Quantification of the 1998–1999 explosion sequence at Popocatépetl volcano,Mexico

The sequence of large Vulcanian explosions occurring at the andesitic Popocatépetl volcano, Mexico during November 1998 to April 1999 was studied. The size of 26 largest explosions was estimated from broadband seismic records at the distance of 4 km from the crater. The sequence began with the largest explosion (E = 2.6 × 10¹² J) occurring on 25 November at 08:05, and following largest daily explosions were characterized by gradual decrease in the energy. The energy of 20 large (E ≥ 10¹¹ J) explosions was distributed as Student's t-distribution with a geometrical mean Log E = 11.81 (J).     

Headwaters drive streamflow and lowland tracer export in a large-scale humid tropical catchment

Headwaters are generally assumed to contribute the majority of water to downstream users, but how much water, of what quality and where it is generated are rarely known in the humid tropics. Here, using monthly monitoring in the data scarce (2,370 km²) San Carlos catchment in northeastern Costa Rica, we determined runoff-area relationships linked to geochemical and isotope tracers. We established 46 monitoring sites covering the full range of climatic, land use and geological gradients in the catchment. Regression and cluster analysis revealed unique spatial patterns and hydrologically functional landscape units. These units were used for seasonal and annual Bayesian tracer mixing models to assess spatial water source contributions to the outlet. Generally, the Bayesian mixing analysis showed that the chemical and isotopic imprint at the outlet is throughout the year dominated by the adjacent lowland catchments (68%) with much less tracer influence from the headwaters. However, the headwater catchments contributed the bulk of water and tracers to the outlet during the dry season (>50%) despite covering less than half of the total catchment area. Additionally, flow volumes seemed to be linearly scaled by area maintaining a link between the headwaters and the outlet particularly during high flows of the rainy season. Stable isotopes indicated mean recharge elevations above the mean catchment altitude, which further supports that headwaters were the primary source of downstream water. Our spatially detailed “snap-shot” sampling enabled a viable alternative source of large-scale hydrological process knowledge in the humid tropics with limited data availability.     

Herbicides implicated as the cause of severe mangrove dieback in the Mackay region, NE Australia: consequences for marine plant habitats of the GBR World Heritage Area

Herbicides, particularly diuron, were correlated with severe and widespread dieback of the dominant mangrove, Avicennia marina (Forsk.) Vierh. var. eucalyptifolia (Val.) N.C. Duke (Avicenniaceae), its reduced canopy condition, and declines in seedling health within three neighbouring estuaries in the Mackay region of NE Australia. This unusual species-specific dieback, first observed in the early 1990s, had gotten notably worse by 2002 to affect >30 km(2) of mangroves in at least five adjacent estuaries in the region. Over the past century, agricultural production has responded well to the demands of increasing population with improvements in farm efficiency assisted by significant increases in the use of agricultural chemicals. However, with regular and episodic river flow events, these chemicals have sometimes found their way into estuarine and nearshore water and sediments where their effects on marine habitats have been largely unquantified. Investigations over the last three years in the Mackay region provide compelling evidence of diuron, and possibly other agricultural herbicides, as the most likely cause of the severe and widespread mangrove dieback. The likely consequences of such dieback included declines in coastal water quality with increased turbidity, nutrients and sediment deposition, as well as further dispersal of the toxic chemicals. The implications of such findings are immense since they describe not only the serious deterioration of protected and beneficial mangrove habitat but also the potential for significant direct and indirect effects on other highly-valued estuarine and marine habitats in the region, including seagrass beds and coral reefs of the Great Barrier Reef lagoon. This article reviews all key findings and observations to date and describes the essential correlative and causative evidence.     

Gas/solid carbon branching ratios in surface‐mediated reactions and the incorporation of carbonaceous material into planetesimals

We report the ratio of the initial carbon available as CO that forms gas‐phase compounds compared to the fraction that deposits as a carbonaceous solid (the gas/solid branching ratio) as a function of time and temperature for iron, magnetite, and amorphous iron silicate smoke catalysts during surface‐mediated reactions in an excess of hydrogen and in the presence of N₂. This fraction varies from more than 99% for an amorphous iron silicate smoke at 673 K to less than 40% for a magnetite catalyst at 873 K. The CO not converted into solids primarily forms methane, ethane, water, and CO₂, as well as a very wide range of organic molecules at very low concentration. Carbon deposits do not form continuous coatings on the catalytic surfaces, but instead form extremely high surface area per unit volume “filamentous” structures. While these structures will likely form more slowly but over much longer times in protostellar nebulae than in our experiments due to the much lower partial pressure of CO, such fluffy coatings on the surfaces of chondrules or calcium aluminum inclusions could promote grain–grain sticking during low‐velocity collisions.     

