Special issue: Marine and river bedforms dynamics,MARID VI

Marine and river bedforms are rhythmic features driven by unidirectional or reversing currents and waves. They are ubiquitous on the floors of rivers, estuaries, coastal and marine settings. Despite a considerable history of dedicated studies, many aspects of their origin, development and dynamics are still the subject of scientific debate in various disciplines. The MARID conferences series hosts experts from geosciences, physics, engineering and other disciplines to provide a platform for the interdisciplinary exchange of fundamental and applied knowledge of marine and river dune dynamics. MARID VI took place in April 2019 in Bremen, Germany. Related scientific contributions are presented in this special issue of Earth Surface Processes and Landforms. An overview of the conference series and the specifics of MARID VI, as well as considerations in the context of equity, diversity and inclusion, are given. This introduction highlights the progress made with the papers published in the special issue.     

Teleconnections in recent time and prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Summary The prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) is vital for Indian economic policy and a challenge for meteorologists. It needs various predictors among which El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important. It has been established by various researchers that ENSO and ISMR relationship is weakening in recent years. It has been also argued that changes in ENSO-ISMR relationship may be due to decadal fluctuations, or it may be the indicative of longer-term trends related to anthropogenic-induced climate changes.In the present communication, an attempt is made to discuss the variability and predictability of ISMR in recent years. It is found that three different indices associated with different regions in the tropics and extra-tropics at different levels of the atmosphere-Asian land mass index represented by geopotential height at upper troposphere (A1), Caribbean-North Atlantic index represented by geopotential height at middle troposphere (A2) and tropical Pacific index at surface level (A3) – have different mechanisms to interact mutually and separately with ISMR in different periods. In recent years ISMR shows weak association with A1 and A3 while strong association with A2. Thus, if these three indices could be combined objectively, they can give rise to the predictability of ISMR. This objective combination is achieved here using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and a model is developed to predict ISMR. This model has predicted reasonably well during the whole period of consideration (1958–2000) with a correlation coefficient of 0.92 in last 11 years (1990–2000) whereas most of the models fail to predict the variability in recent time.Current affiliation: Department of Physics, Federal University of Parana, Curitiba, Brazil.Received June 2002; revised October 1, 2002; accepted November 12, 2002 Published online: April 10, 2003     

What if negative emission technologies fail at scale? Implications of the Paris Agreement for big emitting nations

A cumulative emissions approach is increasingly used to inform mitigation policy. However, there are different interpretations of what ‘2°C’ implies. Here it is argued that cost-optimization models, commonly used to inform policy, typically underplay the urgency of 2°C mitigation. The alignment within many scenarios of optimistic assumptions on negative emissions technologies (NETs), with implausibly early peak emission dates and incremental short-term mitigation, delivers outcomes commensurate with 2°C commitments. In contrast, considering equity and socio-technical barriers to change, suggests a more challenging short-term agenda. To understand these different interpretations, short-term CO₂ trends of the largest CO₂ emitters, are assessed in relation to a constrained CO₂ budget, coupled with a ‘what if’ assumption that negative emissions technologies fail at scale. The outcomes raise profound questions around high-level framings of mitigation policy. The article concludes that applying even weak equity criteria, challenges the feasibility of maintaining a 50% chance of avoiding 2°C without urgent mitigation efforts in the short-term. This highlights a need for greater engagement with: (1) the equity dimension of the Paris Agreement, (2) the sensitivity of constrained carbon budgets to short-term trends and (3) the climate risks for society posed by an almost ubiquitous inclusion of NETs within 2°C scenarios.

POLICY RELEVANCE

Since the Paris meeting, there is increased awareness that most policy ‘solutions’ commensurate with 2°C include widespread deployment of negative emissions technologies (NETs). Yet much less is understood about that option’s feasibility, compared with near-term efforts to curb energy demand. Moreover, the many different ways in which key information is synthesized for policy makers, clouds the ability of policy makers to make informed decisions. This article presents an alternative approach to consider what the Paris Agreement implies, if NETs are unable to deliver more carbon sinks than sources. It illustrates the scale of the climate challenge for policy makers, particularly if the Agreement’s aim to address ‘equity’ is accounted for. Here it is argued that much more attention needs to be paid to what CO₂ reductions can be achieved in the short-term, rather than taking a risk that could render the Paris Agreement’s policy goals unachievable.     

Cosmo-SkyMed X-band SAR data for classification of ice-free areas and glacier facies on Potter Peninsula,King George Island Antarctica

The climate change phenomena have been influencing terrestrial and glacial ecosystems around the planet. Maritime Antarctica is especially sensitive to these climate variations and over the last 50 years increasing global air temperatures have caused extensive glacial retreat. The objective of this study is to evaluate the potential use of the SAR technology in monitoring the surface dynamics of the Potter Peninsula, King George Island, maritime Antarctica. An image generated by the SAR satellite COSMO-SkyMed, obtained on 2 February 2011, was used to extract the backscattering values of targets on the surface for further processing and classification, using a supervised statistic classifier of maximum likelihood for the determination of the surface classes. The average backscattering of water bodies presented high similarity, which made its separation unattainable. On the other hand, the surface classes’ bare ice and wet snow over the glacier presented distinct average backscattering values, which allowed an efficient and precise classification using only this parameter. The classification process showed satisfactory results for periglacial environments, presenting high fidelity to the field data.     

