公共财政应急支持体系构建——以云南大姚地震为例

通过对2003年云南大姚地震中财政应急支持过程的回顾,分析了财政应对地震类突发事件中存在的一系列问题,并结合当前财政应急支持的现状,参照日本灾害救助的经验,提出了完善我国财政应急支持体系的对策建议.     

核爆炸与地震识别研究进展

综述了近年来核爆炸与天然地震识别研究的进展, 揭示了从频谱比、震级比到综合因素的概率方法的发展过程, 特别指出小当量核爆炸识别的重要性. 文章借助量子场论和相变理论分析讨论了地震波波长与动量的关系. 同时, 根据地壳介质的复杂性, 指出地震波传播过程中由于介质的非线性与弥散的联合作用, 导致产生孤波的可能性.     

Study on Holocene Paleoearthquakes in Xizhang Trench on the Jiaocheng Fault Zone,Shanxi Province

Xizhang trench is located 10 km northwest of Taiyuan city, Shanxi Province, in front of a NNW-trending scarp of 4.6m height on the northern segment of the Jiaocheng fault zone. The dimensions of the trench are 108m in length, 8m in width, and 10m in depth. There are 18 horizons revealed in the trench. The upper strata are sandy loam; the upper strata of the downthrown block of the fault are gravels, the lower ones are an interbed of brown loam and sandy loam. The strata on the upthrown block of the fault are sandy loam containing gravel. The trench shows 3 fault planes, and the upper offset point on the fault plane is 1.5m below the ground surface, the newest dislocated stratum is （3.74±0.06） ka BP. The trench reveals a lot of deformation traces, such as fault planes, dislocated strata, colluvial wedges and formation tilting. The relationship between strata and faults in the trench shows that 3 paleoearthquake events have occurred at the Jiaocheng fault zone since the Early Holocene, they are about （3.74±0.06）- （3.06±0.26）ka BP, （8.35±0.09）ka- （3.74±0.06）ka BP, and（ 10.66±0.85） - （8.35±0.09）ka BP. The average interval among the events is 2.6 - 3.6ka. The minimum coseismic vertical displacements of the 3 events are 3.0m, 2.5m and 3.2m, respectively. The significance of Xizhang trench is that the Jiaocheng fault used to be active thousands of years ago, though there is no M ≥ 7.0 earthquake recorded in historical documents. Evidence of new Jiaocheng fault zone activity during the Holocene is important for the earthquake safety assessment of Taiynan city in the future.     

用地电阻率探测和监测滑坡体实验

实验采用高密度电阻率方法探测滑坡体的电性结构, 用电阻率变化各向异性方法监测滑坡体的主破裂扩展方向和速率. 实验结果为: ① 电性结构探测实验, 验证了部分原勘测的滑坡体的蠕变体边界和地下水层的深度和厚度, 以及上层介质的性质. 证明滑动带富含地下水层; ② 用电阻率变化各向异性监测实验确定的测点主破裂扩展方向, 与滑坡体GPS位移推断的破裂带方向吻合, 且电阻率变化各向异性系数的变化速率与钻孔倾斜仪测量的滑坡体深部位移变化的速率相应.      

Assessment of alternative adsorption models and global sensitivity analysis to characterize hexavalent chromium loss from soil to surface runoff

We investigate our ability to assess transfer of hexavalent chromium, Cr(VI), from the soil to surface runoff by considering the effect of coupling diverse adsorption models with a two‐layer solute transfer model. Our analyses are grounded on a set of two experiments associated with soils characterized by diverse particle size distributions. Our study is motivated by the observation that Cr(VI) is receiving much attention for the assessment of environmental risks due to its high solubility, mobility, and toxicological significance. Adsorption of Cr(VI) is considered to be at equilibrium in the mixing layer under our experimental conditions. Four adsorption models, that is, the Langmuir, Freundlich, Temkin, and linear models, constitute our set of alternative (competing) mathematical formulations. Experimental results reveal that the soil samples characterized by the finest grain sizes are associated with the highest release of Cr(VI) to runoff. We compare the relative abilities of the four models to interpret experimental results through maximum likelihood model calibration and four model identification criteria (i.e., the Akaike information criteria [AIC and AIC_C] and the Bayesian and Kashyap information criteria). Our study results enable us to rank the tested models on the basis of a set of posterior weights assigned to each of them. A classical variance‐based global sensitivity analysis is then performed to assess the relative importance of the uncertain parameters associated with each of the models considered, within subregions of the parameter space. In this context, the modelling strategy resulting from coupling the Langmuir isotherm with a two‐layer solute transfer model is then evaluated as the most skilful for the overall interpretation of both sets of experiments. Our results document that (a) the depth of the mixing layer is the most influential factor for all models tested, with the exception of the Freundlich isotherm, and (b) the total sensitivity of the adsorption parameters varies in time, with a trend to increase as time progresses for all of the models. These results suggest that adsorption has a significant effect on the uncertainty associated with the release of Cr(VI) from the soil to the surface runoff component.     

