Lateral heterogeneities in the upper and mid-mantle conductivity in Argentina

Regional studies of Sq variations measured at five permanent observatories in Argentina were performed to estimate the distribution of the electrical conductivity of the upper and mid-mantle, reaching a depth of approximately 800 km. After separating the total field into its parts of external and internal origin, the in duced field was modeled, applying two-dimensional techniques. Additionally, induction arrows and an equivalent apparent resistivity curve were calculated A north-south heterogeneity was detected, showing an increase of the conductivity of the shallower layers north of the profile, which may be related to the presence of high volcanic activity in the area.Also at CONICET (Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas).     

Using stochastic state‐space modelling to specify and reduce hydrograph error

A Bayesian post‐processor is used to generate a representation of the likely hydrograph forecast flow error distribution using raingauge and radar input to a stochastic catchment model and its deterministic equivalent. A hydrograph ensemble is so constructed. Experiments are analysed using the model applied to the River Croal in north‐west England. It is found that for rainfall input to the model having errors less than 3mm h^?1, corresponding to about a 15% error in peak flow, the stochastic model outperforms the deterministic model. The range of hydrographs associated with the different model simulations and the measured hydrographs are compared. The significant improvement possible using a stochastic approach is demonstrated for a specific case study, although the mean hydrograph derived using the stochastic model has an error range associated with it. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Use of incipient motion data for backward erosion piping models

Backward erosion piping involves the gradual removal of granular material under the action of water flow from the foundation of a dam or levee, whereby shallow pipes are formed that grow in the direction opposite to the flow. This pipe-forming process can ultimately lead to failure of a water-retaining structure and is considered one of the most important failure mechanisms for dikes and levees in the Netherlands and the United States. Modeling of this mechanism requires the assessment of hydraulic conditions in the pipe, which are controlled by the particle equilibrium at the pipe wall. Since the pipe's dimensions are controlled by the inflow to the pipe from the porous medium, the flow through the pipe is thought to be laminar for fine- to medium-grained sands. The literature provides data for incipient motion in laminar flow, which is reviewed here and complemented with data from backward erosion experiments. The experiments illustrate the applicability of the laminar incipient motion data to determine the erosion pipe dimensions and corresponding pipe hydraulics for fine- to medium-grained sands, for the purpose of backward erosion piping modeling.     

Do mixing models with different input requirement yield similar streamflow source contributions? Case study: A tropical montane catchment

Hydrogeochemical based mixing models have been successfully used to investigate the composition and source identification of streamflow. The applicability of these models is limited due to the high costs associated with data collection and the hydrogeochemical analysis of water samples. Fortunately, a variety of mixing models exist, requiting different amount of data as input, and in data scarce regions it is likely that preference will be given to models with the lowest requirement of input data. An unanswered question is if models with high or low input requirement are equally accurate. To this end, the performance of two mixing models with different input requirement, the mixing model analysis (MMA) and the end-member mixing analysis (EMMA), were verified on a tropical montane headwater catchment (21.7 km²) in the Ecuadorian Andes. Nineteen hydrogeochemical tracers were measured on water samples collected weekly during 3 years in streamflow and eight potential water sources or end-members (precipitation, lake water, soil water from different horizons and springs). Results based on 6 conservative tracers, revealed that EMMA (using all tracers) and MMA (using pair-combinations out of the 6 conservative ones), identified the same end-members: rainfall, soil water and spring water., as well as, similar contribution fractions to streamflow from rainfall 21.9% and 21.4%, soil water 52.7% and 52.3%, and spring water 26.1% and 28.7%, respectively. Our findings show that a hydrogeochemical mixing model requiring a few tracers can provide similar outcomes than models demanding more tracers as input data. This underlines the value of a preliminary detailed hydrogeochemical characterization as basis to derive the most cost-efficient monitoring strategy.     

Developing the Commons: The Contradictions of Growth in Exurban Montana

Property development in exurban areas has the capacity to undermine the amenity values that undergird that development. Predicated on that contradiction, this research seeks to explain the emergence of local, informal, planning-based regulations in the traditionally antiregulatory context of rural Montana. Adopting both the insights of institutional common property theory and those of critical materialist analysis of economic growth, the work reconciles accounts of development as inherently ecologically self-destructive with those stressing creative development and adoption of rules for collective self-governance. Using a detailed case analysis of a Montana county undergoing rapid growth, it examines what drives localized land use regulation, what controls are enacted, and whether such controls are resisted or facilitated by development capital. Findings suggest that informal regulations seek to control externalities of development on valuable amenity commons and that they are adopted with the acceptance, if not encouragement, of the development community. These fragile instruments are vulnerable to opposition, however, highlighting problems of more general relevance: Growth depends on a deregulated development regime, which produces externalities that undermine the valorization of property. Localized regulatory planning regimes are therefore both a solution to contradictions inherent in growth and a potential source of future planning problems.     

Meteoritic material at four Canadian impact craters

Eleven impact melt and 6 basement rock samples from 4 craters were analyzed by neutron activation for Au, Co, Cr, Fe, Ge, Ir, Ni, Os, Pd, Re and Se. Wanapitei Lake, Ontario: the impact melts show uniform enrichments corresponding to 1–2% C1-chondrite material. Interelement ratios ($\text{Co}\text{Cr}$, $\text{Ni}\text{Cr}$, $\text{Ni}\text{Ir}$) suggest that the impacting body was a Cl-, C2-, or LL-chondrite. Nicholson Lake, North West Territory: Ni, Cr and Co are distinctly more enriched than Ir and Au which tentatively suggests an olivine-rich achondrite (nakhlite or ureilite). Gow Lake, Saskatchewan and Mistastin, Labrador: small enrichments in Ir and Ni; both the low $\text{Ir}\text{Ni}$ ratios and low Cr content suggest iron meteorites, but the signals are too weak for conclusive identification.A tentative comparison of meteoritic signatures at 10 large, ≥4km craters and their presumed celestial counterparts (13 Apollo and Amor asteroids) shows more irons and achondrites among known projectile types, and a preponderance of S-type objects, having no known meteoritic equivalent, among asteroids. It is not yet clear that these differences are significant, in view of the tentative nature of the crater identifications (achondrites in particular), and the limited statistics.     

