A three-dimensional approach to fault seal analysis: fault-block juxtaposition & argillaceous smear modelling

Three‐dimensional (3D) numerical modelling of fault displacement enables the building of geological models to represent the complex 3D geometry and geological properties of faulted sedimentary basins. Using these models, cross‐fault juxtaposition relationships are predicted in 3D space and through time, based on the geometries of strata that are cut by faults. Forward modelling of fault development allows a 3D prediction of fault‐zone argillaceous smear using a 3D application of the Shale Gouge Ratio. Numerical models of the Artemis Field, Southern North Sea, UK and the Moab Fault, Utah, USA are used to demonstrate the developed techniques and compare them to traditional one‐ and two‐dimensional solutions. These examples demonstrate that a 3D analysis leads to significant improvements in the prediction of fault seal, the analysis of the interaction of the sealing properties of multiple faults, and the interpretation of fault seal within the context of sedimentary basin geometry.     

Detecting trends in seagrass abundance using aerial photograph interpretation: Problems arising with the evolution of mapping methods

In the late 1970s and early 1980s an inventory of seagrass distribution in southeast Australia was made from multiscale aerial photographs using a simple analog mapping method, referred to here as theCamera lucida technique. Four priority estuaries were remapped in 2003, also using multi-scale aerial photographs, but using a geographic information system (GIS)-based analog mapping technique. We quantified the degree of error that arose when estimates of seagrass distribution were compared for the two techniques be ressessing. with GIS, the same aerial photographs used earlier for four estuaries: Port Hacking, Bermagui River, Merimbula Lake, and St Georges Basin.Camera lucida produced a larger estimate of total seagrass area than GIS in all four locations: 8% of total seagrass area or 12.9 ha in Port Hacking, 15% or 5 ha in Bermagui River, 20% or 38.0 ha in Merimbula Lake, and 243% or 502.2 ha in St Georges Basin. The consistent and moderate discrepancy in Port Hacking, Bermagui River, and Merimbula Lake was attributed mainly to differences betweenCamera lucida and GIS, such as the tendency ofCamera lucida to overestimate seagrass area by amalgamating disjunct seagrass patches into continuous meadows. The large discrepancy at St Georges Basin was attributed to interoperator error; i.e., the operators who mapped photographs taken in 1979 had widely differing interpretations of the aerial photographs. A 20-yr trend was calculated for each estuary using either theCamera lucida or revised GIS value as the start point. Perceived management status of the seagrass depended greatly on the initial data used. In St Georges Basin, a catastrophic decline (65%, 553.9 ha) occurred based on theCamera lucida-GIS comparison but only a small decline (14.7%, 51.8 ha) when all photos were GIS assessed, In view of the technical developments in habitat mapping, evaluation of change in seagrass abundance using remote sensing needs an assessment of intra-operator error, inter-operator error, and systemic error before maps produced by superseded technology are considered useful baselines.     

The spectacular fossils of the ‘water margin’: the Cambrian biota of Chengjiang,Yunnan, China

Shi Nai'an's fourteenth century Chinese epic ‘Water Margin’ tells of the release of 36 heavenly spirits and 72 baleful stars from their captivity beneath a tablet of stone at Mount Longhu in Jiangxi Province. They are reincarnated as the 108 heroes of the Liangshan marsh in Shandong Province, who rise against an unjust world. The virtuous exploits of the ‘108’ were brought to life through the cathode‐ray screens of 1970s television sets, as the TV series The Water Margin introduced heroes like Lin Chong battling his evil nemesis Gao Qiu. Far to the west of Jiangxi Province and several hundred years after the Water Margin during the summer of 1984, a young scientist from Nanjing was working amongst the hills and lakes of southern Yunnan Province. He too overturned a stone slab, releasing from their half‐billion year captivity a cornucopia of new Chinese legends. His name was Xianguang Hou and he had made one of the most momentous fossil discoveries in history, uncovering the exceptionally preserved marine fossils of the Chengjiang biota from the ancient water margin of Cambrian seas.     

Understory and small trees contribute importantly to stemflow of a lower montane cloud forest

Stemflow (Sf) measurements in tropical rain and montane forests dominated by large trees rarely include the understory and small trees. In this study, contributions of lower (1‐ to 2‐m height) and upper (>2‐m height and <5‐cm diameter at breast height [DBH]) woody understory, small trees (5 < DBH < 10 cm), and canopy trees (>10‐cm DBH) to Sf per unit ground area (Sf_a) of a Mexican lower montane cloud forest were quantified for 32 days with rainfall (P) during the 2014 wet season. Rainfall, stemflow yield (Sf_y), vegetation height, density, and basal area were measured. Subsequently, stemflow funneling ratios (SFRs) were calculated, and three common methods to scale up Sf_y from individual trees to the stand level (tree‐Sf_y correlation, P‐Sf_y correlation, and mean‐Sf_y extrapolation) were used to calculate Sf_a. Understory woody plants, small trees, and upper canopy trees represented 96%, 2%, and 2%, respectively, of the total density. Upper canopy trees had the lowest SFRs (1.6 ± 0.5 Standard Error (SE) on average), although the lower understory had the highest (36.1 ± 6.4). Small trees and upper understory presented similar SFRs (22.9 ± 5.4 and 20.2 ± 3.9, respectively). Different Sf scaling methods generally yielded similar results. Overall Sf_a during the study period was 22.7 mm (4.5% of rainfall), to which the understory contributed 70.1% (15.9 mm), small trees 10.6% (2.4 mm), and upper canopy trees 19.3% (4.4 mm). Our results strongly suggest that for humid tropical forests with dense understory of woody plants and small trees, Sf of these groups should be measured to avoid an underestimation of overall Sf at the stand level.     

Response of low‐angle dunes to variable flow

Current understanding of bedform dynamics is largely based on field and laboratory observations of bedforms in steady flow environments. There are relatively few investigations of bedforms in flows dominated by unsteadiness associated with rapidly changing flows or tides. As a consequence, the ability to predict bedform response to variable flow is rudimentary. Using high‐resolution multibeam bathymetric data, this study explores the dynamics of a dune field developed by tidally modulated, fluvially dominated flow in the Fraser River Estuary, British Columbia, Canada. The dunes were dominantly low lee angle features characteristic of large, deep river channels. Data were collected over a field ca 1·0 km long and 0·5 km wide through a complete diurnal tidal cycle during the rising limb of the hydrograph immediately prior to peak freshet, yielding the most comprehensive characterization of low‐angle dunes ever reported. The data show that bedform height and lee angle slope respond to variable flow by declining as the tide ebbs, then increasing as the tide rises and the flow velocities decrease. Bedform lengths do not appear to respond to the changes in velocity caused by the tides. Changes in the bedform height and lee angle have a counterclockwise hysteresis with mean flow velocity, indicating that changes in the bedform geometry lag changes in the flow. The data reveal that lee angle slope responds directly to suspended sediment concentration, supporting previous speculation that low‐angle dune morphology is maintained by erosion of the dune stoss and crest at high flow, and deposition of that material in the dune trough.     

Iron isotopic systematics of UHP eclogites respond to oxidizing fluid during exhumation

The iron stable isotope compositions (δ⁵⁶Fe) and iron valence states of ultrahigh‐pressure eclogites from Bixiling in the Dabie orogen belt, China, were measured to trace the changes of geochemical conditions during vertical transportation of earth materials, for example, oxygen fugacity. The bulk Fe³⁺/ΣFe ratios of retrograde eclogites, determined by Mössbauer spectroscopy, are consistently higher than those of fresh eclogites, suggesting oxidation during retrograde metamorphism and fluid infiltration. The studied eclogites (five samples) display limited mid‐ocean ridge basalts (MORB)‐like (~0.10‰) δ⁵⁶Fe values, which are indistinguishable from their protoliths, that is, gabbro cumulates formed through differentiation of mantle‐derived basaltic magma. This suggests that Fe isotope fractionation during continental subduction is limited. Garnet separates display limited δ⁵⁶Fe variation ranging from ?0.08 ± 0.07 ‰ to 0.02 ± 0.07‰, whereas coexisting omphacite displays a large variation of δ⁵⁶Fe values from 0.15 ± 0.07‰ to 0.47 ± 0.07‰. Omphacite also has highly variable Fe³⁺/ΣFe ratios from 0.367 ± 0.025 to 0.598 ± 0.024, indicating modification after peak metamorphism. Omphacite from retrograde eclogites has elevated Fe³⁺/ΣFe ratios (0.54–0.60) compared to that from fresh eclogites (~0.37), whereas garnet displays a narrow range of ferric iron content with Fe³⁺/ΣFe ratios from 0.039 ± 0.013 to 0.065 ± 0.022. The homogenous δ⁵⁶Fe values and Fe³⁺/ΣFe ratios of garnet suggest that it survived the retrograde metamorphism and preserved its Fe‐isotopic features and ferric contents of peak metamorphism. Because of similar diffusion rates of Fe and Mg in garnet and omphacite, and constant Δ²⁶Mg_{omphacite‐garnet} values (1.14 ± 0.04‰), equilibrium iron isotope fractionation between garnet and omphacite was probably achieved during peak metamorphism. Elevated Fe³⁺/ΣFe ratios of omphacite from retrograde eclogites and variant Δ⁵⁶Fe_{omphacite‐garnet} values of the studied eclogites (0.13 ± 0.10‰ to 0.48 ± 0.10‰) indicate that oxidized geofluid infiltration resulted in the elevation of δ⁵⁶Fe values of omphacite during retrograde metamorphism.     