超低剂量心脏CT扫描对冠状动脉狭窄分级和量化的价值

目的：在冠状动脉CT成像（CCTA）中,以100 kV扫描为参照,评估70 kV扫描对冠状动脉狭窄程度分级和量化的一致性。方法：选取70名临床怀疑或已知冠心病且适合行CCTA检查的患者,使用256排宽探测器CT,分别用70 kV和100kV管电压进行单心动周期CCTA检查。比较两组扫描的有效辐射剂量（ED）及图像信噪比（SNR）。对冠状动脉的9个节段进行狭窄程度分析。将狭窄程度分为正常（0%）、轻度（1%~49%）、中度（50%~69%）和重度（70%~100%）四个等级。记录狭窄程度一致的冠状动脉节段数目。使用Bland-Altman分析比较冠脉狭窄程度的一致性。结果：70 kV扫描的有效辐射剂量显著低于100 kV扫描的,分别为（0.26±0.08）mSv和（1.07±0.05）mSv （P<0.01）,信噪比显著低于100 kV扫描,分别为16.53±5.87和18.19±6.07（P<0.05）。在630个冠状动脉节段中,608个（96.5%）分级一致。Bland-Altman分析显示两组扫描方法评估狭窄程度差异性的95%可信区间约在15%~30%之间。结论：70kV冠状动脉CTA成像可以大幅度降低辐射剂量,对冠脉狭窄程度的分级与常规100kV扫描基本一致。但是对冠状动脉的精确量化测量与常规扫描有一定的差异性。     

复合填料热传导过程数值模拟

复合填料由废铸砂、粉煤灰、聚苯乙烯（EPS）颗粒、水泥和水按一定质量比例混合制成,具有低导热性、抗冻胀和轻质特性。根据热阻力法则和比等效导热系数相等法则,将材料视为由大量正方形单元体组成,其中心为一个球形EPS颗粒,这种单元体与总体的导热系数相等。运用AN SY S软件对复合填料单元体的传热过程进行了有限元模拟,根据瞬态法导热系数测试原理,推求不同EPS掺入比情况下的复合填料导热系数,分析EPS颗粒与导热系数的关系,发现材料导热系数随着EPS掺入比的增加而快速降低。将材料导热系数数值模拟与实测结果作比较,发现有限元模拟值与实测值接近,说明采用有限元方法可以实现对材料传热过程的模拟。     

南京地震台(高淳基地)雷击灾害成因分析

南京高淳地电观测系统自建成以来,每年雷雨季节观测系统遭受多次雷击,2010年9月10日雷击损毁仪器,中断观测返厂家维修.研究地电观测雷击灾害成因,并采取有效应对措施,最大程度的提高数据连续率.     

基于长江安徽段气枪主动源实验庐江台阵的台站对双差地震速度成像

针对气枪主动源监测中相位加权叠加数据绝对到时拾取可能存在较大误差的问题,提出基于台站之间叠加信号波形的相似性,利用台站对波形的互相关得到更准确到时差的策略。在此基础上,将台站对双差地震速度成像方法直接用于台站对到时差数据,以确定地下介质的速度异常。本文利用长江安徽段气枪实验在庐江临时地震台阵接收到的数据进行了测试,发现基于波形互相关得到的到时差数据比绝对到时数据更准确。最后,采用台站对双差地震成像的方法,得到了庐江台阵覆盖区域的地壳三维速度异常模型,继而确定了该地区较大尺度的地下结构分布。