Two tiltmeters and an integrating seismometer for the monitoring of volcanic activity, and the results of some trials on Mount Etna

Two types of continuously recording tiltmeter and a new “integrating seismometer” were tested on Etna during the period September to December 1976. The primary object was the investigation of techniques for the surveillance and prediction of volcanic activity, but some information on the internal structure and mechanism of Etna was also obtained. It was concluded that a network of tiltmeters combined with seismic monitoring (using standard and/or integrating seismometers) offers the best dual approach to the problem of determining the true state of dormant volcanoes, and predicting the date and site of possible future eruptions.     

A GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR PHYSICAL-GEOGRAPHIC REGIONALIZATION

The design and functioning of a geographic information system established for the purpose of objectively delineating the boundaries of major physical geographic regions in the USSR is described. The basic components include an information input block for data collection and preliminary image processing; a recognition block for feature classification and analysis; a data base management system providing for repeated revision, addition, and use of spectral information; and a block for displaying results of processing in various forms. Applications of the system are demonstrated in the mapping of physical regions in a steppe and semi-desert area of the southern USSR. Translated from: Izvestiya Akademii Nauk SSSR, seriya geograficheskaya, 1988, No. 2, pp. 89-94.     

Rainfall over Oman and its teleconnection with El Niño Southern Oscillation

The Sultanate of Oman is located in the south-eastern part of the Arabian Peninsula and covers the larger part of the southern coasts of the Arabian Peninsula in both arid and semi-arid environments except for the southern part which is swept by the monsoon affecting the Arabian Sea during the period from June to September. The summer rainfall over Oman shows year-to-year variability, and this is caused by oceanic and atmospheric influences. In the present study, we tried to explore the influence of El Niño on the rainfall over Oman using different data sets. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF) technique employed to the zonal wind at 850 hPa for the 30-year period shows that the second and third modes of EOF are showing high variability over the Oman regions. The corresponding PCs were subjected to FFT analysis, and it showed a peak about 5–6 years. In addition to this, the zonal wind over the Oman regions is correlated with the global zonal wind and found a significant correlation (1 % significant level). It has already been proved that the wind and rainfall during summer monsoon is in phase. Moreover, the spectral analysis of rainfall at Masirah station and the Niño3.4 index show the similar mode of variability indicating a direct relationship. The correlation between rainfall and the Niño3.4 index is also showing a positive significant value, and therefore, it can be concluded that the El Niño in the Pacific favours rainfall over the Oman region.     

Mapping landslide susceptibility with frequency ratio,statistical index,and weights of evidence models: a case study in northern Iran

The main objective of this study is to investigate potential application of frequency ratio (FR), weights of evidence (WoE), and statistical index (SI) models for landslide susceptibility mapping in a part of Mazandaran Province, Iran. First, a landslide inventory map was constructed from various sources. The landslide inventory map was then randomly divided in a ratio of 70/30 for training and validation of the models, respectively. Second, 13 landslide conditioning factors including slope degree, slope aspect, altitude, plan curvature, stream power index, topographic wetness index, sediment transport index, topographic roughness index, lithology, distance from streams, faults, roads, and land use type were prepared, and the relationships between these factors and the landslide inventory map were extracted by using the mentioned models. Subsequently, the multi-class weighted factors were used to generate landslide susceptibility maps. Finally, the susceptibility maps were verified and compared using several methods including receiver operating characteristic curve with the areas under the curve (AUC), landslide density, and spatially agreed area analyses. The success rate curve showed that the AUC for FR, WoE, and SI models was 81.51, 79.43, and 81.27, respectively. The prediction rate curve demonstrated that the AUC achieved by the three models was 80.44, 77.94, and 79.55, respectively. Although the sensitivity analysis using the FR model revealed that the modeling process was sensitive to input factors, the accuracy results suggest that the three models used in this study can be effective approaches for landslide susceptibility mapping in Mazandaran Province, and the resultant susceptibility maps are trustworthy for hazard mitigation strategies.     

