Sensitivity to climate change of land use and management patterns optimized for efficient mitigation of nutrient pollution

Beginning in the mid-1990s, re-eutrophication has reemerged as severe problems in Lake Erie. Controlling non-point source (NPS) nutrient pollution from cropland, especially dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP), is the key to restore water quality in Lake Erie. To address NPS pollution, previous studies have analyzed the effectiveness of alternative spatially optimal land use and management strategies (represented as agricultural conservation practices (CPs)). However, few studies considered both strategies and have analyzed and compared their sensitivity to expected changes in temperature and precipitation due to climate change and increased greenhouse gas concentrations. In this study, we evaluated impacts of climatic change on the economic efficiency of these strategies for DRP abatement, using an integrated modeling approach that includes a watershed model, an economic valuation component, and a spatial optimization model. A series of climate projections representing relatively high greenhouse gas emission scenarios was developed for the western Lake Erie basin to drive the watershed model. We found that performance of solutions optimized for current climate was degraded significantly under projected future climate conditions. In terms of robustness of individual strategies, CPs alone were more robust to climate change than land use change alone or together with CPs, but relying on CPs alone fails to achieve a high (>?71%) DRP reduction target. A combination of CPs and land use changes was required to achieve policy goals for DRP reductions (targeted at ~?78%). Our results point to the need for future spatial optimization studies and planning to consider adaptive capacity of conservation actions under a changing climate.     

Linking hurricane landfalls,precipitation variability,fires, and vegetation response over the past millennium from analysis of coastal lagoon sediments,southwestern Dominican Republic

We reconstructed the late-Holocene environmental history of a coastal lagoon in semi-arid southwestern Hispaniola through multiproxy analysis of a sediment core, including pollen, macroscopic and microscopic charcoal, loss-on-ignition analysis (LOI), stable isotope analysis, bulk density, and magnetic susceptibility. Four chronological accelerator mass spectrometry radiocarbon dates indicated that our core represents the past ~1000 years. We interpreted ten hurricanes events over the past millennium from high-resolution geological proxies, LOI data, and ostracod valve stable oxygen isotope data, thus producing the first long record of hurricanes from the Dominican Republic. Geological proxies indicated a high-energy event abruptly changed the ecosystem state of our core site from a shallow mangrove wetland to a lacustrine environment ~330 cal yr BP. We interpret the driver of that event to be the landfall of a strong hurricane that initiated lowland flooding, mangrove mortality, and subsequent peat collapse at the core site. Pollen data indicated that during the relatively moist Medieval Warm Period (MWP), hurricanes led to temporary declines in tropical dry forest taxa that recovered within several decades following disturbance. By comparison, during the relatively arid Little Ice Age (LIA), when precipitation was highly variable in the circum-Caribbean, closely spaced hurricanes seemed to delay forest recovery. Sedimentary charcoal concentrations revealed increased fire activity after inferred hurricane landfalls in the MWP, providing evidence of a link between enhanced biomass and fuel availability during moister periods and burning in recently disturbed dry forests and scrub of our semi-arid study region. Our interpretations of increased aridity and precipitation variability, indicated by alternating thin layers of microbial mats with evaporite layers, along with more frequent hurricanes from ~330 cal yr BP to present, generally agree with other sedimentary records from the circum-Caribbean, and may be linked to a more southerly position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone during the LIA.     

Groundwater Plans in the United States: Regulatory Frameworks and Management Goals

Groundwater management plans are an important tool for preventing and addressing degradation and depletion of the resource. Through plans, water users and regulators set forth goals and identify strategies to address the needs of multiple resource users while considering physical constraints of the groundwater resource. This research examines the status of groundwater management plans in the United States, identifying in which states groundwater management plans are produced and the circumstances that lead to the inclusion of quantifiable goals in those plans. Findings indicate that legal and regulatory requirements for quantifiable goals can lead to the development of more comprehensive groundwater management plans, and, that such goals can be set even when uncertainties exist.     

An investigation of recharge to the northern Adelaide plains aquifers using environmental tritium

Recharge to the Quaternary aquifers beneath the Northern Adelaide Plains was estimated to be 3.9 x 10⁶ m³/year using the environmental tritium concentration of water samples taken from suitably sited boreholes. Recharge to the Tertiary aquifers was estimated to be 0.4 x 10⁶m³/year, by the same isotopic techniques. These results may be compared with a total recharge by leakage through the beds of streams which cross the plain, estimated by the South Australian Department of Mines to be 6.4 x 10⁶ m³/year.     

