Performance evaluation of HWRF model during post monsoon tropical cyclone Nilofar

An accurate tropical cyclone track and intensity forecast is very important for disaster management. Specialized numerical prediction models have been recently used to provide high-resolution temporal and special forecasts. Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) model is one of the emerging numerical models for tropical cyclone forecasting. This study evaluates the performance of HWRF model during the post monsoon tropical cyclone Nilofar on the north Indian Ocean basin. The evaluation uses the best track data provided by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC). Cyclone track, central pressure, and wind speed are covered on this evaluation. Generally, HWRF was able to predict the Nilofar track with track error less than 230 km within the first 66 h of forecast time span. HWRF predicted more intense tropical cyclone. It predicted the lowest central pressure to be 922 hPa while it reached 950 hPa according to IMD and 937 hPa according to JTWC. Wind forecast was better as it predicted maximum wind speed of 122 kt while it reached 110 and 115 kt according to IMD and JTWC, respectively.     

Hydrological responses to rainfall variability and dam construction: a case study of the upper Senegal River basin

The understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamic of river systems is essential for developing sustainable water resource management plan. For the Senegal River, this subject is very complex according to the context of (1) transboundary basin, (2) several contrasted climatic zones (Guinea, South Sudanian, North Sudanian and Sahelian) with high rainfall variability and (3) high human pressures (dam construction and water uses). From 1954 to 2000, 80% (mean value) of the Senegal River flows recorded downstream part of the basin are provided by three majors tributaries (Bafing, Bakoye and Faléme) located in the upstream part. Then, in our study, this upper Senegal River basin was chosen in order to investigate the hydrological responses to rainfall variability and dam construction. Two nonparametric statistical methods, Mann–Kendall and Hubert test, were used to detect the long-term changes in the time series of precipitation and water discharge (1954–2000) at the annual and seasonal scales. The continuous wavelet transform (Morlet Wavelet) was employed to characterize the different mode in the water discharge variability. Flow duration curve and cumulative curve methods were used to assess the impact of dams on the hydrological regime of the Senegal River. Results showed that the Senegal River flows have been changing under the influence of both rainfall variation and dam construction. The long-term evolution of water discharge depend on long-term rainfall variability: The wet periods of the 1950s and 1960s correspond to periods of higher river flows, while the droughts of the 1970s and 1980s led to unprecedented river flows deficits. The new period, since 1994, show a high inter-annual variability of rainfall and discharge without clear trend. At seasonal scale, the results showed also a strong relationship between rainfall and runoff (R ² > 0.8) resulting from alternating wet and dry seasons and rapid hydrological responses according to annual rainfall. Nevertheless, the observed flows during dry seasons highlighted the influence of water storage and restitution of infiltrated waters in soils and surficial formations during wet seasons. In the dry seasons, the water budget of the three upstream tributaries showed a water deficit at the downstream gauging station. This deficit was characterized by water loss to underlying aquifers and highlighted the influence of geological setting on water balance. However, in this context, water restitution during the dry season remained dependent on climatic zone and on the total annual rainfall volume during the previous wet season. The results have highlighted an impact of the Manantali dam previously obscured: The dam has no effect on the regulation of high river flows. That is what explains that since its construction in 1988, flooding of coastal cities, like Saint-louis, by seasonal river floods has not ceased. The flooding risk in coastal cities is not avoided, and the dams caused hyper-salinization of the Senegal lower estuary. The breach created in the coastal barrier of the Langue of Barbary in October 2003 promotes direct export of excess floodwater to the sea and reduces this risk of flooding in the delta area. But, this solution led to considerable loss of potential water resources, and the authors recommend a new water management plan with a global focus. However, this study shows the positives impacts of the two dams. They allow the availability of freshwater in order to support agricultural irrigation in the valley and delta zone, in particular during low flows periods.     

Availability of barley straw application on oil spill clean up

Oil spills are a global concern due to the environmental and economical impact. Various commercial systems have been developed to control these spills, including the use of fibers as sorbents. However, most sorbents end up in landfills or in cineration after single use. These options either produce another source of pollution or increase the oil recovery cost. Plant biomass is renewable resource that can be converted into useful materials and energy. Barley straw, an agricultural waste, was used as sorbent material. The present study examines the absorption capacity of raw barley straw for different petroleum products and water pick up. The investigate revealed that the capacity of fibers to remove crude oil from sea water was related to the surface properties of the fibers, concentration of the oil, size of the fiber, amount of the fibers, as well as the temperature of the crude oil. Cyclic sorption / desorption studies indicated that a simple squeezing operation was enough to remove most of the oil sorbed and that recycling was feasible.     

The factors controlling the expansive nature of the soils and rocks of northern Oman

The factors controlling the expansive nature of the soils and rocks in Northern Oman were studied. Basic geotechnical data from over 40 sites were collected and using empirical relationships, swelling potentials were identified. A laboratory testing program was carried out using undisturbed samples from these swell pressures up to 3.5 MPa, and swell percent values up to 30 were measured. The clay minerals and cations of these samples were determined and Na-smectite was identified as being the main clay-mineral present. Microfabric studies showed generally dense clay matrices. However, these swelling materials exist as impersistent bands with non-swelling soils and rocks which makes prediction of the ground heave problematic.     

