A regime shift in sediment export from a coastal watershed during a record wet winter,California: Implications for landscape response to hydroclimatic extremes

Small, steep watersheds are prolific sediment sources from which sediment flux is highly sensitive to climatic changes. Storm intensity and frequency are widely expected to increase during the 21st century, and so assessing the response of small, steep watersheds to extreme rainfall is essential to understanding landscape response to climate change. During record winter rainfall in 2016–2017, the San Lorenzo River, coastal California, had nine flow peaks representing 2–10‐year flood magnitudes. By the third flood, fluvial suspended sediment showed a regime shift to greater and coarser sediment supply, coincident with numerous landslides in the watershed. Even with no singular catastrophic flood, these flows exported more than half as much sediment as had a 100‐year flood 35 years earlier, substantially enlarging the nearshore delta. Annual sediment load in 2017 was an order of magnitude greater than during an average‐rainfall year, and 500‐fold greater than in a recent drought. These anomalous sediment inputs are critical to the coastal littoral system, delivering enough sediment, sometimes over only a few days, to maintain beaches for several years. Future projections of megadroughts punctuated by major atmospheric‐river storm activity suggest that interannual sediment‐yield variations will become more extreme than today in the western USA, with potential consequences for coastal management, ecosystems, and water‐storage capacity. The occurrence of two years with major sediment export over the past 35 years that were not associated with extremes of the El Niño Southern Oscillation or Pacific Decadal Oscillation suggests caution in interpreting climatic signals from marine sedimentary deposits derived from small, steep, coastal watersheds, to avoid misinterpreting the frequencies of those cycles. Published 2018. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.     

Evaluation of snow water equivalent datasets over the Saint‐Maurice river basin region of southern Québec

A 10‐km gridded snow water equivalent (SWE) dataset is developed over the Saint‐Maurice River basin region in southern Québec from kriging of observed snow survey data for evaluation of SWE products. The gridded SWE dataset covers 1980–2014 and is based on manual gravimetric snow surveys carried out on February 1, March 1, March 15, April 1, and April 15 of each snow season, which captures the annual maximum SWE (SWEM) with a mean interpolation error of ±19%. The dataset is used to evaluate SWEM from a range of sources including satellite retrievals, reanalyses, Canadian regional climate models, and the Canadian Meteorological Centre operational snow depth analysis. We also evaluate a number of solid precipitation datasets to determine their contribution to systematic errors in estimated SWEM. None of the evaluated datasets is able to provide estimates of SWEM that are within operational requirements of ±15% error, and insufficient solid precipitation is determined to be one of the main reasons. The Climate System Forecast Reanalysis is the only dataset where snowfall is sufficiently large to generate SWEM values comparable to observations. Inconsistencies in precipitation are also found to have a strong impact on year‐to‐year variability in SWEM dataset performance and spread. Version 3.6.1 of the Canadian Land Surface Scheme land surface scheme driven with ERA‐Interim output downscaled by Version 5.0.1 of the Canadian Regional Climate Model was the best physically based model at explaining the observed spatial and temporal variability in SWEM (root‐mean‐square error [RMSE] = 33%) and has potential for lower error with adjusted precipitation. Operational snow products relying on the real‐time snow depth observing network performed poorly due to a lack of real‐time data and the strong local scale variability of point snow depth observations. The results underscore the need for more effort to be invested in improving solid precipitation estimates for use in snow hydrology applications.     

Bayesian posterior predictive return levels for environmental extremes

A key aim of most extreme value analyses is the estimation of the r-year return level; the wind speed, or sea-surge, or rainfall level (for example), we might expect to see once (on average) every r years. There are compelling arguments for working within the Bayesian setting here, not least the natural extension to prediction via the posterior predictive distribution. Indeed, for practitioners the posterior predictive return level has been cited as perhaps the most useful point summary from a Bayesian analysis of extremes, and yet little is known of the properties of this statistic. In this paper, we attempt to assess the performance of predictive return levels relative to their estimative counterparts obtained directly from the return level posterior distribution; in particular, we make comparisons with the return level posterior mean, mode and 95% credible upper bound. Differences between the predictive return level and standard summaries from the return level posterior distribution, for wind speed extremes observed in the UK, motivates this work. A large scale simulation study then reveals the superiority of the predictive return level over the other posterior summaries in many cases of practical interest.     

