Projected future changes in tropical cyclone-related wave climate in the North Atlantic

Tropical cyclones are a major hazard for numerous countries surrounding the tropical-to-subtropical North Atlantic sub-basin including the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. Their intense winds, which can exceed 300 km h⁻¹, can cause serious damage, particularly along coastlines where the combined action of waves, currents and low atmospheric pressure leads to storm surge and coastal flooding. This work presents future projections of North Atlantic tropical cyclone-related wave climate. A new configuration of the ARPEGE-Climat global atmospheric model on a stretched grid reaching ~ 14 km resolution to the north-east of the eastern Caribbean is able to reproduce the distribution of tropical cyclone winds, including Category 5 hurricanes. Historical (1984–2013, 5 members) and future (2051–2080, 5 members) simulations with the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario are used to drive the MFWAM (Météo-France Wave Action Model) spectral wave model over the Atlantic basin during the hurricane season. An intermediate 50-km resolution grid is used to propagate mid-latitude swells into a higher 10-km resolution grid over the tropical cyclone main development region. Wave model performance is evaluated over the historical period with the ERA5 reanalysis and satellite altimetry data. Future projections exhibit a modest but widespread reduction in seasonal mean wave heights in response to weakening subtropical anticyclone, yet marked increases in tropical cyclone-related wind sea and extreme wave heights within a large region extending from the African coasts to the North American continent.

     

Climate-driven migration: prioritizing cultural resources threatened by secondary impacts of climate change

Natural Hazards - Archaeological sites are increasingly threatened by primary impacts of climate change, including sea-level rise, flooding, and erosion. These important sites represent cultural...     

Visible–near infrared spectral indices for mapping mineralogy and chemistry with OSIRIS‐REx

The primary objective of the Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, and Security–Regolith Explorer (OSIRIS‐REx) mission is to return to Earth a pristine sample of carbonaceous material from the primitive asteroid (101955) Bennu. To support compositional mapping of Bennu as part of sample site selection and characterization, we tested 95 spectral indices on visible to near infrared laboratory reflectance data from minerals and carbonaceous meteorites. Our aim was to determine which indices reliably identify spectral features of interest. Most spectral indices had high positive detection rates when applied to spectra of pure, single‐component materials. The meteorite spectra have fewer and weaker absorption features and, as a result, fewer detections with the spectral indices. Indices targeting absorptions at 0.7 and 2.7–3 μm, which are attributable to hydrated minerals, were most successful for the meteorites. Based on these results, we identified a set of 17 indices that are most likely to be useful at Bennu. These indices detect olivines, pyroxenes, carbonates, water/OH‐bearing minerals, serpentines, ferric minerals, and organics. Particle size and albedo are known to affect band depth but had a negligible impact on interpretive success with spectral indices. Preliminary analysis of the disk‐integrated Bennu spectrum with these indices is consistent with expectations given the observed absorption near 3 μm. Our study prioritizes spectral indices to be used for OSIRIS‐REx spectral analysis and mapping and informs the reliability of all index‐derived data products, including a science value map for sample site selection.     

