Comparative analysis of nonparametric change-point detectors commonly used in hydrology

ABSTRACT

Several commonly-used nonparametric change-point detection methods are analysed in terms of power, ability and accuracy of the estimated change-point location. The analysis is performed with synthetic data for different sample sizes, two types of change and different magnitudes of change. The methods studied are the Pettitt method, a method based on the Cramér von Mises (CvM) two-sample test statistic and a variant of the CUSUM method. The methods differ considerably in behaviour. For all methods the spread of estimated change-point location increases significantly for points near one of the ends of the sample. Series of annual maximum runoff for four stations on the Yangtze River in China are used to examine the performance of the methods on real data. It was found that the CvM-based test gave the best results, but all three methods suffer from bias and low detection rates for change points near the ends of the series.     

Petroleum source rock evaluation of the Alum and Dictyonema Shales (Upper Cambrian–Lower Ordovician) in the Baltic Basin and Podlasie Depression (eastern Poland)

International Journal of Earth Sciences - We present geochemical characteristics of the Lower Palaeozoic shales deposited in the Baltic Basin and Podlasie Depression. In the study area, this strata...     

Spatial distribution of mean winter air temperatures in Siberian permafrost at 20−18 ka BP using oxygen isotope data

Palaeotemperature reconstruction for the period of 20?18 ka BP in Siberia is here based on δ¹⁸O analysis and ¹⁴C dating of large syngenetic ice wedges. Dozens of yedoma exposures, from Yamal Peninsula to Chukotka, have been studied. Snow meltwater is considered to be the main source of ice‐wedge ice. The modern relationship between δ¹⁸O composition of ice‐wedge ice and winter temperature is used as a base for reconstruction. In modern ice wedges (elementary veins that have accumulated during the last 60–100 years) δ¹⁸O fluctuates between ?14 and ?20‰ in western Siberia and between ?23 and ?28‰ in northern Yakutia. The trend in δ¹⁸O distribution in ice wedges dated at 20?18 ka BP is similar to the modern one. For example, the δ¹⁸O values in Late Pleistocene wedges are more negative going from west to east by 8–10‰, i.e. from ?19 to ?25‰ in western Siberian ice wedges to ?30 to ?35‰ in northern Yakutia. However, values are as high as ?28 to ?33‰ in north Chukotka and the central areas of the Magadan Region and even as high as ?23 to ?29‰ in the east of Chukotka. The same difference between the oxygen isotope composition of ice wedges in the eastern and western regions of Siberian permafrost (about 8–10‰) is also preserved from 20?18 ka BP to the present: δ¹⁸O values obtained from large ice wedges from the Late Pleistocene vary from ?19 to ?25‰ in western Siberia to ?30 to ?35‰ in northern Yakutia. We conclude that, at 20?18 ka BP, mean January temperatures were about 8–12°C lower (in Chukotka up to 17–18°C) than at present.     

Relationship between shell weight and cadmium content in whole digestive gland of the Japanese scallop Patinopecten yessoensis (Jay)

Seasonal and age-specific variations of cadmium (Cd) concentration in the digestive gland were investigated in the Japanese scallop Patinopecten yessoensis from Peter the Great Bay, Sea of Japan, with different degrees of Cd pollution. The seasonal changes in Cd concentrations of the digestive gland were inversely proportional to the dry weight of the gland. Concentrations of Cd and total Cd content (mug Cd per organ) increased with age (age-specific) to the same extent in contaminated and uncontaminated areas. There was also a strong positive correlation between Cd content in the whole digestive gland and shell weight and it is proposed that this relationship can be used as a new criterion for comparative evaluation of Cd levels in scallops from different areas We hypothesize that Cd is uptaken into scallops in proportion to the amount of calcium that absorbed through ion channels, and in addition, Cd in the digestive gland is in immobile forms (e.g. metal-rich granules) that accumulate with age. Moderate environmental pollution has no effect on the relationship between Cd content and shell size and the observed decrease in growth performance of the scallops from polluted areas may be due to other factors.     

Laws of formation and criteria for predicting nickel content in weathering crusts of east Kazakhstan

The article considers from the theoretical point of new global tectonics the geological conditions of formation, peculiar features of material composition, and criteria for predicting deposits of nickeliferous weathering crusts of east Kazakhstan. According to geotectonic zoning, this territory includes geological structures of the Big Altai (BA), which is part of the central Asian mobile belt. The ore-controlling role is assigned to the area of global interaction of the Kazakhstan and Siberian paleocontinents during the stage of the Hercynian collision (Ñ₁-Ñ₃) followed by the formation of the Zaisan suture zone, the structure of which is represented by the Charsky-Gornostaevsky ophiolite belt (suture stitch). During the Hercynian cycle of tectogenesis, main gold fields of the regions appeared in the Zaisan suture (gold-quartz, gold-sulphide, gold-listvenite, etc.) in a collision situation, controlled by a system of deep faults of the crust and mantle type. In similar tectonic environment, large stockwork gold deposits were formed in Rudny Altai, north Kazakhstan, and other regions. During the Cimmerian cycle, the residual weathering crust deposits of Au, Ti-Zr, Ni-Co were formed in the region of continental rifting. The article emphasizes the spatial association of silicate cobalt-nickel deposits to the outputs of serpentinized ultrabasites of the Charsky-Gornostaevsky belt and provides a characteristic of the geological structure and material composition of nickel content in ores of the Belogorskoye and Gornostaevskoye standard deposits. Expansion of prospects depends on the possibility of growth of reserves of cobalt and nickel ores on the flanks and deep horizons of the known ore fields and search for buried deposits in prospective areas determined by geological and geophysical studies.     

The sedimentary record of the Issyk Kul basin,Kyrgyzstan: climatic and tectonic inferences

A broad array of new provenance and stable isotope data are presented from two magnetostratigraphically dated sections in the south‐eastern Issyk Kul basin of the Central Kyrgyz Tien Shan. The results presented here are discussed and interpreted for two plausible magnetostratigraphic age models. A combination of zircon U‐Pb provenance, paleocurrent and conglomerate clast count analyses is used to determine sediment provenance. This analysis reveals that the first coarse‐grained, syn‐tectonic sediments (Dzhety Oguz formation) were sourced from the nearby Terskey Range, supporting previous thermochronology‐based estimates of a ca. 25–20 Ma onset of deformation in the range. Climate variations are inferred using carbonate stable isotope (δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C) data from 53 samples collected in the two sections and are compared with the oxygen isotope compositions of modern water from 128 samples. Two key features are identified in the stable isotope data set derived from the sediments: (1) isotope values, in particular δ¹³C, decrease between ca. 26.0 and 23.6 or 25.6 and 21.0 Ma, and (2) the scatter of δ¹⁸O values increased significantly after ca. 22.6 or 16.9 Ma. The first feature is interpreted to reflect progressively wetter conditions. Because this feature slightly post‐dates the onset of deformation in the Terskey Range, we suggest that it has been caused by orographically enhanced precipitation, implying that surface uplift accompanied late Cenozoic deformation and rock uplift in the Terskey Range. The increased scatter could reflect variable moisture source or availability caused by global climate change following the onset of Miocene glaciations at ca. 22.6 Ma, or enhanced evaporation during the Mid‐Miocene climatic optimum at ca. 17–15 Ma.     

Composition and origin of hydrothermal petroleum and associated lipids in the sulfide deposits of the Rainbow field (Mid-Atlantic Ridge at 36°N)

The lipid components in hydrothermal sulfide deposits from the Rainbow vent field (Mid-Atlantic Ridge at 36°N) were studied by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry. The Rainbow vent field is one of two known active hydrothermal systems related to abyssal circulation, where high-temperature fluids are formed during serpentinization of ultrabasic crustal rocks. The major amount of the extractable organic matter from the sulfides consists of normal and branched alkanes, UCM, PAHs, terpenoids, and fatty acids. The branched alkanes are comprised of unique gem-diethylalkane series, possibly from sulfide oxidizing bacteria, and biphytanes from archaea. The characteristic lipid and biomarker compounds found in the hydrothermal samples support a predominantly biological origin of the bitumens from the thermal transformation of the biomass of microorganisms (bacteria and archea) and minor macrofauna of this vent field. A search for molecular evidence for abiogenic thermocatalytic synthesis of organic compounds was negative. However, methane in the hydrothermal fluids and possibly a minor amount of the alkanes in the sulfides may be of an abiogenic origin in the Rainbow vent field.     

Spatial heterogeneity and long-term changes in bivalveAnadara broughtoni population: influence of river run-off and fishery

A comparison was made of population of the economically important cockleAnadara (=Scapharca)broughtoni (Bivalvia, Arcidae) inhabiting different areas of the Razdolnaya River estuary at the head of Amurskii Bay (Peter the Great Gulf, East Sea). Also, changes in cockle population density and structure, as well as in cockle growth rates during the last 20 years were studied. In all years of investigation, the morphometrical parameters and growth rates of cockles were smaller at the sites located close to the River mouth than farther down-estuary. The differences can be attributed to higher concentration of suspended particulate matter, decreased salinity and water temperature, as well as a longer exposure to these unfavorable environmental factors at sites located close to the River mouth, compared to farther sites. For two decades, cockle population density had decreased by almost 30 times at some sites in the River estuary. The main reason for this population decline is commercial over-fishing of the cockle. Besides, for the last 20 years, linear parameters of the cockles in the population decreased approximately by 30% and weight parameters, almost two times. Cockle growth rates also decreased for this period. Evidently, these facts are due to the damaging effect of dredging.