Assessing conditional extremal risk of flooding in Puerto Rico

We model multivariate hydrological risks in the case that at least one of the variables is extreme. Recently, Heffernan JE, Tawn JA (2004) A conditional approach for multivariate extremes. J R Stat Soc B 66(3):497–546 (thereafter called HT04) proposed a conditional multivariate extreme value model which applies to regions where not all variables are extreme and simultaneously identifies the type of extremal dependence, including negative dependence. In this paper we apply this modeling strategy and provide an application to multivariate observations of five rivers in two clearly distinct regions of Puerto Rico Island and for two different seasons each. This effective dimensionality of ten-dimensions cannot be handled by the traditional models of multivariate extremes. The resulting fitted model, following HT04 model and strategies of estimation, is able to make long term estimation of extremes, conditional than other rivers are extreme or not. The model shows considerable flexibility to address the natural questions that arise in multivariate extreme value assessments. In the Puerto Rico 5 rivers application, the model clearly puts together two regions one of two rivers and another of three rivers, which show strong relationships in the rainy season. This corresponds with the geographical distribution of the rivers.

Temporal changes in pelagic copepod assemblages off Ubatuba,Brazil

The inner shelf waters off Southeastern Brazil are periodically enriched by bottom intrusions of the cold and nutrient‐rich South Atlantic Central Water (SACW), which is transported offshore by the Brazil Current. This study examined the temporal contrasts in abundance and structure of pelagic copepod assemblages in a neritic station off Ubatuba, in relation to hydrography and phytoplankton biomass, to investigate the effects of SACW bottom intrusions on copepod population dynamics during three consecutive years. The water‐column characteristics shifted from a well‐mixed, more turbid and phytoplankton‐poor scenario during subsidence conditions to a stratified, less turbid and high Chl‐a concentration scenario during SACW bottom intrusions, leading to increased copepod diversity, abundance, and biomass. The rise in copepod diversity during SACW intrusions was related to the contribution of oceanic species in addition to coastal water species. The copepod community was numerically dominated by small‐sized species, such as Oncaea waldemari, Oithona plumifera, and clausocalanid and paracalanid copepodids, regardless of seasonality and SACW intrusions. Some large calanoid species contributed considerably to the total copepod biomass during intrusions. In addition to confirming that SACW seasonal intrusions play a key role in pelagic processes off Southeast Brazil, this study showed that the multiannual variability of SACW seasonal intrusions is important in regulating the structure and dynamics of copepod communities in this subtropical area.     

A new methodology for computing ionic profiles and disjoining pressure in swelling porous media

A new two-scale computational model is proposed to construct the constitutive law of the swelling pressure which appears in the modified form of the macroscopic effective stress principle for expansive clays saturated by an aqueous electrolyte solution containing multivalent ionic species. The microscopic non-local nanoscale model is constructed based on a coupled Poisson-Fredholm integral equation arising from the thermodynamics of inhomogeneous fluids in nanopores (Density Functional Theory), which governs the local electric double layer potential profile coupled with the ion-particle correlation function in an electrolytic solution of finite size ions. The local problem is discretized by invoking the eigenvalue expansion of the convolution kernel in conjunction with the Galerkin method for the Gauss-Poisson equation. The discretization of the Fredholm equation is accomplished by a collocation scheme employing eigenfunction basis. Numerical simulations of the local ionic profiles in rectangular cell geometries are obtained showing considerable discrepancies with those computed with Poisson-Boltzmann based models for point charges, particularly for divalent ions in calcium montmorillonite. The constitutive law for the disjoining pressure is reconstructed numerically by invoking the contact theorem within a post-processing approach. The resultant computational model is capable of capturing ranges of particle attraction characterized by negative values of the disjoining pressure overlooked by the classical electric double layer theory. Such results provide further insight in the role the swelling pressure plays in the modified macroscopic effective stress principle for expansive porous media.     

