Climate volatility and poverty vulnerability in Tanzania

Climate volatility could change in the future, with important implications for agricultural productivity. For Tanzania, where food production and prices are sensitive to climate, changes in climate volatility could have severe implications for poverty. This study uses climate model projections, statistical crop models, and general equilibrium economic simulations to determine how the vulnerability of Tanzania's population to impoverishment by climate variability could change between the late 20th Century and the early 21st Century. Under current climate volatility, there is potential for a range of possible poverty outcomes, although in the most extreme of circumstances, poverty could increase by as many as 650,000 people due to an extreme interannual decline in grain yield. However, scenarios of future climate from multiple climate models indicate no consensus on future changes in temperature or rainfall volatility, so that either an increase or decrease is plausible. Scenarios with the largest increases in climate volatility are projected to render Tanzanians increasingly vulnerable to poverty through impacts on staple grains production in agriculture, with as many as 90,000 additional people entering poverty on average. Under the scenario where precipitation volatility decreases, poverty vulnerability decreases, highlighting the possibility of climate changes that oppose the ensemble mean, leading to poverty impacts of opposite sign. The results suggest that evaluating potential changes in volatility and not just the mean climate state may be important for analyzing the poverty implications of climate change.     

Middle paleolithic to neolithic cultural history of North Iraq

Six sections of 1–2.7-m depth contain ten sediment samples, each collected from the caves of Shanidar, Hawdian, and Hazar Merd with the nearby river valley sites of Zawi-Chemi, Gawra River, and Barda Balka, respectively, in North Iraq. They have been analyzed palynologically for their climatic significance and vegetational cover during late Quaternary in northeastern Iraq. The main information gathered from these palynological analyses as well as stone tools is ancient open site settlements in Barda Balka of Paleolithic interglacial Acheuleon culture. During the last Ice Age (120,000–10,000 years before present (B.P.)) people refuged to cave settlements. Baradost Mountain as well as the Aqra and Piera Maqroon mountains cavemen of the Middle Paleolithic Period are related to steppe vegetation with cold climate and glacial storms. Those cavemen manufactured stone artifacts of Mousterian to Gravetian culture and have their own religious belief and funeral ceremony especially recorded in the Shanidar cave. They lived by hunting and food collecting from a nearby valley to each cave. During earliest Holocene time (10,000 years B.P.), changing climate to moderately warm climate with Quercus forests and poacean vegetation was recorded, and the cavemen evolved to Neolithic culture and hence moved to settle in plain areas and built the oldest villages of the world, viz., Zawi-Chemi and Jarmo with continuing temporarily living in the caves as well. Their habit changed from food collectors to farmers who cultivated the land with wheat, barley, fruits, olive, legumes, and flowers of brilliant colors, nice odor, and nectariferous as well as domesticated animals for their food resources. Clay tablets of the Sumerians, Babylonians, and Assyrians have documented (Arapha) Kirkuk as one of their cities since 5,500 years B.P. The stone writing records of Assyrian king Sennacherib (705–681 years B.C.) state of making irrigation canals flowing to the temple of Ishtar in Erbil. On the other hand, the similarity of Jarmo village in the present Kurdstan region of Iraq to ancient Tell Hassuna village, south of the present Mosul city (within ancient Nineva city), and the pottery of Jarmo villages to Nineva pottery could give evidence for Jarmo people as followers to the Babylonian–Assyrian cultures within their empire and to prove that people of North Iraq and South Iraq are interrelated cultures through the history within Mesopotamian cultures.     

Fractal measures of drainage network to investigate surface deformation from remote sensing data: A paradigm from Hindukush (NE-Afghanistan)

This approach represents the relative susceptibility of the topography of the earth to active deformation by means of geometrical distinctiveness of the river networks. This investigation employs the fractal analysis of drainage system extracted from ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM-30m resolution). The objective is to mark active structures and to pinpoint the areas robustly influenced by neotectonics. This approach was examined in the Hindukush, NE-Afghanistan. This region is frequently affected by deadly earthquakes and the modern fault activities and deformation are driven by the collision between the northward-moving Indian subcontinent and Eurasia. This attempt is based on the fact that drainage system is strained to linearize due to neotectonic deformation. Hence, the low fractal dimensions of the Kabul, Panjsher, Laghman, Andarab, Alingar and Kocha Rivers are credited to active tectonics. A comprehensive textural examination is conducted to probe the linearization, heterogeneity and connectivity of the drainage patterns. The aspects for these natural textures are computed by using the fractal dimension (FD), lacunarity (LA) and succolarity (SA) approach. All these methods are naturally interrelated, i.e. objects with similar FD can be further differentiated with LA and/or SA analysis. The maps of FD, LA and SA values are generated by using a sliding window of 50 arc seconds by 50 arc seconds (50" × 50"). Afterwards, the maps are interpreted in terms of regional susceptibility to neotectonics. This method is useful to pinpoint numerous zones where the drainage system is highly controlled by Hindukush active structures. In the North-Northeast of the Kabul block, we recognized active tectonic blocks. The region comprising, Kabul, Panjsher, Andrab, Alingar and Badakhshan is more susceptible to damaging events. This investigation concludes that the fractal analysis of the river networks is a bonus tool to localize areas vulnerable to deadly incidents influencing the Earth’s topography and consequently intimidate human lives.     

