Including spatial distribution in a data‐driven rainfall‐runoff model to improve reservoir inflow forecasting in Taiwan

Multi‐step ahead inflow forecasting has a critical role to play in reservoir operation and management in Taiwan during typhoons as statutory legislation requires a minimum of 3‐h warning to be issued before any reservoir releases are made. However, the complex spatial and temporal heterogeneity of typhoon rainfall, coupled with a remote and mountainous physiographic context, makes the development of real‐time rainfall‐runoff models that can accurately predict reservoir inflow several hours ahead of time challenging. Consequently, there is an urgent, operational requirement for models that can enhance reservoir inflow prediction at forecast horizons of more than 3 h. In this paper, we develop a novel semi‐distributed, data‐driven, rainfall‐runoff model for the Shihmen catchment, north Taiwan. A suite of Adaptive Network‐based Fuzzy Inference System solutions is created using various combinations of autoregressive, spatially lumped radar and point‐based rain gauge predictors. Different levels of spatially aggregated radar‐derived rainfall data are used to generate 4, 8 and 12 sub‐catchment input drivers. In general, the semi‐distributed radar rainfall models outperform their less complex counterparts in predictions of reservoir inflow at lead times greater than 3 h. Performance is found to be optimal when spatial aggregation is restricted to four sub‐catchments, with up to 30% improvements in the performance over lumped and point‐based models being evident at 5‐h lead times. The potential benefits of applying semi‐distributed, data‐driven models in reservoir inflow modelling specifically, and hydrological modelling more generally, are thus demonstrated. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Density,porosity, mineralogy,and internal structure of cosmic dust and alteration of its properties during high‐velocity atmospheric entry

X‐ray microtomography (XMT), X‐ray diffraction (XRD), and magnetic hysteresis measurements were used to determine micrometeorite internal structure, mineralogy, crystallography, and physical properties at μm resolution. The study samples include unmelted, partially melted (scoriaceous), and completely melted (cosmic spherules) micrometeorites. This variety not only allows comparison of the mineralogy and porosity of these three micrometeorite types but also reveals changes in meteoroid properties during atmospheric entry at various velocities. At low entry velocities, meteoroids do not melt and their physical properties do not change. The porosity of unmelted micrometeorites varies considerably (0–12%) with one friable example having porosity around 50%. At higher velocities, the range of meteoroid porosity narrows, but average porosity increases (to 16–27%) due to volatile evaporation and partial melting (scoriaceous phase). Metal distribution seems to be mostly unaffected at this stage. At even higher entry velocities, complete melting follows the scoriaceous phase. Complete melting is accompanied by metal oxidation and redistribution, loss of porosity (1 ± 1%), and narrowing of the bulk (3.2 ± 0.5 g cm^?3) and grain (3.3 ± 0.5 g cm^?3) density range. Melted cosmic spherules with a barred olivine structure show an oriented crystallographic structure, whereas other subtypes do not.     

Travel time curves for complex inhomogeneous slightly anisotropic media

Summary The linearization approach is used to compute the travel times in inhomogeneous slightly anisotropic media. The basic formulae are outlined and their accuracy demonstrated in comparison with the exact solution based on the zero-order ray theory and the Backus formula (1965). The linearization is extended also to complex media with curved interfaces. The computer program for calculating travel times in 2D, inhomogeneous, slightly anisotropic, complex media is briefly described. The numerical results obtained for a realistic situation and various types of waves are presented to enable the effects of anisotropy and the effects of inhomogeneity on the resulting travel times to be compared.