The Effect of Salinity and Temperature Gradients on the Distribution of Littoral Microalgae in Experimental Solar Ponds, Dead Sea Area, Israel

Abstract. Several species of cyanobacteria, diatoms and one euglenid alga populated the littoral zone of hypersaline solar ponds investigated over a period of three years. The composition of the microalgae community changed with salinity and temperature. In the shallow marginal zone the diatoms predominated in winter and spring, at salinities of 30–72 g-1^-1 and at temperatures not exceeding 30o°C, whereas in summer, cyanobacteria were the most abundant. In the deeper zone, at higher salinities and temperatures, cyanobacteria predominated throughout the year. The depth limit of algal growth was 60-80cm, where salinity and temperature exceeded 211 g-1^-1 and 48°C.
The most euryhaline and eurythermal among cyanobacteria were Aphanolhece halophytica F remy and Phormidium hypolimneticum C ampbell , among diatoms Nitzschia sp. aff. N. rostellata H ustedt , Amphora coffeaeformis (A gardh ) K utzing , and Navicula massadaea E hrlich .     

Assessing the limits of the Modified Gaussian Model for remote spectroscopic studies of pyroxenes on Mars

We investigate the ability to refine pyroxene composition and modal abundance from laboratory and remotely acquired spectra. Laboratory data including the martian meteorites, Shergotty, Zagami, MIL03346, and ALH84001 as well as additional pyroxene-rich spectra obtained from the OMEGA (Observatoire pour la Minéralogie, l'Eau, les Glaces, et l'Activité) spectrometer for Mars are characterized using the Modified Gaussian Model (MGM), a spectral deconvolution method developed by Sunshine et al. [Sunshine, J.M., Pieters, C.M., Pratt, S., 1990. J. Geophys. Res. 95, 6955-6966]. We develop two sensitivity tests to assess the extent to which the MGM can consistently predict (1) pyroxene composition and (2) modal abundance for a compositionally diverse suite of pyroxene spectra. Results of the sensitivity tests indicate that the MGM can be appropriately applied to remote spectroscopic measurements of extraterrestrial surfaces and can estimate pyroxene composition and relative abundance within a derived uncertainty. Deconvolved band positions for laboratory spectra of the meteorites Shergotty and Zagami are determined within ±17 nm while remotely acquired OMEGA spectra are defined within ±50 nm. These results suggest that absolute compositions can be uniquely derived from laboratory pyroxene-rich spectra and non-uniquely derived from the remote measurements of OMEGA at this time. While relative pyroxene chemistries are not assessed from OMEGA measurements at this time, relative pyroxene abundances are estimated using a normalized band strength ratio between the low-calcium (LCP) and high-calcium (HCP) endmember components and are constrained to ±10%. The fraction of LCP in a two-pyroxene mixture is the derived value from the normalized band strength ratio, LCP/(LCP + HCP). This calculation for relative abundance is robust in the presence of up to 10-15% olivine. Deconvolution results from the OMEGA spectra indicate that the ancient terrain in the Syrtis Major region is uniquely enriched in LCP (59±10% LCP) relative to HCP while the volcanics of Syrtis Major are uniquely enriched in HCP (39±10% LCP).     

Settlement Analysis of Açu Dam,Brazil

Geotechnical and Geological Engineering - The Armando Ribeiro Gonçalves Dam, popularly known as The Açu Dam, is an important geotechnical construction in Rio Grande do Norte state,...     

Suitability of GNSS for analysis of soil subsidence in Recife in a highly urbanized coastal area

Natural Hazards - Recife Metropolitan Region, in the northeast of Brazil, is formed by a coastal plain bounded by hills and by the Atlantic Ocean. Recife Metropolitan Region has about 4 million...     

