Capturing the time-dependence in the precipitation process for weather risk assessment

This work investigates the seasonal, long-term and time-dependence properties of the precipitation process using daily precipitation amount records in Calgary and develops occurrence–amount models which capture the complex properties of the process. Data show that: (a) the probability of precipitation occurrence not only depends on the occurrence of the previous days, but also depends on the amount values. Moreover this dependence varies with season. (b) The expected amount and its volatility depend on the occurrence as well as the amount on the previous days—these dependencies reveal seasonal patterns. (c) There is a strong long-term dependence in Calgary’s data. The proposed models in this work satisfy these properties. A large set of covariates is built to capture the complexity of various properties of the precipitation process. A grouped sequential model selection approach is used to pick the appropriate covariates which works by assigning the predictors to various groups and sequentially exploring them. This framework is assessed by comparing the simulations from the models to the observed data. This confirms a satisfactory agreement.     

Supergene Mass-Balance Study Assuming Zero Lateral Copper Flux Using Geostatistics to Recognize Metal Source Zones in Exotic Copper Deposits

Recognition of effective factors that influence the spatial extension of supergene weathering zones is important both for the identification of high potential areas of exotic deposits and for the cost-effective planning of mining. In particular, recognition of exotic mineralization around porphyry copper deposits early in mine development prevents them from being buried beneath mine infrastructures such as waste dump and tailing structures. Mass-balance modeling, a practical method for determining high potential areas of undiscovered exotic mineralization, investigates important factors in forming exotic deposits. Mass-balance modeling is a two-phase methodology that becomes progressively more detailed. An initial result, presented here as phase 1, is based solely on Cu assays. Phase 2 incorporates relict sulfide mineral studies to improve phase 1 modeling results and computes actual fluxes of copper that escaped vertically downward from the leached cap to form the enrichment blanket and then flowed laterally away to form exotic mineralization. In addition, geostatistical approaches, especially sequential Gaussian simulation, are useful tools for investigating the spatial relationships and modeling of mass-balance results in phase 1 studies. This paper introduces a method for interpolation and downscaling of the preliminary mass-balance analysis (phase 1) to highlight the role of geological features in the evolution of the supergene process. Using only copper assays without any need for relict sulfide mineralogy, this approach can be used to approximately identify the geographic direction of metal movement in exotic copper deposits, and thus serve as an initial exploration guide in prospecting for exotic deposits. For this, a vertical columnar block model was constructed for each of the supergene weathering zones and preliminary analysis of mass balance was conducted to reconstruct the apparent total leached zone column height assuming zero lateral flux. This analysis was applied to each of the vertical block model columns. The results of mass balance were interpolated in a 5?×?5 m grid by sequential Gaussian simulation method, and the simulated surface of the total leached zone was conflated with geological features. The roles of topography, argillic alteration and linear structures were identified in the transport of supergene solutions in the Miduk porphyry copper deposit of Iran. In the northern section of the deposit, which is in accordance with the topography gradient and the presence of advanced argillic alteration zone, the computed top total of leaching is below the actual surface topography, whereas the hypogene isograd curves confirm the expansion of primary copper in these areas. The northern section of the deposit was introduced as a susceptible area for the removal of copper-bearing solutions from the supergene enrichment system.

     

Biomonitoring of Ni and V Contamination Using Oysters (Saccostrea cucullata) at Lengeh Port,Persian Gulf,Iran

Vanadium and nickel are two important indicators of oil pollution. Lengthy exposure to these elements causes serious harmful effects in human health, different harsh allergies being examples. The accumulation of two heavy metals (Ni and V) in sediment and the soft and hard tissues of Saccostrea cucullata were analyzed at three sampling sites along the coast of Lengeh Port, Persian Gulf. Results indicated at all the sampling sites; the Ni levels in soft tissues (STs) were higher than in the shells (SHs) and sediments, whereas the V levels were higher in the sediments. In addition, meaningful relationship (r = 0.65; p < 0.05) was observed across Ni levels in ST of S. cucullata and sediment, while for V concentrations a strong relationship (r = 0.83; p < 0.01) was found in SH of S. cucullata and sediment. This indicates that ST and SH of oyster can be considered as a biomonitoring agent for Ni and V levels, in coastal waters, respectively. The exposure of the consumer is compared directly to minimal risk level and provisional maximum tolerable daily intake. Result indicated that levels of Ni and V were within the safety limits for human consumption.     

The influence of environmental variables on distribution patterns of Irano-Turanian forests in Alborz Mountains,Iran

Topographic and edaphic variables are the main ecological factor determining species spatial variability on mountainous forests. A field study was performed in central Alborz to investigate how the edaphic and topographic parameters can affect the tree and shrub communities. Initially, 27 forest stands were identified and the homogeneous units were separated regarding physiognomy. In each single homogeneous unit, one random sample plot (1000 m2) and totally 43 plots were established. In each plot, the presence and abundance of all trees and shrubs were recorded and four soil samples were taken from depths of 0-5 and 5-20 cm. Concerning classification results, eight different forest communities were identified. The lowest and highest soil pH values were observed in Malus orientalis and pistacia-Amygdalus communities, respectively. The water saturation percent of pure- and mixed Juniperus excelsa and Rhus coriaria was the highest amongst communities. The clay content was the highest in pure J. excelsa. The 0-5 organic matter and Nitrogen content in mixed J. excelsa were significantly higher than pure J. excelsa and other communities. The CCA (Canonical Correspondence Analysis) results indicated that the altitude, precipitation, pH, EC, SP, clay and CaCO₃ are the most important factors determine the distribution of trees and shrub in central Alborz     

