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141.
The alkenone unsaturation index UK′37 has been applied to reconstruct past temperature changes in both marine and lacustrine systems. However, few studies have addressed whether the relative abundance of the C37:4 alkenone to the total C37 production (%C37:4) can reflect surface salinity changes in lacustrine systems. Here we present long-chain C37 alkenone distribution patterns in surface sediments from Lake Qinghai, China. Surface sediments were sampled over a large range of surface salinity changes (1.7-25 g/l) within Lake Qinghai and its surrounding lakes, while temperature differences at these sampling locations should be relatively small. We have found that %C37:4 varies from 15% to 49% as surface salinity decreases. We tentatively describe this %C37:4-salinity link with a general linear regression: %C37:4 = 53.4 (±7.8) − 1.73 (±0.45) × S (n = 28, r2 = 0.62), although step-wise %C37:4 changes in response to salinity variation may exist. UK′37 values vary between 0.10 and 0.16 at these sites and the inferred range of lake water temperature changes is ∼2-3 °C, suggesting that UK′37 largely reflects temperature signal across a large salinity range, consistent with previous findings that UK′37 can indicate temperature changes over a large diversity of environmental settings. We have also found that UK′37 values are correlated with salinity changes (r2 = 0.4), and thus cannot exclude potential temperature effect on %C37:4 and salinity effect on UK′37 in this study. However, even extreme estimates of temperature differences within the lake are still unable to explain the observed %C37:4 changes. We therefore suggest that %C37:4 could be used to infer past lake salinity changes at a regional scale. 相似文献
142.
Exurbia from the bottom-up: Confronting empirical challenges to characterizing a complex system 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Daniel G. Brown Derek T. Robinson Li An Moira Zellner William Rand Rick Riolo Bobbi Low 《Geoforum》2008,39(2):805-818
We describe empirical results from a multi-disciplinary project that support modeling complex processes of land-use and land-cover change in exurban parts of Southeastern Michigan. Based on two different conceptual models, one describing the evolution of urban form as a consequence of residential preferences and the other describing land-cover changes in an exurban township as a consequence of residential preferences, local policies, and a diversity of development types, we describe a variety of empirical data collected to support the mechanisms that we encoded in computational agent-based models. We used multiple methods, including social surveys, remote sensing, and statistical analysis of spatial data, to collect data that could be used to validate the structure of our models, calibrate their specific parameters, and evaluate their output. The data were used to investigate this system in the context of several themes from complexity science, including have (a) macro-level patterns; (b) autonomous decision making entities (i.e., agents); (c) heterogeneity among those entities; (d) social and spatial interactions that operate across multiple scales and (e) nonlinear feedback mechanisms. The results point to the importance of collecting data on agents and their interactions when producing agent-based models, the general validity of our conceptual models, and some changes that we needed to make to these models following data analysis. The calibrated models have been and are being used to evaluate landscape dynamics and the effects of various policy interventions on urban land-cover patterns. 相似文献
143.
Quantitative sinkhole hazard assessments in karst areas allow calculation of the potential sinkhole risk and the performance
of cost-benefit analyses. These estimations are of practical interest for planning, engineering, and insurance purposes. The
sinkhole hazard assessments should include two components: the probability of occurrence of sinkholes (sinkholes/km2 year) and the severity of the sinkholes, which mainly refers to the subsidence mechanisms (progressive passive bending or
catastrophic collapse) and the size of the sinkholes at the time of formation; a critical engineering design parameter. This
requires the compilation of an exhaustive database on recent sinkholes, including information on the: (1) location, (2) chronology
(precise date or age range), (3) size, and (4) subsidence mechanisms and rate. This work presents a hazard assessment from
an alluvial evaporite karst area (0.81 km2) located in the periphery of the city of Zaragoza (Ebro River valley, NE Spain). Five sinkholes and four locations with features
attributable to karstic subsidence where identified in an initial investigation phase providing a preliminary probability
of occurrence of 0.14 sinkholes/km2 year (11.34% in annual probability). A trenching program conducted in a subsequent investigation phase allowed us to rule
out the four probable sinkholes, reducing the probability of occurrence to 0.079 sinkholes/km2 year (6.4% in annual probability). The information on the severity indicates that collapse sinkholes 10–15 m in diameter
may occur in the area. A detailed study of the deposits and deformational structures exposed by trenching in one of the sinkholes
allowed us to infer a modern collapse sinkhole approximately 12 m in diameter and with a vertical throw of 8 m. This collapse
structure is superimposed on a subsidence sinkhole around 80 m across that records at least 1.7 m of synsedimentary subsidence.