Metal loading effect on rare earth element binding to humic acid: Experimental and modelling evidence

The effect of metal loading on the binding of rare earth elements (REE) to humic acid (HA) was studied by combining ultrafiltration and Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry techniques. REE-HA complexation experiments were performed at pH 3 for REE/C molar ratios ranging from ca 4 × 10⁻⁴ to 2.7 × 10⁻². Results show that the relative amount of REE bound to HA strongly increases with decreasing REE/C. A middle-REE (MREE) downward concavity is shown by patterns at high metal loading, whereas patterns at low metal loading display a regular increase from La to Lu. Humic Ion Model VI modelling are close to the experimental data variations, provided that (i) the ΔLK₂ parameter (i.e. the Model VI parameter taken into account the presence of strong but low density binding sites) is allowed to increase regularly from La to Lu (from 1.1 to 2.1) and (ii) the published log K_MA values (i.e. the REE-HA binding constants specific to Model VI) are slightly modified, in particular with respect to heavy REE. Modelling approach provided evidence that patterns with varying REE/C likely arises because REE binding to HA occurs through two types of binding sites in different density: (i) a few strong sites that preferentially complex the heavy REE and thus control the atterns at low REE/C; (ii) a larger amount of weaker binding sites that preferentially complex the middle-REE and thus control the pattern at high REE/C. Hence, metal loading exerts a major effect on HA-mediated REE binding, which could explain the diversity of published conditional constants for REE binding with HA. A literature survey suggests that the few strong sites activated at low REE/C could be multidentate carboxylic sites, or perhaps N-, or P-functional groups. Finally, an examination of the literature field data proposed that the described loading effect could account for much of the variation in REE patterns observed in natural organic-rich waters (DOC > 5 mg L⁻¹ and 4 ? pH ? 7).     

Hydrosedimentary records and Holocene environmental dynamics in the Yamé Valley (Mali,Sudano-Sahelian West Africa)

Research conducted in the Yamé Valley (Dogon Country, Mali) provides valuable information about the river systems and their Holocene evolution in Sudano-Sahelian West Africa. Past research in the region has relied primarily on marine and lacustrine records. The new results confirm correlation between palaeoclimatic fluctuations recorded in both the river system and in tropical African lakes. They offer a new continental milestone for understanding of the environmental repercussions of Holocene monsoon oscillations. These studies demonstrate the value of river systems as a palaeoenvironmental record and the role of palaeoclimatic and anthropogenic factors in the Holocene dynamics of Sudano-Sahelian hydrosystems.     

Origin and evolution of fluids from mud volcanoes in the Barbados accretionary complex

A large collection of fluids (54 interstitial fluids and four expelled fluids) were sampled at the Manon site, at the outer edge of the Barbados accretionary complex. These warm fluids (up to 20°C) are expelled by sub-marine (5000 mbsl) mud volcanoes consisting of diapirs (unchanneled flow) and diatremes (channeled).Chlorine stable isotope ratios of these fluids were measured by IRMS with a reproducibility of ± 0.05‰ (1σ) versus SMOC (Standard Mean Ocean Chloride).A large range of δ³⁷Cl between −5.3‰ and +0.1‰ is observed. Data from each volcanic structure describe a mixing between seawater and a low-δ³⁷Cl fluid. The whole set of data is interpreted as the result of a mixing between two deep components and seawater. The two deep fluids are chemically distinct (e.g., in Ca, Mg, K, Li, Sr and Br contents and Br/Cl ratio). They display low and significantly different ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios (0.707790 and 0.707892, respectively) and δ³⁷Cl values (−4.51 and −5.24‰, respectively).Physicochemical processes such as mineralogical transformation, diffusion, compaction or ion filtration are known to fractionate chlorine stable isotopes and can produce fluids with negative δ³⁷Cl values. Ion filtration due to sediment compaction appears to be the more likely process to explain the negative δ³⁷Cl values observed at the Manon site. A model for the generation of these signatures is proposed where a residual negative δ³⁷Cl fluid reservoir is created at the bottom of the prism or the sediment pile. Further compaction/fracturing and/or dewatering of the slab may flush out these fluids and focus them towards the décollement zone. Mixing between the fluids and ultimately with seawater and water released during gas hydrate destabilizations may explain the data set within the individual cores and between the different structures.