The influence of the Arctic Oscillation on winter temperatures in Iran

Summary The impact of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) on the winter surface air temperature (SAT) over Iran is demonstrated. Winter SAT data for 50 years (1951–2000) are analyzed for the negative and the positive AO phases. Using the Median Sequential Correlation Analysis (MSCA) technique it is shown that the winter SAT is negatively correlated to the winter AO index for most parts of Iran. The winter AO index accounts for about 14% to 46% of the winter SAT variance. The positive (negative) SAT anomaly is found to be associated with the onset of the negative (positive) phase. The overall probability of below long-term mean temperature during the positive and the negative phases are estimated to be around 70% and 25%, respectively. For the negative phase, westerly winds that originate from the warm Atlantic regions increase over Iran and consequently positive temperature anomalies are found across the country. The positive AO phase is accompanied by northerly winds that allow continental polar and arctic air masses to move into Iran, producing below normal temperatures. The summer AO is found to explain about 25–32% of the winter SAT variance in Iran. The reason for this is explained by the significant correlation (+0.38) between the summer and the following winter AO indices. These results indicate that the summer climate is linked to changes in atmospheric circulation which persist through to the following autumn and winter.     

Seismic performance and damage incurred by monolithic concrete self-centering rocking walls under the effect of axial stress ratio

Self-centering rocking walls offer the possibility of minimizing repair costs and downtimes, and also nullify the residual drift after seismic events, thanks to their self-centering properties. In this paper, the effect of axial stress ratio on the behavior of monolithic self-centering rocking walls is investigated by utilizing a developed finite element model. To verify the validity of the finite element model, results and observed damage in the model are compared with those of a full-scale wall test. The axial stress ratio is varied from 0.024 to 0.30 while keeping the other structural parameters constant. For qualitative damage evaluation, the observed damage in the model compared with expected damage states of desired performance levels. In order to evaluate the incurred damage quantitatively, the amount of crushing and damage in the wall is calculated by utilizing several ratios (crushing ratio and damage ratio). Furthermore, seismic response factors (i.e., μ, R and C_d) are calculated for different axial stress ratio values. The obtained results showed that, in order to satisfy the requirements of desired performance levels, the maximum axial stress ratio should be approximately within the range of 0.10–0.15. In addition, the maximum overall damage ratio and crushing ratio are suggested to be less than 5%. For axial stress ratio higher than 0.15, the flag-shaped pattern of hysteresis curves completely disappeared and the variation of displacement ductility is less sensitive to axial stress ratio. Considering the maximum axial stress ratio limited to 0.150, values of 4 and 3.5 are conservatively proposed as a period-independent response modification factor and displacement modification factor of the investigated structural wall, respectively.     

Pesticides Removal Using Conventional and Low‐Cost Adsorbents: A Review

Worldwide pesticide usage has increased dramatically during the last three decades, coinciding with changing practices and increasing by intensive agriculture. This widespread use of pesticides for agricultural and non‐agricultural purposes has resulted in the presence of their residues in various environmental matrices. The occurrence of pesticides and their metabolite transported in rivers, channels, lakes, sea, air, soils, groundwater, and even drinking water, proves the high risk of these chemicals to human health and the environment. Therefore, pesticide removal is of an increasing concern. In this study, a review of the published literature dealing with pesticides removal process is presented. Firstly, pesticide removal by conventional means is briefly considered. Secondly, the use of the low‐cost sorbent through biosorption process is discussed comprehensively. The effect of factors such as pH, contact time, sorbent dosage, initial pesticide concentration, and optimization of biosorption conditions is also discussed. Kinetic, thermodynamic, and mechanism studies are also given. This study shows that both microorganisms and other materials with biological origin like agricultural by‐products may be used to this end. There is a significant potential for pesticide uptake by the use of various pristine and especially modified biosorbents. In the case of living organisms used as removal agents, degradation may also play a role in the total removal observed.     

Kinetic and equilibrium study of Ni(II) sorption from aqueous solutions onto Peganum harmala-L

In this study, the adsorption behavior of Ni(II) in an aqueous solution system using natural adsorbent Peganum harmala-L was measured via batch mode. The prepared sorbent was characterized by scanning electron microscope, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, N₂ adsorption–desorption and pH_zpc. Adsorption experiments were carried out by varying several conditions such as contact time, metal ion concentration and pH to assess kinetic and equilibrium parameters. The equilibrium data were analyzed based on the Langmuir, Freundlich, Temkin and Dubinin–Radushkevich isotherms. Kinetic data were analyzed using the pseudo-first-order, pseudo-second-order and intra-particular diffusion models. Experimental data showed that at contact time 60 min, metal ion concentration 50 mg/L and pH 6, a maximum amount of Ni(II) ions can be removed. The experimental data were best described by the Langmuir isotherm model as is evident from the high R ² value of 0.988. The adsorption capacity (q _m) obtained was 68.02 mg/g at an initial pH of 6 and a temperature of 25 °C. Kinetic studies of the adsorption showed that equilibrium was reached within 60 min of contact and the adsorption process followed the pseudo-first-order model. The obtained results show that P. harmala-L can be used as an effective and a natural low-cost adsorbent for the removal of Ni(II) from aqueous solutions.     

