Stochastic model for hepatitis B virus infection through maternal (vertical) and environmental (horizontal) transmission with applications to basic reproductive number estimation and economic appraisal of preventive strategies

Elucidating the temporal natural history of Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection provides not only useful information for assessing the spread of HBV infection but also a bedrock for economic appraisal of population-based preventive strategies (such as universal vaccination). HBV transmissions are transmitted through the maternal (vertical) route and environmental (horizontal) route. As the infection process from susceptible to active virus replication and finally to recovery state or to carrier state through both routes is not directly observable, mathematical models were therefore proposed to quantitatively elucidate the dynamic process of HBV infection with time. We began with a simple two-state model (from susceptible to infection) and further developed a five-state (including susceptible, latent phase, active viral replication, carrier, and recovery states) stochastic process to quantify the dynamics of HBV infection, making allowances for a mixed proportion of vertical and horizontal transmissions. The data used in the estimation, which were collected before implementation of a policy for universal HBV vaccination, were derived from several previous serum prevalence studies, including both low (northern) and high (southern) HBV prevalence areas, in Taiwan. The parameters obtained from stochastic models were converted to compute the basic reproductive number (R₀) in each study to indicate the extent of the spread of HBV infection. By linking the temporal natural history of HBV infection with the previously established Markov process for the sequelae of HBV infection (chronic hepatitis infection, liver cirrhosis, and hepatocelluar carcinoma), we developed a Markov cycle decision tree to evaluate the two population-based preventive strategies related to vaccination and maternal lamivudine use with a cost-effectiveness analysis. In the five-state model, horizontal transmission was found to contribute more to HBV infection than vertical transmission in the northern area (59 vs. 41 %), whereas vertical transmission was more likely than horizontal transmission in the southern area (80 vs. 20 %). After considering the parameters of the two transmission routes, annual infection rate (person-years) for susceptible subjects was higher in the northern area (0.35) than the southern area (0.011). A similar finding was noted for annual rate of the transition from the latent period to active viral replications (1.12 in the northern area and 0.072 in the southern area). Annual rate of the conversion from active viral replication to the carrier state was higher in the southern area (0.184) than the northern area (0.119). Annual recovery rates were 0.014 in the northern area and 0.024 in the southern area for the carrier and 0.048 and 0.088 for transient viremia. The R₀ at age 30 using the parameters obtained from the five-state stochastic model was estimated as 4.88 in the northern and 7.03 in the southern area. Regarding the findings of economic appraisal, both preventive strategies were cost-saving, yielding the negative value of incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, compared with the baseline group (no intervention), regardless of areas. The preventive strategies in the southern area were more cost-saving than those in the northern area. The consolidation of elucidating the temporal natural history of HBV infection, estimating basic reproductive number, and conducting an economic appraisal of population-based preventive strategy can aid health policy-makers in designing effective preventive strategies in other countries worldwide where HBV is still prevalent. However, the empirical findings on transmission routes and the temporal evolution of HBV infection varying with areas should be considered with great caution as only two studies were modeled.     

An Evaluation of Internet Versus Paper‐based Methods for Public Participation Geographic Information Systems (PPGIS)

Public participation geographic information systems (PPGIS) are an increasingly important tool for collecting spatial information about the social attributes of place. The availability of Internet‐based options for implementing PPGIS presents new opportunities for increased efficiency and new modes of access. Here we used a mixed‐mode approach to evaluate paper versus Internet mapping methods for the same PPGIS survey in Wyoming. We compared participant characteristics, mapping participation, and the spatial distribution of mapped attributes between participants who responded to the paper versus Internet option. The response rate for those who completed the paper version of the survey was nearly 2.5 times the response rate of the Internet version. Paper participants also mapped significantly more places than did Internet participants (43 vs. 18). Internet participants tended to be younger, more likely to have a college degree, and had lived in the region for less time than paper participants. For all but one attribute there was no difference in the spatial distribution of places mapped between Internet and paper methods. Using a paper‐based PPGIS survey resulted in a higher response rate, reduced participant bias, and greater mapping participation. However, survey mode did not influence the spatial distribution of the PPGIS data.     

