Interannual climate variability in South America: impacts on seasonal precipitation, extreme events, and possible effects of climate change

Interannual variability is an important modulator of synoptic and intraseasonal variability in South America. This paper seeks to characterize the main modes of interannual variability of seasonal precipitation and some associated mechanisms. The impact of this variability on the frequency of extreme rainfall events and the possible effect of anthropogenic climate change on this variability are reviewed. The interannual oscillations of the annual total precipitation are mainly due to the variability in austral autumn and summer. While autumn is the dominant rainy season in the northern part of the continent, where the variability is highest (especially in the northeastern part), summer is the rainy season over most of the continent, thanks to a summer monsoon regime. In the monsoon season, the strongest variability occurs near the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ), which is one of the most important features of the South American monsoon system. In all seasons but summer, the most important source of variability is ENSO (El Ni?o Southern Oscillation), although ENSO shows a great contribution also in summer. The ENSO impact on the frequency of extreme precipitation events is also important in all seasons, being generally even more significant than the influence on seasonal rainfall totals. Climate change associated with increasing emission of greenhouse gases shows potential to impact seasonal amounts of precipitation in South America, but there is still great uncertainty associated with the projected changes, since there is not much agreement among the models’ outputs for most regions in the continent, with the exception of southeastern South America and southern Andes. Climate change can also impact the natural variability modes of seasonal precipitation associated with ENSO.     

Coupled penetrometer, MBES and ADCP assessments of tidal variations in surface sediment layer characteristics along active subaqueous dunes, Danish Wadden Sea

In-situ geotechnical measurements of surface sediments were carried out along large subaqueous dunes in the Knudedyb tidal inlet channel in the Danish Wadden Sea using a small free-falling penetrometer. Vertical profiles showed a typical stratification pattern with a resolution of ∼1 cm depicting a thin surface layer of low sediment strength and a stiffer substratum below (quasi-static bearing capacity equivalent: 1–3 kPa in the top layer, 20–140 kPa in the underlying sediment; thickness of the top layer ca. 5–8 cm). Observed variations in the thickness and strength of the surface layer during a tidal cycle were compared to mean current velocities (measured using an acoustic Doppler current profiler, ADCP), high-resolution bathymetry (based on multibeam echo sounding, MBES) and qualitative estimates of suspended sediment distributions in the water column (estimated from ADCP backscatter intensity). The results revealed an ebb dominance in sediment remobilization, and a general accretion of the bed towards low water. A loose top layer occurred throughout the tidal cycle, likely influenced by bedload transport and small events of suspended sediment resettlement (thickness: 6 ± 2 cm). Furthermore, this layer showed a significant increase in thickness (e.g. from 8 cm to 16 cm) related to periods of overall deposition. These findings imply that dynamic penetrometers can conveniently serve to (1) quantify potentially mobile sediments by determining the thickness of a loose sediment surface layer, (2) unravel sediment strength development in potentially mobile sediments and (3) identify sediment accumulation. Such data are an important complement and add a new geotechnical perspective during investigations of sediment remobilization processes in highly dynamic coastal environments.     

Classification from Landsat TM of Indurated Volcanic Materials (tepetates) of the Mexican Neo‐volcanique Belt

Abstract

Tepetates, altered indurated and sterile volcanic tuffs, are located among the neo‐volcanic belt in central Mexico. They are divided into three classes according to the erosion level: outcrop tepetates, discontinuous tepetates (in process of erosion), and underlying tepetates (related to fragile areas with high erosion risk). For local communities and peasants, the existence of tepetates is a heavy constraint, with the impossibility to cultivate the land as it is. In order to know the localization and extension of tepetates, we experimented with various classification techniques of a Landsat Thematic Mapper satellite image. Masking techniques were used, assisted both by a DEM and photo interpretation, in addition to radiometric segmentation to obtain a map of tepetates in a study area. The resulting map showed the location of outcrop tepetates well, in agreement with existing soil maps, but underestimated underlying tepetates and high‐risk erosion localities, due mainly to the heterogeneity of the classes at the scale used (30 m pixel).     

The minimum gap-opening planet mass in an irradiated circumstellar accretion disc

We consider the minimum mass planet, as a function of radius, that is capable of opening a gap in an α-accretion disc. We estimate that a half-Jupiter mass planet can open a gap in a disc with accretion rate     for viscosity parameter  α= 0.01  , and solar mass and luminosity. The minimum mass is approximately proportional to     . This estimate can be used to rule out the presence of massive planets in gapless accretion discs. We identify two radii at which an inwardly migrating planet may become able to open a gap and so slow its migration; the radius at which the heating from viscous dissipation is similar to that from stellar radiation in a flared disc, and the radius at which the disc becomes optically thin in a self-shadowed disc. In the inner portions of the disc, we find that the minimum planet mass required to open a gap is only weakly dependent on radius. If a migrating planet is unable to open a gap by the time it reaches either of the transition radii, then it is likely to be lost on to the star. If a gap-opening planet cuts off disc accretion allowing the formation of a central hole or clearing in the disc then we would estimate that the clearing radius would approximately be proportional to the stellar mass.     

