Experimental superensemble forecasts of tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal

This study entails the implementation of an experimental real time forecast capability for tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal basin of North Indian Ocean. This work is being built on the experience gained from a number of recent studies using the concept of superensemble developed at the Florida State University (FSU). Real time hurricane forecasts are one of the major components of superensemble modeling at FSU. The superensemble approach of training followed by real time forecasts produces the best forecasts for tracks and intensity (up to 5 days) of Atlantic hurricanes and Pacific typhoons. Improvements in track forecasts of about 25–35% compared to current operational forecast models has been noted over the Atlantic Ocean basin. The intensity forecasts for hurricanes are only marginally better than the best models. In this paper, we address tropical cyclone forecasts over the Bay of Bengal for the years 1996–2000. The main result from this study is that the position and intensity errors for tropical cyclone forecasts over the Bay of Bengal from the multimodel superensemble are generally less than those of all of the participating models during 1- to 3-day forecasts. Some of the major tropical cyclones, such as the November 1996 Andhra Pradesh cyclone and October 1999 Orissa super cyclone were well handled by this superensemble approach. A conclusion from this study is that the proposed approach may be a viable way to construct improved forecasts of Bay of Bengal tropical cyclone positions and intensity.     

Urban Seismic Risk Evaluation: A Holistic Approach

Risk has been defined, for management purposes, as the potential economic, social and environmental consequences of hazardous events that may occur in a specified period of time. However, in the past, the concept of risk has been defined in a fragmentary way in many cases, according to each scientific discipline involved in its appraisal. From the perspective of this article, risk requires a multidisciplinary evaluation that takes into account not only the expected physical damage, the number and type of casualties or economic losses, but also the conditions related to social fragility and lack of resilience conditions, which favour the second order effects (indirect effects) when a hazard event strikes an urban centre. The proposed general method of urban risk evaluation is multi hazard and holistic, that is, an integrated and comprehensive approach to guide decision-making. The evaluation of the potential physical damage (hard approach) as the result of the convolution of hazard and physical vulnerability of buildings and infrastructure is the first step of this method. Subsequently, a set of social context conditions that aggravate the physical effects are also considered (soft approach). In the method here proposed, the holistic risk evaluation is based on urban risk indicators. According to this procedure, a physical risk index is obtained, for each unit of analysis, from existing loss scenarios, whereas the total risk index is obtained by factoring the former index by an impact factor or aggravating coefficient, based on variables associated with the socio-economic conditions of each unit of analysis. Finally, the proposed method is applied in its single hazard form to the holistic seismic risk evaluation for the cities of Bogota (Colombia) and Barcelona (Spain).     

Flow and transport predictions during multi-borehole tests in fractured chalk using discrete fracture network models

Multi-borehole pumping and tracer tests on the 10 to 100-m scale were conducted in a fractured chalk aquitard in the Negev Desert, Israel. Outcrop and core fracture surveys, as well as slug tests in packed-off intervals, were carried out at this site to obtain the parameters needed for construction of a stochastic discrete fracture network (DFN). Calibration of stochastic DFNs directly to the multiple borehole test data was inadequate. Instead, two equivalent deterministic DFN flow models were used: the vertical-fractures (VF) model, consisting of only vertical fractures, and the fractures’ intersections (INT) model, consisting of vertical and horizontal fractures with enhanced transmissivity at their intersections. Both models were calibrated against the multi-borehole response of one pumping test and their predictions were tested against three other independent pumping tests. The average accuracies of all transient drawdown predictions of the VF and INT models were 65 and 66%, respectively. In contrast to this equality in average drawdown predictions of both models, the INT model predicted better important breakthrough curve features (e.g., first and peak arrival times), than the VF model. This result is in line with previously assumed channeled flow, derived from analytical analysis of these pumping and tracer tests. Ronit Nativ, deceased, may her memory be blessed.     

The junction of Fensch and Moselle rivers,France; mineralogy and composition of river materials

The Moselle river flows in the north-east of France, from Vosges Mountains to neighboring countries Luxembourg and Germany. One of its tributaries, the Fensch river, drains a highly industrialized watershed, strongly impacted by mining, smelting and surfacing activities. The objective of this work, part of a general research program on Moselle watershed (Zone Atelier Moselle) was to assess the impact of the polluted Fensch river on the global quality of the Moselle river. For that purpose, water, sediments and suspended particulate matter were sampled in both rivers, upstream and downstream the junction. Four main sampling campaigns were carried out, in winter during a flood event and in spring at low water level. On a first step, mineralogical analyses (XRD and FTIR) and chemical analyses (ICP-MS, ICP-AES), were performed on sediments, suspended particulate matters and filtered waters. Major and trace elements concentrations were obtained on two different granulometric fractions (0–2 mm and 0–50 μm) revealing the enrichment in heavy metals of fine particles. From one collecting campaign to another, seasonal variations could be evidenced on suspended matter composition even though major minerals (calcite, quartz and kaolinite) were always present. Furthermore, spatial variations were evidenced for Fensch and Moselle downstream sediments. Thus, very fine-grained sediments, poorly crystallized, displaying at the same time higher metal concentrations and higher organic matter content than in Fensch river material, were collected downstream, in a low hydrodynamic conditions zone, assumed as a preferential sedimentary zone or even as a placer. Strong correlations could be revealed between iron content and contaminant concentrations, confirming the origin of polluted material.     