Trenching, in combination with dating techniques, is proposed as a useful methodology to elucidate the origin of depressions
with uncertain diagnosis and to gather practical information with predictive utility about particular sinkholes in alluvial
karst settings: precise location, subsidence mechanisms and magnitude, and timing and rate of the subsidence episodes. 相似文献
144.
Gregory P. Marchildon Suren Kulshreshtha Elaine Wheaton Dave Sauchyn 《Natural Hazards》2008,45(3):391-411
Agriculture in the southern Great Plains of Canada has been particularly vulnerable to prolonged episodes of drought. Using
climate data and a precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration index, the extent of the region’s exposure to drought
is examined. Between 1914 and 1917, the Dry Belt was particularly vulnerable to drought, whereas after 1928, a much larger
region known as the Palliser Triangle covering most of southern Alberta and Saskatchewan was much more exposed to drought.
These droughts provoked major institutional adaptation, in particular the establishment of the Special Areas Board by the
Government of Alberta, and the creation of the Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Administration by the Government of Canada. Both
organizations have proved to be relatively permanent public adaptations to the natural hazard of drought in the region. Moreover,
these earlier experiences with prolonged drought as well as institution-building may be of value in helping the residents
of the Palliser Triangle adapt to predicted climate changes in the future as well as anticipate some of the barriers to effective
institutional adaptation. 相似文献
145.
Tidal inundation mapping under enhanced land subsidence in Semarang,Central Java Indonesia 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
Tidal inundation by high tide under enhanced land subsidence is a damaging phenomenon and a major threat to the Semarang urban
area in Indonesia. It impacts on economic activities, as well as the cost of an emergency program and causes interruption
of pubic services, danger of infectious diseases and injury to human lives. This study examines a spatial analysis tool on
the GIS-raster system for the tidal inundation mapping based on the subsidence-benchmark data and modified detail digital
elevation model. Neighborhood operation and iteration model as a spatial analysis tool have been applied in order to calculate
the encroachment of the tidal inundation on the coastal area. The resulting map shows that the tidal flood spreads to the
lowland area and causes the inundation of coastal settlement, infrastructure, as well as productive agricultural land, i.e.,
the fish-pond area. The monitoring of the vulnerable area due to the tidal inundation under the scenario of extended land
subsidence plays an important role in long-term coastal zone management in Semarang. 相似文献
146.
Gravitational spreading of mountain ridges displays primary disequilibrium of flysch mountain areas of the Czech Carpathians.
The progression of various types of mass movements is a product of long-term ridge disintegration and is predisposed by the
geological structure of the area and the upper Tertiary-Quaternary morphogenesis of the mountain area. Deep-seated slope deformations
are spatially interconnected by the occurrence of some other types of slope deformations (e.g. debris flows, debris slides,
slumps, rock avalanches, etc.), which pose a considerable risk for the existence of human society. An important causative
factor in these dynamically developing hazardous processes is, among other factors, the way in which land has been used in
the last three centuries. Therefore, the occurrence of various types of slope deformations is studied in terms of their relation
to deep-seated gravitational deformations and in terms of other limiting factors (structural geological, morphological and
climatic factors, manmade impacts, etc.). The paper presents several case studies of slope deformations (Velká Čantoryje Mt,
Lysá hora Mt, Ropice Mt and Smrk Mt) in the area of the Outer Carpathians within the territory of the Czech Republic and also
adverts to some consequences in terms of the socioeconomic structure of the landscape. 相似文献
147.
