Global warming vs. climate change, taxes vs. prices: Does word choice matter?

Does ??climate change?? seem like a less serious problem than ??global warming?? to Americans and Europeans? Does describing the costs of climate change mitigation in terms of ??higher taxes?? instead of ??higher prices?? reduce public support for such efforts? In an experiment embedded in an American national survey, respondents were randomly assigned to rate the seriousness of ??global warming,?? ??climate change,?? or ??global climate change.?? Contrary to predictions made by a leading political strategist, the full sample and political Independents perceived ??climate change?? and ??global warming?? to be equally serious. Among Republicans, ??climate change?? was perceived to be more serious than ??global warming,?? whereas the reverse was true among Democrats. A similar experiment embedded in a survey of residents of 31 European countries showed that ??global warming?? and ??climate change?? were perceived to be equally serious problems. And an experiment embedded in an American survey showed that describing the increased costs of climate change mitigation legislation via ??higher taxes?? instead of via ??higher prices?? did not reduce popular support for such legislation, also contradicting a political strategy memo. Thus, word choice may sometimes affect public perceptions of the climate change seriousness or support for mitigation policies, but a single choice of terminology may not influence all people the same way, making strategic language choices difficult to implement.     

Contributions of individual countries?? emissions to climate change and their uncertainty

We have compiled historical greenhouse gas emissions and their uncertainties on country and sector level and assessed their contribution to cumulative emissions and to global average temperature increase in the past and for a the future emission scenario. We find that uncertainty in historical contribution estimates differs between countries due to different shares of greenhouse gases and time development of emissions. Although historical emissions in the distant past are very uncertain, their influence on countries?? or sectors?? contributions to temperature increase is relatively small in most cases, because these results are dominated by recent (high) emissions. For relative contributions to cumulative emissions and temperature rise, the uncertainty introduced by unknown historical emissions is larger than the uncertainty introduced by the use of different climate models. The choice of different parameters in the calculation of relative contributions is most relevant for countries that are different from the world average in greenhouse gas mix and timing of emissions. The choice of the indicator (cumulative GWP weighted emissions or temperature increase) is very important for a few countries (altering contributions up to a factor of 2) and could be considered small for most countries (in the order of 10%). The choice of the year, from which to start accounting for emissions (e.g. 1750 or 1990), is important for many countries, up to a factor of 2.2 and on average of around 1.3. Including or excluding land-use change and forestry or non-CO₂ gases changes relative contributions dramatically for a third of the countries (by a factor of 5 to a factor of 90). Industrialised countries started to increase CO₂ emissions from energy use much earlier. Developing countries?? emissions from land-use change and forestry as well as of CH₄ and N₂O were substantial before their emissions from energy use.     

Climate volatility and poverty vulnerability in Tanzania

Climate volatility could change in the future, with important implications for agricultural productivity. For Tanzania, where food production and prices are sensitive to climate, changes in climate volatility could have severe implications for poverty. This study uses climate model projections, statistical crop models, and general equilibrium economic simulations to determine how the vulnerability of Tanzania's population to impoverishment by climate variability could change between the late 20th Century and the early 21st Century. Under current climate volatility, there is potential for a range of possible poverty outcomes, although in the most extreme of circumstances, poverty could increase by as many as 650,000 people due to an extreme interannual decline in grain yield. However, scenarios of future climate from multiple climate models indicate no consensus on future changes in temperature or rainfall volatility, so that either an increase or decrease is plausible. Scenarios with the largest increases in climate volatility are projected to render Tanzanians increasingly vulnerable to poverty through impacts on staple grains production in agriculture, with as many as 90,000 additional people entering poverty on average. Under the scenario where precipitation volatility decreases, poverty vulnerability decreases, highlighting the possibility of climate changes that oppose the ensemble mean, leading to poverty impacts of opposite sign. The results suggest that evaluating potential changes in volatility and not just the mean climate state may be important for analyzing the poverty implications of climate change.     