The transverse dynamics of flow in a tidal channel within a greater strait

Vessel-mounted ADCP measurements were conducted to describe the transverse structure of flow between the two headland tips in Khuran Channel, south of Iran (26° 45′ N), where the highest tidal velocities in spring tides were ~?1.8 m/s. Current profiles were obtained using a 614.4 kHz TRDI WorkHorse Broadband ADCP over nine repetitions of three cross-channel transects during one semidiurnal tidal cycle. The 2.2-km-long transects ran north/south across the channel. A least-square fit to semidiurnal, quarter-diurnal, and sixth diurnal harmonics was used to separate the tidal signals from the observed flow. Spatial gradients showed that the greatest lateral shears and convergences were found over the northern channel and near the northern headland tip due to very sharp bathymetric changes in this area. Contrary to the historical assumption, the across-channel momentum balance in the Khuran Channel was ageostrophic. The current study represents one of the few examples reported where the lateral friction influences the across-channel momentum balance.     

Fine mesh screening of midden material and the recovery of fish bone: The development of flotation and deflocculation techniques for an efficient and effective procedure

The absence of fish remains in archaeological sites in Moreton Bay, southeast Queensland, Australia, may be a function of recovery techniques, rather than a reflection of resource paucity and late onset of occupation, as has been posited in archaeological literature. An excavation on Peel Island in Moreton Bay was devised, in part, to test this proposition, and a 1‐mm mesh screen was used to enhance recovery. But sorting this fine fraction took 20 h. In this article we outline experiments to find a more efficient and effective technique for sieving and sorting fine fraction archaeological deposits, using methods borrowed from soil science. We show how sorting time can be reduced to 2 h 30 min per 100 g sample and argue that the vast increase in knowledge about the site occurring as a result of using the very fine mesh sieve warrants the continued application of these laboratory methods. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Enstatite meteorite clasts in Almahata Sitta and other polymict ureilites: Implications for the formation of asteroid 2008 TC3 and the history of enstatite meteorite parent asteroids

The anomalous polymict ureilite Almahata Sitta (AhS) fell in 2008 when asteroid 2008 TC₃ disintegrated over Sudan and formed a strewn field of disaggregated clasts of various ureilitic and chondritic types. We studied the petrology and oxygen isotope compositions of enstatite meteorite samples from the University of Khartoum (UoK) collection of AhS. In addition, we describe the first bona fide (3.5 mm-sized) clast of an enstatite chondrite (EC) in a typical polymict ureilite, Northwest Africa (NWA) 10657. We evaluate whether 2008 TC₃ and typical polymict ureilites have a common origin, and examine implications for the history of enstatite meteorite asteroids in the solar system. Based on mineralogy, mineral compositions, and textures, the seven AhS EC clasts studied comprise one EH_a3 (S151), one EL_b3 (AhS 1002), two EH_b4-5 (AhS 2012, AhS 26), two EH_b5-6 or possibly impact melt rocks (AhS 609, AhS 41), and one EL_b6-7 (AhS 17), while the EC clast in NWA 10657 is EH_a3. Oxygen isotope compositions analyzed for five of these are similar to those of EC from non-UoK collections of AhS, and within the range of individual EC meteorites. There are no correlations of oxygen isotope composition with chemical group or subgroup. The EC clasts from the UoK collection show the same large range of types as those from non-UoK collections of AhS. The enstatite achondrite, AhS 60, is a unique type (not known as an individual meteorite) that has also been found among non-UoK AhS samples. EC are the most abundant non-ureilitic clasts in AhS but previously were thought to be absent in typical polymict ureilites, necessitating a distinct origin for AhS. The discovery of an EC in NWA 10657 changes this. We argue that the types of materials in AhS and typical polymict ureilites are essentially similar, indicating a common origin. We elaborate on a model in which AhS and typical polymict ureilites formed in the same regolith on a ureilitic daughter body. Most non-ureilitic clasts are remnants of impactors implanted at ~50–60 Myr after CAI. Differences in abundances can be explained by the stochastic nature of impactor addition. There is no significant difference between the chemical/petrologic types of EC in polymict ureilites and individual EC meteorites. This implies that fragments of the same populations of EC parent bodies were available as impactors at ~50–60 Myr after CAI and recently. This can be explained if materials excavated from various depths on EC bodies at ~50–60 Myr after CAI were reassembled into mixed layers, leaving relatively large bodies intact to survive 4 billion years. Polymict ureilites record a critical timestep in the collisional and dynamical evolution of the solar system, showing that asteroids that may have accreted at distant locations had migrated to within proximity of one another by 50–60 Myr after CAI, and providing constraints on the dynamical processes that could have caused such migrations.     