An Atlas of ShakeMaps and population exposure catalog for earthquake loss modeling

We present an Atlas of ShakeMaps and a catalog of human population exposures to moderate-to-strong ground shaking (EXPO-CAT) for recent historical earthquakes (1973–2007). The common purpose of the Atlas and exposure catalog is to calibrate earthquake loss models to be used in the US Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER). The full ShakeMap Atlas currently comprises over 5,600 earthquakes from January 1973 through December 2007, with almost 500 of these maps constrained—to varying degrees—by instrumental ground motions, macroseismic intensity data, community internet intensity observations, and published earthquake rupture models. The catalog of human exposures is derived using current PAGER methodologies. Exposure to discrete levels of shaking intensity is obtained by correlating Atlas ShakeMaps with a global population database. Combining this population exposure dataset with historical earthquake loss data, such as PAGER-CAT, provides a useful resource for calibrating loss methodologies against a systematically-derived set of ShakeMap hazard outputs. We illustrate two example uses for EXPO-CAT; (1) simple objective ranking of country vulnerability to earthquakes, and; (2) the influence of time-of-day on earthquake mortality. In general, we observe that countries in similar geographic regions with similar construction practices tend to cluster spatially in terms of relative vulnerability. We also find little quantitative evidence to suggest that time-of-day is a significant factor in earthquake mortality. Moreover, earthquake mortality appears to be more systematically linked to the population exposed to severe ground shaking (Modified Mercalli Intensity VIII+). Finally, equipped with the full Atlas of ShakeMaps, we merge each of these maps and find the maximum estimated peak ground acceleration at any grid point in the world for the past 35 years. We subsequently compare this “composite ShakeMap” with existing global hazard models, calculating the spatial area of the existing hazard maps exceeded by the combined ShakeMap ground motions. In general, these analyses suggest that existing global, and regional, hazard maps tend to overestimate hazard. Both the Atlas of ShakeMaps and EXPO-CAT have many potential uses for examining earthquake risk and epidemiology. All of the datasets discussed herein are available for download on the PAGER Web page (). T. I. Allen and M. G. Hearne—contracted through Synergetics Incorporated.     

Evidence for MTBE in Heating Oil

"Contamination of heating oil with MTBE could result in increasing the environmental impact of subsurface heating oil releases."     

Monitoring and Modeling of Syringodium filiforme (Manatee Grass) in Southern Indian River Lagoon

Decreased salinity and submarine light associated with hurricanes of 2004?C2005 impacted seagrass habitats in the Florida coastal zone. A combination of salinities ??20 and light attenuation ??1.5?m^?1 resulting from the freshwater discharge in 2005 were among the drivers for a widespread decrease in the coverage and biomass of Syringodium filiforme (manatee grass) in 2006. These observations provided an opportunity to develop and apply a modeling framework to simulate responses of S. filiforme to variable water quality. The framework connects water column variables to field monitoring of seagrass abundance and salinity growth response experiments. The base model was calibrated with macrophyte abundance observed in southern Indian River Lagoon (IRL) from 2002 to 2007 and tested against shoot data from a different time (1997?C2002) and nearby location in the IRL. Model shoot biomass (gC?m^?2) was similar to field observations (r ²?=?0.70) while responding to monthly seasonal fluctuations in salinity and light throughout the 6-year simulations. Field and model results indicated that S. filiforme growth and survival were sensitive to, and increased with, rising salinity throughout 2007. This modeling study emphasizes that discharge, salinity, and submarine light are inter-dependent variables affecting South Florida seagrass habitats on seasonal to inter-annual time scales.     

The evolution of the terrestrial-terminating Irish Sea glacier during the last glaciation

Here we reconstruct the last advance to maximum limits and retreat of the Irish Sea Glacier (ISG), the only land-terminating ice lobe of the western British Irish Ice Sheet. A series of reverse bedrock slopes rendered proglacial lakes endemic, forming time-transgressive moraine- and bedrock-dammed basins that evolved with ice marginal retreat. Combining, for the first time on glacial sediments, optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) bleaching profiles for cobbles with single grain and small aliquot OSL measurements on sands, has produced a coherent chronology from these heterogeneously bleached samples. This chronology constrains what is globally an early build-up of ice during late Marine Isotope Stage 3 and Greenland Stadial (GS) 5, with ice margins reaching south Lancashire by 30 ± 1.2 ka, followed by a 120-km advance at 28.3 ± 1.4 ka reaching its 26.5 ± 1.1 ka maximum extent during GS-3. Early retreat during GS-3 reflects piracy of ice sources shared with the Irish-Sea Ice Stream (ISIS), starving the ISG. With ISG retreat, an opportunistic readvance of Welsh ice during GS-2 rode over the ISG moraines occupying the space vacated, with ice margins oscillating within a substantial glacial over-deepening. Our geomorphological chronosequence shows a glacial system forced by climate but mediated by piracy of ice sources shared with the ISIS, changing flow regimes and fronting environments.