The scale of segregation: ancestral groups in Sydney, 2011

Most studies of urban residential segregation analyse it at a single-scale only, usually the smallest for which relevant census data are available. Following a recent argument that such segregation is multiscalar, this paper reports on multilevel modelling of the segregation of 42 ancestral groups in Sydney, Australia, looking at its intensity at four separate scales in which segregation at each scale is presented nett of its intensity at all higher-level scales. Most groups are more segregated at the macro- and micro-scales than at two intermediate meso-scales, with variations across them reflecting their size, recency of arrival in Australia and cultural differences from the host society. The findings are used as the basis for developing a multiscale appreciation of residential patterning.     

Incorporating Groundwater-Surface Water Interaction into River Management Models

Accurate representation of groundwater-surface water interactions is critical to modeling low river flows in the semi-arid southwestern United States. Although a number of groundwater-surface water models exist, they are seldom integrated with river operation/management models. A link between the object-oriented river and reservoir operations model, RiverWare, and the groundwater model, MODFLOW, was developed to incorporate groundwater-surface water interaction processes, such as river seepage/gains, riparian evapotranspiration, and irrigation return flows, into a rule-based water allocations model. An explicit approach is used in which the two models run in tandem, exchanging data once in each computational time step. Because the MODFLOW grid is typically at a finer resolution than RiverWare objects, the linked model employs spatial interpolation and summation for compatible communication of exchanged variables. The performance of the linked model is illustrated through two applications in the Middle Rio Grande Basin in New Mexico where overappropriation impacts endangered species habitats. In one application, the linked model results are compared with historical data; the other illustrates use of the linked model for determining management strategies needed to attain an in-stream flow target. The flows predicted by the linked model at gauge locations are reasonably accurate except during a few very low flow periods when discrepancies may be attributable to stream gaging uncertainties or inaccurate documentation of diversions. The linked model accounted for complex diversions, releases, groundwater pumpage, irrigation return flows, and seepage between the groundwater system and canals/drains to achieve a schedule of releases that satisfied the in-stream target flow.     

Late‐summer thermal regime of a small proglacial lake

This study was motivated by an interest in understanding the potential effects of climate change and glacier retreat on late summer water temperatures in alpine areas. Fieldwork was carried out between July and September 2007 at Place Lake, located below Place Glacier in the southern Coast Mountains of British Columbia. Place Lake has an area of 72 000 m², a single inlet and outlet channel, and an approximate residence time of 4 days. Warming between the inlet and outlet of the lake ranged up to 3 °C and averaged 1.8 °C, which exceeds the amount of warming that occurred over the 1 km reach of Place Creek between the lake outlet and tree line. Over a 23‐day period, net radiation totalled about 210 MJ·m^–2, with sensible heat flux adding another 56 MJ m^‐2. The latent heat flux consumed about 8% of the surface heat input. The dominant heat sink was the net horizontal advection associated with lake inflow and outflow. Early in the study period, temperatures between the surface and 6‐m depth were dominantly at or above 4 °C and were generally neutral to thermally stable, whereas temperatures decreased with depth below 6 m and exhibited irregular sub‐diurnal variations. The maximum outflow temperature of almost 7 °C occurred in this period. We hypothesize that turbidity currents associated with cold, sediment‐laden glacier discharge formed an underflow and influenced temperatures in the deeper portion of the lake but did not mix with the upper layers. Later in the study period, the lake was dominantly well mixed with some near‐surface stability associated with nocturnal cooling. Further research is required to examine the combined effects of sediment concentrations and thermal processes on mixing in small proglacial lakes to make projections of the consequences of glacier retreat on alpine lake and stream temperatures. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An application of geological survey and ceramic petrology to provenance studies of Guangala phase Ceramics of ancient Ecuador

The foundation of provenance studies of ceramics is the regional geology. Unfortunately, archaeologists often depend on regional geologic maps for comparative information. In many areas the scale of maps is too small to determine the lithological variation, which is necessary information for a robust provenance study of ceramic materials. Accurate determination requires geologic field mapping and analysis of the lithologies and clay-rich sediments present. In this provenance study of prehistoric ceramics from southwest Ecuador, we have established the lithological variation of both rocks and clay-rich sediments through geological survey. Petrographic analysis of geological samples and ancient ceramic materials determined the variation in both populations and established cases of significant correlation as well as noncorrelation between objects and local materials. Ceramic production at the Ecuadorian sites was complex and involved local production of domestic wares as well as importation of tempering materials and vessels and adoption of foreign decorative motifs. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.