Monitoring agricultural cropping patterns across the Laurentian Great Lakes Basin using MODIS-NDVI data

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) 16-day composite data product (MOD12Q) was used to develop annual cropland and crop-specific map products (corn, soybeans, and wheat) for the Laurentian Great Lakes Basin (GLB). The crop area distributions and changes in crop rotations were characterized by comparing annual crop map products for 2005, 2006, and 2007. The total acreages for corn and soybeans were relatively balanced for calendar years 2005 (31,462 km² and 31,283 km², respectively) and 2006 (30,766 km² and 30,972 km², respectively). Conversely, corn acreage increased approximately 21% from 2006 to 2007, while soybean and wheat acreage decreased approximately 9% and 21%, respectively. Two-year crop rotational change analyses were conducted for the 2005–2006 and 2006–2007 time periods. The large increase in corn acreages for 2007 introduced crop rotation changes across the GLB. Compared to 2005–2006, crop rotation patterns for 2006–2007 resulted in increased corn–corn, soybean–corn, and wheat–corn rotations. The increased corn acreages could have potential negative impacts on nutrient loadings, pesticide exposures, and sediment-mediated habitat degradation. Increased in US corn acreages in 2007 were related to new biofuel mandates, while Canadian increases were attributed to higher world-wide corn prices. Additional study is needed to determine the potential impacts of increases in corn-based ethanol agricultural production on watershed ecosystems and receiving waters.     

Event-based classification for global study of river flood generating processes

Better understanding of which processes generate floods in a catchment can improve flood frequency analysis and potentially climate change impacts assessment. However, current flood classification methods are either not transferable across locations or do not provide event-based information. We therefore developed a location-independent, event-based flood classification methodology that is applicable in different climates and returns a classification of all flood events, including extreme ones. We use precipitation time series and very simply modelled soil moisture and snowmelt as inputs for a decision tree. A total of 113,635 events in 4155 catchments worldwide were classified into one of five hydro-climatological flood generating processes: short rain, long rain, excess rainfall, snowmelt and a combination of rain and snow. The new classification was tested for its robustness and evaluated with available information; these two tests are often lacking in current flood classification approaches. According to the evaluation, the classification is mostly successful and indicates excess rainfall as the most common dominant process. However, the dominant process is not very informative in most catchments, as there is a high at-site variability in flood generating processes. This is particularly relevant for the estimation of extreme floods which diverge from their usual flood generation pattern, especially in the United Kingdom, Northern France, Southeastern United States, and India.     

A GIS-based multi-proxy analysis of the evolution of subglacial dynamics of the Quebec–Labrador ice dome,northeastern Quebec,Canada

The glacial records of the inner-core regions of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) document complex yet coherent patterns reflecting ice-sheet change (e.g. ice-divide migration), providing unique insights into past glacial conditions. This study develops a conceptual model of subglacial dynamics evolution within a major ice-dispersal centre of the LIS in northeastern Quebec, Canada using a GIS-based analysis of the surficial geologic record. Multiple proxies of subglacial conditions (subglacial streamlined landforms, lake density and lake area over thin drift/bedrock) were analysed through grid-overlay techniques and then classified based on different proxy variables ranging from highly mobile warm-based to immobile cold-based conditions. An additional proxy (till blanket) was used to identify areas of thick till deposition, but with few proxies (few lake or landform metrics). Based on local ice-flow reconstructions, the most ‘relict’ glacial terrain zone (GTZ1) has warm-based conditions over 66% of its area and is remarkably well preserved, suggesting laterally extensive warm-based conditions during the oldest identified ice-flow phase. This relict glacial terrain is partially overprinted by two subsequent ice-flow phases in spatially restricted zones in the northeast (73% warm-based), east-central (41% warm-based), and northwest (33% warm-based) of the study area. A zone of more sluggish conditions (only 3% warm-based) was identified in the highlands at the centre of the study area, characterized by thin till cover, few landforms, yet with large patches of relatively abundant small lakes, indicative of areal scouring. No clear evidence of sustained cold-based conditions (i.e. high chemical index of alteration values or high ¹⁰Be abundances) was found in the study area. These results suggest that warm-based conditions (active erosion and/or deposition) were uniformly widespread during the earliest ice-flow phase, later becoming more spatially restricted with broader sluggish ice conditions. These spatially restricted regions of warm-based subglacial regimes were likely controlled by surrounding and down-flow ice streaming. © 2020 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd