Projection of economic impacts of climate change in sectors of Europe based on bottom up analysis: human health

This paper scopes a number of the health impacts of climate change in Europe (EU-27) quantitatively, using physical and monetary metrics. Temperature-related mortality effects, salmonellosis and coastal flooding-induced mental health impacts resulting from climate change are isolated from the effects of socio-economic change for the 2011–2040 and 2071–2100 time periods. The temperature-induced mortality effects of climate change include both positive and negative effects, for winter (cold) and summer (heat) effects, respectively, and have welfare costs (and benefits) of up to 100 billion Euro annually by the later time-period, though these are unevenly distributed across countries. The role of uncertainty in quantifying these effects is explored through sensitivity analysis on key parameters. This investigates climate model output, climate scenario, impact function, the existence and extent of acclimatisation, and the choice of physical and monetary metrics. While all of these lead to major differences in reported results, acclimatisation is particularly important in determining the size of the health impacts, and could influence the scale and form of public adaptation at the EU and national level. The welfare costs for salmonellosis from climate change are estimated at potentially several hundred million Euro annually by the period 2071–2100. Finally, a scoping assessment of the health costs of climate change from coastal flooding, focusing on mental health problems such as depression, are estimated at up to 1.5 billion Euro annually by the period 2071–2100.     

Solar System Observations with MIRI, The Mid InfraRed Instrument on the James Webb Space Telescope

MIRI is the Mid InfraRed Instrument for the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) and will provide imaging, coronography and integral field spectroscopy in the range between 4.9 and 28.6  $\upmu \hbox{m}.$ We summarise solar system observations which may be possible with this instrument, drawing on examples of observations made with previous space missions such as IRAS, ISO and Spitzer.     

Effects of the peat acid digestion protocol on geochemically and morphologically diverse tephra deposits

Tephra shards for electron probe microanalysis are most efficiently extracted from peat using acid digestion, which removes organic material that hinders density separation methods. However, strong acids are known to alter glass chemical compositions, and several studies have examined how acid digestion affects rhyolitic volcanic glass. The focus on rhyolitic tephra in these studies leaves considerable uncertainty, as the dissolution rates of natural glasses (including tephra) are determined by the chemical composition and surface area/volume ratio, both of which vary in tephra deposits. Here, we use duplicate samples of basaltic, trachydacitic and rhyolitic tephra to examine physical and geochemical alteration following acid digestion. Scanning electron microscope imagery reveals no discernible degradation of glass surfaces, and electron probe microanalysis results from duplicate samples are statistically indistinguishable. These findings suggest the acid digestion protocol for organic peats does not significantly alter glass geochemistry regardless of shard morphologies or geochemical compositions.     

Downscaling future climate change projections over Puerto Rico using a non-hydrostatic atmospheric model

We present results from 20-year “high-resolution” regional climate model simulations of precipitation change for the sub-tropical island of Puerto Rico. The Japanese Meteorological Agency Non-Hydrostatic Model (NHM) operating at a 2-km grid resolution is nested inside the Regional Spectral Model (RSM) at 10-km grid resolution, which in turn is forced at the lateral boundaries by the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4). At this resolution, the climate change experiment allows for deep convection in model integrations, which is an important consideration for sub-tropical regions in general, and on islands with steep precipitation gradients in particular that strongly influence local ecological processes and the provision of ecosystem services. Projected precipitation change for this region of the Caribbean is simulated for the mid-twenty-first century (2041–2060) under the RCP8.5 climate-forcing scenario relative to the late twentieth century (1986–2005). The results show that by the mid-twenty-first century, there is an overall rainfall reduction over the island for all seasons compared to the recent climate but with diminished mid-summer drought (MSD) in the northwestern parts of the island. Importantly, extreme rainfall events on sub-daily and daily time scales also become slightly less frequent in the projected mid-twenty-first-century climate over most regions of the island.     