Neutral aldoses as source indicators for marine snow

The chemical characteristics of aggregating material in the marine environment are largely unknown. We investigated neutral aldose (NA) abundance and composition in aggregation of marine snow and other organic matter (OM) size fractions in the field. Four sample sets were fractionated using membrane filtration and ultrafiltration into the following size fractions: particulate material, high-molecular-weight (HMW) material, and low-molecular-weight (LMW) material. We also collected three sample sets of marine-snow aggregates. Each sample set contained small, medium, and large aggregate size fractions and each size fraction consisted of 25–50 aggregates. For 7 marine-snow samples and for each water-sample size fraction, we determined monomeric and polymeric NA concentration, NA yield (amount of NA-C normalized to organic carbon), and composition; total organic carbon (TOC) concentration; transparent exopolymer particles (TEP) concentration, and TEP propensity (TEP concentration after inducing TEP formation in filtered samples). This is the first study to include compound-specific NA determinations on these four marine OM size fractions.The mass balances of organic carbon and NA indicated that there were no serious contamination or loss problems. Concentrations, yields, and NA mol fractions in water samples were similar to results from other studies. Glucose and galactose had the highest relative abundance in all size fractions. The NA yield increased with increasing molecular weight or particle size for all fractions except marine snow. The NA yield increased in the order: LMW< marine snow< HMW< particles. Marine snow had a higher average NA yield than the LMW fraction, but lower than particle and HMW-fractions. This indicates that OM in marine snow could have been diagenetically derived from particulate and HMW-fractions, that is, marine snow may include material from the particulate and the colloidal phase.TEP concentration or TEP propensity was positively correlated with concentrations of all individual NAs as well as the sum NA concentrations, indicating that TEP contains neutral sugars in addition to the acidic polysaccharides stained in the determination of TEP concentrations.Despite the relatively low NA yield in marine snow, marine snow was enriched in NA when compared with seawater, with enrichment factors of 34–225 (average 125). By combining data from this study with data from other studies, we estimate that < 10% of carbohydrates in marine snow comprise NAs.There was no clear correlation between marine-snow aggregate size and NA yield, that is, there appears to be no general age difference between small and large marine-snow aggregates. NA composition was similar among different marine-snow size fracions collected during the same day, indicating that aggregation/disaggregation reactions resulted in homogenizing NA composition in marine-snow aggregates of all sizes. The NA composition of marine snow was different from that of other OM size fractions, indicating either that bacterial degradation has modified the composition of marine snow to a larger extent than other OM size fractions or that marine snow is formed through the aggregation of selected subcomponents of OM.     

Radar observations and a physical model of Asteroid 4660 Nereus, a prime space mission target

Near-Earth Asteroid 4660 Nereus has been identified as a potential spacecraft target since its 1982 discovery because of the low delta-V required for a spacecraft rendezvous. However, surprisingly little is known about its physical characteristics. Here we report Arecibo (S-band, 2380-MHz, 13-cm) and Goldstone (X-band, 8560-MHz, 3.5-cm) radar observations of Nereus during its 2002 close approach. Analysis of an extensive dataset of delay-Doppler images and continuous wave (CW) spectra yields a model that resembles an ellipsoid with principal axis dimensions X=510±20 m, Y=330±20 m and . The pole direction is approximately located at ecliptic pole longitude and latitude of λ=+25°, β=+80° with the uncertainty radius of 10°. Our modeling yields a refined rotation period of 15.16±0.04 h. Nereus has a circular polarization (SC/OC) ratio of 0.74±0.08, which implies substantial near-surface centimeter-to-decimeter scale roughness. Dynamical analysis of our model suggests that YORP alteration of the rotation period may become evident within a few years. Nereus has two stable synchronous orbits where natural material may remain in orbit, while most asteroids observed to date do not have such stable synchronous orbits. We also find that spacecraft orbits about Nereus are feasible.     

The morphology of galactic rings exterior to evolving bars: test-particle simulations

The morphology of the outer rings of early-type spiral galaxies is compared to integrations of massless collisionless particles initially in nearly circular orbits. Particles are perturbed by a quadrupolar gravitational potential corresponding to a growing and secularly evolving bar. We find that outer rings with R1R2 morphology and pseudo-rings are exhibited by the simulations even though they lack gaseous dissipation. Simulations with stronger bars form pseudo-rings earlier and more quickly than those with weaker bars. We find that the R1 ring, perpendicular to the bar, is fragile and dissolves after a few bar rotation periods if the bar pattern speed increases by more than ∼8 per cent, bar strength increases (by ≳140 per cent) after bar growth or the bar is too strong  ( Q_T > 0.3)  . If the bar slows down after formation, pseudo-ring morphology persists and the R2 ring perpendicular to the bar is populated due to resonance capture. The R2 ring remains misaligned with the bar and increases in ellipticity as the bar slows down. The R2 ring becomes scalloped and does not resemble any ringed galaxies if the bar slows down more than 3.5 per cent suggesting that bars decrease in strength before they slow down this much. We compare the morphology of our simulations to B -band images of nine ringed galaxies from the Ohio State University Bright Spiral Galaxy Survey, and we find a reasonable match in morphologies to R1R2' pseudo-rings seen within a few bar rotation periods of bar formation. Some of the features previously interpreted in terms of dissipative models may be due to transient structure associated with recent bar growth and evolution.     