Controlled electrochemical dissolution of hydrothermal and sedimentary pyrite

Electrochemically controlled pyrite dissolution was performed with three pyrite materials from different geological origins under mixed potential and high overpotential conditions. Both solid electrodes and C paste electrodes of powdered pyrite were used. The rate of pyrite dissolution increased with applied positive potential and was strongly affected by temperature. Current density measurements over the applied potential range successfully described the rate of pyrite dissolution of each pyrite electrode. Controlled dissolution performed under mixed potential conditions on the solid electrodes successfully reflected the same pyrite reactivity and dissolution rate order as in batch reactor dissolution studies with the same pyrite materials. Therefore, the relative reactivity of different pyrite materials can be determined through current density measurements on their solid electrodes under mixed potential conditions. This technique could be a useful tool to compare rapidly the relative reactivity for different pyrite materials. In contrast, electrochemically controlled dissolution studies with C paste electrodes constructed with fine-grained pyrite and paraffin/graphite mixture did not result in accurate ranking of pyrite samples by dissolution rate.     

A multi-proxy paleolimnological reconstruction of Holocene climate conditions in the Great Basin, United States

A sediment core spanning  7000 cal yr BP recovered from Stella Lake, a small sub-alpine lake located in Great Basin National Park, Nevada, was analyzed for subfossil chironomids (non-biting midges), diatoms, and organic content (estimated by loss-on-ignition (LOI)). Subfossil chironomid analysis indicates that Stella Lake was characterized by a warm, middle Holocene, followed by a cool “Neoglacial” period, with the last two millennia characterized by a return to warmer conditions. Throughout the majority of the core the Stella Lake diatom-community composition is dominated by small, periphytic taxa which are suggestive of shallow, cool, alkaline, oligotrophic waters with extensive seasonal ice cover. A reconstruction of mean July air temperature (MJAT) was developed by applying a midge-based inference model for MJAT (two-component WA-PLS) consisting of 79 lakes and 54 midge taxa (r_jack² = 0.55, RMSEP = 0.9°C). Comparison of the chironomid-inferred temperature record to existing regional paleoclimate reconstructions suggests that the midge-inferred temperatures correspond well to regional patterns. This multi-proxy record provides valuable insight into regional Holocene climate and environmental conditions by providing a quantitative reconstruction of peak Holocene warmth and aquatic ecosystem response to these changes in the Great Basin, a region projected to experience increased aridity and higher temperatures.     

Infrastructure hazard resilience trends: an analysis of 25 years of research

Hazard research has made significant strides over the last several decades, answering critical questions surrounding vulnerability and recovery. Recently, resilience has come to the forefront of scholarly debates and practitioner strategies, yet there remain challenges implementing resilience in practice, the result of a complex web of research that spread across numerous fields of study. As a result, there is a need to analyze and reflect on the current state of resilience literature. We reviewed 241 journal articles from the Web of Science and Engineering Village databases from 1990 to 2015 to analyze research trends in geographic location of studies, methods employed, units of analysis, and resilience dimensions studied, as well as correlations between each of these categories. The majority of the studies analyzed were conducted in North America, used quantitative methods, focused on infrastructure and community units of analysis, and studied governance, infrastructure, and economic dimensions of resilience. This analysis points to the need to: (1) conduct studies in developing country contexts, where resilience is particularly important; (2) employ mixed-methods for additional depth to quantitative studies; (3) connect units of analysis, such as infrastructure and community; and (4) expand on the measurement and study of environmental and social dimensions of resilience.     

Stress–strain behavior of cement-improved clays: testing and modeling

The results of a series of laboratory tests on unimproved and cement-improved specimens of two clays are presented, and the ability of a bounding surface elastoplastic constitutive model to predict the observed behavior is investigated. The results of the oedometer, triaxial compression, extension, and cyclic shear tests demonstrated that the unimproved soil behavior is similar to that of soft clays. Cement-improved specimens exhibited peak/residual behavior and dilation, as well as higher strength and stiffness over unimproved samples in triaxial compression. Two methods of accounting for the artificial overconsolidation effect created by cement improvement are detailed. The apparent preconsolidation pressure method is considerably easier to use, but the fitted OCR method gave better results over varied levels of confining stresses. While the bounding surface model predicted the monotonic behavior of unimproved soil very well, the predictions made for cyclic behavior and for improved soils were only of limited success.     

Predicting phosphorus dynamics in complex terrains using a variable source area hydrology model