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Evidence for delayed poleward expansion of North Atlantic surface waters during the last interglacial (MIS 5e)

The Last Interglacial (Marine Isotopic Stage or MIS 5e) surface ocean heat flux from the Rockall Basin (NE Atlantic) towards the Arctic Ocean was reconstructed by analysing dinoflagellate cyst (dinocyst) assemblages in four sediment cores. Together with records of stable isotopes and ice-rafted detritus, the assemblage data reflect the northward retreat of ice(berg)-laden waters and the gradual development towards interglacial conditions at the transition from the Saalian deglaciation (Termination II) into MIS 5e. At the Rockall Basin, this onset of the Last Interglacial is soon followed by the appearance of the thermophilic dinocyst species Spiniferites mirabilis, with relative abundances higher than those observed at present in the area. North of the Iceland-Scotland Ridge, however, S. mirabilis only appears in significant numbers during late MIS 5e, between ～118 and 116.5 ka. Hence, fully marine Last Interglacial conditions with most intense Atlantic surface water influence occurred during late MIS 5e in the Nordic seas, and consequently also farther north in the Arctic Ocean, and at times when northern hemisphere summer insolation was already significantly decreased. The stratigraphic position of this Late Interglacial optimum is supported by planktic foraminifers and contrasts with the timing of the early Holocene climatic optimum in this area. We interpret the delayed northward expansion of Atlantic waters towards the polar latitudes as a result of the Saalian ice sheet deglaciation and its specific impact on the subsequent water mass evolution in this region.     

Modelling the time‐dependent behaviour of granular material with hypoplasticity

This paper presents a constitutive model for time‐dependent behaviour of granular material. The model consists of 2 parts representing the inviscid and viscous behaviour of granular materials. The inviscid part is a rate‐independent hypoplastic constitutive model. The viscous part is represented by a rheological model, which contains a high‐order term denoting the strain acceleration. The proposed model is validated by simulating some element tests on granular soils. Our model is able to model not only the non‐isotach behaviour but also the 3 creep stages, namely, primary, secondary, and tertiary creep, in a unified way.     

Geochemical studies of the SUBO 18 (Enkingen) drill core and other impact breccias from the Ries crater,Germany

Suevite and melt breccia compositions in the boreholes Enkingen and Polsingen are compared with compositions of suevites from other Ries boreholes and surface locations and discussed in terms of implications for impact breccia genesis. No significant differences in average chemical compositions for the various drill cores or surface samples are noted. Compositions of suevite and melt breccia from southern and northeastern sectors of the Ries crater do not significantly differ. This is in stark contrast to the published variations between within‐crater and out‐of‐crater suevites from northern and southern sectors of the Bosumtwi impact structure, Ghana. Locally occurring alteration overprint on drill cores—especially strong on the carbonate‐impregnated suevite specimens of the Enkingen borehole—does affect the average compositions. Overall, the composition of the analyzed impact breccias from Ries are characterized by very little macroscopically or microscopically recognized sediment‐clast component; the clast populations of suevite and impact melt breccia are dominated consistently by granitic and intermediate granitoid components. The Polsingen breccia is significantly enriched in a dioritic clast component. Overall, chemical compositions are of intermediate composition as well, with dioritic‐granodioritic silica contents, and relatively small contributions from mafic target components. Selected suevite samples from the Enkingen core have elevated Ni, Co, Cr, and Ir contents compared with previously analyzed suevites from the Ries crater, which suggest a small meteoritic component. Platinum‐group element (PGE) concentrations for some of the enriched samples indicate somewhat elevated concentrations and near‐chondritic ratios of the most immobile PGE, consistent with an extraterrestrial contribution of 0.1–0.2% chondrite‐equivalent.     

The southern cape conductive belt (South Africa): Its composition, origin and tectonic significance

