Trends and low frequency variability of extra-tropical cyclone activity in the ensemble of twentieth century reanalysis

An objective cyclone tracking algorithm is applied to twentieth century reanalysis (20CR) 6-hourly mean sea level pressure fields for the period 1871–2010 to infer historical trends and variability in extra-tropical cyclone activity. The tracking algorithm is applied both to the ensemble-mean analyses and to each of the 56 ensemble members individually. The ensemble-mean analyses are found to be unsuitable for accurately determining cyclone statistics. However, pooled cyclone statistics obtained by averaging statistics from individual members generally agree well with statistics from the NCEP-NCAR reanalyses for 1951–2010, although 20CR shows somewhat weaker cyclone activity over land and stronger activity over oceans. Both reanalyses show similar cyclone trend patterns in the northern hemisphere (NH) over 1951–2010. Homogenized pooled cyclone statistics are analyzed for trends and variability. Conclusions account for identified inhomogeneities, which occurred before 1949 in the NH and between 1951 and 1985 in the southern hemisphere (SH). Cyclone activity is estimated to have increased slightly over the period 1871–2010 in the NH. More substantial increases are seen in the SH. Notable regional and seasonal variations in trends are evident, as is profound decadal or longer scale variability. For example, the NH increases occur mainly in the mid-latitude Pacific and high-latitude Atlantic regions. For the North Atlantic-European region and southeast Australia, the 20CR cyclone trends are in agreement with trends in geostrophic wind extremes derived from in-situ surface pressure observations. European trends are also consistent with trends in the mean duration of wet spells derived from rain gauge data in Europe.     

Procedures for woody vegetation surveys in the Kazgail rural council area,Kordofan, Sudan

Efforts to reforest parts of the Kordofan Province of Sudan are receiving support from international development agencies. These efforts include planning and implementing reforestation activities that require the collection of natural resources and socioeconomic data, and the preparation of base maps. A combination of remote sensing, geographic information system and global positioning systems procedures are used in this study to meet these requirements.

Remote sensing techniques were used to provide base maps and to guide the compilation of vegetation resources maps. These techniques provided a rapid and efficient method for documenting available resources. Pocket‐sized global positioning system units were used to establish the location of field data collected for mapping and resource analysis. A microcomputer data management system tabulated and displayed the field data. The resulting system for data analysis, management, and planning has been adopted for the mapping and inventory of the Gum Belt of Sudan.     

Mobile Space-Time Envelopes for Location-Based Services

The convergence and miniaturisation of a range of information and communication technologies, together with increasing bandwidth availability and near ubiquity of mobile phones, are giving rise to a technological environment in which location‐based services (LBS) can realistically develop. In this paper we review the nature of location‐based services and the implications for data and spatial queries. In doing so, we put forward a research agenda that arises for geographical information science and engineering. Central to LBS are problems of response time and the information utility of responses to queries and any pushed alerts, where information utility refers to content, timeliness and geographical footprint. Within a publish/subscribe model of LBS provision, we propose mobile space‐time envelopes as a novel approach to event brokerage. These envelopes simultaneously provide ‘soft clip’ pruning of candidate data sets in anticipation of queries, and provide the trigger that subscribers are pertinently in‐range for alerts. We present the geometrical, algebraic and algorithmic concepts of mobile space‐time envelopes and provide an example of these mobile envelopes in action. We conclude with a discussion of how this initial implementation could be further developed to incorporate added spatio‐temporal intelligence.     

Geostatistics and Bayesian updating for transmissivity estimation in a multiaquifer system in Manitoba,Canada

In ground water flow and transport modeling, the heterogeneous nature of porous media has a considerable effect on the resulting flow and solute transport. Some method of generating the heterogeneous field from a limited dataset of uncertain measurements is required. Bayesian updating is one method that interpolates from an uncertain dataset using the statistics of the underlying probability distribution function. In this paper, Bayesian updating was used to determine the heterogeneous natural log transmissivity field for a carbonate and a sandstone aquifer in southern Manitoba. It was determined that the transmissivity in m²/sec followed a natural log normal distribution for both aquifers with a mean of -7.2 and - 8.0 for the carbonate and sandstone aquifers, respectively. The variograms were calculated using an estimator developed by Li and Lake (1994). Fractal nature was not evident in the variogram from either aquifer. The Bayesian updating heterogeneous field provided good results even in cases where little data was available. A large transmissivity zone in the sandstone aquifer was created by the Bayesian procedure, which is not a reflection of any deterministic consideration, but is a natural outcome of updating a prior probability distribution function with observations. The statistical model returns a result that is very reasonable; that is homogeneous in regions where little or no information is available to alter an initial state. No long range correlation trends or fractal behavior of the log-transmissivity field was observed in either aquifer over a distance of about 300 km.     

Ponderomotive effects in magnetospheric hydromagnetic waves

The ponderomotive force (PMF) is a ubiquitous nonlinear wave effect arising in plasma physics when applied wave fields or plasma parameters have significant spatial gradients. Some basic properties of the PMF are described as they relate to ULF hydromagnetic waves in the magnetosphere. Examples are given of recent results obtained using both analytical and numerical techniques for waves from the lowest frequencies (determined by the dimensions of the magnetosphere) up to the vicinity of the ion cyclotron frequency. These results include the possibilities that the PMF may transport plasma over large distances in the magnetosphere, and that the PMF may energize magnetospheric ions significantly. In particular the PMF may play a role in transporting and energizing O⁺ ions from the ionosphere into the body of the magnetosphere. The PMF can also generate nonlinear coupling between the slow magnetosonic mode and the other hydromagnetic modes. This should lead to limitation of density enhancements and, notably in the case of standing Alfvén waves, to spatial harmonic generation, secularly growing frequency shifts, and saturation of driven wave fields. Some implications of these results for the magnetosphere are discussed.Based on an invited review given in IAGA Symposium 3.07, Nonlinear and Kinetic Effects in ULF Waves, at the IUGG XXI General Assembly, Boulder, Colorado, July 2-14, 1995.     

Energetic Constraints on Precipitation Under Climate Change

Energetic constraints on precipitation are useful for understanding the response of the hydrological cycle to ongoing climate change, its response to possible geoengineering schemes, and the limits on precipitation in very warm climates of the past. Much recent progress has been made in quantifying the different forcings and feedbacks on precipitation and in understanding how the transient responses of precipitation and temperature might differ qualitatively. Here, we introduce the basic ideas and review recent progress. We also examine the extent to which energetic constraints on precipitation may be viewed as radiative constraints and the extent to which they are confirmed by available observations. Challenges remain, including the need to better demonstrate the link between energetics and precipitation in observations and to better understand energetic constraints on precipitation at sub-global length scales.     

Quantifying preferential flow in soils: A review of different techniques

Preferential flow (PF) in soil has both environmental and human health implications since it favours contaminant transport to groundwater without interaction with the chemically and biologically reactive upper layer of soil. PF is, however, difficult to measure and quantify. This paper reviews laboratory and field techniques, such as breakthrough curves, dye tracing, and scanning techniques, for evaluating PF in soil at different scales. Advanced technologies, such as scanning techniques, have increased our capability to quantify transport processes within the soil with minimal soil disturbance. Important issues with respect to quantifying PF concern large-scale studies, frozen soil conditions, tracing techniques for particles and gases, a lack of simple mathematical tools for interpreting field data, and the lack of a systematic approach for comparing PF data resulting from different measurement techniques. Also, more research is required to quantify the relative importance of the various PF processes that occur in soil rather than the integrated result of all PF processes in soils.