Stratal patterns in the southwestern margin of the Ulleung Basin off southeast Korea: sequence architecture controlled by back-arc tectonism

 Major variations in type and rate of tectonic movement in the southwestern margin of the Ulleung Basin coincide in time with changes in stratal patterns at succession boundaries, suggesting that the effect of tectonism was dominant for the development of sequence architecture. During the back-arc opening (16–12 Ma), the rise of relative sea level and the high rate of sediment supply gave rise to sequences with sigmoid progradational patterns. During the back-arc closing (12–6.5 Ma), fall- and rise-dominated relative sea-level fluctuations resulted in sequences with varying stratal patterns depending upon changes in deposition rate. The rise-dominated relative sea level has been prevalent during the later stage (6.5 Ma–Present) with low sedimentation rate. Received: 16 January 1996 / Revision received: 7 February 1997     

青藏高原近地面层微气象学特征

利用1998年5月-7月在改则、当雄和昌都三测站获得的近地面层气象要素变化的观测资料，分析了青藏高原近地面层风速、温度和湿度日变化特征及廓线规律，发现高原近地面层微气象学特征具有自己的特点；同时还讨论了高原近地面层白天出现的逆湿现象。     

The effect of an interface boundary layer on the resonance properties of a buried structure

This paper presents a model for the analysis of the diffraction of plane waves at a cavity in an infinite homogeneous linear elastic medium supported by a segmented lining. An elastic boundary layer is introduced between the cavity lining and the infinite medium. The boundary layer is simulated by ‘elastic boundary conditions’ in which the stress is proportional to the relative displacement of the lining and of the surrounding medium boundary. A closed‐form analytical solution of the problem was obtained using the Fourier–Bessel series, the convergence of which was proven. It was shown that the number of series terms required to obtain a desired level of accuracy can be determined in advance. Using amplitude–frequency response analysis it was shown that the boundary layer produces additional ‘pseudo‐resonance’ frequencies that depend on the layer properties. These frequencies are almost identical to the eigenvalues obtained from the simple analysis of a segmented elastically supported lining. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A predictability study of simulated North Atlantic multidecadal variability

 The North Atlantic is one of the few places on the globe where the atmosphere is linked to the deep ocean through air–sea interaction. While the internal variability of the atmosphere by itself is only predictable over a period of one to two weeks, climate variations are potentially predictable for much longer periods of months or even years because of coupling with the ocean. This work presents details from the first study to quantify the predictability for simulated multidecadal climate variability over the North Atlantic. The model used for this purpose is the GFDL coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model used extensively for studies of global warming and natural climate variability. This model contains fluctuations of the North Atlantic and high-latitude oceanic circulation with variability concentrated in the 40–60 year range. Oceanic predictability is quantified through analysis of the time-dependent behavior of large-scale empirical orthogonal function (EOF) patterns for the meridional stream function, dynamic topography, 170 m temperature, surface temperature and surface salinity. The results indicate that predictability in the North Atlantic depends on three main physical mechanisms. The first involves the oceanic deep convection in the subpolar region which acts to integrate atmospheric fluctuations, thus providing for a red noise oceanic response as elaborated by Hasselmann. The second involves the large-scale dynamics of the thermohaline circulation, which can cause the oceanic variations to have an oscillatory character on the multidecadal time scale. The third involves nonlocal effects on the North Atlantic arising from periodic anomalous fresh water transport advecting southward from the polar regions in the East Greenland Current. When the multidecadal oscillatory variations of the thermohaline circulation are active, the first and second EOF patterns for the North Atlantic dynamic topography have predictability time scales on the order of 10–20 y, whereas EOF-1 of SST has predictability time scales of 5–7 y. When the thermohaline variability has weak multidecadal power, the Hasselmann mechanism is dominant and the predictability is reduced by at least a factor of two. When the third mechanism is in an extreme phase, the North Atlantic dynamic topography patterns realize a 10–20 year predictability time scale. Additional analysis of SST in the Greenland Sea, in a region associated with the southward propagating fresh water anomalies, indicates the potential for decadal scale predictability for this high latitude region as well. The model calculations also allow insight into regional variations of predictability, which might be useful information for the design of a monitoring system for the North Atlantic. Predictability appears to break down most rapidly in regions of active convection in the high-latitude regions of the North Atlantic. Received: 28 October 1996 / Accepted: 21 March 1997