Ca-Mg inter-diffusion in synthetic polycrystalline dolomite-calcite aggregate at elevated temperatures and pressure

This study measures the reaction rate of dolomite and aragonite (calcite) into Mg-calcite at 800, 850, and 900°C and 1.6 GPa. The dry synthetic dolomite-aragonite aggregate transformed very rapidly into dolomite-calcite polycrystalline aggregate while Mg-calcites formed at a relatively slow rate, becoming progressively richer in Mg with run time. We modeled the reaction progress semi-empirically by the first-order rate law. The temperature dependence of the overall transport rate of MgCO₃ into calcite can be described by the kinetic parameters (E?=?231.7 kJ/mol and A _o ?=?22.69 h^?1). Extrapolation using the Arrhenius equation to the conditions during exhumation of UHPM rocks indicates that the reaction of dolomite with aragonite into Mg-saturated calcite can be completed as the P-T path enters the Mg-calcite stability field in a geologically short time period (<1 Ky). On the other hand, the extrapolation of the rate to prograde metamorphic conditions reveals that the Mg-calcite formed from dolomitic marble in the absence of metamorphic fluid may not reach Mg-saturation until temperatures corresponding to high-grade metamorphism (e.g., >340°C and >10 My). SEM-EDS analysis of individual calcite grains shows compositional gradients of Mg in the calcite grains. The Mg-Ca inter-diffusion coefficient at 850°C is around 1.68?×?10^?14 m²/sec if diffusion is the major control of the reaction. The calculated closure temperatures for Ca-Mg inter-diffusion as a function of cooling rate and grain size reveal that Ca/Mg resetting in calcite in a dry polycrystalline carbonate aggregate (with grain size around 1 mm) may not occur at temperatures below 480°C at a geological cooling rate around 10°C/My, unless other processes, such as short-circuit interdiffusion along grain boundaries and dislocations, are involved.     

Restrictions on Deep Flow Across the Shelf-break and the Role of Submarine Canyons in Facilitating such Flow

The shelf-break acts as a separator between the coastal ocean and the open ocean. Circulation (particularly deep near-bottom flow) is restricted from crossing the bathymetry. Eddies become elongated in the region of the shelf-break restricting exchange. An estimate of the horizontal eddy diffusivity over the shelf-break of less than 10m²s^-1 is found from a numerical model. Various mechanisms are responsible for the weak cross-isobath flow that does occur. One is the increase of the Rossby number over small-scale topography such as submarine canyons. Along-shore flow (in the direction opposite to Kelvin wave propagation) generates upwelling through submarine canyons. A review of upwelling through submarine canyons is given. The deep cross-shelf flow generated by the canyons is shown to be as significant as the wind-driven upwelling in some regions. Examples for the reduction of flow across the shelf-break and for upwelling through canyons are taken from the West Coast of Vancouver Island.     

The End-to-End Attribution Problem: From Emissions to Impacts

When a damaging extreme meteorological event occurs, the question often arises as to whether that event was caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The question is more than academic, since people affected by the event will be interested in recurring damages if they find that someone is at fault. However, since this extreme event could have occurred by chance in an unperturbed climate, we are currently unable to properly respond to this question. A solution lies in recognising the similarity with the cause-effect issue in the epidemiological field. The approach there is to consider the changes in the risk of the event occurring as attributable, as against the occurrence of the event itself. Inherent in this approach is a recognition that knowledge of the change in risk as well as the amplitude of the forcing itself are uncertain. Consequently, the fraction of the risk attributable to the external forcing is a probabilistic quantity. Here we develop and demonstrate this methodology in the context of the climate change problem.     

Ice cover exists: A quick method to delineate groundwater inputs in running waters for cold and temperate regions

Groundwater can be important in regulating stream thermal regimes in cold, temperate regions, and as such, it can be a significant factor for aquatic biota habits and habitats. Groundwater typically remains at a constant temperature through time; that is, it is warmer than surface water in winter and cooler in summer. Further, small tributaries are often dominated by groundwater during low flows of winter and summer. We exploit these thermal patterns to identify and delineate tributary/groundwater inputs along a frozen river (ice‐on) using publically available satellite data, and we tested the findings against airborne, thermal infrared (TIR) data. We utilize a supervised maximum likelihood classification (sMLC) to identify possible groundwater inputs while the river is in a frozen state (kappa coefficient of 96.77 when compared with visually delineated possible groundwater inputs). We then compare sMLC‐identified possible groundwater inputs with TIR‐classified groundwater inputs, which confirmed that there was no statistical difference (χ² = .78), that is, confirming that groundwater inputs can be delineated in north temperate river systems using available satellite imagery of the system's frozen state. Our results also established the spatial extent and influence of possible groundwater inputs in two seasons. The thermal plumes were longer and narrower in winter; this is likely related to seasonal differences in dispersion regimes. We hypothesize that differences between summer and winter is related to either (a) tributaries that are modulated by shading in summer or (b) aquifer disconnection from the river in winter owing to frozen ground conditions and lack of aquifer recharge. This method of establishing tributary/groundwater inputs and contributions to surface water thermal regimes is relatively simple and can be useful for science and management as long as “ice cover exists”; that is, the system can achieve a frozen state.     