Advanced Mathematical Models to Predict the Compaction Properties of Coarse-Grained Soils from Various Physical Properties

An essential task in the process of construction is the determination of compaction properties of soils. Many years of laboratory test experience strengthen our belief in the existence of predictive equations that govern the compaction characteristics of soils. An advanced mathematical model developed in this research in order to uncertain the governing equations. An advanced mathematical model developed in this research in order to uncertain the governing equations. Through a comparative study among a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model, Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) and a Support Vector Machine (SVM) model, the best predicting model was determined. For this purpose, Six hundred and six (606) samples collected and split into a dataset used for training the models and another used for validation of the derived model. 8 neural networks with a varying number of hidden layers and a varying number of nodes in hidden layers were employed. In ELM 1 hidden layer with varying number of units were employed. It was found that the equations derived from the ELM models described the relationship with superiority over multiple regression, ANN and SVM models for Maximum Dry Density and MLR models described the relationship with superiority over ANN, ELM and SVM models for Optimum Moisture Content.     

Water level and atmospheric humidity history of Lake Ichkeul (northern Tunisia) during the last 3000 years

Changes in paleoecology and climate of northern Tunisia during the last 3000 years were reconstructed based on the flood history interpreted from a 172-cm sediment core of Lake Ichkeul (NW Tunisia). Seven wet/dry episodes were identified based on biological (ostracods, foraminifera and mollusks) and biotic indices (H and E index, species richness and abundance). These proxy-based environmental changes were supported by correspondence analyses (CAs) and ecophenotypic responses of the brackish taxon Cyprideis torosa in addition to a grain-size study. Two dry episodes were identified in the lower (EP1) and upper (EP7) parts of the core. These were marked by the dominance of the brackish ostracod C. torosa. High water salinity was indicated by the presence of the brackish ostracod Loxoconcha elliptica, the foraminifer Ammonia sp. and lagoonal mollusks. The occurrence of the freshwater ostracods Ilyocypris sp., Herpetocypris sp., Dawinula stevensoni and Limnocythere inopinata was associated with high species richness and ecophenotypic changes of C. torosa valves indicating lower salinity during three major wet episodes (EP2, EP4, and EP6). The ecological and environmental changes, occurring between 3050 and 50 cal. year BP, are most likely linked to an increase of fluvial inputs which are also recognized in several other Mediterranean lakes. The humid episodes were interrupted by two saline periods (EP3 and EP5) during which freshwater ostracod assemblages declined, diversity indices dropped to the lowest values, and fine-grained sediments became dominant. The top of the core is characterized by the remarkable dominance of L. elliptica coupled with C. torosa, the absence of freshwater ostracods, and the changes in grain-size sediment parameters which are most likely the result of anthropogenic activities. The changes in hydrochemistry and sedimentology were attributed to the deepening of the Bizerte navigation canal, main wadis damming, and Tinja sluice construction which mostly occurred in the XX^th century.     

Tectonostratigraphic evolution of Enjefa’s marginal marine Holocene deposits: highlighting the final stage of Kuwait’s emergence

The Enjefa Beach outcrop comprises marginal marine deposits that are scarcely studied and its facies architecture is largely unknown. With only a few outcrops left in Kuwait, this locality provides an opportunity to better understand the interaction between tectonics and sedimentary processes during the late Holocene, unraveling the final uplift and emergence of Kuwait. Detailed facies analysis revealed that Enjefa outcrop is composed of shoreface and tidal channel facies associations, stacked in a shoaling-upward sequence. One hundred forty-nine paleocurrent measurements were taken at the Enjefa and surrounding areas to understand depositional trends. 2D-structural restoration of seismic data crossing the Ahmadi Ridge was performed along with burial history analysis of a well drilled on the crest of the structure. Facies analysis revealed that the Enjefa outcrop is composed of six depositional facies. These are middle shoreface, upper shoreface, foreshore, lateral accretion, tidal channel, and channel fill/abandonment facies. It is observed that all lateral accretion packages exhibit a unidirectional northern trend. Tectonostratigraphic time-laps simulation revealed that the Ahmadi Ridge final uplift had a direct influence on the tidal channel migration patterns, resulting in a dominant northern migration direction. These results are found to correlate with other Arabian Gulf regions, indicating a regional extent of the late Holocene tectonics.     