Integrated biomarker assessment of the effects exerted by treated produced water from an onshore natural gas processing plant in the North Sea on the mussel Mytilus edulis

The biological impact of a treated produced water (PW) was investigated under controlled laboratory conditions in the blue mussel, Mytilus edulis. Mussel health status was assessed using an integrated biomarker approach in combination with chemical analysis of both water (with SPMDs), and mussel tissues. Acyl-CoA oxidase activity, neutral lipid accumulation, catalase activity, micronuclei formation, lysosomal membrane stability in digestive cells and haemocytes, cell-type composition in digestive gland epithelium, and the integrity of the digestive gland tissue were measured after 5 week exposure to 0%, 0.01%, 0.1%, 0.5% and 1% PW. The suite of biomarkers employed were sensitive to treated PW exposure with significant sublethal responses found at 0.01-0.5% PW, even though individual chemical compounds of PW were at extremely low concentrations in both water and mussel tissues. The study highlights the benefits of an integrated biomarker approach for determining the potential effects of exposure to complex mixtures at low concentrations. Biomarkers were integrated in the Integrative Biological Response (IBR/n) index.     

Modelling the biological half-life and seasonality of ¹⁴C in Fucus vesiculosus from the east coast of Ireland: implications for the estimation of future trends

Radiocarbon levels were recorded in Fucus vesiculosus samples collected on a monthly basis over a three-year period at a site on the east coast of Ireland. The resulting data was analysed using a numerical model which estimates the transit times from the Sellafield plant to the sampling location, and the mean availability time of ¹⁴C in seaweed. With the inclusion of a model parameter allowing for seasonal variability in uptake by the Fucus, good correlation was observed between the predicted and measured concentrations. Future temporal trends of ¹⁴C Fucus concentrations along the eastern Irish coastline were modelled with the application of three possible prospective discharge scenarios, predicting ¹⁴C Fucus concentrations to reduce to ambient background levels within 2.5-years of discharges being set to zero. Such projections may prove helpful in assessing the consequences of discharge management and policy making in the context of the OSPAR convention.     

Validation of Arenicola marina in field toxicity bioassays using benthic cages: biomarkers as tools for assessing sediment quality

Sediment toxicity assessments using caged organisms present advantages over using laboratory and native community studies. The use of caged Arenicola marina in sediment toxicity assessments was evaluated. Lugworms were exposed in situ to sediments from coastal and port areas in Spain for seven days, and the activities of the biotransformation enzymes ethoxyresorufin O-deethylase, dibenzylfluorescein dealkylase and glutathione S-transferase, the activities of the antioxidant enzymes glutathione reductase and glutathione peroxidase and lipid peroxidation were then analyzed as biomarkers. Biomarker results and sediment physicochemical data were integrated. Cádiz Bay (SW Spain) sediments presented metal contamination that was not linked to a biochemical response. In LPGC Port (SW Spain), Pb contamination exhibited a moderate toxic potential, while PAHs, and presumably pharmaceuticals, provoked biochemical responses that efficiently prevented lipid peroxidation. In Santander Bay (N Spain), exposure to PAHs and, presumably, pharmaceuticals induced biomarker responses, but lipid peroxidation occurred nevertheless. These results indicated that caged A. marina were effective for the assessment of sediment quality and that the selected biomarkers were sufficiently sensitive to identify chemical exposure and toxicity.     

Influence of multiple stressors on the auto-remediation processes occurring in salt marshes

Due to increasing global population, salt marshes have been subjected to multiple stressors such as increasing nutrient loadings and historical contamination. In order to better understand how does the salt marsh plants auto-remediation capacity (phytoaccumulation of metals) is affected by cultural eutrophication, an experiment was performed under controlled conditions. Plants were exposure to equal metal concentrations (Zn, Cu, and Ni - micronutrients, and Cd - class B metal) simulating historical contamination and three different concentrations of nitrogen (nitrate) simulating steps of cultural eutrophication. According to our study, under the tested concentrations, cultural eutrophication does not seem to affect Zn, Cu and Ni phytoremediation of H. portulacoides, but the ecosystem service of Cd phytoremediation seems to be promoted. Nevertheless, Cd high toxicity and bioaccumulation should be taken into account, as well as the vulnerability of salt marsh ecosystems, whose reduction will have drastic consequences to the ecosystem health.     