Picophytoplankton: A major contributor to planktonic biomass and primary production in a eutrophic,river-dominated estuary

Biomass and primary productivity of picophytoplankton (PP; phytoplankton <3 μm) and larger phytoplankton (>3 μm) were determined during an annual cycle along the salinity gradient in North Carolina’s Neuse River Estuary (NRE), a eutrophic, microtidal estuary. The PP were a major component of total phytoplankton biomass and productivity, contributing ∼35–44% of the total chlorophyll a (Chl a) and 42–55% of the total primary productivity. Chl a and productivity of PP decreased from the upper to lower estuary, although the PP contribution relative to larger phytoplankton remained nearly constant. Significant PP growth occurred in the spring, but PP productivity and biomass were maximal in summer. PP productivity and biomass were positively correlated with temperature and dissolved inorganic phosphorus concentrations, which were maximal in summer due to release from sediments. Biomass and productivity of PP and >3 μm phytoplankton were also positively correlated, suggesting that growth conditions favoring the onset of blooms of larger phytoplankton species will similarly affect PP. High PP productivity and biomass in the NRE support the notion that PP play an important role in the production and eutrophication potentials of this estuary. High PP productivity and biomass have been noted in several other temperate estuaries, all sharing a common feature with the NRE—long residence time. These findings challenge the assumption that PP relative importance should be minimal in eutrophic systems.     

Automatic GIS-based system for volcanic hazard assessment

This paper presents an automatic system for the elaboration of volcanic hazard maps and scenarios. The methodology used for the generation of both maps is based on the use of numerical simulation of eruptive processes. The system has been developed in a Geographical Information System (GIS) framework, where models for the numerical simulation of different volcanic hazards have been integrated. The user can select in a toolbar one hazard and then decide whether to generate a scenario map (usually with a unique vent) or a hazard map (generally with a broader source area). Once the input parameters are selected, the system automatically generates the corresponding map. The system also incorporates a module to determine the spatial probability of vent opening, as this could be an important parameter for the computation of hazard maps. The tool has been designed in such a way that the inclusion of new numerical models and functionalities is rather easy. Each numerical model is programmed and implemented as an independent program that is launched from the system and, when it finishes the computation, returns the control to the GIS, where the results are shown. This structure allows that further analyses (specifically, risk analyses, that use as an input a hazard or a scenario map), could be also automated inside the system. Additional information, including tutorial and downloadable files can be found in www.gvb-csic.es.     

Virtual tools for volcanic crisis management, and evacuation decision support: applications to El Chichón volcano (Chiapas, México)

Decision making regarding massive evacuation of a population threatened by a probable volcanic eruption is a major problem in crisis management. Such a decision is general on the number of people to be evacuated, available resources and infrastructure, quantity and quality of the escape routes and shelters, and the economic, social and political costs involved in the operation, coupled with the updated information provided by scientists about the forecast of future activity and probable eruption scenarios. Knowing time-lapse between the evacuation decision-making time and the time in which the evacuation is completed is another critical issue that must be carefully considered in densely populated areas. In such areas, it is really important to estimate in advance this time-lapse, as the forecast must be released with enough time to complete all the evacuation process before the destructive manifestations of the eruption begin. In this context, evacuation planning is a crucial component of emergency management. It is common for Emergency Plans to include pre-established strategies. However, an evacuation procedure should be flexible, depending on the above-mentioned timing, and on the decisions, evacuation schemes, environmental characteristics and other factors. In this work, several hazard models such as a lava flow model based on a Monte Carlo algorithm, a pyroclastic density current based on energy cone model, a semi-empirical inversion model to estimate the thickness of ash deposits, and all available information about the El Chión volcano have been used to obtain the area that should be evacuated in case of an eruption. Then, multiple evacuation strategies at El Chichón volcano have been designed, considering not only the characteristics of the eruption forecast, but also environmental factors (e.g., weather conditions) and social factors (e.g., tourism and farming seasons). The variable scale evacuation model has been used to estimate the evacuation time. In the paper, those virtual tools are briefly described as well as the information obtained from the drill of 2009. In addition to the optimization of evacuation under variable conditions and situations, one of the main objectives of this work is to provide a reliable estimation of the mitigation action time, for an Emergency Plan.     

Biomarkers in croakers Micropogonias furnieri (Teleostei: Sciaenidae) from polluted and non-polluted areas from the Patos Lagoon estuary (Southern Brazil): evidences of genotoxic and immunological effects

Biomarkers of exposure and effect of pollutants were analyzed in croakers Micropogonias furnieri (Teleostei: Sciaenidae) captured in winter and summer in a polluted and in a non-polluted site at the Patos Lagoon estuary (Southern Brazil). Catalase and glutathione S-transferase activities (exposure biomarkers) and lipid peroxidation (effect biomarker) were analyzed in liver samples. Other two effect biomarkers were also studied: blood cells DNA damage (through comet assay and micronucleus test) and respiratory burst measurements. In a broad view, results point to an important seasonal variation of the biochemical biomarkers analyzed. However, data obtained clearly indicate that croakers collected in winter at the polluted site were subjected to a level of clastogenic agents sufficient to generate irreversible genetic damages (mutations) and impair the fish immune system.