Distances of Galaxies from the Apparent Size Distribution of Dark Clouds. II NGC 224, NGC 2841 and NGC 7331

The distances of three Sb galaxies NGC 224, NGC 2841 and NGC 7331 have been determined using the apparent size distribution of dark interstellar clouds in each of them. The distances of NGC 224, NGC 2841, NGC 7331 were found to be 727.7 ± 63 kpc, 8.07 ± 0.16 Mpc and 7.22 ± 0.15 Mpc, respectively.     

Position Angle Variation of the Major Axis of some Galaxies

The variation in the direction of the major axis in three ellipticals, five lenticulars and three spirals has been studied using B or V isophotic maps. It is noticed that there is a turn point in most of the curves especially for spirals and lenticulars. This turn point can be used to define the galaxy nucleus region. There seems to be a correlation between the rotation curve and the position angle curve especially for NGC 2784 and NGC 3640     

Adsorption capacity and mineralogical and physico-chemical characteristics of Shuwaymiyah palygorskite (Oman)

In this paper, Shuwaymiyah palygorskite in the Sultanate of Oman has been characterized mineralogically by X-ray diffraction (XRD) and electron microscopy, chemically by oxide compositions, structural formulae, and cation exchange capacity (CEC), and physically by specific surface area and adsorption isotherms. Batch adsorption studies were performed to evaluate the adsorption performance of methylene blue (MB) basic dye on the local clay mineral. The quantitative XRD analysis indicates that the purity of some selected samples of palygorskite clay is very high (about 70% of the clay minerals are palygorskite and 30% kaolinite). The scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM) images clearly support this conclusion. The adsorption equilibrium revealed that Shuwaymiyah palygorskite clay can uptake up to 51 mg of MB per 1 g mass of clay. MB adsorption is best fitted by Langmuir isotherm, and a pseudo-second-order kinetic model can be efficiently used to predict the kinetic of adsorption of MB by the palygorskite. The results obtained from these laboratory-scale adsorption tests indicate the promising adsorption capability of the Omani palygorskite.     

Middle paleolithic to neolithic cultural history of North Iraq

Six sections of 1–2.7-m depth contain ten sediment samples, each collected from the caves of Shanidar, Hawdian, and Hazar Merd with the nearby river valley sites of Zawi-Chemi, Gawra River, and Barda Balka, respectively, in North Iraq. They have been analyzed palynologically for their climatic significance and vegetational cover during late Quaternary in northeastern Iraq. The main information gathered from these palynological analyses as well as stone tools is ancient open site settlements in Barda Balka of Paleolithic interglacial Acheuleon culture. During the last Ice Age (120,000–10,000 years before present (B.P.)) people refuged to cave settlements. Baradost Mountain as well as the Aqra and Piera Maqroon mountains cavemen of the Middle Paleolithic Period are related to steppe vegetation with cold climate and glacial storms. Those cavemen manufactured stone artifacts of Mousterian to Gravetian culture and have their own religious belief and funeral ceremony especially recorded in the Shanidar cave. They lived by hunting and food collecting from a nearby valley to each cave. During earliest Holocene time (10,000 years B.P.), changing climate to moderately warm climate with Quercus forests and poacean vegetation was recorded, and the cavemen evolved to Neolithic culture and hence moved to settle in plain areas and built the oldest villages of the world, viz., Zawi-Chemi and Jarmo with continuing temporarily living in the caves as well. Their habit changed from food collectors to farmers who cultivated the land with wheat, barley, fruits, olive, legumes, and flowers of brilliant colors, nice odor, and nectariferous as well as domesticated animals for their food resources. Clay tablets of the Sumerians, Babylonians, and Assyrians have documented (Arapha) Kirkuk as one of their cities since 5,500 years B.P. The stone writing records of Assyrian king Sennacherib (705–681 years B.C.) state of making irrigation canals flowing to the temple of Ishtar in Erbil. On the other hand, the similarity of Jarmo village in the present Kurdstan region of Iraq to ancient Tell Hassuna village, south of the present Mosul city (within ancient Nineva city), and the pottery of Jarmo villages to Nineva pottery could give evidence for Jarmo people as followers to the Babylonian–Assyrian cultures within their empire and to prove that people of North Iraq and South Iraq are interrelated cultures through the history within Mesopotamian cultures.     

Absorption gradient in some galaxies,IV

The internal absorption and the absorption gradient along the major and minor axes are studied, following the approach outlined already in Papers I, II, and III. The sample consists of five spirals and one irregular. The surface distribution of dark clouds in these galaxies continues to assume periodicity as found in M31.Those results and the following ones constitute part of an M.Sc. Thesis, submitted to Cairo University by the junior author (S.S.A.).     

Surface distribution of dark clouds in M31 absorption gradient along the minor axis and in theR andθ directions,II

Absorption and absorption gradient is studied along the minor axis of M31 and as a function of the angle measured from the minor axis with the center of the galaxy as origin. The radial distribution of these phenomena is studied also. The counts of dark clouds averaged over all in each case assumes periodical changes. In some cases systematic changes are shown also. The fraction of the volume occupied by these clouds is smaller by an order than that introduced by the standard cloud model.