Phosphorus (P) loss from agricultural watersheds has long been a critical water quality problem, the control of which has been the focus of considerable research and investment. Preventing P loss depends on accurately representing the hydrological and chemical processes governing P mobilization and transport. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a watershed model commonly used to predict run‐off and non‐point source pollution transport. SWAT simulates run‐off employing either the curve number (CN) or the Green and Ampt methods, both assume infiltration‐excess run‐off, although shallow soils underlain by a restricting layer commonly generate saturation‐excess run‐off from variable source areas (VSA). In this study, we compared traditional SWAT with a re‐conceptualized version, SWAT‐VSA, that represents VSA hydrology, in a complex agricultural watershed in east central Pennsylvania. The objectives of this research were to provide further evidence of SWAT‐VSA's integrated and distributed predictive capabilities against measured surface run‐off and stream P loads and to highlight the model's ability to drive sub‐field management of P. Thus, we relied on a detailed field management database to parameterize the models. SWAT and SWAT‐VSA predicted discharge similarly well (daily Nash–Sutcliffe efficiencies of 0.61 and 0.66, respectively), but SWAT‐VSA outperformed SWAT in predicting P export from the watershed. SWAT estimated lower P loss (0.0–0.25 kg ha^?1) from agricultural fields than SWAT‐VSA (0.0–1.0+ kg ha^?1), which also identified critical source areas – those areas generating large run‐off and P losses at the sub‐field level. These results support the use of SWAT‐VSA in predicting watershed‐scale P losses and identifying critical source areas of P loss in landscapes with VSA hydrology. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Tidal waves in the atmosphere and their effects

A method of high resolution periodic signal reconstruction has been developed and implemented into software algorithms. This method, that utilizes a narrow band-pass filter, permits the detection of tidal waves in the atmosphere. Our paper describes and reviews the strength of this method, commonly referred to as the KZFT algorithm. The focus of this paper is given to the recovery of tides in the atmosphere as well as to a discussion of specifics of the reconstruction of these waves. We conclude with several examples regarding the impact of the tidal wave to other atmospheric variables, including wind speed and cloud cover, but details are left for further investigation.     

Numerical issues in computing inundation areas over natural terrains using Savage-Hutter theory

When characterizing geologic natural hazards, specifically granular flows including pyroclastic flows, debris avalanches and debris flows, perhaps the most important factor to consider is the area of inundation. One of the key parameters demarcating the leading edge of inundation is the run-out distance. To define the run-out distance, it is necessary to know when the flow stops. Numerical experiments are presented for determining a stopping criterion and exploring the suitability of the Savage-Hutter theory for computing inundation areas of granular flows. The stopping criterion is a function of dimensionless average velocity, pile aspect ratio and internal and bed friction angle and can be implemented on either a global (entire flow) or local (small areas of the flow) level. Slumping piles on a horizontal surface, and geophysical flows over complex topography were simulated. Mountainous areas, such as Colima volcano, Mexico; Casita, Nicaragua; Little Tahoma Peak, USA, and the San Bernardino Mountains, USA, were used as test regions. These areas have combinations of steep, open slopes and sinuous channels. Because of differences in topography and physical scaling, slumping piles in the laboratory and geophysical flows in natural terrain must be scaled differently to determine a reasonable dimensionless relationship for the stopping criterion.     

Constraints on gas giant satellite formation from the interior states of partially differentiated satellites

An icy satellite whose interior is composed of a homogeneous ice/rock mixture must avoid melting during its entire history, including during its formation when it was heated by deposition of accretional energy and short-lived radioisotopes. Estimates of the temperature rise associated with radiogenic and accretional heating, coupled with limits on satellite melting can be used to constrain the timing of formation of a partially differentiated satellite relative to the origin of the calcium-aluminum-rich inclusions (CAI's) as a function of its accretion timescale and the protosatellite disk temperature (Td). Geological characterization and spacecraft radio tracking data suggest that Callisto, the outermost regular satellite of Jupiter, and Saturn's mid-sized satellite Rhea, are partially differentiated if their interiors are in hydrostatic equilibrium. Because the specific conditions during the satellites' formation are uncertain, we determine accretional temperature profiles for a range of values for Td and accretion time scales with the limiting assumption that impactors deposit all their energy close to the surface, leading to maximally effective radiative cooling. We find that Callisto can remain unmelted during formation if it accreted on a time scale longer than 0.6 Myr. Considering both radiogenic and accretional heating, Callisto must have finished accreting no earlier than ∼4 Myr after formation of CAI's for Td=100 K. Warmer disks or larger impactors that deposit their energy at depth in the satellite would require longer and/or later formation times. If Rhea accreted slowly (in 10⁵ to 10⁶ years), its growth must have finished no earlier than ∼2 Myr after CAI's for 70 K?Td?250 K to avoid early melting. If Rhea formed quickly (?10³ yr), its formation must have been delayed until at least 2 to 7 Myr after CAI's and in a disk with Td<190 K in the small impactor limit. If the satellites form in slow-inflow-supplied disks as proposed by Canup and Ward [Canup, R.M., Ward, W.R., 2002. Astron. J. 124, 3404-3423], the implied satellite ages suggest that gas inflow to the giant planets ceased no earlier than ∼4 Myr after CAI's, comparable to average nebular lifetimes inferred from observations of circumstellar disks.