performed. Three groups were distinguished in both case studies, which were well classified at a low margin of error and quite different from each other at a significant level: 0.01 (Antarctica) and 0.05 (Argentina). The joint use of these statistical analyses also showed, in agreement with previous studies, that the relevant variables in order to identify atmospheric pollution are: magnetic susceptibility, saturation of isothermal remanent magnetisation, anhysteric susceptibility/magnetic susceptibility, remanent coercivity, and copper, lead, zinc and chromium contents.     

Deglacial and postglacial climate history in east-central Isla Grande de Chiloé, southern Chile (43°S)

Palynologic and stratigraphic data from Laguna Tahui (42°50′S, 73°30′W) indicate cool-temperate and humid conditions there between 14,000 and 10,000 ¹⁴C yr B.P., followed by warmer and drier-than-present conditions between 10,000 and 7000 ¹⁴C yr B.P., and subsequent cooling and rise in precipitation over the last 5800 ¹⁴C yr. The thermophilous Valdivian trees Eucryphia cordifolia and Caldcluvia paniculata reached their maximum abundance during the early Holocene warm-dry phase (10,000-7000 ¹⁴C yr B.P.), followed by a rise in lake levels and reexpansion of North Patagonian conifers starting at 7000 and 5800 ¹⁴C yr B.P., respectively. Variations in the stratigraphic and geographic distribution of temperate rainforests in southern Chile suggest multimillennial trends in temperature and westerly activity, which are spatially and temporally coherent with paleoclimate records from neighboring regions. Climate variability at millennial and submillennial time scales may account for the establishment and persistence of fine-scale mosaics of Valdivian and North Patagonian rainforest species in low- to mid-elevation communities since ∼5800 ¹⁴C yr B.P.     

High-resolution Surveys for Geohazards and Shallow Gas: NW Adriatic (Italy) and Iskenderun Bay (Turkey)

The need for quantifying and understanding the distribution of shallow gas is both of academic interest and of relevance to offshore facilities. The combination of seafloor mapping, subbottom profiling, and multi-channel seismic data can provide information on regions of possible shallow gas, where the gas impacts the acoustic properties of the host material and the seafloor. In this paper, we present two case studies – one academic and one industry – that evaluate the distribution of shallow gas in two field areas in the Mediterranean. In the first case study, geophysical data from Iskenderun Bay, southeastern Turkey, indicate the presence and distribution of shallow gas. Pockmarks on the seafloor are associated with acoustic wipeout in the shallow subbottom data. Although deeper seismic data do not show bright spots or other indicators of possible gas, instantaneous frequency analysis clearly shows laterally restricted anomalies indicating gas-rich zones. The interpretation of possible shallow gas resulted in moving a proposed drilling location to a nearby area characterized by fewer (but still present) shallow gas signatures. In the second case study, cores acquired in the Po Delta, Adriatic Sea, provide quantitative ground-truthing of shallow gas – as suggested by geophysical data – and provide minimum estimates of the percentage of gas in the subsurface. Cores targeted on anomalous subbottom data yielded up to 41,000 ppm methane; cores with anomalous gas content are associated with thick recent flood deposits which may effectively isolate reactive terrigenous organic matter from biologic and physical re-working.     

Expanding networks for the urban poor: Water and telecommunications services in Lima, Peru

In many cities of the developing world, poor residents occupy land and build their dwellings before infrastructure is provided. Expanding the infrastructure networks for the poor is a long, expensive and complicated affair. Before the 1990s, the public sector was generally in charge of the basic services; but these services have been liberalized and, in many cases, privatized since then. In this new context, a relevant question is: have these reforms contributed to urban integration? Or, on the contrary, have they contributed to deepen urban fragmentation? This study presents the case of water and telecommunications services in Lima, Peru, the most contested and politically sensitive urban sectors. The objective is to test Graham and Marvin’s claims about the splintering of networked infrastructures expressed in Splintering Urbanism.The findings show that the reforms have improved the situation at aggregate level, but there is still no sustainable solution for the crucial dilemma of cities with high poverty restrictions: self-financed network expansions versus service affordability. The diverging paths of the utilities reform in Lima illustrate that privatization is not the main issue in the discussion to expand the networks for the poor. The main conclusion is that sensible policies complemented with carefully targeted subsidies and continuous regulation can successfully provide water for all. Good governance practices at the urban level help to achieve this goal. Water and telecommunications in Lima also show that are no general solutions for the universalization of the services; each city is different and some sectors are much more complex and problematic than others. This demands careful and continuous technical and political consideration of the local circumstances to reform the utilities.     

Linking pattern to process in reef sediment dynamics at Lady Musgrave Island,southern Great Barrier Reef

Linking surficial sediment patterns in reef environments to the processes that underlie their depositional dynamics enables predictions to be made of how environmental changes will influence reef‐associated sedimentary landforms, such as islands and beaches. Geomorphic linkages between sediment deposition patterns and the biophysical processes that drive them are often poorly resolved, particularly at broad landscape scales where tangible statements can be made about structural changes to landforms. The present study applies geospatial techniques to link patterns in reef sediment dynamics at Lady Musgrave Island to the underlying processes driving them. In situ calcification is characterized by developing a high resolution map of the surficial calcium carbonate producing communities inhabiting the reef platform, and associated sediments across the reef flat are analysed for grain size, kurtosis, sorting and threshold bed shear stress to explore transport pathways across the reef flat and lagoon. Wave energy is modelled across the entire reef platform as a potential driver of sediment dynamics, and morphometric linkages are empirically defined between wave energy and grain size. Findings indicate that carbonate sediments are primarily sourced from calcifying communities colonizing the outer periphery of the reef platform and that sediment grain size can be reliably linked to wave energy by virtue of a linear model.