Decadal link between longitudinal morphological changes in branching channels of Yangtze estuary and movement of the offshore depo-center

In estuaries, the morphology of inland and offshore areas usually evolves synergistically. This study examines the decadal link between longitudinal changes in morphology of branching channels and movement of the offshore depo-center (where sediment deposition rate is maximum) of the Yangtze River estuary, under intense human interference. Integrated data analysis is provided on morphology, runoff discharge, and ebb partition ratio from 1950 to 2017. Channel-volume reductions and change rates between isobaths in branching channels reflect the impact of estuarine engineering projects. Ebb partition ratio and duration of discharge ≥ 60 000 m³ s^-1 act as proxies for the water excavating force in branching channels and runoff intensity. It is found that deposition occurs in the lower/upper sub-reaches (or further downstream/upstream channels) of the inland north/south branching channels, and the offshore depo-center moves southward or southeastward, as runoff intensity grows; the reverse occurs as runoff intensity declines. This is because the horizontal circumfluence in the Yangtze estuary rotates clockwise as ebb partition ratios of the north/south branching channels increase/decrease for increasing runoff, and conversely rotates anticlockwise for decreasing runoff. Land reclamation activities, the Deepwater Channel Project, and the Qingcaosha Reservoir have impacted greatly on longitudinal changes of morphology in the North Branch and the South Passage and on ebb partition ratio variations in the North/South Channel and the North/South Passage. Dam-induced runoff flattening has enhanced deposition in the upper/lower sub-reaches of the north/south branching channels and caused northward movement of the offshore depo-center, except in areas affected by estuarine engineering projects. Dam-induced longitudinal evolution of branching channel morphology and offshore depo-center movement will likely persist in the future, given the ongoing construction of large cascade dams in the upper Yangtze and the completion of major projects in the Yangtze estuary. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Erosive flood events on the surface of Mars: Application to Mangala and Athabasca Valles

We address key factors involved in determining water flow conditions in outflow channels on Mars, including the temperature of the sub-surface water being released and the environmental conditions of low temperature, low atmospheric pressure, and low acceleration due to gravity. We suggest how some of the assumptions made in previous work may be improved. Our model considers the thermodynamic effects of simultaneous evaporation and freezing of water, and fluid dynamical processes including changes in flow rheology caused by assimilation of cold rock and ice eroded at the channel bed, and ice crystal growth due to water freezing. We model how far initially turbulent water could flow in a channel before it erodes and entrains enough material to become laminar, and subsequently ceases to erode the bed. An ice raft will begin to form on the flood while transition occurs between turbulent and laminar flow. Estimates are given for water transit times, ～17–19 h, initial water depths, 50–62 m, and average flow speeds, 5–12 m s^?1, in the Mangala and Athabasca Valles. We show that these two outflow channels, and by implication others like them, could plausibly have been formed in single water release events. Resulting mean erosion rates are approximately 0.7 mm s^?1, a factor of three greater than previous estimates based on combinations of estimates of flood duration and required water volumes. This is explained by the consideration of the effects of eroded ice and the physics of thermal erosion in the present study.     

Diagnosis of river basins as CO2 sources or sinks subject to sediment movement

Sediment movement during erosion, transport and deposition greatly affects the ecosystem of river basins. However, there is presently no consensus as to whether particular river basins act as carbon dioxide (CO₂) sources or sinks related to these processes. This paper introduces a rule‐of‐thumb coordinate system based on sediment delivery ratio (SDR) and soil humin content (SHC) in order to evaluate the net effect of soil erosion, sediment transport and deposition on CO₂ flux in river basins. The SDR–SHC system delineates CO₂ source and sink areas, and further divides the sink into strong and weak areas according to the world‐average line. The Yellow River Basin, most severely suffering soil erosion in the world, only appears to be a weak erosion‐induced CO₂ sink in this system. The average annual CO₂ sequestration is ~0·235 Mt from 1960 to 2008, a relatively small value considering its 3·1% contribution to the World's sediment discharge. The temporal analysis shows that the Yellow River Basin was once a source in the 1960s, but changed its role to become a weak sink in the past 40 years due to both anthropogenic and climatic influences. The spatial analysis identifies the middle sub‐basin as the main source region, and the lower as the main sink. For comparison, sediment‐movement‐related CO₂ fluxes of eight other major basins in four continents are examined. It is found that the six basins considered in the Northern Hemisphere appear to be sinks, while the other two in the Southern Hemisphere act as sources. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A geocomputational analysis of Twitter activity around different world cities

The penetration and use of social media services differs from city to city. This paper is aimed to provide a comparison of the use of Twitter between different cities of the world. We present a temporal analysis of activity on Twitter in 15 cities. Our study consists of two parts: First, we created temporal graphs of the activity in the 15 cities, through which hours of high and low activity could be identified. Second, we created heat map visualizations of the Twitter activities during the period of 19 September 2012–25 September 2013. The heat map visualizations make the periods of intense and sparse activity apparent and provide a snapshot of the activity during the whole year.