Large microplastic particles in sediments of tributaries of the River Thames,UK – Abundance,sources and methods for effective quantification

Sewage effluent input and population were chosen as predictors of microplastic presence in sediments at four sites in the River Thames basin (UK). Large microplastic particles (1 mm–4 mm) were extracted using a stepwise approach to include visual extraction, flotation and identification using Raman spectroscopy. Microplastics were found at all four sites. One site had significantly higher numbers of microplastics than other sites, average 66 particles 100 g^? 1, 91% of which were fragments. This site was downstream of a storm drain outfall receiving urban runoff; many of the fragments at this site were determined to be derived of thermoplastic road-surface marking paints. At the remaining three sites, fibres were the dominant particle type. The most common polymers identified included polypropylene, polyester and polyarylsulphone. This study describes two major new findings: presence of microplastic particles in a UK freshwater system and identification of road marking paints as a source of microplastics.

The effect of U(VI) bioreduction kinetics on subsequent reoxidation of biogenic U(IV)

Microbially mediated in situ reduction of soluble U(VI) to insoluble U(IV) (as UO₂) has been proposed as a means of preventing the migration of that radionuclide with groundwater, but preventing the oxidative resolubilization of U has proven difficult. We hypothesized that relatively slow rates of U(VI) bioreduction would yield larger UO₂ precipitates that would be more resistant to oxidation than those produced by rapid U(VI) bioreduction. We manipulated U(VI) bioreduction rates by varying the density of Shewanella putrefaciens CN32 added to U(VI) containing solutions with lactate as an electron donor. Characterization of biogenic UO₂ particles by extended X-ray absorption fine-structure spectroscopy and transmission electron microscopy revealed that UO₂ nanoparticles formed by relatively slow rates of U(VI) reduction were larger and more highly aggregated than those formed by relatively rapid U(VI) reduction. UO₂ particles formed at various rates were incubated under a variety of abiotically and biologically oxidizing conditions. In all cases, UO₂ that was formed by relatively slow U(VI) reduction was oxidized at a slower rate and to a lesser extent than UO₂ formed by relatively rapid U(VI) bioreduction, suggesting that the stability of UO₂ in situ may be enhanced by stimulation of relatively slow rates of U(VI) reduction.     

Extra-tropical cyclonic/anticyclonic activity in North-Eastern Pacific and air temperature extremes in Western North America

Synoptic extra-tropical cyclone and anticyclone trajectories have been constructed from mean daily sea level pressure (SLP) data using a new automated scheme. Frequency, intensity and trajectory characteristics of these transients have been summarized to form indices describing wintertime cyclonic and anticyclonic activity over the North-Eastern Pacific (east of 170°W) during 1950–2001. During this period, the strength of anticyclones gradually diminished and their frequency became more variable, while cyclones intensified in a discrete shift with deeper lows and further southerly trajectories occurring since the mid-1970s. These changes in synoptic transients translate into anomalously low seasonal mean SLP in the Aleutian Low, a low-level circulation anomaly consistent with the positive phase of the North Pacific Decadal Oscillation, with positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies along the west coast of North America and negative in the central North Pacific Ocean. A link between cyclonic/anticyclonic activity and tropical SST anomalies also exists, but this link only becomes significant after the mid-1970s, a period that coincides with more southerly cyclone trajectories. Southward excursions of mid-latitude cyclones during El Niño/positive NPO winters accomplish the northward advection of tropical air and discourage the southward penetration of polar air masses associated with transient anticyclones. Naturally, these changes in cyclonic/anticyclonic activity directly impact surface air temperatures, especially at night. We document these profound impacts on observed wintertime minimum temperatures over Western North America.     

Analysis of tidal marsh vegetation patterns in two Georgia estuaries using aerial photography and GIS

Aerial photographs and GIS analysis were used to map the distribution of tidal marsh vegetation along the salinity gradients of the estuaries of the Altamaha and Satilla Rivers in coastal Georgia. Vegetation maps were constructed from 1993 U.S. Geological Survey Digital Orthophoto Quarter Quads, 1∶77,000-scale color infrared photographs taken in 1974 and 1∶24,000-scale black and white photographs taken in 1953, Changes between years were identified using a GIS overlay analysis. Four vegetation classifications were identified and groundtruthed with field surveys: salt marsh (areas containing primarilySpartina alterniflora), brackish marsh (Spartina cynosuroides andS. alterniflora), Juncus (Juncus roemerianus), and fresh marsh (Zizania aquatica, Zizaniopsis miliacae, and others). There was no evidence for an upstream shift in marsh vegetation along the longitudinal axis of either estuary over the time frame of this analysis, which implies there has not been a long-term increase in salinity. Although the inland extent of each marsh zone was further upstream in the Satilla than the Altamaha, they corresponded to similar average high tide salinities in each estuary: areas classified as salt marsh occurred from the mouth up to where average high tide salinity in the water was approximately 15 psu;Juncus ranged from 21 to 1 psu; brackish marsh ranged from 15 to 1 psu; and fresh marsh was upstream of 1 psu. Approximately 63% of the 6,786 ha of tidal marsh vegetation mapped in the Altamaha and 75% of the 10,220 ha mapped in the Satilla remained the same in all 3 yr.Juncus was the dominant classification in the intermediate regions of both estuaries, and shifts between areas classified asJuncus and either brackish or salt marsh constituted the primary vegetation change between 1953 and 1993 (87% of the changes observed in the Altamaha and 95% of those in the Satilla). This analysis suggests that the broad distribution of tidal marsh vegetation along these two estuaries is driven by salinity, but that at the local scale these are dynamic systems with a larger number of factors affecting the frequently changing borders of vegetation patches.