Evaluation of operational tropical cyclone intensity forecasts over north Indian Ocean issued by India Meteorological Department

India Meteorological Department (IMD) introduced the objective tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecast valid for next 24 h over the north Indian Ocean (NIO) in 2003 and extended up to 72 h in 2009. In this study, an attempt is made to evaluate the TC intensity forecast issued by IMD during 2005–2011 (7 years) by calculating the absolute error (AE), root mean square error (RMSE) and skill in intensity forecast in terms of maximum sustained surface wind (MSW). The accuracy of TC intensity forecast has been analysed with respect to basin of formation (Bay of Bengal, Arabian Sea and NIO as whole), season of formation (pre-monsoon and post-monsoon seasons), intensity of TCs (cyclonic storm and severe cyclonic storm or higher intensities) and type of track of TCs (climatological/straight moving and recurving/looping type). The study shows that the average AE (RMSE) in intensity forecast is about 11(14), 14(19) and 20(26) knots, respectively, for 24-, 48- and 72-h forecasts over the NIO as a whole during 2009–2011. The skill of intensity forecast is about 44 %(48 %), 60 %(58 %) and 60 %(65 %) for 24-, 48- and 72-h forecasts during 2009–2011 with respect to AE (RMSE). There is no significant improvement in terms of reduction in AE and RMSE of MSW forecast over the NIO like that over the northwest Pacific and northern Atlantic Oceans during 2005–2011. However, the skill in intensity forecast compared to persistence method has significantly improved by about 6 %(10 %) and 9 %(8 %) per year, respectively, for 12- and 24-h forecasts considering the AE (RMSE) during 2005–2011. There is also significant increasing trend in percentage of 24-h intensity forecasts with error of 10 knots or less during 2005–2011.     

The role of amphiboles in the metamorphic evolution of the UHP rocks: a case study from the Tso Morari Complex, northwest Himalayas

Amphiboles represent a crucial phase of the ultra-high-pressure (UHP) metamorphic rocks as their solid solution behavior reflects both bulk compositional and P–T changes. Three different types of amphibole have been reported from the UHP metamafic rocks of the Tso Morari Crystalline Complex, NW Himalayas: Na-rich (glaucophane); Na–Ca-rich (barroisite, taramite, winchite) and Ca-rich (tremolite, magnesio-hornblende, pargasite). The Na-amphibole is presented as a core of the zoned amphibole with Na–Ca-rich rim; Na–Ca-amphibole is presented as inclusion in garnets as well as in matrix, and Ca-amphibole is generally found in the matrix. The Na–Ca-amphibole is observed at two different stages of metamorphism. The first is pre-UHP, and the second is post-garnet–omphacite assemblage though with a significant difference in composition. The pressure–temperature estimations of the formation of these two sets of Na–Ca-amphiboles corroborate their textural associations. Ca-rich amphiboles are generally present in the matrix either as symplectite with plagioclase or as a pseudomorph after garnet along with other secondary minerals like chlorite and biotite. Two different types of zoning have been observed in the amphibole grains: (1) core is Na-rich followed by Na–Ca rim and (2) core of Na–Ca-amphibole is followed by Ca-rich rim. The pre-UHP (or the prograde P–T path) and post-UHP stages (or the retrograde P–T path) of Tso Morari eclogites are defined by characteristic amphibole compositions, viz. Na/Na–Ca-amphibole, Na–Ca-amphibole and Ca-amphibole and thus indicate their utility in inferring crustal evolution of this UHP terrain.     

Thermodynamics of Gauss-Bonnet brane with modified Chaplygin gas

We discuss the generalized second law of thermodynamics in the braneworld scenario with induced gravity and curvature correction terms. To explain the present acceleration of the universe, a dark energy component has been chosen on the 3-brane in the form of Modified Chaplygin Gas together with a perfect fluid as the dark matter and we show that the GSLT is valid on the apparent horizon in late time.     

Studies on the shift in the frequency of the first Schumann resonance mode during a solar proton event

The variation of the first Schumann resonance (SR) frequency spectra observed from the recorded data over Kolkata (22.56°N, 88.5°E) during a solar proton event (SPE) on July 14, 2000 has been presented. It shows increase in frequency during X-ray bursts and decrease during the period of occurrence of an SPE. The results from some other locations for the same event are also reported. The severe X-ray bursts recorded just before the proton event exhibit enhancement in frequency of the first mode due to enhancement of ionization in the D-region of the ionosphere. Some attempts are made to explain the observed variation during solar proton events in terms of the perturbations within the Earth–ionosphere waveguide on the basis of two-layer-model.     

SCS-CN and GIS-based approach for identifying potential water harvesting sites in the Kali Watershed,Mahi River Basin,India

The Kali sub-watershed is situated in the semi-arid region of Gujarat, India and forms a part of the Mahi River Watershed. This watershed receives an average annual rainfall of 900mm mainly between July and September. Due to high runoff potential, evapo-transpiration and poor infiltration, drought like situation prevails in this area from December to June almost every year. In this paper, augmentation of water resource is proposed by construction of runoff harvesting structures like check dam, percolation pond, farm pond, well and subsurface dyke. The site suitability for different water harvesting structures is determined by considering spatially varying parameters like runoff potential, slope, fracture pattern and micro-watershed area. GIS is utilised as a tool to store, analyse and integrate spatial and attribute information pertaining to runoff, slope, drainage and fracture. The runoff derived by SCS-CN method is a function of runoff potential which can be expressed in terms of runoff coefficient (ratio between the runoff and rainfall) which can be classified into three classes, viz., high (>40%), moderate (20–40%) and low (<20%). In addition to IMSD, FAO specifications for water harvesting/recharging structures, parameters such as effective storage, rock mass permeability are herein considered to augment effective storage. Using the overlay and decision tree concepts in GIS, potential water harvesting sites are identified. The derived sites are field investigated for suitability and implementation. In all, the accuracy of the site selection at implementation level varies from 80–100%.     

Wormhole and its analogue in brane world

In Einstein gravity, for an inhomogeneous phantom energy distribution having linear equation of state (but anisotropic), there exists simple exact solution for spherically symmetric space time describing a wormhole. At infinity, the space time is not asymptotically flat and possesses a regular cosmological Killing horizon with an infinite area. In this work, we have shown that, this wormhole solution is also possible in brane world for various matter distribution, which are not necessarily phantom in nature.     

Atmospheric surface layer characteristics with MONTBLEX data

Data obtained from the 30m high MONTBLEX tower installed at the Indian Institute of Technology, Kharagpur are described. Data on wind speed and direction, temperature and humidity were recorded during the first week of July 1989 at six levels on the tower. They indicate some of the atmospheric surface layer characteristics. Using two levels of tower data involving wind speed and temperature a profile method was used for computing the surface fluxes of heat and momentum. A method for calculating the surface roughness length using the data was also used to obtain the vertical windspeed profile. The computed wind profile was compared with observations, while the surface roughness length was compared with values obtained by a least square fit. The computed surface fluxes were compared with theoretical values obtained by an energy budget method which uses only wind data at one level. The agreement was reasonably good.     

Analysis of rigid pavement on viscoelastic foundations subjected to moving loads

The dynamic behaviour of road structure has been analysed by idealizing the subgrade with different viscoelastic models having three and four elements. Complex Fourier transformation has been used to solve the resulting differential equations. The results are presented in non-dimensional form. A detailed study has been made to determine the effect of different parameters on the deflection and moment of the pavement. Also, the relative implications of idealizing the subgrade with different viscoelastic models have been studied. A numerical example has been solved.