The Positive Effects of Nanoclay on the Hydraulic Conductivity of Compacted Kahrizak Clay Permeated With Landfill Leachate

This study evaluates the effect of nanoclay on permeability, swelling, compressive strength, and cation exchange capacity of a compacted Kahrizak landfill clay liner. The results show that 4% nanoclay significantly reduces permeability (3 × 10^?9 to 7.74 × 10^?11 cm/s in neutral, 3.66 × 10^?9 to 7.9 × 10^?10 cm/s in acidic, and 3.25 × 10^?9 to 5.24 × 10^?10 cm/s in alkaline condition), and increases compressive strength (by 36.28%) and the percentage of swelling (from 16.67 to 41.82, 23.33 to 45.45, and 15 to 38.18 at pH 7, 4.8, and 9, respectively) compare to raw clay samples. Moreover, the results of cation exchange capacity tests show that adding 4% nanoclay to the Kahrizak clay, permeated with landfill leachate, helps the sample maintain its mono‐valent ions between layers and remains dispersed. The results of SEM and XRD analyses show that by adding nanoclay, nanoclay clusters are formed in the sample; as a result, the interlayer spacing decreases which makes it remain dispersed. XRF analyses also demonstrate that by adding nanoclay to the mixture, the permeability and therefore, the amount of heavy metals which can penetrate into it decreases. The results justify the construction of clay barriers with nanoclay in order to prevent leachate penetration, and consequently reduce the operation costs.     

Numerical evaluation of liquefaction-induced damages in composite breakwaters and its application for performance-based improvement design

Breakwaters provide a calm sea basin for ships and protect harbor facilities by reflecting wave energy toward the open sea area. Their performance under environmental loadings is the main concern for coastal engineers. Liquefaction susceptibility of loose sediments of seabed threatens performance of these structures. The article investigates soil liquefaction effects on the seismic performance of Iran liquefied natural gas (LNG) composite breakwater. Performance-based design method, considering both grade of the breakwater and acceptable level of damages, was selected as design philosophy. Liquefaction-induced damages to the breakwater were determined by numerical analysis. Since the obtained level of deformations did not meet allowable damages, soil improvement against liquefaction was considered. Different improvement patterns were proposed based on distribution of pore pressure ratio (r_u) beneath the breakwater to control its seismic performance. This investigation revealed that the most important area for soil improvement is located near the toes of breakwater to control the slope instability and performance of the breakwater.     

Link formation pattern during emergency response network dynamics

This study aims to understand the mechanisms of emergency response network evolution by quantitatively examining the link formation pattern among participants involved in a real emergency collaboration network. This is achieved by identifying the participants’ characteristics which can affect forming new links over time. The result indicates the existence of cumulative advantage process, where highly connected participants gain more new links over time. It also reveals the structural position of participants involved in a response network, i.e. brokering position, affects their number of future links. Understanding the link formation pattern is important for understanding the mechanisms of network evolution which help predict more precisely the behavior of actors and dynamics of network structure over time. This can assist researchers, decision makers and practitioners to manage and support the collaboration of actors in their systems in order to reach their organizational goals. The overall findings can contribute further to the development of network organizational theory in different contexts especially disaster and emergency response management.     

Landslide susceptibility assessment by Dempster–Shafer and Index of Entropy models,Sarkhoun basin,Southwestern Iran

Landslides are natural disasters often activated by interaction of different controlling environmental factors, especially in mountainous terrains. In this research, the landslide susceptibility map was developed for the Sarkhoun catchment using Index of Entropy (IoE) and Dempster–Shafer (DS) models. For this purpose, 344 landslides were mapped in GIS environment. 241 (70%) out of the landslides were selected for the modeling and the remaining (30%) were employed for validation of the models. Afterward, 10 landslide conditioning factor layers were prepared including land use, distance to drainage, slope gradient, altitude, lithology, distance to roads, distance to faults, slope aspect, Topography Wetness Index, and Stream Power Index. The relationship between the landslide conditioning factors and landslide inventory maps was determined using the IoE and DS models. In order to verify the models, the results were compared with validation landslide data not employed in training process of the models. Accordingly, Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves were applied, and Area Under the Curve (AUC) was calculated for the obtained susceptibility maps using the success (training data) and prediction (validation data) rate curves. The land use was found to be the most important factor in the study area. The AUC are 0.82, and 0.81 for success rates of the IoE, and DS models, respectively, while the prediction rates are 0.76 and 0.75. Therefore, the results of the IoE model are more accurate than the DS model. Furthermore, a satisfactory agreement is observed between the generated susceptibility maps by the models and true location of the landslides.     

Experimental study on local scour around single oblong pier fitted with a collar in a 180 degree flume bend

In this work, investigation on the development of local scour around an oblong pier in a 180 degree flume bend is presented. Scour hole can cause failure of the bridge especially during the river floods. In this study, the use of oblong collars for reducing the effects of local scour at a bridge pier is presented together with the time aspect of the scour development. Tests were conducted using one oblong pier in positions of 60degree under one flow conditions. The study was conducted using a physical hydraulic model operated under clear-water conditions in cohesionless bed material. In this study, the time development of the local scour around the oblong pier fitted with and without collar plates was studied. Investigated was the effect of size and elevation collar on the time development of scour and its efficacy at preventing scour at a bridge pier. The time development of the scour hole around the model pier with and without a collar installed was compared with similar studies on bridge piers. The results of the model study indicated that the maximum depth of scour is highly dependent on the experimental duration. It was observed that, as the minimum depth of scour occurs for the square collar at width of 3B placed at elevation of 0.1B below the bed and the size of a collar plate increases, the scour decreases. Measuring depth of scouring based on experimental observation, an empirical relation is developed with regression coefficient 95%.