Ilmenite composition in the Tellnes Fe–Ti deposit,SW Norway: fractional crystallization,postcumulus evolution and ilmenite–zircon relation

Major and trace element XRF and in situ LA-ICP-MS analyses of ilmenite in the Tellnes ilmenite deposit, Rogaland Anorthosite Province, SW Norway, constrains a two stage fractional crystallization model of a ferrodioritic Fe-Ti-P rich melt. Stage 1 is characterized by ilmenite-plagioclase cumulates, partly stored in the lower part of the ore body (Lower Central Zone, LCZ), and stage 2 by ilmenite-plagioclase-orthopyroxene-olivine cumulates (Upper Central Zone, UCZ). The concentration of V and Cr in ilmenite, corrected for the trapped liquid effect, (1) defines the cotectic proportion of ilmenite to be 17.5 wt% during stage 1, and (2) implies an increase of D _V^Ilm during stage 2, most likely related to a shift in fO₂. The proportion of 17.5 wt% is lower than the modal proportion of ilmenite (ca. 50 wt%) in the ore body, implying accumulation of ilmenite and flotation of plagioclase. The fraction of residual liquid left after crystallization of Tellnes cumulates is estimated at 0.6 and the flotation of plagioclase at 26 wt% of the initial melt mass. The increasing content of intercumulus magnetite with stratigraphic height, from 0 to ca. 3 wt%, results from differentiation of the trapped liquid towards magnetite saturation. The MgO content of ilmenite (1.4–4.4 wt%) is much lower than the expected cumulus composition. It shows extensive postcumulus re-equilibration with trapped liquid and ferromagnesian silicates, correlated with distance to the host anorthosite. The Zr content of ilmenite, provided by in situ analyses, is low (<114 ppm) and uncorrelated with stratigraphy or Cr content. The data demonstrate that zircon coronas observed around ilmenite formed by subsolidus exsolution of ZrO₂ from ilmenite. The U-Pb zircon age of 920 ± 3 Ma probably records this exsolution process. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Vertical migration of municipal wastewater in deep injection well systems,South Florida,USA

Deep well injection is widely used in South Florida, USA for wastewater disposal largely because of the presence of an injection zone (“boulder zone” of Floridan Aquifer System) that is capable of accepting very large quantities of fluids, in some wells over 75,000 m³/day. The greatest potential risk to public health associated with deep injection wells in South Florida is vertical migration of wastewater, containing pathogenic microorganisms and pollutants, into brackish-water aquifer zones that are being used for alternative water-supply projects such as aquifer storage and recovery. Upwards migration of municipal wastewater has occurred in a minority of South Florida injection systems. The results of solute-transport modeling using the SEAWAT program indicate that the measured vertical hydraulic conductivities of the rock matrix would allow for only minimal vertical migration. Fracturing at some sites increased the equivalent average vertical hydraulic conductivity of confining zone strata by approximately four orders of magnitude and allowed for vertical migration rates of up 80 m/year. Even where vertical migration was rapid, the documented transit times are likely long enough for the inactivation of pathogenic microorganisms.     

Astronomical time scale for the Middle Oxfordian to Late Kimmeridgian in the Swiss and French Jura Mountains

Detailed investigation of facies and sedimentary structures reveals that, during the Middle Oxfordian to Late Kimmeridgian, the shallow carbonate platform of the Swiss and French Jura Mountains recorded high-frequency sea-level fluctuations quite faithfully. The cyclostratigraphic analysis within the established biostratigraphic and sequence-chronostratigraphic framework implies that the resulting hierarchically stacked depositional sequences formed in tune with the orbital cycles of precession (20 kyr) and eccentricity (100 and 400 kyr). The astronomical time scale presented here is based on the correlation of 19 platform sections and 4 hemipelagic sections from south-eastern France where good biostratigraphic control is available. The cyclostratigraphic interpretation suggests that the interval between sequence boundaries Ox4 and Kim1 (early Middle Oxfordian to earliest Kimmeridgian) lasted 3.2 myr and that the Kimmeridgian sensu gallico has a duration of 3.2 to 3.3 myr. The astronomical time scale proposed here is compared to time scales established by other authors in other regions and the discrepancies are discussed. Despite these discrepancies, there is a potential to estimate the durations of ammonite zones and depositional sequences more precisely and to better evaluate the rates of sedimentary, ecological and diagenetic processes. Editorial handling: Hanspeter Funk, Helmut Weissert, Stefan Bucher     

Miocene shallow-water limestones from São Nicolau (Cabo Verde): Caribbean-type benthic fauna and time constraints for volcanism

Shallow-water limestones of presumed Late Cretaceous and Eocene age, interbedded with basaltic lavas, were described by earlier authors from São Nicolau in the northwestern part of the Cabo Verde archipelago. If confirmed, these ages would imply late Mesozoic shallow-marine and subaerial volcanic activity in the Cabo Verde archipelago, and document a geological history very different from that known so far from other Cabo Verde Islands, from which no subaerial volcanic activity before the mid-Cenozoic is known. Our re-investigation of the foraminiferal fauna indicates a Late Miocene age for the presumed Late Cretaceous and Eocene limestones. The hypothesis of a long-lived hot spot, active by the Early Cretaceous, and of a major island-building stage in the Cabo Verde Islands during this period, is therefore not supported by the present bio- or chronostratigraphic data.