The state of land subsidence and prediction approaches due to groundwater withdrawal in China 总被引:13,自引:6,他引:7
This article gives a general introduction to land subsidence with the prediction approaches due to withdrawal of groundwater
in three subsided/subsiding regions in China: the deltaic plain of Yangtse River (YRDP), North China Plain (NCP), and Fenwei
Plain (FP). On YRDP, Shanghai is the typical subsided/subsiding city; on NCP Tianjin is the typical subsided/subsiding city,
and on FP Taiyuan is the typical subsided/subsiding city. The subsided area with subsidence over 200 mm on YRDP is about 10,000 km2 and the maximum subsided value reached 2.9 m at Shanghai; on NCP the subsided area reached 60,000 km2 with the maximum subsidence of 3.9 m at Tianjing; on FP the subsided area is relatively smaller than that on the other two
plains and is about 1,135 km2 with maximum subsidence of 3.7 m at Taiyuan city. In order to protect the civil and industrial facilities, it is necessary
to predict the future development of land subsidence based on present state. Many researchers proposed several approaches
to predict the land subsidence due to groundwater withdrawal according to different geological conditions and groundwater
withdrawal practice. This article classifies these approaches into five categories: (i) statistical methods; (ii) 1D numerical
method; (iii) quasi-3D seepage model; (iv) 3D seepage model; (v) fully coupled 3D model. In China, the former four categories
are presently employed in the prediction practice and their merits and demerits are discussed. According to the prediction
practice, 3D seepage model is the best method presently. 相似文献
148.
Rain-induced debris and mudflow triggering factors assessment in the Santiago cordilleran foothills,Central Chile 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Debris and mudflows are some of the main geological hazards in the mountain foothills of the Chilean capital city of Santiago.
There, the risk of flows triggered in the basins of ravines that drain the range into the city increases with time due to
the city growth. A multivariate statistical study based on the logistic regression method is presented. The model provides
equations that allow the computation of combined meteorological triggering factors associated with a probability of rain-induced
flow occurrence. Daily rainfall, accumulated rainfall and the snowfall level, traditionally considered as the relevant factors,
are analysed for a 25-year period. The results show a strong relevance of the rainfall on the day of the flow event over the
other factors. However, the relatively low probabilities returned for some real flow events suggest that the model does not
capture all the significant variables and the problem is more complex than as it has been traditionally assumed, and further
investigations are needed to develop predictive models of flow triggering. 相似文献
149.
Rosa Nappi Giuliana Alessio Giovanni Bronzino Carlo Terranova Giuseppe Vilardo 《Natural Hazards》2008,45(1):73-85
In this article the implementation and potential of the Seismotectonic Information System of the Campania Region (SISCam)
are described, in particular an application of this Web-based GIS system to the seismotectonic analysis of the Sannio area
(Southern Apennines) is performed. WEB-GIS technologies greatly contribute to both the environmental monitoring and the disaster
management of areas affected by high natural risks. Specifically the SISCam system has been developed with the aim of providing
easy access and fast diffusion, through Internet technology, of the most significant geological, geophysical, and territorial
data relative to the Campania Region. The Sannio area has been selected as our application example because it is among the
most active seismic regions in Italy. This portion of the Southern Apennines which was hit by the June 5, 1688 strong earthquake
(M
W = 6.7, CPTI 1999) and by some low- and moderate-energy seismic sequences (1990–1992, 1997), is characterized by a complex
inherited tectonic setting and low-tectonic deformation rates that hide the seismogenic sources position. Since this case
study turned out to be complicated, the use of the SIScam WEB-GIS has become indispensable because it allowed us to visualize,
integrate and analyze all the data available, in order to obtain an accurate and direct picture of the seismotectonic setting
of the area. Moreover, a different approach of data analysis was necessary, due to the lack of up-to-date neotectonic and
structural data; therefore, the operation of this GIS system enabled us to process and generate some original informative
layers, through image analysis, such as new structural lineaments represented on a map of the potential active faults of the
area, which has been the final result of our application, as a contribution to new knowledge about the local seismic risk
parameters. 相似文献
150.
Serena C. Tarantino Michele Zema Tiziana Boffa Ballaran Paolo Ghigna 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2008,35(2):71-76
High-pressure single-crystal X-ray diffraction measurements of lattice parameters of the compound Li2VOSiO4, which crystallises with a natisite-type structure, has been carried out to a pressure of 8.54(5) GPa at room temperature.
Unit-cell volume data were fitted with a second-order Birch-Murnaghan EoS (BM-EoS), simultaneously refining V
0 and K
0 using the data weighted by the uncertainties in V. The bulk modulus is K
0 = 99(1) GPa, with K′ fixed to 4. Refinements of third order equations-of-state yielded values of K′ that did not differ significantly from 4. The compressibility of the unit-cell is strongly anisotropic with the c axis (K
0(c) = 49.7 ± 0.5 GPa) approximately four times more compressible than the a axis (K
0(a) = 195 ± 3 GPa). 相似文献