Characterization of coal maceral concentrates by curie-point pyrolysis mass spectrometry

A set of 30 maceral concentrates consisting of 5 exinites (sporinites), 14 vitrinites and 11 inertinites (fusinites and semifusinites) was analyzed by Curie-point pyrolysis mass spectrometry in combination with computerized multivariate statistical analysis techniques. Seventeen samples, representing sink/flotation concentrates of 7 different coals, were obtained through the British National Coal Board, whereas the remaining samples represent cesium-chloride density-gradient centrifugation fractions of two different U.S. coals prepared at the University of Utah.It is found that vitrinites, (semi)fusinites and, to some extent, sporinites show qualitatively similar rank-related changes, such as a decrease in dihydroxybenzene signals and an increase in napthalene signals with increasing rank. In fact, the overall pyrolysis MS patterns of inertinities show a close similarity to those of vitrinites of corresponding carbon content (as obtained from higher rank coals).Notwithstanding these similarities, however, the presence of basic differences in maceral structure is indicated by relatively minor but characteristic peak series in the liptinite (sporinite) as well as inertinite samples. Whereas inertinite spectra show relatively pronounced peak series at the high mass end of the spectrum which can be tentatively identified as representative of polynuclear aromatic compounds, sporinites are characterized by series of branched aliphatic and/or alicyclic polyenic hydrocarbons, possibly representing isoprenoids and related biomarker compounds.     

Geoarchaeology at Gilman Falls: An Archaic quarry and manufacturing site in central Maine,U.S.A.

Interdisciplinary investigations at the Milford Reservoir, central Maine, resulted in excavation and analysis of a Middle Archaic quarry and manufacturing site at Gilman Falls, dated to between 7300 and 6300 yr B.P. Lithological analysis indicates that the majority of the artifacts came from very local outcrops, providing low‐grade metamorphic rocks. Native Americans used a specialized technique to reduce the granofels and other rocks to long rods, artifacts commonly placed in local cemeteries. The Gilman Falls site was largely abandoned once these artifacts were no longer in vogue. Therefore, access to particular bedrock outcrops seems to have played an important role in site selection. Gilman Falls and other early to middle Holocene sites are preserved where bedrock sill dams ponded water that deposited fine sand. Early site sedimentation history is paralleled by a drainage change in the headwaters of the Penobscot River. Evidence for lower mid‐Holocene lake levels and a period of higher temperatures and lower precipitation may correlate with the sedimentation history. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Measuring and monitoring persistent organic pollutants in the context of risk assessment

Due to growing concerns regarding persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the environment, extensive studies and monitoring programs have been carried out in the last two decades to determine their concentrations in water, sediment, and more recently, in biota. An extensive review and analysis of the existing literature shows that whilst the vast majority of these efforts either attempt to compare (a) spatial changes (to identify "hot spots"), or (b) temporal changes to detect deterioration/improvement occurring in the environment, most studies could not provide sufficient statistical power to estimate concentrations of POPs in the environment and detect spatial and temporal changes. Despite various national POPs standards having been established, there has been a surprising paucity of emphasis in establishing accurate threshold concentrations that indicate potential significant threats to ecosystems and public health. Although most monitoring programs attempt to check compliance through reference to certain "environmental quality objectives", it should be pointed out that many of these established standards are typically associated with a large degree of uncertainty and rely on a large number of assumptions, some of which may be arbitrary. Non-compliance should trigger concern, so that the problem can be tracked down and rectified, but non-compliance must not be interpreted in a simplistic and mechanical way. Contaminants occurring in the physical environment may not necessarily be biologically available, and even when they are bioavailable, they may not necessarily elicit adverse biological effects at the individual or population levels. As such, we here argue that routine monitoring and reporting of abiotic and biotic POPs concentrations could be of limited use, unless such data can be related directly to the assessment of public health and ecological risks. Risk can be inferred from the ratio of predicted environmental concentration (PEC) and the predicted no effect concentration (PNEC). Currently, the paucity of data does not allow accurate estimation of PNEC, and future endeavors should therefore, be devoted to determine the threshold concentrations of POPs that can cause undesirable biological effects on sensitive receivers and important biological components in the receiving environment (e.g. keystone species, populations with high energy flow values, etc.), to enable derivation of PNECs based on solid scientific evidence and reduce uncertainty. Using the threshold body burden of POPs required to elicit damages of lysosomal integrity in the green mussel (Perna virvidis) as an example, we illustrate how measurement of POPs in body tissue could be used in predicting environmental risk in a meaningful way.     

Climate-driven migration: prioritizing cultural resources threatened by secondary impacts of climate change

Natural Hazards - Archaeological sites are increasingly threatened by primary impacts of climate change, including sea-level rise, flooding, and erosion. These important sites represent cultural...     

Projected future changes in tropical cyclone-related wave climate in the North Atlantic

Tropical cyclones are a major hazard for numerous countries surrounding the tropical-to-subtropical North Atlantic sub-basin including the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. Their intense winds, which can exceed 300 km h⁻¹, can cause serious damage, particularly along coastlines where the combined action of waves, currents and low atmospheric pressure leads to storm surge and coastal flooding. This work presents future projections of North Atlantic tropical cyclone-related wave climate. A new configuration of the ARPEGE-Climat global atmospheric model on a stretched grid reaching ~ 14 km resolution to the north-east of the eastern Caribbean is able to reproduce the distribution of tropical cyclone winds, including Category 5 hurricanes. Historical (1984–2013, 5 members) and future (2051–2080, 5 members) simulations with the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario are used to drive the MFWAM (Météo-France Wave Action Model) spectral wave model over the Atlantic basin during the hurricane season. An intermediate 50-km resolution grid is used to propagate mid-latitude swells into a higher 10-km resolution grid over the tropical cyclone main development region. Wave model performance is evaluated over the historical period with the ERA5 reanalysis and satellite altimetry data. Future projections exhibit a modest but widespread reduction in seasonal mean wave heights in response to weakening subtropical anticyclone, yet marked increases in tropical cyclone-related wind sea and extreme wave heights within a large region extending from the African coasts to the North American continent.