The need for national deep decarbonization pathways for effective climate policy

Constraining global average temperatures to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels will probably require global energy system emissions to be halved by 2050 and complete decarbonization by 2100. In the nationally orientated climate policy framework codified under the Paris Agreement, each nation must decide the scale and method of their emissions reduction contribution while remaining consistent with the global carbon budget. This policy process will require engagement amongst a wide range of stakeholders who have very different visions for the physical implementation of deep decarbonization. The Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP) has developed a methodology, building on the energy, climate and economics literature, to structure these debates based on the following principles: country-scale analysis to capture specific physical, economic and political circumstances to maximize policy relevance, a long-term perspective to harmonize short-term decisions with the long-term objective and detailed sectoral analysis with transparent representation of emissions drivers through a common accounting framework or ‘dashboard’. These principles are operationalized in the creation of deep decarbonization pathways (DDPs), which involve technically detailed, sector-by-sector maps of each country’s decarbonization transition, backcasting feasible pathways from 2050 end points. This article shows how the sixteen DDPP country teams, covering 74% of global energy system emissions, used this method to collectively restrain emissions to a level consistent with the 2 °C target while maintaining development aspirations and reflecting national circumstances, mainly through efficiency, decarbonization of energy carriers (e.g. electricity, hydrogen, biofuels and synthetic gas) and switching to these carriers. The cross-cutting analysis of country scenarios reveals important enabling conditions for the transformation, pertaining to technology research and development, investment, trade and global and national policies.

Policy relevance

In the nation-focused global climate policy framework codified in the Paris Agreement, the purpose of the DDPP and DDPs is to provide a common method by which global and national governments, business, civil society and researchers in each country can communicate, compare and debate differing concrete visions for deep decarbonization in order to underpin the necessary societal and political consensus to design and implement short-term policy packages that are consistent with long-term global decarbonization.     

Sediment Suspension and Deposition Across Restored Oyster Reefs of Varying Orientation to Flow: Implications for Restoration

The eastern oyster, Crassostrea virginica, is a prominent ecosystem engineer, whose reefs exhibit strikingly consistent morphologies at multiple spatial scales throughout its North American range. These distinct morphologies are thought to form by interactions of nascent reef structures with hydrodynamics. We carried out two field studies to determine if historical reef configurations applied in a restoration context would improve reef persistence and restoration outcomes. We collected seabed and water column observations across constructed reefs of three orientations representative of those found historically throughout the oyster’s range: parallel or perpendicular to tidal currents or circular. Areas adjacent to reefs were sites of fine sediment trapping, with lower flow velocities, evidence of particle settling, and more fine sediments on the seabed relative to off-reef reference sites. The water column above the reef crest exhibited higher acoustic backscatter, higher flow velocities, and larger particles in suspension, consistent with local erosion of flocculated fine sediment from the reef crest. Perpendicular reefs produced conditions that were more conducive to reef persistence and improved oyster performance, including high flow velocities and enhanced resuspension of sediments from the reef, compared to parallel or circular reefs. Particle trapping in areas between reefs has the potential to inhibit reef growth between existing reef structures, providing support for hypotheses of landscape-scale reef pattern formation. Oyster reef restoration efforts can benefit from this improved understanding of biophysical interactions arising from reef orientation that contribute to sediment dynamics on constructed oyster reefs.     

Evaluating the impact of visualization of wildfire hazard upon decision-making under uncertainty

The paper investigates whether the methods chosen for representing uncertain geographic information aid or impair decision-making in the context of wildfire hazard. Through a series of three human subject experiments, utilizing 180 subjects and employing increasingly difficult tasks, this research evaluates the effect of five different visualizations and a text-based representation on decision-making under uncertainty. Our quantitative experiments focus specifically on the task of decision-making under uncertainty, rather than the task of reading levels of uncertainty from the map. To guard against the potential for generosity and risk seeking in decision-making under uncertainty, the experimental design uses performance-based incentives. The experiments showed that the choice of representation makes little difference to performance in cases where subjects are allowed the time and focus to consider their decisions. However, with the increasing difficulty of time pressure, subjects performed best using a spectral color hue-based representation, rather than more carefully designed cartographic representations. Text-based and simplified boundary encodings were among the worst performers. The results have implications for the performance of decision-making under uncertainty using static maps, especially in the stressful environments surrounding an emergency.