Different communities,different perspectives: issues affecting residents’ response to a volcanic eruption in southern Iceland

This research investigates residents’ knowledge and perception of the Katla volcano and emergency response procedures in all rural and urban communities located in the eastern and southern Katla hazard zones. Using a questionnaire survey conducted in 2008, we demonstrate that there is an apparent difference between rural and urban communities' knowledge and perceptions, and identify some of the issues influencing residents’ perspectives and behaviour. All rural and most urban residents have an accurate knowledge of Katla, the proposed warning system and emergency response plan. Urban residents perceived the emergency response plan to be appropriate. In comparison, rural residents did not perceive the emergency response plan as appropriate. Rural residents stated that they would personally assess the situation before deciding on a course of action independent of the proposed plan. Livelihood connections and inherited knowledge affect rural residents’ ability and willingness to comply with the recommended procedures. Factors such as hazard knowledge, sense of community and attachment to place indicate that rural residents are more resilient to volcanic hazards. Based on our findings we recommend that emergency management agencies consider issues such as personal responsibility, neighbourliness and community involvement and cooperation, to develop and implement more appropriate volcanic risk mitigation strategies. In light of the recent Eyjafjallajökull eruptions, we provide a brief discussion on the 2010 emergency response. Although our findings are Iceland-specific, our recommendations may be applied internationally to other volcanic and disaster-prone regions.     

Holocene volcanic activity at Grímsvötn,Bárdarbunga and Kverkfjöll subglacial centres beneath Vatnajökull,Iceland

Assessment of potential future eruptive behaviour of volcanoes relies strongly on detailed knowledge of their activity in the past, such as eruption frequency, magnitude and repose time. The eruption history of three partly subglacial volcanic systems, Grímsvötn, Bárdarbunga and Kverkfjöll, was studied by analysing tephra from soil profiles around the Vatnajökull ice-cap, which extend back to ~7.6 ka. Well known regional Holocene marker tephra (e.g. H3, H4, H5) were utilized to correlate profiles. Stratigraphic positions and geochemical compositions were used for fine-scale correlation of basaltic tephra. Around Vatnajökull ice-cap 345 tephra layers were identified, of which 70% originated from Grímsvötn, Bárdarbunga or Kverkfjöll. The eruption frequency of each volcanic system was estimated; Grímsvötn has been the most active with an average of ~7 eruptions/100 years (range 4–14) during prehistoric time (before ~870 AD); Bárdarbunga has been the second most active with ~5 eruptions/100 years (range 1–8); and Kverkfjöll has remained essentially calm with 0–3 eruptions/100 years but showing periodic activity with repose times of >1000 years. All three volcanic systems experienced lulls in activity from 5 ka to 2 ka, referred to as the “Mid-Holocene low”. This reduced eruption frequency appears to have resulted from a decrease in magma generation and delivery from the mantle plume rather than from changes in ice-load/glacier thickness. In prehistoric time, there was a time lag of 1000–3000 years between a peak of activity at volcanoes directly above the mantle plume versus at volcanoes located in the non-rifting part of the Eastern Volcanic Zone, closer to the periphery of the island. This time-space relationship suggests that a significant future increase in volcanism can be expected there, following increased levels of volcanism above the plume.     

Source location of long period seismicity at Volcàn de Colima,México

This paper presents an analysis of seismicity associated with the volcanic activity of Volcàn de Colima (México) and recorded in the period November 2005–April 2006 during a field survey by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)–Osservatorio Vesuviano, the Observatorio Vulcanologico de Colima of Colima University and the Instituto Andaluz de Geofisica, University of Granada. Three different types of volcanic earthquakes have been identified on the basis of their spectral properties: Type A (0.3–1 Hz), Type B (1–5 Hz) and Type C (3–4 Hz). Results of polarization analysis applied to Type A events show a predominance of radial motion, indicating that the wavefield comprises compressional waves (P) and shear waves polarized in the vertical plane (SV), while the signal always begins with a negative polarity. Type A, B and C earthquakes have been located using both a flat layered model and a 3D model including topography. Hypocentre distributions indicate that the source of Type A signals is very shallow and confined to a small volume lying about 1 km below the crater. In contrast, the source of Type B and C events is significantly deeper, with most hypocentres located in a volume of about 1 km³ centred at 2.5–3 km depth. A cluster analysis based on the cross-correlation among the waveforms of different events recorded at the same station was applied to Type A earthquakes. Only two clusters, which include only a small percentage of events were found, indicating that earthquake families were uncommon during the period of our survey.