Value of tectonic regions in the United States

Occurrence of mineral resources is directly or indirectly controlled by major tectonic processes. Additionally, similar mineral deposit types tend to be concentrated within geologically and tectonically similar areas. As a result, information on the production history of minerals in a well-explored and developed tectonic region—such as within the United States—can be used to estimate resources of geologically similar, underdeveloped tectonic areas elsewhere. For such application, two regions should be compared for geologic similarity using all available geologic information. Estimates of resources based on geologic analogy can be useful in large-scale mineral exploration programs where relatively little geologic information is available, such as in many developing countries. In this study, seven major tectonic regions within the United States are evaluated in terms of estimated mineral value as measured by historical mineral production and economic reserves. The seven regions assessed are: (1) Cordilleran Mountain Belt, (2) Colorado Plateau, (3) Central Stable Region, (4) Canadian Shield, (5) Ozark-Ouachtia Province, (6) Gulf and Atlantic Coastal Plain, and (7) Appalachian Mountain Belt. Regions are ranked in terms of estimated value of (1) 33 major mineral commodities, (2) nonfuel minerals, (3) hydrocarbons, and (4) individual mineral commodities. In terms of total value of historical mineral production and estimated economic reserve amounts of 33 major mineral commodities, the Gulf and Atlantic Coastal Plain is most valuable, with an estimated value of 1980 US$1,970,000/km². Information on historical mineral production of U.S. tectonic regions may be useful in estimating resources in tectonically similar, underdeveloped regions elsewhere.     

Observation and analysis of some recent Galilean satellite phenomena

Five well observed recent mutual phenomena (1 occultation, 4 eclipses) of the Galilean satellites have been analysed and four fitting parameters determined for each event.The times of mid-minima are well determined in all cases (generally to within a second or two), but the separation and velocity parameters depend on the penumbral illumination modelling. For this reason, parameters derived from eclipses are somewhat less well determined than from occultations.Taken together with the dependence on the inherent surface reflection properties of the rearward satellite, the results indicate that Asknes et al.'s (1984) suggestion of order 0.01 arcsec accuracies on positional determinations from mutual phenomena data represents rather a lower limit to the real errors in most cases.     

Climate change implications for irrigation and groundwater in the Republican River Basin,USA

This study investigates the influence of climate change on groundwater availability, and thereby, irrigation across political boundaries within the US High Plains aquifer. A regression model is developed to predict changes in irrigation according to predicted changes in precipitation and temperature from a downscaled dataset of 32 general circulation models (GCMs). Precipitation recharge changes are calculated with precipitation-recharge curves developed for prognostic representations of precipitation across the Nebraska-Colorado-Kansas area and within the Republican River Basin focal landscape. Irrigation-recharge changes are scaled with changes in irrigation. The groundwater responses to climate forcings are then simulated under new pumping and recharge rates using a MODFLOW groundwater flow model. Results show that groundwater pumping and recharge both will increase and that the effects of groundwater pumping will overshadow those from natural fluctuations. Groundwater levels will decline more in areas with irrigation-driven decreasing trends in the baseline. The methodologies and predictions of this study can inform long-term water planning and the design of management strategies that help avoid and resolve water-related conflicts, enabling irrigation sustainability.     

Developing tsunami warnings from numerical model output

A method is introduced for issuing tsunami warnings in the Australian region based on numerical model output. The method considers the maximum modelled wave amplitude within pre-defined coastal waters zones and uses this as a proxy for the potential impact on the coast. A three-level stratified warning is proposed: (1) No threat, (2) Marine threat and (3) Land threat. This method is applied to several case studies and the resulting warning characteristics are shown. While the method has its limitations, it is a significant improvement over current operational warning strategies, which are typically based solely on the magnitude of the earthquake and distance from the source.