Magnetometer array studies have led to the discovery and mapping of the Southern Cape Conductive Belt (SCCB) crossing the southern tip of Africa from west to southeast coasts. The SCCB lies just south of the Namaqua-Natal Belt of cratonic rocks remobilized about 1000 m.y. B.P. It is shown that it coincides with a zone of weakness which has been exploited by three major geosynclinal accumulations over some 600 m.y. Relationships between the SCCB and the basement geochronology, geology and tectonics are considered in detail. These relationships support the view that the conductive belt was formed by an accumulation of marine sediments and oceanic lithosphere at the top of a Proterozoic subduction which stopped about 1000 to 800 m.y. B.P. Associated with this subduction we propose a Proterozoic range of Andean mountains, whose roots are now exposed in the Namaqua-Natal Belt. Later subduction further south, near the present south coast, is proposed to account for the intrusion, between the south coast and the SCCB, of the Cape Granites in the time interval 600-500 m.y. B.P. There is some evidence for a third, yet more distant, subduction episode off Permian Gondwanaland. After outlining this tectonic history, the paper turns to a closer examination of the hypothesis that the Southern Cape Conductive Belt consists of partly serpentinized basalt accumulated at the top of a Proterozoic subduction. A large static magnetic anomaly, which correlates with the SCCB over most of its length, is well fitted by a model which strongly supports this hypothesis. Bouguer gravity anomalies along western and central profiles likewise support the hypothesis. A discussion follows of the process of formation of the proposed block of serpentinized marine rocks, beginning with serpentinization of the crust near oceanic ridges by reaction of warm, porous, newly-extruded basalt with seawater convecting through it. The serpentinized basalt is stable at crustal temperatures and pressures and so is transported in the seafloor until it reaches a subduction, where it accumulates because of its low density. Examples of such accumulations are cited. Finally, it is shown that any iron in the olivine and pyroxene in the original basalt precipitates, when these silicates are hydrated to serpentine, as magnetite which is the dominant mineral conferring high electrical conductivity and high magnetic susceptibility on serpentinites. In particular the Beattie static magnetic anomaly requires, in our model calculation, a very high susceptibility readily attainable in basalt at 15–20% serpentinization. The authors know of no other rock able to provide this high susceptibility. A similar percentage of serpentinization provides the density required to model the gravity anomalies.     

A New GIScience Application for Visualized Natural Resources Management and Decision Support

This article presents two decision support plug‐ins in free GIS software: ArcGIS Explorer Desktop. The ubiquitous WebGIS Analysis Toolkit for Extensive Resources (uWATER) focuses on providing GIS analysis functions: spatial and attribute queries in the public services tool for users with limited access to commercial GIS software. The interface of uWATER is general enough to support decision‐making in numerous management issues in natural resources, economics and agriculture. The uWATER‐Pumping Assessment (uWATER‐PA) toolkit, on the other hand, is an extended package targeting the specific environmental issue of groundwater pumping impacts. The uWATER‐PA package is an excellent alternative to evaluating complex groundwater pumping assessment issues before investing significant time, labor, and funds in monitoring and detailed scientific study. It incorporates simulation of the physics of groundwater flow and user interaction into GIS software. A graphical user interface makes both data entry and interpretation of results intuitive to non‐technical individuals. Results are presented as colored drawdown maps and can be saved in GIS format for future dissemination. The impact of drawdown on existing wells can be characterized and mapped, through the use of uWATER's spatial query capabilities and the drawdown maps generated by uWATER‐PA.     

Geochemical characterization of Archaean amphibolites from the eastern part of Anshan–Benxi iron producing area,northeastern China: implication for tectonic setting of BIFs

The Anshan–Benxi iron producing area, which is located at the northeastern margin of the North China Craton, is the main distribution area of Archaean BIFs in China. In their eastern part, including the Gongchangling and Waitoushan deposits, BIFs mainly are hosted in the Archaean middle Anshan Group. Amphibolites are widely distributed in the iron‐bearing rock series, reflecting the tectonic setting of BIFs. Amphibolites not only have MORB‐like compositional characteristics, but also have island arc‐like ones, and they are consistent with back‐arc basin basalts (BABB). In the study area, the protolith of amphibolites belongs to Okinawa‐type BABB; it indicates that tectonic setting of BIFs is the intra‐continental back‐arc basin. In the study area, the formation of sedimentary basins for BIFs had been associated with oceanic plate subduction. Amphibolites from Gongchangling deposit are characterized by relative enrichments in LILE and LREE, and depletions in HFSE. This indicates that they had a relatively large influence of subduction in their formation. Amphibolites from Waitoushan deposit are characterized by relative enrichments in LILE without conspicuous depletions in HFSE, indicating relatively low subduction rates. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.