Study of Dominant Factors Affecting Cerchar Abrasivity Index

The Cerchar abrasion index is commonly used to represent rock abrasion for estimation of bit life and wear in various mining and tunneling applications. Although the test is simple and fast, there are some discrepancies in the test results related to the equipment used, condition of the rock surface, operator skills, and procedures used in conducting and measuring the wear surface. This paper focuses on the background of the test and examines the influence of various parameters on Cerchar testing including pin hardness, surface condition of specimens, petrographical and geomechanical properties, test speed, applied load, and method of measuring wear surface. Results of Cerchar tests on a set of rock specimens performed at different laboratories are presented to examine repeatability of the tests. In addition, the preliminary results of testing with a new device as a potential alternative testing system for rock abrasivity measurement are discussed.     

Application of the honey-bees mating programming (HBMP) algorithm to sediment concentration modelling

Abstract

The honey-bees mating programming (HBMP) algorithm is introduced as a novel tool for predicting suspended sediment concentration for the Mad River catchment near Arcata, USA. The paper also applies gene expression programming (GEP) as a comparison and shows that these two approaches can the produce transparent, nonlinear relationships between the independent and dependent variables. Some modifications have been made to the HBMP algorithm to improve its capability and efficiency. The results achieved from this method and GEP are compared with two different sediment rating curves based on regression techniques. The findings show that the results from both the HBMP and GEP methods are promising and outperform the results obtained from the sediment rating curves.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor L. See     

Application of the FMEA in insurance of high-risk industries: a case study of Iran's gas refineries

The purpose of this paper is to categorize and analyze various risk factors in Irans gas refineries for insurance purposes. Using the failure modes and effects analysis method as a subset of probability risk assessment technique and gas refineries data for the period March 2011 till March 2012, risk priorities numbers are calculated from the perspectives of both the insured party (gas industries) and the insurer (insurance companies). Our empirical results indicate that various property damage risk factors embodied in gas refineries including fire, explosion, error and omission, and machinery breakdown are insurable risks. Risks of pressurized vessels defects are in safe category and can be tolerated by the industry owner. The policy implication of this paper for Iranian policy makers in the energy sector is that, gas refineries are insurable in the market with reasonable risk premium. Insuring gas refineries will definitely reduce capital losses which can otherwise be enormous for the economy in general and for oil and gas industries in particular.     

Prediction of global stability in room and pillar coal mines

Global stability is a necessary prerequisite for safe retreat mining and one of the crucial and complex problems in room and pillar mining, so its prediction plays an important role in the safety of retreat mining and the reduction of pillar failure risk. In this study, we have tried to develop predictive models for anticipating global stability. For this purpose, two of the most popular techniques, logistic regression analysis and fuzzy logic, were taken into account and a predictive model was constructed based on each. For training and testing of these models, a database including 80 retreat mining case histories from 18 room and pillar coal mines, located in West Virginia State, USA, was used. The models predict global stability based on the major contributing parameters of pillar stability. It was found that both models can be used to predict the global stability, but the comparison of two models, in terms of statistical performance indices, shows that the fuzzy logic model provides better results than the logistic regression. These models can be applied to identify the susceptibility of pillar failure in panels of coal mines, and this may help to reduce the casualties resulting from pillar instability. Finally, the sensitivity analysis was performed on database to determine the most important parameters on global stability. The results revealed that the pillar width is the most important parameter, whereas the depth of cover is the least important one.     

System dynamics approach for simulating water resources of an urban water system with emphasis on sustainability of groundwater

Water resources management is an important driver in social and economic development. Water shortage is one of the most critical issues threatening human welfare, public health, and ecosystems. This issue has turned into a major challenge in many river basins all around the world due to the imbalance in water supply and demand. Use of simulation models can be effective tools in providing water managers with scientifically supported decisions in dealing with complex and uncertain water resource systems. System dynamics approach serves as a management tool and may play an important role in understanding the cause–effect in water resources systems. In the present study, system dynamics approach was applied to simulate management strategies dealing with Tehran metropolitan water resources systems. In the developed model, the trend of water storage in the next 30-year period and the effectiveness of water supply strategies were simulated. The results showed that, despite the growing shortage of the water resources, optimal use of existing resources under appropriate strategies could reduce water deficit within the next 30 years.