Biomarkers in croakers Micropogonias furnieri (Teleostei: Sciaenidae) from polluted and non-polluted areas from the Patos Lagoon estuary (Southern Brazil): evidences of genotoxic and immunological effects

Biomarkers of exposure and effect of pollutants were analyzed in croakers Micropogonias furnieri (Teleostei: Sciaenidae) captured in winter and summer in a polluted and in a non-polluted site at the Patos Lagoon estuary (Southern Brazil). Catalase and glutathione S-transferase activities (exposure biomarkers) and lipid peroxidation (effect biomarker) were analyzed in liver samples. Other two effect biomarkers were also studied: blood cells DNA damage (through comet assay and micronucleus test) and respiratory burst measurements. In a broad view, results point to an important seasonal variation of the biochemical biomarkers analyzed. However, data obtained clearly indicate that croakers collected in winter at the polluted site were subjected to a level of clastogenic agents sufficient to generate irreversible genetic damages (mutations) and impair the fish immune system.     

Environmental variability during the Last Interglacial: a new high‐resolution pollen record from Tenaghi Philippon,Greece

A new high‐resolution Last Interglacial pollen record from the Tenaghi Philippon peatland, northeast Greece, documents variability in forest composition and cover, which we attribute to changes in temperature and moisture availability. The declining stage of the interglacial was marked by a stepwise decrease in temperate tree populations and culminated in the complete collapse of forest at the onset of the ensuing stadial. The coincidence of the onset of the stepwise declining trend with the increased prominence of North Atlantic ice‐rafting events suggests that ecological thresholds in southern Europe were only crossed once ice rafting events intensified, and implies that changes in North Atlantic ocean circulation were an important contributing factor to the declining temperate forest cover in southern Europe. Our results provide evidence for intra‐interglacial variability in the low mid latitudes and suggest a coupling between the high northern latitudes and the northeast Mediterranean during this interval. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Cut-off Lows in the South Africa region and their contribution to precipitation

The contribution of Cut-off Lows (CoLs) to precipitation and extreme rainfall frequency in South Africa has been quantified from 402 station records over the period 1979–2006. Firstly, 500 hPa CoL trajectories over Southern Africa and surrounding oceans were determined and their features thoroughly analyzed. In a second step, using daily precipitable water, outgoing long wave radiation data and station rainfall records, an area was defined where the occurrence of CoLs is associated with rainfall over South Africa. CoLs transiting in the 2.5°E–32.5°E/20°S–45°S are more likely to produce precipitation over the country. When 500 hPa CoLs are centered just off the west coast of the country (around 15°E/32.5°S) their impact is substantial in term of daily rainfall intensity and spatial coverage. CoL rainy days have been studied and it is shown that they significantly contribute to precipitation in South Africa, more strongly along the south and east coasts as well as inland, over the transition zone between the summer and winter rainfall domains where they contribute between 25 to more than 35 % of annual accumulation. At the country scale, CoL rainfall is more intense and widespread in spring than during other seasons. Over the analyzed period, a significant trend in annual CoLs’ frequency shows an increase of about 25 %. This increase is mainly realized in spring and in a lesser extent in summer. This trend is accompanied by a significant increase in the frequency of CoL rainy days specifically along the south coast and over the East of the country during the spring–summer period. In parallel, it is shown that from late spring until summer CoLs’ frequency varies significantly accordingly with large scale circulation modes of the Southern Hemisphere such as the Pacific South American pattern (PSA). This positive trend in CoLs’ frequency may be related with the positive trend in the PSA during the spring–summer period over the three last decades.     

Susceptibility of fish to Chattonella marina is determined by its tolerance to hypoxia

The harmful alga Chattonella marina has caused massive fish kills and economic losses worldwide. However, the fish kill mechanisms by C. marina have not been identified. The present study has confirmed that a significant elevation of blood osmolality is the universal response in moribund fish exposed to C. marina and the possible reasons leading to contradictory reports were identified. Both osmotic distress and respiratory impairment are important mechanisms leading to fish kill by C. marina. The susceptibility of marine fish to C. marina appears to be inversely related to their tolerance to hypoxia, with the hypoxia intolerant goldlined seabream being the most susceptible, and the hypoxia tolerant green grouper being the most tolerant to C. marina. Further studies in the marine medaka (Oryzias melastigma) showed that fish susceptibility to C. marina is directly related to susceptibility of the fish to hypoxia, but not related to its tolerance to hypersalinity stress.