Facies architecture and sequence development of the Euphrates formation in western Iraq

The Euphrates formation is widely exposed in western Iraq near Al-Qaim area. It extends eastward parallel to the Euphrates River on both sides, crossing Anah, Hadetha, and Al-Baghdadi vicinities. Based on the benthic foraminiferal assemblages and microfacies features, 12 different microfacies types have been recognized into two Stratigraphic sections that are lime mudstone, wackestone, bioclastic wackestone, miliolids wackestone, alveolinids wackestone, packstone, bioclastic packstone, peloidal packstone, miliolids packstone, peneroplids packstone, rotaliids packstone, grainstone, peloidal grainstone, oolitic grainstone, and miliolids grainstone. Accordingly, the depositional environments were recognized on the basis of microfacies identification and interpretation ranging from restricted marine, shoal, to open marine environments. The exposed Euphrates succession is represented by four fourth-order cycles (A, B, C, and D); they are mostly asymmetrical showing slightly lateral variation in thickness and symmetry. These cycles represent a succession episode of sea level rises and stillstands. The nature of these cycles reflects variation in the relative sea level resulted from eustatic and tectonic subsidence. Cycle A is underlain by SB1 of Sheik Alas formation in Al-Baghdadi section and by Anah formation in Wadi Hjar section. Cycle D is overlain by SB1 of Fatha formation in Al-Baghdadi section and by conformable contact of Nfayil formation in Wadi Hjar section. According to sequence development, the study area shows low rate of subsidence and the major controlling factor that affects eustatic sea level fluctuation.     

Palynofacies, palaeoenvironment, and source rocks evaluation of Ratawi Formation, Southern Iraq

Palynological analysis were done on 12 rock samples for Ratawi Formation from Rumailah well 131 and eight samples for the same formation from Zubair well 47, South Iraq, to extract sedimentary organic matters. Microscopic examination led to diagnose large numbers of spores, pollen, dinoflagellates (proximat, cavate, and chorate), foraminifera, melanogen, hylogen, and amorphogen. Three palynological facies were determined on the bases of percentages of sedimentary organic matter and palynomorphs from two sections. Analysis of these palynofacies clarified Ratawi Formation as deposited from environments ranging from delta and lagoon (suboxic–dysoxic) to shelf facies (anoxic near the shore–suboxic) with the presence of some layers deposited from semideep open marine environment (bathyal). Organic geochemical analysis of total organic carbon and Rock Eval pyrolysis were done to determine quantity, quality, and degree of maturation of the kerogen. Poor to medium proportion of total organic carbon of kerogen types II and III within a catagenesis stage are recorded in these rocks, and hence, poor hydrocarbon generation could be suggested for these strata.     

Adaptive state estimation of groundwater contaminant boundary input flux in a 2-dimensional aquifer

In many circumstances involving heat and mass transfer issues,it is considered impractical to measure the input flux and the resulting state distribution in the domain.Therefore,the need to develop techniques to provide solutions for such problems and estimate the inverse mass flux becomes imperative.Adaptive state estimator(ASE)is increasingly becoming a popular inverse estimation technique which resolves inverse problems by incorporating the semi-Markovian concept into a Bayesian estimation technique,thereby developing an inverse input and state estimator consisting of a bank of parallel adaptively weighted Kalman filters.The ASE is particularly designed for a system that encompasses independent unknowns and/or random switching of input and measurement biases.The present study describes the scheme to estimate the groundwater input contaminant flux and its transient distribution in a conjectural two-dimensional aquifer by means of ASE,which in particular is because of its unique ability to efficiently handle the process noise giving an estimation of keeping the relative error range within 10%in 2-dimensional problems.Numerical simulation results show that the proposed estimator presents decent estimation performance for both smoothly and abruptly varying input flux scenarios.Results also show that ASE enjoys a better estimation performance than its competitor,Recursive Least Square Estimator(RLSE)due to its larger error tolerance in greater process noise regimes.ASE's inherent deficiency of being slower than the RLSE,resulting from the complexity of algorithm,was also noticed.The chosen input scenarios are tested to calculate the effect of input area and both estimators show improved results with an increase in input flux area especially as sensors are moved closer to the assumed input location.